SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year

[Comga]

And now back to our story of  "SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year"
Depending on how you measure, today or tomorrow is the end of the first third of 2023, so it's a good time to check in.

Here is another way to look at it.
A few posts back is  my method for calculating the pace of the last ten launches.
Take the date and time of the most recent launch, and subtract the date and time of the 11th preceding launch, which gives the sum of the last ten intervals between launches. 
Divide that by ten for the average interval of the last ten launches. 
Divide THAT into 365 days and get the average pace in launches per year.
This is one estimate of the number of lauches in 2023, which is pretty reasonable for early in the year.

For a better estimate take the number of launches so far in 2023. 
Divide the remaining days in the year by the most recent average pace for the number of launches that would occur at that pace. 
Add that projection to the current tally for a second projection.

These should diverge as time goes on if the pace accelerates but it turns out the two are still pretty similar after one third of the year
Ann it seems to be settling in the mid 80's, quite a bit short of 100.
But we shall see.....
 

[gsa]

Depending on how you measure, today or tomorrow is the end of the first third of 2023, so it's a good time to check in.

For a better estimate take the number of launches so far in 2023. 
Divide the remaining days in the year by the most recent average pace for the number of launches that would occur at that pace. 
Add that projection to the current tally for a second projection.

And it seems to be settling in the mid 80's, quite a bit short of 100.
But we shall see.....

Let's try and check this method on 2022. There were 17 launches before May. For the last of them the average pace was ~54. So, it gives us 17 + 54 * 2/3 = 53. It's 8 less than the actual total.
Actual launch pace of 2022 overtook 55 l/y (~90% of the final number) only in June July.

[alugobi]

Scorecard through April

[RoadWithoutEnd]

I'd be interested in seeing a few charks, if any of you fallas have the means:

1.  Comparing F9 (block 5 FR) cadence growth since debut with others since debut.

2.  Comparing Dragon with Soyuz and Senzhou cadence in similar terms.

Feel free to speculate on asymptotes.

[xyv]

These should diverge as time goes on if the pace accelerates but it turns out the two are still pretty similar after one third of the year
Ann it seems to be settling in the mid 80's, quite a bit short of 100.
But we shall see.....

And the linear curve fit of launches to date has not ventured outside of 84 - 85 total launches for the  year for at least two months.  Comparing with a straight line to 60 from last year, they are further away than at anytime last year (latest graph at top of thread).

Past perfromance is no gaurantee of future results etc...

[Robotbeat]

import numpy as np
from scipy.optimize import fsolve

from scipy.integrate import quad

daysinto2023 = 31+28+31+30+1
timenow = 1+daysinto2023/365 #time in years since Jan 1, 2022
print("How many days has it been since the start of 2023:", daysinto2023)

launchesnow = 29 #launches that there has been from Jan 1, 2023 until now
print("How many launches has there been since the start of 2023:", launchesnow)
def equation(b,timenow,launchesnow):
    return (61/(np.exp(b) - 1))*(np.exp(b*(timenow)) - np.exp(b)) - launchesnow

b = fsolve(equation, 0.5,args=(timenow,launchesnow))
print("b:",b)

A = b*61/(np.exp(b) -1)
print("A:",A)

def integrand(t,A,b):
    return A*np.exp(b*t)

result, error = quad(integrand, 1, 2,args=(A,b))

print("The estimated number of launches in 2023:", result)

The estimated number of launches in 2023: 106.67206531644885

Well as of today, with 29 total launches (including Starship/Superheavy IFT), 61 flights last year, then they're on track for over 100 total launches (~107 as of now) through the end of 2023, assuming compounding improvement fitted to those two facts.

[meekGee]

import numpy as np
from scipy.optimize import fsolve

from scipy.integrate import quad

daysinto2023 = 31+28+31+30+1
timenow = 1+daysinto2023/365 #time in years since Jan 1, 2022
print("How many days has it been since the start of 2023:", daysinto2023)

launchesnow = 29 #launches that there has been from Jan 1, 2023 until now
print("How many launches has there been since the start of 2023:", launchesnow)
def equation(b,timenow,launchesnow):
    return (61/(np.exp(b) - 1))*(np.exp(b*(timenow)) - np.exp(b)) - launchesnow

b = fsolve(equation, 0.5,args=(timenow,launchesnow))
print("b:",b)

A = b*61/(np.exp(b) -1)
print("A:",A)

def integrand(t,A,b):
    return A*np.exp(b*t)

result, error = quad(integrand, 1, 2,args=(A,b))

print("The estimated number of launches in 2023:", result)

The estimated number of launches in 2023: 106.67206531644885

Well as of today, with 29 total launches (including Starship/Superheavy IFT), 61 flights last year, then they're on track for over 100 launches (~107 as of now), assuming compounding improvement fitted to those two facts.

