Author Topic: New small launcher history and schedule  (Read 7360 times)

Offline PM3

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New small launcher history and schedule
« on: 10/20/2022 07:59 am »
This thread replaces the small launcher lists that were posted here. The expected NET launch dates are my own estimates. NET = optimistic, launches may slip to a later year. The [bracketed] announced dates are mostly PR stuff, not real engineering schedules. See below for a list of changes.

Small launchers (≤ 2 t payload capacity) that reached orbit since the thread Countdown to new smallsat launchers was started:

2018-01  ...  Electron     US/NZ     Rocket Lab
2018-03  ...  SS-520       Japan     JAXA/IHI (public/private)
2019-07  ...  Hyperbola-1  China     iSpace
2019-08  ...  Jielong-1    China     Chinarocket (state-owned)
2020-04  ...  Qased        Iran      (military)
2020-11  ...  Ceres-1      China     Galactic Energy
2021-01  ...  LauncherOne  US        Virgin Orbit
2021-11  ...  Rocket 3     US        Astra
2022-07  ...  Lijian-1     China     CAS Space (state-owned)
2022-10  ...  Alpha        US        Firefly
2022-12  ...  Kuaizhou-11  China     ExPace (public/private)
2022-12  ...  Jielong-3    China     Chinarocket (state-owned)
2023-02  ...  SSLV         India     ISRO (state-owned)
2023-04  ...  Tianlong-2   China     Space Pioneer
2023-11  ...  Chollima-1   N. Korea  (state-owned)
2023-12  ...  solid SLV    S. Korea  (military)
2024-01  ...  Qaem 100     Iran      (military)
2024-01  ...  Simorgh      Iran      ISA (state-owned)

Launch expected [announced] NET:     (+ = very ambitious schedule or unclear date)

2024  [2022+] Zoljanah     Iran      (military)
2024+ [2024]  RFA One      Germany   RFA / OHB
2024+         Kairos       Japan     Space One / Canon & IHI

2025          GYUB         N. Korea  (military)
2025  [2024]  Nebula-1     China     Deep Blue
2025+ [2024]  Vikram I     India     Skyroot

2026  [2024]  Hanbit-Nano  S. Korea  Innospace
2026  [2025]  Prime        UK/Den    Orbex
2026+ [2024]  Spectrum     Germany   Isar
2026+ [2025]  Zero         Japan     Interstellar

2027  [2024]  Skyrora XL   UK/Ukr    Skyrora
2027  [2024]  Vikram II    India     Skyroot
2027  [2025]  Agnibaan     India     Agnikul
2027+ [2025]  Miura 5      Spain     PLD
2027+ [2026]  MSLS (MUFS)  Turkey    Roketsan (public/private)

2028  [2025]  Maia         France    MaiaSpace / ArianeGroup
2028  [2025]  Zephyr       France    Latitude

2029  [2026]  STS          Italy     Avio - experimental rocket
2029  [2027]  VLM-1        Bra/Ger   IAE/DLR (state-owned)

2030  [2030]  ?            Japan     Honda
2030+ [2027]  Şimşek-1     Turkey    Roketsan (public/private)
2030s [2029]  Tronador II  Argentina CONAE (state-owned)

Intentionally not listed:

- Tlon Aventura I [2023+], too dubious
- Astra Rocket 4 [2024], not funded / suspended
- B2Space Colibri [2024], too dubious
- C6 Launch [2024], too dubious
- Gilmour Eris [2024], too dubious
- Promin launcher [2024], too dubious
- Reaction Dynamics Aurora-1 [2024], too dubious
- Aevum Ravn X [2024], too dubious
- bluShift Red Dwarf [2025], too unlikely that this will ever launch
- HyImpulse SL1 [2025], not funded
- Perigee Blue Whale 1 [2025], too unclear if this will ever launch
- Phantom Daytona [2025], too dubious
- Rocket Pi Darwin II [2025], too dubious
- Sirius 1 [2025], too dubious
- Vaya Dauntless [2025], too dubious
- iRocket Shockwave [2025], too dubious
- SpinLaunch [2026], too dubious
- Polaris Aurora [2026], early-stage concept
- HyPrSpace OB1 [2027], too dubious
- TASA Siraya [2028], early-stage concept, not funded
- Roketsan Şimşek-2 [2028+], early-stage concept
- rockets without an announced launch date
- projects without notable media coverage

Unclear - no update on launch date:

