Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year (Read 202852 times)

FutureSpaceTourist · « **Reply #140 on:** 03/20/2023 03:42 pm »

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1637856860190433284

Quote

Provided there is no serious launch anomaly, SpaceX will deliver 80% of Earth’s payload to orbit this year.

Not counting Starship.

ZachF · « **Reply #141 on:** 03/21/2023 12:17 pm »

Looks like you’ll have spacex not only beating the rest of the world combined, but individual launch pads doing it as well.

I guess when SS ramps up I wouldn’t be surprised to see individual boosters beat the rest of the world combined…

kevin-rf · « **Reply #142 on:** 03/24/2023 10:38 pm »

Sigh....

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1639396253896257536?t=AQnom7oJGVIkcUV_8eIOFQ&s=19

abaddon · « **Reply #143 on:** 03/25/2023 02:20 am »

Why sigh? 90 would be a mind-boggling achievement.

Nomadd · « **Reply #144 on:** 03/25/2023 04:57 am »

I mean this with all respect but, this is a dumbass thread and should die.

ZachS09 · « **Reply #145 on:** 03/25/2023 12:29 pm »

I had an inkling from the beginning that SpaceX would not achieve a minimum of 100 launches this year.

It’s inevitable because of the random delays that happen, at least from my perspective.

Comga · « **Reply #146 on:** 03/25/2023 02:45 pm »

Quote from: Nomadd on 03/25/2023 04:57 am

I mean this with all respect but, this is a dumbass thread and should die.

It’s not clear that its dumbassity is more than other threads and what else are we supposed to do with these boring five day intervals between SpaceX launches?

It’s sort of the Rocket equivalent of “Waiting for Godot”.
“He said he’d launch 100 times this year.”
“But he’s not on track for it!”
“I’m sure he will. Let’s wait a little longer.”

Robotbeat · « **Reply #147 on:** 03/25/2023 04:16 pm »

Quote from: ZachS09 on 03/25/2023 12:29 pm

I had an inkling from the beginning that SpaceX would not achieve a minimum of 100 launches this year.

It’s inevitable because of the random delays that happen, at least from my perspective.

LOL, why we acting like they’ve already failed?

AmigaClone · « **Reply #148 on:** 03/25/2023 05:44 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/25/2023 04:16 pm

Quote from: ZachS09 on 03/25/2023 12:29 pm
I had an inkling from the beginning that SpaceX would not achieve a minimum of 100 launches this year.

It’s inevitable because of the random delays that happen, at least from my perspective.
LOL, why we acting like they’ve already failed?

Maybe because they are used to western launch providers that, in the 21st century, rarely - if ever - managed to launch 20 orbital launch vehicles in a year.

Granted, it could be because they were expecting a cadence from 1 January 2023 of an orbital launch every 3.6 days on average. Today is 25 March 2023 the 84th day of the year with the year being 23% complete. So far, SpaceX has only managed to launch 20 times. Most other years, SpaceX has increased their pace as the year has gone on.

ZachS09 · « **Reply #149 on:** 03/25/2023 07:38 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 03/25/2023 04:16 pm

Quote from: ZachS09 on 03/25/2023 12:29 pm
I had an inkling from the beginning that SpaceX would not achieve a minimum of 100 launches this year.

It’s inevitable because of the random delays that happen, at least from my perspective.
LOL, why we acting like they’ve already failed?

I never said SpaceX already failed.

I was taking into account unfavorable weather that could arise prior to a certain launch (thunderstorms or upper level winds), additional prelaunch checks needed just hours before launch, priority of external customers over Starlink, and last-second aborts due to technical issues.

Robotbeat · « **Reply #150 on:** 03/25/2023 09:32 pm »

Yeah, agreed they’ll have to overcome that and more, but that doesn’t mean they won’t reach they goal. They’ll likely have to be launching at least once every three days on average by the end of the year.

xyv · « **Reply #151 on:** 03/25/2023 11:39 pm »

Wow. "...is a dumbass thread and should die...", "...I had an inkling from the beginning that SpaceX..."

If the thread became dumbass it's the chatter about curve fitting and "they're never going to make it" that has (somewhat) dominated. Pesonally, I am getting more enjoyment from both of these diversions than I ever had a right to expect. This is just scorekeeping - and the first quarter is not even done! Look at the comparsion from last year...sometimes they were behind, sometimes just about on, almost never ahead.

I will continue to update the graph at the top of the thread every month and enjoy the diversions, assuming the 'dumbassery' doesn't get the thead killed

ZachS09 · « **Reply #152 on:** 03/26/2023 12:13 am »

Quote from: xyv on 03/25/2023 11:39 pm

Wow. "...is a dumbass thread and should die...", "...I had an inkling from the beginning that SpaceX..."

If the thread became dumbass, it's the chatter about curve fitting and "they're never going to make it" that has (somewhat) dominated. Personally, I am getting more enjoyment from both of these diversions than I ever had a right to expect. This is just scorekeeping and the first quarter is not even done! Look at the comparison from last year. Sometimes they were behind, sometimes just about on, almost never ahead.

