Poll

Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?

New Glenn + Jarvis
2 (2.9%)
Terran-R
1 (1.5%)
Neutron
2 (2.9%)
MLV-Beta
0 (0%)
Starship
58 (85.3%)
Stoke Launcher
1 (1.5%)
Other
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 68

Voting closed: 01/14/2024 05:26 am


Author Topic: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?  (Read 3686 times)

Offline Tywin

Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« on: 01/10/2023 05:26 am »
When these rockets are operational, which will be the cheapest per kg in LEO orbit?

Other* specificated in the comments...
« Last Edit: 01/10/2023 05:27 am by Tywin »
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Online AmigaClone

Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #1 on: 01/10/2023 06:38 am »
When these rockets are operational, which will be the cheapest per kg in LEO orbit?

Other* specificated in the comments...

I would specify - base price for an external commercial customer. The reason for that is that I suspect that for external customers SpaceX might charge X for a certain mass launched on Starship. On the other hand, it would launch Starlink and other 'internal projects' at a much lower expense which would more closely reflect the cost of launching Starship as opposed to what the market can handle.

Offline DeimosDream

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Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #2 on: 01/11/2023 12:14 am »
Starship 100%.

The real question isn't if Starship will be the cheapest bulk rate, but how much cheaper?

SpaceX could choose to sell Starship to customers as a Falcon Heavy replacement/alternative at $96M, and with a 100T LEO payload $960/kg would not only be unbeatable but leave SpaceX margin to lower their rate if anyone tried.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2023 03:52 pm by DeimosDream »

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #3 on: 01/11/2023 01:38 am »
The question is "when"? If all of these launchers become fully operational, then Starship wins on $/kg for a maximum mass payload. depending on a lot of variables, it may even win on absolute launch cost for any payload, due to economies of scale. SpaceX is a for-profit company and they are likely to end up in a dominate position. If so, they can (and by free-market economics should) set prices to just below what the competition is charging.

There are currently no payloads that need an entire Starship, so the existing launch industry environment provides little guidance. This implies that Starship will initially launch new types of payload (Tanker, Deport, HLS) and shared "transporter" mixed payloads. The $/kg for an individual customer on a mixed payload is subject to so many variables that it is probably meaningless.

My GUESS: Starship will launch first and suck up all the business. The other launchers will only get the "anybody but SpaceX" payloads and any other customers (e.g., governments) that direct certain payloads to use specific launchers.

Offline su27k

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Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #4 on: 01/11/2023 02:29 am »
Another poll with very ambiguous wording.

What is the kg? Theoretical maximum payload? Demonstrated maximum payload? The payload for a particular launch? Government or commercial or rideshare?

What is the $? Theoretical minimal price? Published price? Demonstrated minimal price? Price for a particular launch associated with the "kg"?

Offline TrevorMonty

Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #5 on: 01/11/2023 04:58 pm »


Another poll with very ambiguous wording.

What is the kg? Theoretical maximum payload? Demonstrated maximum payload? The payload for a particular launch? Government or commercial or rideshare?

What is the $? Theoretical minimal price? Published price? Demonstrated minimal price? Price for a particular launch associated with the "kg"?

Need different orbits/missions.
Need to specify LVs.

Offline lightleviathan

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Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #6 on: 01/14/2023 05:55 pm »
In my opinion, it will be Stoke's launcher. It will have the lowest operational and fuel costs in my opinion. The 2nd place winner would have to be FR New Glenn. Higher energy than the other launchers, including Starship.

Offline hkultala

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Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #7 on: 03/05/2023 05:12 am »
Starship will be cheapest/kg because it's very big and carry huge loads, but:

Stoke will be cheapest for most missions, because each launch is cheaper than starship launch and starship will be oversized for most missions.


Offline laszlo

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Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #8 on: 03/05/2023 11:00 am »
When these rockets are operational, which will be the cheapest per kg in LEO orbit?

*If* these rockets ever become operational...

Another poll counting its chickens before they hatch.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: Who will be cheaper per kg in orbit?
« Reply #9 on: 03/05/2023 11:25 am »
Starship will be cheapest/kg because it's very big and carry huge loads, but:

Stoke will be cheapest for most missions, because each launch is cheaper than starship launch and starship will be oversized for most missions.
Provided of course all of that payload is used.
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