- Newline-1 (Linkspace/China), announced for 2021 in 2019
- Xingtu-1 (Spacetrek/China), announced for 2021 in 2019, dubious
- EcoRocket (ARCA/Romania), slips from 2022 without new schedule, junk
- Kestrel V (ATSpace/Australia), announced for 2023 in 2022, dubious
- Hapith V (tiSpace/Taiwan) = Kestrel V
- unnamed (Astraius/UK), announced for 2024 in 2022
- RS1 (ABL/US), no launch schedule after pad failure in July 2024

Canceled without reaching orbit:

- XS-1 (Boeing/US) - not launched
- Zhuque-1 (Landspace/China) - one failed orbital launch attempt
- Vector-R and -H (US) - no orbital launch attempts
- OS-M (OneSpace/China) - one failed orbital launch attempt
- Chetak (Bellatrix/India) - not launched
- Ryder (SpaceRyde/Canada) - not launched
- Launcher Light (US) - not launched
- Terran 1 (Relativity/US) - one failed orbital launch attempt
- Hyperbola-2 (iSpace/China) - not launched

Status of new commercial small launchers:

                         partial
               success   success   failure    Status

  Electron          46         1         3    operational
  Zhuque-1           0         0         1    retired
  OS-M               0         0         1    retired
  Hyperbola-1        3         0         4    unreliable
  Ceres-1           13         0         1    operational
  LauncherOne        4         0         2    retired 
  Rocket 3           2         1         5    retired
  Alpha              2         1         2    operational
  RS1                0         0         1    testing
  Terran 1           0         0         1    retired
  Tianlong-2         1         0         0    operational
« Last Edit: 07/23/2024 10:03 am by PM3 »
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Offline PM3

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #1 on: 10/20/2022 08:00 am »
This is a history of updates to the above list. Minor changes like reordering the launches within the same year are not recorded.

2022
-10-23: SSLV now announced for NLT March 2023
-10-24: delisted Kairos due to lack of launch schedule
-10-24: shifted expectation for Hyperbola-2 from 2024+ to 2025
-10-26: relisted Kairos with an announced launch in February 2023
-11-01: shifted expectation for Prime from 2023 to 2024 due to spaceport availability
-11-08: shifted expectation for Vikram I from 2023 to 2024
-11-17: mentioned Ryder
-11-26: moved Hapith V / Kestrel V to the "unclear" section
-12-03: MUFS (Şimşek) slips from 2026 to 2027  two different rockets
-12-06: mentioned Promin launcher
-12-06: shifted expectation for Spectrum from 2024 to 2025
-12-07: Kuaizhou-11 made it to orbit on the second launch attempt
-12-09: Jielong-3 is in orbit, too
-12-14: RS1 slips to 2023
-12-27: removed Hanbit-Nano due to lack of orbital launch date
-12-30: Chetak has been canceled