What's the prediction if you factor in the last 365 days (or any significant reach back into 2022)?

This will help see if there was a noticeable bump between December and January.

If there was, you'll get higher predictions, right?

[kevin-rf]

Decided to look at pad usage again. For 2023, SpaceX is currently trending towards the low 90's.

SLC-40 is just impressive. So far 17 of 70 (by my count) space launches have started from SLC-40. 24% of all launches and 53% of all SpaceX launches!!!

Btw. Decided for fun to graph SLC-40 turn around time. Very interesting how it has tightened up.
Edit: As an aside, the big hole is the graph is the 136 days between Transporter 2 and Starlink 4-1.

[kevin-rf]

SLC-4E is currently trending towards 25 or 26 launches while LC-39A is behind it's 2022 launch rate. With all the Dragon and Heavy launches, LC-39A is far enough behind I even deleted the trend line. With all the special mission, prediction is just nonsensical. 

With Axiom Mission 2 and CRS SpX-28 I do think LC-39A will shortly catch up. Then fall behind prepping for USSF-52 and  EchoStar 24.

[Robotbeat]

As of the 16th of May, they’ve had 32 launches so far. On track for 101.8 launches this year given a gradually but continuously improving launch rate (not saying any particular rate, just saying something about the form of the equation) and 61 launches last year.

You can see all kinds of signs of continued compounding launch rate improvement, from that short nozzle, to the RTLS landing for Axiom-2 coming up, to the announced increase in booster production to meet Falcon Heavy launch needs, to the certification of boosters for 20 launches, to readying Starship for another launch in a few months.

Improvement in launch rate is a much more reasonable assumption than assuming constant launch rate and no additional improvement.

[Vultur]

And even if they don't make 100, 85 or 90 launches in a year would have sounded completely ridiculous not that long ago.

What is the record for most launches by one rocket type/family in a year?

[Robotbeat]

80-something for R7/Soyuz, I think.

EDIT: No, it was 64 for R7/Soyuz in 1980. Falcon will beat that this year.

[wannamoonbase]

SLC-4E is currently trending towards 25 or 26 launches while LC-39A is behind it's 2022 launch rate. With all the Dragon and Heavy launches, LC-39A is far enough behind I even deleted the trend line. With all the special mission, prediction is just nonsensical. 

With Axiom Mission 2 and CRS SpX-28 I do think LC-39A will shortly catch up. Then fall behind prepping for USSF-52 and  EchoStar 24.

26 flights out of VSFB would be an incredible ramp up from where they were a few years ago.

It seems like a bit of a sleeper but I love the Vandy flights, especially when foggy. 

The ASDS cycle time seems shorter on the west coast and the weather and sea stability seems more reliable as well. 

All in all, have it from the West Coast

[redneck]

Over 3,000 in we’ll under a year.   V2/A4

[Robotbeat]

Over 3,000 in we’ll under a year.   V2/A4

I don’t think suborbital munitions should count. Lots of missiles have flown in large numbers in conflicts, such as SCUDs in Afghanistan and of course solid rockets for hundreds of years.

[redneck]

I agree.   It was just too good a straight line to pass up 😊

[Zed_Noir]

Over 3,000 in we’ll under a year.   V2/A4

I don’t think suborbital munitions should count. Lots of missiles have flown in large numbers in conflicts, such as SCUDs in Afghanistan and of course solid rockets for hundreds of years.

Only munitions launch to orbit should count. Which isn't that many that is publicly acknowledge, if any.

[alugobi]

The ASDS cycle time seems shorter on the west coast and the weather and sea stability seems more reliable as well. 

It is now.

Not earlier this year with the rain, wind, and snow that no one alive can ever remember there was.

[Barley]

Over 3,000 in we’ll under a year.   V2/A4

Estes beats that like a drum.

Exactly what's the criteria here?

[niwax]

Over 3,000 in we’ll under a year.   V2/A4

I don’t think suborbital munitions should count. Lots of missiles have flown in large numbers in conflicts, such as SCUDs in Afghanistan and of course solid rockets for hundreds of years.

Only munitions launch to orbit should count. Which isn't that many that is publicly acknowledge, if any.

OTOH, I'm pretty certain it holds the record for handling cryogenics. Most later munitions don't require LOX tankers.