Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year (Read 202861 times)

redneck · « **Reply #220 on:** 05/17/2023 09:34 pm »

Quote from: Barley on 05/17/2023 08:09 pm

Quote from: redneck on 05/17/2023 03:19 pm
Over 3,000 in we’ll under a year. V2/A4
Estes beats that like a drum.

Exactly what's the criteria here?

in the context of this discussion, it's clearly orbital. Specifically orbital hardware that serves a function. Debris that happens to be in orbit shouldn't count. The V2/A4 was supposed to be a joke.

xyv · « **Reply #221 on:** 05/18/2023 12:40 am »

Quote from: wannamoonbase on 05/17/2023 02:54 pm

It seems like a bit of a sleeper but I love the Vandy flights, especially when foggy.

The ASDS cycle time seems shorter on the west coast and the weather and sea stability seems more reliable as well.

All in all, have it from the West Coast

ASDS is based ~200km down range in Long Beach. Quicker to get to and from the recovery zone and the booster gets trucked the rest of the way back. From my location you can see why I also love the Vandenberg flights.

Vahe231991 · « **Reply #222 on:** 05/18/2023 02:32 am »

Quote from: redneck on 05/17/2023 03:19 pm

Over 3,000 in we’ll under a year. V2/A4

I strongly doubt that there'll be over 3,000 launches involving SpaceX rockets this year, even if the level of activity by SpaceX will ensure that 2023 also sees another record number of space launches.

darkenfast · « **Reply #223 on:** 05/18/2023 07:42 am »

Quote from: xyv on 05/18/2023 12:40 am

Quote from: wannamoonbase on 05/17/2023 02:54 pm
It seems like a bit of a sleeper but I love the Vandy flights, especially when foggy.

The ASDS cycle time seems shorter on the west coast and the weather and sea stability seems more reliable as well.

All in all, have it from the West Coast

ASDS is based ~200km down range in Long Beach. Quicker to get to an from the recovery zone and the booster gets trucked the rest of the way back. From my location you can see why I also love the Vandenberg flights.

Liked for the 200 km downrange, but I think lately, they seem to be barging more stuff from Long Beach Harbor to Vandenburg. I would assume there are a lot of headaches involved in getting permits and slogging oversize stuff across the L.A. area

catdlr · « **Reply #224 on:** 05/18/2023 07:46 am »

Quote from: darkenfast on 05/18/2023 07:42 am

Quote from: xyv on 05/18/2023 12:40 am
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 05/17/2023 02:54 pm
It seems like a bit of a sleeper but I love the Vandy flights, especially when foggy.

The ASDS cycle time seems shorter on the west coast and the weather and sea stability seems more reliable as well.

All in all, have it from the West Coast

ASDS is based ~200km down range in Long Beach. Quicker to get to an from the recovery zone and the booster gets trucked the rest of the way back. From my location you can see why I also love the Vandenberg flights.

Liked for the 200 km downrange, but I think lately, they seem to be barging more stuff from Long Beach Harbor to Vandenburg. I would assume there are a lot of headaches involved in getting permits and slogging oversize stuff across the L.A. area

It's not the LA area, it's having to go north to Bakersfield and across and come down from Santa Maria. It's a long haul. There is a map posted somewhere in the SpaceX treads. I can see why using the barge and the dock at Vandy so much easier. (I live in LA).

xyv · « **Reply #225 on:** 05/19/2023 12:52 am »

Must say I haven't followed the road route. Any way you slice it, you have to cross LA. I assume the Hwy 5 detour is because of a Hwy 101 restriction?

alugobi · « **Reply #226 on:** 05/31/2023 04:16 pm »

Scorecard through May

xyv · « **Reply #227 on:** 06/01/2023 01:06 am »

And right back at ya without counting the SS launch (my rules from the start of thread). May update (and at top of thread with evolving spread sheet) still shows the same linear slope fit, intercpting year end at ~85. The spread sheet has other graphs with the curve fits.

kevin-rf · « **Reply #228 on:** 06/01/2023 11:17 am »

Really comes down to if they can up the rate at LC-39A. I feel they have hit their stride on SLC-4E. Someone needs to be testing SLC-40 for steroids. That pad is on fire!

spacenut · « **Reply #229 on:** 06/01/2023 12:06 pm »

Isn't 39A being worked on for Starship? Also pad 40 is to have back up tower built for human launches in case Starship explodes on the pad and damages 39A.

