Author Topic: Soyuz-2.1v/Volga - Kosmos 2561/2562 - Plesetsk 43/4 - 21 Oct 2022 19:20 UTC (Read 14308 times)

B. Hendrickx · « **on:** 10/11/2022 11:17 pm »

It looks like there is yet another launch planned from Plesetsk on 18 October between 19.00 and 21.00 UTC.

Quote

A6321/22 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7537N02145E024
A) ENOB B) 2210181900 C) 2210212100
D) DAILY 1900-2100
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA 2 OCT 22' ACTIVATED IN
PSN: 755900N 0212600E - 755000N 0220200E - 753100N 0225600E -
752100N 0225200E - 751500N 0221300E - 752400N 0212900E - 753600N
0205100E - 755000N 0203000E - (755900N 0212600E). IMPACT AREA FOR
RUSSIAN ROCKET FRAGMENTS IN THE BASIN OF BARENTS SEA
F) SFC G) UNL

The impact zone in the Barents Sea points to a launch into polar orbit. The coordinates are very similar to those announced for earlier Soyuz-2-1v launches, more particularly for the impact zone of the payload fairing. However, no coordinates are seen in this NOTAM for the first stage, which is jettisoned earlier in the launch.

There were rumors last month that up to seven Russian launches were planned for October. So far one has taken place (Kosmos-2558) and five are known to be scheduled (Angosat-2, EMKA-3, 18 October launch, Gonets-M, Progress MS-21). This could mean that there will be a fourth launch from Plesetsk later in the month, a launch cadence not seen at the northern cosmodrome in a long time.

[zubenelgenubi: Satellite or satellites are expected to receive a Kosmos designation.]

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #1 on:** 10/13/2022 09:21 am »

The Insider writes Soyuz 2.1v with Volga upper stage and several satellites.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #2 on:** 10/13/2022 10:54 am »

Could be the three small satellites (MKA nrs. 1, 2 and 3) of the VNIIEM Corporation that were supposed to be launched in the second half of this year. They were mentioned in a presentation given by a VNIIEM representative last June.

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #3 on:** 10/14/2022 08:48 am »

2 satellites only (?)

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #4 on:** 10/14/2022 04:36 pm »

Quote from: Alter Sachse on 10/14/2022 08:48 am

2 satellites only (?)

Yes, that's what the insider is saying. He also seemed to be implying that these are payloads that have not flown before.

Could still be two of the three VNIIEM satellites. We don't know if they were all supposed to be launched together. Unflown VNIIEM military satellites are Razbeg and Geovysota. The latter is very unlikely though because that's supposed to go into a very low orbit and this mission carries the Volga upper stage.

The only other option I see right now is that it's something from the CNIIHM stable. Nivelir and Burevestnik have most likely already flown, but Numizmat probably hasn't. But it's perfectly possible that there are other new military satellites out there that we simply don't know about.

One also wonders if the timing of the Angara launch and the Soyuz-2-1v launch just four days apart (and both going to polar orbit) is coincidental or not. But I guess that takes us too far into the realm of speculation.

Alter Sachse · « **Reply #5 on:** 10/16/2022 02:10 pm »

The insider:

14Ф164 and 14Ф172

maybe Bart can do something with it...

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #6 on:** 10/16/2022 08:36 pm »

Quote from: Alter Sachse on 10/16/2022 02:10 pm

The insider:

14Ф164 and 14Ф172

maybe Bart can do something with it...

I've never seen these designators before. Clearly two different satellites. Possibly, there will be some sort of interaction between them. My best guess right now is Numizmat, a CNIIHM project started in 2014. One subcontractor for Numizmat seen in procurement and court documentation is the Progress Rocket and Space Center, most likely for a Soyuz-class launch vehicle. Taking into account CNIIHM's specialization in small satellites, the Soyuz-2-1v is the most probable candidate. Known payloads for Numizmat are an ultrawide band radar and a TV camera, which means that it will most likely be used for rendezvous and proximity operations. In other words, it would need a target. The actual purpose of Numizmat remains unclear. The involvement of a company called NPP Advent may point to something involving lasers, but that's highly speculative.

Again, I'm just guessing. This may just as well be a completely different mission. The orbital behavior of the satellites may give us a clue, so I suppose we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

novuh · « **Reply #7 on:** 10/16/2022 08:55 pm »

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 10/16/2022 08:36 pm

I've never seen these designators before. Clearly two different satellites. Possibly, there will be some sort of interaction between them. My best guess right now is Numizmat, a CNIIHM project started in 2014.

Would this be the first time Numizmat has flown? Not sure if it's a one off satellite or if it'll be part of a family of satellites.

Also, what the heck is Numizmat? Looking at this thread, https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47851.0, it's not immediately obvious what it is. I imagine some sort of reconnaissance satellite, not sure if it'd be SAR, IR, or take 'normal" pictures.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #8 on:** 10/16/2022 09:42 pm »

Quote from: novuh on 10/16/2022 08:55 pm

Would this be the first time Numizmat has flown? Not sure if it's a one off satellite or if it'll be part of a family of satellites

My understanding is it hasn't flown before, but there are few certainties in this business...

Quote from: novuh on 10/16/2022 08:55 pm

Also, what the heck is Numizmat? Looking at this thread, https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47851.0, it's not immediately obvious what it is. I imagine some sort of reconnaissance satellite, not sure if it'd be SAR, IR, or take 'normal" pictures.