I will continue to update the graph at the top of the thread every month and enjoy the diversions, assuming the 'dumbassery' doesn't get the thread killed

I'll try not to inadvertently lock the thread.

spacenut · « **Reply #153 on:** 03/26/2023 02:28 pm »

I for one, like the chart showing the progress. Probably should be what the thread is all about. Not other discussions. Keep charting. Thanks.

kevin-rf · « **Reply #154 on:** 03/26/2023 04:30 pm »

While I agree. Taking the time to break them out by pad was very telling. I will update the three graphs after the next set of launches. I'm very curious about SLC-40 and SLC-4E.

SLC-40 to see if they can keep up the temp[o]. SLC-4E to see if they can ramp to a higher rate. LC-39A rate is shackled by Heavy and Dragon.

So to me, the question is what will Starlink do?

Looking at the manifest, SpaceX has 43 non Starlink launches left in 2023. Some will slip into 2024.
That leaves 27 Starlink out of the "70+" for 2023.
They flew 34 Starlink mission (worth double checking my math) in 2022. They have flown 10 so far this year and if you include yet to launch 5-10, 11 for Q1.
So that would work out to 44 Starlink missions for 2023.
27, 34, 44?

The final number will be interesting.

[zubenelgenubi: spelling edit for clarity]

xyv · « **Reply #155 on:** 04/01/2023 12:02 am »

End of the first quarter. 21 launches - shy of 25 but the year is yet young. Updated graph and spread sheet posted at the top of the thread.

alugobi · « **Reply #156 on:** 04/01/2023 12:46 am »

End of March

Robotbeat · « **Reply #157 on:** 04/01/2023 01:02 am »

Quote from: alugobi on 04/01/2023 12:46 am

End of March

Okay, now you're just teasing me lol.

Using my previous method from here: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=58240.msg2466409#msg2466409

((b*61/(e^(b) -1))/b)*(e^(b*(1+(31+28+31)/365)) - e^b) = 21., solve for b, gets us to b = ~0.554712 (1/year)
A =0.554712*61/(e^(0.554712) -1) = 45.6374897312 launches/year (that being the instantaneous annualized launch rate at Jan 1st, 2022), so, they're on track for:
integral(45.6374897312*e^(0.554712*t),t,1,2) = 106.228 launches in 2023. (Note this is better than last time I estimated, where it was hovering around 100 launches in 2023... so they've more than caught up to the rate-of-compounding-improvement needed to meet 100 launches in 2023.)

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=integral%2845.6374897312*e%5E%280.554712*t%29%2Ct%2C1%2C2%29

This basically just uses the past number of launches in 2022 (61 launches, 365 days), the number of launches (21) and days (31, 28, 31) there as been since the start of 2023, and the idea that the overall launch rate is improving at some compounding rate which fits these data points (which seems reasonable to me, especially compared to just assuming it's a constant value that arbitrarily changes on January 1st). A full least-squares type fit would be better, but this is easier for me as I'm sick of messing with weirdly formatted spreadsheets.

(Note in this graph, "1.0" corresponds with the start of 2023, 2.0 with the end of 2023, and the y axis is the instantaneous annual launch rate.)

meekGee · « **Reply #158 on:** 04/01/2023 06:55 pm »

Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/01/2023 01:02 am

Quote from: alugobi on 04/01/2023 12:46 am
End of March
Okay, now you're just teasing me lol.

Using my previous method from here: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=58240.msg2466409#msg2466409

((b*61/(e^(b) -1))/b)*(e^(b*(1+(31+28+31)/365)) - e^b) = 21., solve for b, gets us to b = ~0.554712 (1/year)
A =0.554712*61/(e^(0.554712) -1) = 45.6374897312 launches/year (that being the instantaneous annualized launch rate at Jan 1st, 2022), so, they're on track for:
integral(45.6374897312*e^(0.554712*t),t,1,2) = 106.228 launches in 2023. (Note this is better than last time I estimated, where it was hovering around 100 launches in 2023... so they've more than caught up to the rate-of-compounding-improvement needed to meet 100 launches in 2023.)

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=integral%2845.6374897312*e%5E%280.554712*t%29%2Ct%2C1%2C2%29

This basically just uses the past number of launches in 2022 (61 launches, 365 days), the number of launches (21) and days (31, 28, 31) there as been since the start of 2023, and the idea that the overall launch rate is improving at some compounding rate which fits these data points (which seems reasonable to me, especially compared to just assuming it's a constant value that arbitrarily changes on January 1st). A full least-squares type fit would be better, but this is easier for me as I'm sick of messing with weirdly formatted spreadsheets.

(Note in this graph, "1.0" corresponds with the start of 2023, 2.0 with the end of 2023, and the y axis is the instantaneous annual launch rate.)

I'm going to turn on my laptop so that I can like this post.

kevin-rf · « **Reply #159 on:** 04/02/2023 01:37 am »

On your tablet/phone you can hit the full site button, like, then click the mobil link at the bottom to get back to mobil view.

I have done that on occasion.