Ashlee Vance book: When the Heavens Went on Sale

[EspenU]

[Snip[

That's awesome,  I am going to have to read both of her books one of these days.

His* books are great. I liked Berger’s book about the Falcon 1 as well. Eccentric Orbits, about Iridium, is in a similar vein and probably essential reading for anyone hoping to understand the satellite industry, but the book itself seemed to drag on and on (being kind of repetitive) and I found myself playing it extra fast on Audible. Same is not true for Eric Berger’s book and either of Ashlee Vance’s books so far.


* https://twitter.com/ashleevance/status/1657030222422630408?s=46

I liked Eric's book, and liking Ashlee's book so far.
But where there is some overlap of the books there are some discrepancies. Like the story of the buckling of the last falcon 1 on its flight over the pacific. Eric's book describes the pilots like good and competent people, while Ashlee's describes them as reckless cowboys (and the cause of the buckling).
Kind of makes me unsure how much is embellishment.

But I guess that's a question I should be asking myself for all books like this.

[Blackstar]

I don't follow the small launchers industry much, but you can look up the three companies (Rocket Lab, Astra and Firefly) in Wikipedia and see their success rates. Rocket Lab is really out front and it's fair to say that they are secure and they're the industry leader. Firefly has a bunch of launches lined up, but they really need some successes to secure a foothold in the business. Astra looks very wobbly.

I don't know what other companies there are in this industry besides Relativity Space. I find them rather puzzling. After achieving a mostly-successful test launch, they announced that they're going to stop launching for years and instead develop a bigger rocket. Almost all the other companies are talking about bigger rockets too, so there seems to be a consensus that small is out and bigger is better. But I don't know if that's a response to Rocket Lab's success, or if they just think that the small payload market doesn't have a future? (It could be both--Rocket Lab could keep a foot in small launches and try for larger ones as well.)

I'd add that these are not the first small launchers to come along. There have been others, like LLV, Pegasus, and even before that Scout. You could argue that their problem was they were too expensive and new companies came along thinking they could do it cheaper. That's what innovation is, right? But it's an interesting question to ask why these companies are then leaving this segment of the market? Did the market change, were they wrong from the start, or is this a case of bootstrapping with something small to develop something bigger?

[gongora]

I think a lot of them figured out that the prices they were charging for their small launchers didn't make for a great business unless they really did launch extremely often, which is very hard to do.

[JayWee]

...
I don't know what other companies there are in this industry besides Relativity Space. I find them rather puzzling. After achieving a mostly-successful test launch, they announced that they're going to stop launching for years and instead develop a bigger rocket. Almost all the other companies are talking about bigger rockets too, so there seems to be a consensus that small is out and bigger is better. But I don't know if that's a response to Rocket Lab's success, or if they just think that the small payload market doesn't have a future? (It could be both--Rocket Lab could keep a foot in small launches and try for larger ones as well.)

I'd add that these are not the first small launchers to come along. There have been others, like LLV, Pegasus, and even before that Scout. You could argue that their problem was they were too expensive and new companies came along thinking they could do it cheaper. That's what innovation is, right? But it's an interesting question to ask why these companies are then leaving this segment of the market? Did the market change, were they wrong from the start, or is this a case of bootstrapping with something small to develop something bigger?

I think it's a bit of all of "all of the above".
The market just developed differently than than people anticipated. Maybe there was a "big satellite in GEO" vs "cubesats in LEO" idea at some point. But it turned out, that for some (the most profitable) things you still need fairly large ones, even in LEO.

Just imagine if someone proposed, in ~<2010,  a constellation of 4000 sats massing 1356t requiring 85 launches for a decadal. What'd you have thought?

Also - to provide data to what you noted in your review upthread - most of the smallsats got indeed scooped up by SpaceX Transporter - 2021: 231 sats (2 launches), 2022: 204 sats (3 launches), 2023: 168 sats (2 out of 4 this year).
That'd have been a lot of launches (ignoring price elasticity now).

[FutureSpaceTourist]

That'd have been a lot of launches (ignoring price elasticity now).

It would have been if those customers could afford a (more) dedicated launch. I think the key thing about Falcon (large) rideshares is to hugely lower the cost for individual cubesats, significantly expanding the market.

Rocket Lab has done a number of rideshare missions too. Unlike SpaceX, I don’t think Rocket Lab prices are public? I imagine SpaceX economies of scale and re-use mean they could price smaller launchers out of the cheap(er) end of the market?

[Zed_Noir]

That'd have been a lot of launches (ignoring price elasticity now).

It would have been if those customers could afford a (more) dedicated launch. I think the key thing about Falcon (large) rideshares is to hugely lower the cost for individual cubesats, significantly expanding the market.

Rocket Lab has done a number of rideshare missions too. Unlike SpaceX, I don’t think Rocket Lab prices are public? I imagine SpaceX economies of scale and re-use mean they could price smaller launchers out of the cheap(er) end of the market?

According to the GAO in a 2017 report. The Electron can lift 150 kg to SSO for about $4.9M or $32667 per kg. So guessing that each Electron flight will cost around $5.16M today with inflation.

There is also the reliability of the launcher to consider for the customers. Since that could affect the insurance rate for their payloads.

Also customer can have the choice of launching with the most reliable launcher currently in the Falcon 9 or roll the dice with someone else.

[Oersted]

Halfway through Vance's book. It is a good read, but I must say I am more excited about Berger's F9 book. Purely because of the subject matter.