As I explained in that thread, ultrawide band radars are more suggestive of rendezvous and proximity operations than remote sensing (because of their immunity from jamming and detection). Also, CNIIHM's core business seems to be ASAT/inspection missions.

novuh · « **Reply #9 on:** 10/17/2022 12:09 am »

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 10/16/2022 09:42 pm

As I explained in that thread, ultrawide band radars are more suggestive of rendezvous and proximity operations than remote sensing (because of their immunity from jamming and detection). Also, CNIIHM's core business seems to be ASAT/inspection missions.

Could this be a similar payload to Kosmos-2558? That was supposedly an inspector satellite, potentially mirroring the orbit of USA 326. https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/08/potential-inspector-soyuz-2-1v/

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #10 on:** 10/17/2022 11:55 am »

Quote from: novuh on 10/17/2022 12:09 am

Could this be a similar payload to Kosmos-2558? That was supposedly an inspector satellite, potentially mirroring the orbit of USA 326. https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/08/potential-inspector-soyuz-2-1v/

No. Kosmos-2558 belongs to the Nivelir project. It is the third 14F150 satellite, built by NPO Lavochkin. Like its predecessors Kosmos-2519 and 2542, it probably carries a subsatellite, although it hasn't been released yet. The subsatellite presumably has the index 14F162 and is a product of CNIIHM. CNIIHM is the prime contractor for Nivelir, with NPO Lavochkin acting as a subcontractor.

SpaceFinnOriginal · « **Reply #11 on:** 10/17/2022 04:51 pm »

Are serials for Soyuz and Volga known?

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #12 on:** 10/18/2022 07:10 pm »

24-hour scrub.

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #13 on:** 10/18/2022 07:19 pm »

They're now talking about "an indefinite delay".

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #14 on:** 10/18/2022 08:07 pm »

Latest news now is that it's a 24-hour scrub after all. Same time tomorrow (apparently shortly after 19.00 UTC).

sudnadja · « **Reply #15 on:** 10/19/2022 01:13 am »

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 10/16/2022 08:36 pm

In other words, it would need a target. The actual purpose of Numizmat remains unclear. The involvement of a company called NPP Advent may point to something involving lasers, but that's highly speculative.

Is it possible that it intends a very close inspection of USA 326?

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #16 on:** 10/19/2022 09:59 am »

Quote from: sudnadja on 10/19/2022 01:13 am

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 10/16/2022 08:36 pm
In other words, it would need a target. The actual purpose of Numizmat remains unclear. The involvement of a company called NPP Advent may point to something involving lasers, but that's highly speculative.

Is it possible that it intends a very close inspection of USA 326?

That's highly unlikely. USA 326 is already being shadowed by Kosmos-2558 (a 14F150 type satellite) and that in turn is likely to release a subsatellite (probably named 14F162) which could potentially make even closer inspections of USA 326. The two previous 14F150 satellites (Kosmos-2519 and 2542) also released such subsatellites. Kosmos-2519 deployed its subsatellite (Kosmos-2521) about two months after launch and Kosmos-2542 ejected its subsatellite (Kosmos-2543) less than two weeks after launch. Kosmos-2558 has not yet deployed anything after about 2.5 months in orbit, but that could happen any day. Even more worryingly, the two earlier subsatellites fired what the Pentagon interprets as ASAT projectiles when flying in close formation with other Russian satellites.

Judging by their military code names (14F164 and 14F172), Kosmos-2561 and 2562 are satellites of a different type. It is not inconceivable that they are part of another inspection and/or ASAT program (possibly Numizmat) and will perform rendezvous and proximity operations with each other, with one serving as a target for the other. But again, that's just a wild guess and wild guesses usually turn out to be wrong. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with these satellites after they reach orbit.

Rondaz · « **Reply #17 on:** 10/19/2022 10:53 am »

A launch is expected to take place today at ~ 19:00 UTC from #Plesetsk cosmodrome. Soyuz 2.1v with Volga upper stage will launch a classified military payload, presumably two #MKA satellites (№1 and №2).

https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1582624371687858177

sudnadja · « **Reply #18 on:** 10/19/2022 04:04 pm »

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 10/19/2022 09:59 am

That's highly unlikely. USA 326 is already being shadowed by Kosmos-2558 (a 14F150 type satellite) and that in turn is likely to release a subsatellite (probably named 14F162) which could potentially make even closer inspections of USA 326. The two previous 14F150 satellites (Kosmos-2519 and 2542) also released such subsatellites.

Extending that to its logical end, it's unlikely that this new launch will result in the payload being in the same plane as USA 326 and Kosmos 2558, and we probably shouldn't read anything into it that the launch time happens to be around the appropriate time?

B. Hendrickx · « **Reply #19 on:** 10/19/2022 05:49 pm »

Quote from: sudnadja on 10/19/2022 04:04 pm

Quote from: B. Hendrickx on 10/19/2022 09:59 am
That's highly unlikely. USA 326 is already being shadowed by Kosmos-2558 (a 14F150 type satellite) and that in turn is likely to release a subsatellite (probably named 14F162) which could potentially make even closer inspections of USA 326. The two previous 14F150 satellites (Kosmos-2519 and 2542) also released such subsatellites.

Extending that to its logical end, it's unlikely that this new launch will result in the payload being in the same plane as USA 326 and Kosmos 2558, and we probably shouldn't read anything into it that the launch time happens to be around the appropriate time?

I hadn't bothered to look into that, so thank you for pointing that out. That's definitely interesting (and a bit worrying too). Just one question: if they're aiming for that specific orbital plane, wouldn't today's launch time be different from yesterday's (it doesn't seem to have changed based on the available information)? Or to put it differently: would the satellites also have ended up in that orbital plane if they had been launched around 19.00 UTC yesterday?