2023
-01-01: Zoljanah slips to 2023
-01-04: added Tianlong-2
-01-11: recycled RS1 to later 2023 after failed launch
-02-10: SSLV has reached orbit on second launch
-02-12: listed Nebula-1, Zephyr, VLM-1, Astraius, Honda and Maia Mini
-02-14: moved Ryder to the "canceled" section after SpaceRyde bankruptcy
-02-18: removed Bolt (X-Bow), because there is no roadmap for orbital launches
-02-21: listed Zero
-02-21: Red Dwarf [2024+] => [2025], SpinLaunch [2025] => [2026]
-02-21: Launcher Light has been canceled
-03-02: removed Hello-1 due to lack of orbital launch schedule
-03-02: Shockwave [2023] => [2025], SL1 [2024] => [2025]
-03-06: delisted Hyperbola-2
-03-06: shifted expectation for Agnibaan and Prime from 2024 to 2025
-03-07: listed Miura 5
-03-20: re-added Hanbit-Nano
-03-22: added Avio's STS, a demonstrator rocket for Vega Light
-03-23: delisted Terran 1 after failed orbital launch attempt
-04-02: Tianlong-2 is in orbit
-04-12: Terran 1 will never launch again
-04-18: shifted expectation for Miura 5 from 2025 to 2027
-04-19: mentioned Colibri
-04-20: added Vikram II
-04-22: shifted expectation for RFA One, Skyrora XL and Eris from 2024 to 2025
-04-22: shifted expectation for Spectrum from 2025 to 2026
-05-16: delisted Rocket 4 because of financial issues
-06-01: added Chollima-1
-06-07: Blue Whale 1: unclear [2020] => not listed [2025]
-06-10: Kestrel V: unclear [2022] => not listed [2023]
-06-10: listed Şimşek-1 separately from MUFS, mentioned Şimşek-2
-06-11: added unnamed North Korean solid launcher confused with South Korean launcher
-06-11: delisted Prime due to lack of launch schedule
-06-12: added Epsilon S
-06-12: mentioned Tronador II
-07-23: Ravn X: unclear [2020] => not listed [2024]
-08-05: Rocket 4 slips indefinitely from 2023
-08-07: RFA One [2023] => [2024]
-08-10: Zero [2023] => [2025]
-08-14: moved MSLS and Simsek-1 two years up after successful SR-1 launch
-08-15: Rocket 4 is now announced for 2024, but Astra running out of money
-08-22: moved Chollima-1 from 2024 to the very top, launch is expected soon
-08-28: Skyrora XL and Daytona [2023] => [2024]
-09-15: mentioned Siraya
-09-20: delisted Eris
-09-20: shifted expectation for Agnibaan from 2025 to 2026
-09-25: shifted expectation for Qaem from 2023 to 2024
-09-25: delisted Kairos due to lack of launch schedule
-10-27: Dauntless [2023] => [2025]
-11-01: added Troposphere 6 suborbital rocket
-11-01: listed Tronador II with [2024+] => [2029]
-11-02: Hyperbola-2 has been canceled in favour of the larger Hyperbola-3
-11-14: moved Skyrora XL down from 2025 to 2026
-11-19: Agnibaan 2026 [2023] => 2027 [2025]
-11-21: Chollima-1 is in orbit
-11-25: mentioned "Orbital Baguette" OB1
-12-04: some South Korean solid SLV has reached orbit
-12-20: RS1 slips to 2024
-12-20: delisted Zephyr
-12-20: moved Skyrora XL and Astraius down from 2026 to 2027

2024
-01-01: Zoljanah slips to 2024
-01-20: Qaem 100 made it to orbit on second attempt
-01-23: re-listed Kairos, which is reported to launch in March 2024
-01-28: surpise - Simorgh made it to orbit in 6th launch
-02-07: mentioned Aurora spaceplance (the German one, not Dawn)
-02-10: removed Epsilon-S, which is rather an evolution of Epsilon than a new rocket
-02-22: VLM-1 2027 [2025] => 2029 [2027]
-03-24: moved Maia up from 2029 to 2028
-03-25: re-listed Zephyr, which got lots of new funding, and mentioned Sirius
-05-26: re-listed Prime, tentatively announced for 2025
-06-16: delisted Astraius due to news blackout
-07.23: added GYUB
-07-23: moved RFA One up to 2024+ after successful 3rd stage hotfire
-07-23: delisted RS1 after pad failure, unclear path forward
« Last Edit: 07/23/2024 10:02 am by PM3 »
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Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #2 on: 10/22/2022 07:02 am »
I think Vector-R should be moved from Dead to whatever you think is appropriate.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline PM3

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #3 on: 10/22/2022 07:18 am »
I think Vector-R should be moved from Dead to whatever you think is appropriate.

The orbital launch plans for Vector-R were canceled and not (yet) resumed, see Vector thread. It stays with the dead as long as Vector does not schedule an orbital launch. Anyway, I consider it as an amateur rocket which is not able to reach space.
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline Asteroza

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #4 on: 10/25/2022 08:06 am »
This is a history of updates to the above list. Minor changes like reordering the launches within the same year are not recorded.

2022
-10-23: SSLV now announced for NLT March 2023
-10-24: delisted Kairos due to lack of launch schedule
-10-24: shifted expectation for Hyperbola-2 from 2024+ to 2025

Kairos is apparently targeting 2023 February very recently, per employees speaking in a public setting. I expect that to slip some but not a whole lot. They are a fair ways along at this point. Their social media game is almost non-existent, which is why their own home page doesn't show that...

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #5 on: 12/09/2022 11:24 am »
I think the SS-520 can be de-listed as it was an one-off experiment by JAXA and they were not going to develop it into an operational launcher. I do heard that some of the avionics were to be derived for use on SpaceOne’s KAIROS in your list.
Astronomy & spaceflight geek penguin. In a relationship w/ Space Shuttle Discovery.