Seems like they could use another pad on the east coast somewhere.

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #230 on:** 06/01/2023 01:39 pm »

Quote from: spacenut on 06/01/2023 12:06 pm

Isn't 39A being worked on for Starship? Also pad 40 is to have back up tower built for human launches in case Starship explodes on the pad and damages 39A.

Seems like they could use another pad on the east coast somewhere.

Another ASDS would be more helpful than another pad.

LC39A doesn’t need to work much harder if SLC40 can keep two ASDS busy with a 5 day launch cadence

VSFB could maybe increase a little bit.

kevin-rf · « **Reply #231 on:** 06/01/2023 02:49 pm »

August will take a hit when both ASDS's are needed to support Echostar 24.

spacenut · « **Reply #232 on:** 06/01/2023 03:56 pm »

Yep, another ASDS may be less expensive to operate than another pad.

kevin-rf · « **Reply #233 on:** 06/01/2023 05:42 pm »

The tempo at both SLC-40 and SLC-4E appear to have picked up over the last month. Day's between launches at SLC-40 have gone down further. SLC-4E is now out performing the trend line.

Sadly, LC-39A is losing ground compared to 2022. At this time last year it was at 8 vs. the current 6 for 2023.

Disclaimer, a couple of launches do not make a trend. This does looking promising.

kevin-rf · « **Reply #234 on:** 06/02/2023 07:08 pm »

Wow, the improvement at SLC-4E is something...

(the high days in 2021 was 297 days and the one launch in 2020 was 528 days)

For fun, all three pads side by side

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #235 on:** 06/05/2023 07:08 am »

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1665564615344902147

Quote

@elonmusk's 100 launches plan as of Jun 4, 2023

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #236 on:** 06/05/2023 07:34 pm »

Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 06/05/2023 07:08 am

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1665564615344902147

Quote
@elonmusk's 100 launches plan as of Jun 4, 2023

Fun graphic, but it seems there will be likely 5 FH's

Me personally, I don't count Starship until if/when it's orbital. Maybe it's easier to say I don't count test flights.

The current flight cadence is amazing, they need to increase 1-2 flights per month, which seems to be hard to do, it's pushing up against ASDS availability and launch delays like weather.

It's pretty wild the things they are doing to increase flight cadence, like the smaller MVac nozzle and switching flights from east and west coasts.

DanClemmensen · « **Reply #237 on:** 06/05/2023 07:45 pm »

Quote from: wannamoonbase on 06/05/2023 07:34 pm

Fun graphic, but it seems there will be likely 5 FH's

The graphic shows 2 FH already launched (not black silhouettes) and three FH yet to be launched (black silhouettes).

Quote

Me personally, I don't count Starship until if/when it's orbital. Maybe it's easier to say I don't count test flights.

But what did Elon mean when he made the "100 launches" statement?

wannamoonbase · « **Reply #238 on:** 06/05/2023 07:59 pm »

Quote from: DanClemmensen on 06/05/2023 07:45 pm

Quote from: wannamoonbase on 06/05/2023 07:34 pm
Fun graphic, but it seems there will be likely 5 FH's
The graphic shows 2 FH already launched (not black silhouettes) and three FH yet to be launched (black silhouettes).
Quote
Me personally, I don't count Starship until if/when it's orbital. Maybe it's easier to say I don't count test flights.
But what did Elon mean when he made the "100 launches" statement?

Ah yes, there they are hiding amoung the F9's, my bad.

What did Elon mean, I think it was, 'Push as hard as you can and fly as many times as possible, can you do 100, it's a stretch, but can you do it?'

Edit: But my god, that's so many launches!

alugobi · « **Reply #239 on:** 06/05/2023 10:42 pm »

Quote

what did Elon mean

We ask that a lot around here.