Author Topic: LIVE: STS-116 Landing Weather (Read 60369 times)

Gary · « **Reply #100 on:** 12/22/2006 02:31 pm »

Looks like White Sands is going to see a shuttle.

Chris Bergin · « **Reply #101 on:** 12/22/2006 02:31 pm »

Thanks. Let's hope KSC improves.

rdale · « **Reply #102 on:** 12/22/2006 02:33 pm »

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Gary - 22/12/2006 10:14 AM

Looks like White Sands is going to see a shuttle.

CLEARLY too early to rule out KSC. That doesn't need to happen for a few hours yet, so no need to take them off the board today especially given the random nature of clouds and wind. Look how many people counted out the first two launch attempts yet weather beat the "official" forecast...

landofgrey · « **Reply #103 on:** 12/22/2006 02:33 pm »

T-38 has been making wx obs. KSC is observed go right now (which means absolutely nothing), but clouds are moving in and the wind is stiff... fortunately it's up/down the SLF and not a crosswind concern. Weather's been *slowly* degrading and I guess it will continue to do so. The question is how bad, how fast.

TJL · « **Reply #104 on:** 12/22/2006 02:34 pm »

Does the forecast for KSC improve any on Saturday?

Gary · « **Reply #105 on:** 12/22/2006 02:36 pm »

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TJL - 22/12/2006 3:17 PM

Does the forecast for KSC improve any on Saturday?

I think it's mentioned in an earlier thread - 40% no go for today and 60% no go for Saturday. Discovery will land today due to consumables because they don't want to extend unless there is a valid technical reason.

martynwilliams · « **Reply #106 on:** 12/22/2006 02:37 pm »

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TJL - 22/12/2006 3:17 PM

Does the forecast for KSC improve any on Saturday?

I think the strategy is, that if one of the three sites is ‘go’ today, they’ll land today.

Gary · « **Reply #107 on:** 12/22/2006 02:38 pm »

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rdale - 22/12/2006 3:16 PM

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Gary - 22/12/2006 10:14 AM

Looks like White Sands is going to see a shuttle.

CLEARLY too early to rule out KSC. That doesn't need to happen for a few hours yet, so no need to take them off the board today especially given the random nature of clouds and wind. Look how many people counted out the first two launch attempts yet weather beat the "official" forecast...

Agreed fully - I just have a feeling it's White Sands although it would be great to see Discovery land at KSC to finish up a perfect mission.

Weather forecasting is still more art than science!

daveglo · « **Reply #108 on:** 12/22/2006 02:45 pm »

Just to add a little info to the weather conversation, here's the link to the landing ground tracks:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/shuttle/shuttlemissions/sts116/news/landing.html

I suggest placing your favorite in a window next to the latest satellite cloud picture to see how the clouds affect chances at KSC vs. NOR.

As one of our esteemed members stated prior to launch: "Takeoffs are optional, landings mandatory"

rdale · « **Reply #109 on:** 12/22/2006 02:46 pm »

Just like the main threads - let's not all chime in with hoo-rah's for KSC and telling what your gut feels unless there's something real behind it ;> Weather forecasting is much more science than art.

Regarding the landing track - the clouds only matter in the immediate area of the landing location so you don't need a big picture. NOR will be getting some thin high clouds later today that make look threatening on the satellite map but are not an issue.

landofgrey · « **Reply #110 on:** 12/22/2006 02:46 pm »

Yes, if Discovery can land at one of the three sites today, whichever one, it will. If more than one are "go", then the most ideal will be used. Barring something like the payload bay doors not latching, Discovery will be on the ground today. From what I observe at KSC, while the weather won't be "good", it might not be as bad as it was for 121. That's just from stepping outside and eyeballing it though. The bad stuff (rain, etc.) is coming in slowly and may not move into the area in time to force a wave-off. But 4 1/2 hours till deorbit TIG is still WAY too early to say one way or the other.

joncz · « **Reply #111 on:** 12/22/2006 02:49 pm »

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TJL - 22/12/2006 10:17 AM

Does the forecast for KSC improve any on Saturday?

Saturday doesn't factor into it unless they have a systems problem today... If there's a green site they have to come down today.

lsullivan411 · « **Reply #112 on:** 12/22/2006 02:49 pm »

What is the very latest they can wait before a go/no go on the deorbit burn?

landofgrey · « **Reply #113 on:** 12/22/2006 02:51 pm »

They don't like to wait beyond 15-20 minutes or so prior to TIG, but I'm not sure if that's a hard deadline other than the time of ignition itself. Of course, anytime before the burn starts it can be called off.

avitek · « **Reply #114 on:** 12/22/2006 02:58 pm »

MCC go-for-burn is issued at TIG-22 min. At TIG-20 min maneuver start to burn attitude.

avitek · « **Reply #115 on:** 12/22/2006 03:00 pm »

I think, that the latest possible time to wave-off the deorbit burn is before APU start, at TIG-4 min.

gordo · « **Reply #116 on:** 12/22/2006 03:00 pm »

John Kelly of Fla today has got a line with the team expected to bring the orbiter into NOR on its first opportunity if its green and KSC is red from the orbit beofre

landofgrey · « **Reply #117 on:** 12/22/2006 03:04 pm »

Taken about 10 minutes ago, picture looking past the VAB toward SLF, picture looking toward LC-39B, looking due east and looking due west. All were shot from the KSC Press Site. You can see how the clouds are moving in now

landofgrey · « **Reply #118 on:** 12/22/2006 03:07 pm »

Thanks for reminding me of the deorbit go/no-go time. APU start would be the last time to give the call. I had forgotten that.

Runway 15 @ KSC is the preferred runway, due to the high wind from the south-southeast, as can be seen by the flag stiff in the wind in the photo above.

psloss · « **Reply #119 on:** 12/22/2006 03:14 pm »

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gordo - 22/12/2006 10:43 AM

John Kelly of Fla today has got a line with the team expected to bring the orbiter into NOR on its first opportunity if its green and KSC is red from the orbit beofre

That's slightly counter to what Norm Knight said yesterday.

I believe he said that the plan was obviously KSC on rev 202 (it's a KSC only rev).

On the next rev, 203, they would look at KSC first and then EDW. (There are opportunities for all three.)

On the third rev, 204, they would look at EDW first and then NOR.

I believe that's the plan going in, and subject to what the real-time observations look like.

EDW is available on rev 205 (EDW only), but I think they will land by 204 at the latest.