Offline c4fusion

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #6 on: 02/01/2023 09:47 pm »
I personally think Astra’s Rocket 3 should be placed into the cancelled category in addition to the current launched category with the note: flew but cancelled due to reliability.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #7 on: 02/01/2023 10:30 pm »
I think the SS-520 can be de-listed as it was an one-off experiment by JAXA and they were not going to develop it into an operational launcher. I do heard that some of the avionics were to be derived for use on SpaceOne’s KAIROS in your list.

I personally think Astra’s Rocket 3 should be placed into the cancelled category in addition to the current launched category with the note: flew but cancelled due to reliability.

In both of these cases the term 'retired' might be better than the term 'Cancelled'.

Offline PM3

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #8 on: 02/02/2023 10:25 am »
I have added "without reaching orbit" to clarify the meaning of "canceled".

Retirement information could be added to the launch history at the top. But readers might conclude that those without a "retired" tag are not retired, which may be wrong. It is sometimes unclear if a rocket is still in service, e.g. some Iranian rockets. So I prefer to omit that information.

[February 12]
I have done a major overhaul of the lists in post #1. Rockets of all companies that probably have the engineering skills and financial backing to reach orbit are now listed in the schedule, up into the far future of expected launch in the 2030s. "Intentionally not listed" are only those where I seriously doubt that they can ever reach orbit.
« Last Edit: 02/12/2023 09:54 am by PM3 »
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Offline su27k

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #9 on: 02/16/2023 04:18 am »
Noise complaints help bring down launch startup SpaceRyde

Quote from: SpaceNews
Canadian launch startup SpaceRyde has filed for bankruptcy just months after noise complaints put an end to rocket engine tests.

The five-year-old company, which had been developing a rocket that would use a stratospheric balloon as its first stage, filed for bankruptcy Feb. 10 and named Deloitte as trustee to handle its affairs.

SpaceRyde had raised about $10 million from a mix of early-stage investors and government awards, but needed more funds ahead of a goal to start commercial launches in 2024 with a 20-meter-tall rocket.

Offline Asteroza

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #10 on: 02/16/2023 05:53 am »
This is a history of updates to the above list. Minor changes like reordering the launches within the same year are not recorded.

2022
-10-23: SSLV now announced for NLT March 2023
-10-24: delisted Kairos due to lack of launch schedule
-10-24: shifted expectation for Hyperbola-2 from 2024+ to 2025

Kairos is apparently targeting 2023 February very recently, per employees speaking in a public setting. I expect that to slip some but not a whole lot. They are a fair ways along at this point. Their social media game is almost non-existent, which is why their own home page doesn't show that...

Kairos being shifty isn't new, but it looks like summer 2023 now (would not surprise me if they stretch that to mean end of August...)

Offline DeimosDream

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #11 on: 04/18/2023 03:46 pm »
Any thoughts on Colibri? I was putting together a list of 2023-2024 rockets and discovered B2Space had a ballon-launch proposal. They seem to be small, scrappy, and underfunded even by newspace standards, but they seems to actually be building hardware and pop up form time to time in reports such as this one: https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/20585258.newport-firm-b2space-plans-rocket-balloon-satellite-launches/

Edit: to clarify I was asking if Colibri was deliberately or accidentally omitted from the list. If they were an accidental omission when would one realistically expect them to fly, or at this stage should they belong on the dubious list?
« Last Edit: 04/18/2023 08:50 pm by DeimosDream »

Offline PM3

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #12 on: 04/18/2023 05:40 pm »
I don't think that Colibri is noteworthy enough to add it to the list. Media reports on this project are very scarce, and I don't see an indication of progress in developing the rocket. The announced 2024 orbital launch date is nonsense.

For further discussion of B2Space, I suggest to create a dedicated thread in the Commercial Spaceflight section. This thread is only about maintaining the list in post #1.

----

Edit after clarification by DeimosDream: I was not aware that B2Space meanwhile has published an orbital launch date and therefore had not considered to add it to the list. This rocket will never lauch to orbit. It may even never be built. But well, as it has been mentioned once by BBC News and once by The Guardian, I add it provisionally as one of the least significant "too dubious" candidates.
« Last Edit: 04/20/2023 05:03 pm by PM3 »
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Offline PM3

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Re: New small launcher history and schedule
« Reply #13 on: 09/15/2023 08:19 am »
I have added a launch statistic and status overview of new commercial small launchers to post #1 of this thread. This will be updated after each launch.
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

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