SpaceX F9 : EROS C3 #1 : Vandenberg : 29/30 December 2022 (07:38 UTC)

[raptorx2]

NGA notice.  Note that the Primary Day is December 30 UTC (December 29 PST), not December 29 UTC.

LHA map from the NGA notice. The coordinates are in a strange order, and not grouped into areas in the usual way. Assuming I have interpreted them correctly, LHA B. for fairing recovery and/or failed boostback burn is about 380km downrange.

I thought EROS C3-1 is supposed to be in a 510km SSO?

[OneSpeed]

I thought EROS C3-1 is supposed to be in a 510km SSO?

Perhaps there will be a substantial second stage dogleg as per SWOT?

[Galactic Penguin SST]

I thought EROS C3-1 is supposed to be in a 510km SSO?

Perhaps there will be a substantial second stage dogleg as per SWOT?

More likely this is going to a retrograde orbit as with all those Israeli spysats (the Ofeq series), due to drop zone restrictions from Israel they all reside in 141-143 degrees inclination orbits, and this drop zone seems to fit with it too.

[Comga]

I thought EROS C3-1 is supposed to be in a 510km SSO?

Perhaps there will be a substantial second stage dogleg as per SWOT?

More likely this is going to a retrograde orbit as with all those Israeli spysats (the Ofeq series), due to drop zone restrictions from Israel they all reside in 141-143 degrees inclination orbits, and this drop zone seems to fit with it too.

The retrograde orbits of satellites launched from Israel is a defect motivated by geopolitical concerns.
This implies that it has become a feature worthy of replicating when it is no longer necessary.
Why would that be?
Synchronization with the on-orbit Ofeq satellites?

(It is not a serious suggestion that because Hebrew is written from right to left that the Israelis launch from right to left.😉)

[raptorx2]

I thought EROS C3-1 is supposed to be in a 510km SSO?

Perhaps there will be a substantial second stage dogleg as per SWOT?

Starlink V2.0 ITU approved at 148-degree inclination?  They only need 2 on-orbit VBand for ITU Spectrum Priority to beat Kuiper launch in Feb.

[OceanCat]

I thought EROS C3-1 is supposed to be in a 510km SSO?

Perhaps there will be a substantial second stage dogleg as per SWOT?

Starlink V2.0 ITU approved at 148-degree inclination?  They only need 2 on-orbit VBand for ITU Spectrum Priority to beat Kuiper launch in Feb.

They only applied for Ku, Ka, and E-band at 148-degree inclination with ITU.

[catdlr]

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
5:25 AM
to launch-alert

A Falcon 9 rocket carrying an Israeli satellite may take place from Vandenberg Space Force Base late Thursday evening (December 29). The vehicle is tentatively scheduled to lift off from the south base at 22:58 (10:58 p.m.) PST and carry the EROS C3 Earth imaging spacecraft into orbit. Plans call for the rocket's first stage to return to Vandenberg and touch down in Landing Zone 4. If the sky is clear, the launch could be visible for hundreds of miles.

There is uncertainty about whether this launch is actually scheduled for Thursday evening. One official public source says it is, but another official public source does not mention it. It is possible the launch may not be officially scheduled until later today or tomorrow.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1608113291263361027

Final SpaceX launch of 2022!

West Coast fairing recovery ship NRC Quest is underway for the EROS-C3 mission. Booster will return and land at LZ-4.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/hkpmsn/status/1608136167287062529

Forecast for visibility of tomorrow Dec 29th 10:58pm PST launch of EROC-C3 from SLC-4E and RTLS at LZ-4 has improved significantly. 32% low clouds but still about 22% chance of rain about 1/8th in/hr

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/raul74cz/status/1608219810915049473

LHA map for #EROS C3-1 mission from VSFB SLC-4E NET 30 Dec 06:58 UTC, alternatively 01 to 04 Jan based on issued NOTMAR. Retrograde launch azimuth. LZ-4 landing for booster 1061.11. Estimated fairing recovery position approximately 388km downrange. https://bit.do/LHA22

[gongora]

Replacement NOTMAR adds the 31st (UTC) as a backup day

[gongora]

Alex pointed out that this looks suspiciously like something for EROS C3, and it might make total sense if you just replace the words "Rocket Launching" with "Space Debris".

282311Z DEC 22
NAVAREA IV 1403/22(24,25,51).
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, ROCKET LAUNCHING
   300822Z TO 301120Z DEC 22, ALTERNATE
   0822Z TO 1120Z DAILY 31 DEC THRU 04 JAN 23
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   28-37.00N 049-23.00W, 26-51.00N 050-35.00W,
   22-51.00N 043-14.00W, 24-37.00N 042-05.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA IV 1386/22.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 041220Z JAN 23.

[Alexphysics]

I asked Declan from Flight Club to simulate a launch following the launch hazard zones and compare the resulting orbit against that hazard zone in the Atlantic and it looks to be close enough. Here's the simulation from his website: https://flightclub.io/result/3d?simulationId=sim_1iywtk5le

Edit: The sim is still being tweaked btw, that is not the final version so it's not 100% high fidelity. It should be once SpaceX releases timings and things like that

[SpaceFinnOriginal]

Any updates on the launch? SpaceX web site does not have info about the launch.

[mfoster]

weather is not looking good at all.

[VLN]

Any updates on the launch? SpaceX web site does not have info about the launch.

Crumbs spilled from the table:
https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp

SPACEX EROS C (DO-2229), VANDENBERG SPACE FORCE BASE, CA
                     AHA A      AHA B
PRIMARY:   12/30   0703-0856   0822-0940

BACKUP:   12/31   0722-0916   0841-1000   
          01/01   0743-0936   0902-1020
          01/02   0803-0956   0922-1040
          01/03   0823-1016   0942-1100
          01/04   0843-1036   1002-1120

"AHA A" appears to be the launch at VSFB and "AHA B" the debris from stage 2, as posted above.
This suggests
* the launch time is 15 min after the start of the NGA window(s)
* there is ~20 min/day advance of launch time with date

[Josh_from_Canada]

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1608621257804898304

Falcon 9 is vertical on pad 4E in California ahead of tonight’s targeted launch of the @ImageSatIntl EROS C-3 mission; weather forecast is currently 30% favorable for liftoff at 11:17 p.m. PT → http://spacex.com/launches

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=ISI-EROS-C-3

SpaceX is targeting Thursday, December 29 for launch of the ISI EROS C-3 mission to a low-earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The 56-minute launch window opens at 11:17 p.m. PT (07:17 UTC on December 30). A backup launch opportunity is available on Friday, December 30 with a 56-minute window opening at 11:37 p.m. PT (07:37 UTC on December 31).

The Falcon 9 first stage booster supporting this mission previously launched Crew-1, Crew-2, SXM-8, CRS-23, IXPE, Transporter-4, Transporter-5, Globalstar FM15, and two Starlink missions. After stage separation, the first stage will land on Landing Zone 4 (LZ-4) at Vandenberg Space Force Base.

A live webcast of this mission will begin about 15 minutes prior to liftoff.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1608627076445401090

NRC Quest is 380 km downrange to recover the fairing for the EROS-C3 mission tonight.

Weather is 30% go but a 56-minute launch window could provide some options.