[Sumessneve]

Halfway through Vance's book. It is a good read, but I must say I am more excited about Berger's F9 book. Purely because of the subject matter.

Berger's F9 is online or paper book?

[Vahe231991]

Halfway through Vance's book. It is a good read, but I must say I am more excited about Berger's F9 book. Purely because of the subject matter.

Berger's F9 is online or paper book?

The only book on SpaceX written by Eric Berger so far is sold as a paper book even though it's also available as an eBook, and it's reasonable to assume that Berger's upcoming book about the Falcon 9 will also be published as a paper book.

[TrevorMonty]

That'd have been a lot of launches (ignoring price elasticity now).

It would have been if those customers could afford a (more) dedicated launch. I think the key thing about Falcon (large) rideshares is to hugely lower the cost for individual cubesats, significantly expanding the market.

Rocket Lab has done a number of rideshare missions too. Unlike SpaceX, I don’t think Rocket Lab prices are public? I imagine SpaceX economies of scale and re-use mean they could price smaller launchers out of the cheap(er) end of the market?

According to the GAO in a 2017 report. The Electron can lift 150 kg to SSO for about $4.9M or $32667 per kg. So guessing that each Electron flight will cost around $5.16M today with inflation.

Current price is $7.5m but there has been a performance increase so $kg is about same.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

twitter.com/lrocket/status/1680001828564652032

Nearly finished with @ashleevance latest book. So good.  Some classic quotes in there!

https://twitter.com/lrocket/status/1680005050385698816

Like this banger from Markusic about SpaceX on Omelek island when he was at NASA. So what did he do? he joined us

"They were putting the rocket up. It was cutting them. It was disappointing them. Things were going wrong. There were people drinking. People were teabagging* each other. I mean, very unprofessional”

https://twitter.com/lrocket/status/1680005394259922944

With this footnote😂

* For those who are unfamiliar with the term, teabagging in this context refers to the practice of placing one's testicles onto the face of an unsuspecting victim in a manner meant to cause general amusement for others in the vicinity. Though such an act would not be condoned under NASA protocols, SpaceX had no protocols.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/ashleevance/status/1798802429552808095

Reminder for DC folks. My upcoming HBO documentary on the rise of the commercial space industry will premiere next weekend, the 15th. (Produced this alongside Spielberg's Amblin and Adam McKay's Hyperobject and ZPZ)

If you're around, I'm doing a talk after the screening with the Oscar winner and director Ross Kauffman and @IgnatiusPost.

Come one, come all.

https://dcdoxfest.com/films/wild-wild-space/

[trimeta]

https://twitter.com/ashleevance/status/1810373218999705617

Spent six years making this sucker. Hope you guys enjoy. Coming to HBO on July 17

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/rocketlab/status/1810468275811426328

The most candid behind-the-scenes look at Rocket Lab’s founding and the fierce race to open access to space for small sats.

Streaming July 17th, #WildWildSpace is an @HBO Original Documentary by Academy Award winning director Ross Kauffman and based on @ashleevance’s NYT best-selling book.

Enjoy it. It’s a wild ride.

Will be interesting to see how all participants react.

[Blackstar]

There's very much of an arrogant tech-bro vibe in that promo. Astra technically still exists, but I don't think anybody knows what they're doing anymore. They certainly haven't been successful. It will be interesting to watch how the documentary addresses the current state of these companies.

[Cheapchips]

There's very much of an arrogant tech-bro vibe in that promo.

There's some amazing Kemp tech-bro-isms and anecdotes in the book.  It's going to interesting to see what was filmed and makes it to the documentary.

[Blackstar]

There's very much of an arrogant tech-bro vibe in that promo.

There's some amazing Kemp tech-bro-isms and anecdotes in the book.  It's going to interesting to see what was filmed and makes it to the documentary.

Yeah. Up-thread I recounted one story in the book about the Astra CEO who is talking to Vance from his car and then mentions that he doesn't know if his license is still suspended, so maybe he shouldn't be driving? And then he explains that he was driving 120 miles per hour on the freeway and got pulled over, but the cop was going to let him go until his girlfriend mouthed off. So he got a court date, but he missed it because he doesn't read his mail, and the DMV is inefficient at sending out drivers' licenses.

And you gotta be amazed at a guy who blames his girlfriend, blames the mail, blames the DMV, but admits that he was driving 120 miles per hour. It's not his fault, except if he does breaks the law, it's okay, because it's him and not some schmuck. And then look at the guy in that YT clip above--good-looking, obligatory black T-shirt, $300 haircut, and you know exactly what kind of person you're dealing with. 

[Reynold]

In reading that book, my impression was that Kemp at Astra was going to bring in more money than Beck at Rocketlabs, but that Rocketlabs would ultimately be more successful.  Kemp has the PR skills and impressed Ashlee Vance, a nontechnical person, more.  Beck seems to be doing rocket engineering because he wants it to be done right, which is, I think, a better long term approach for a rocket company. 

[Blackstar]

In reading that book, my impression was that Kemp at Astra was going to bring in more money than Beck at Rocketlabs, but that Rocketlabs would ultimately be more successful.

If you look at more recent news on Astra, they nearly went bankrupt and have now gone private. It's not really clear what they are up to at the moment. They avoided being carved up.

[Blackstar]

I wonder if Bill Weber of Firefly appears in this documentary? He just got the axe, apparently after reports of an "inappropriate relationship":

https://fireflyspace.com/news/leadership-change-at-firefly/