Author Topic: SpaceX F9 : Starlink group 2-4 : VSFB SLC-4E : 19 January 2023 (15:43 UTC)  (Read 62567 times)

Online ZachS09

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That’s a weird reason for a launch delay.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2023 08:22 pm by ZachS09 »
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline mn

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It's not 24 hrs, more like 13:12. it's a different launch time, means at the last minute they decided to target a different plane?

Online ZachS09

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It's not 24 hrs, more like 13:12. it's a different launch time, means at the last minute they decided to target a different plane?

That’s right. There were also several Starlinks in 2021 that launched in the wee hours (3 AM to 4 AM Eastern) due to last minute changes to different orbital planes.
« Last Edit: 01/11/2023 08:23 pm by ZachS09 »
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1613290006940090368

Quote
.@SpaceX has just notified us that the #Starlink Group 2-4 launch is now scheduled for 2023-01-15 at 16:18:40 UTC with deployment at 16:47:45.680 UTC. CelesTrak pre-launch SupGP data has been updated and is available at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g2-4

Online LouScheffer

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All of VSFB have redundant pairs or triples of diesel  generators. Every site every radar, every telemetry receiver tracker etc. Such that downed lines will not take down critical power to infrastructure. All generators are powered up and floating hot on the grid so a even low power from the line trips out and generators take over without so much as a blink to the critical launch support infrastructure on both south base and north base.
I'd assume the diesels are only fired up during a launch campaign?  It would seem incredibly wasteful to run them all the time.

If they really need 24 hour/day coverage there are much better systems available.  For our internal data center, where we want continuous coverage without even glitches, we use a combination of flywheels and generators.   The flywheels are continuously spinning, but they are in a vacuum so the losses are low.  If the power fails, the flywheels support the load (glitch free) for about 20 seconds.  During those 20 seconds, the diesels start and sync to the flywheel power for another seamless handover.  This gives very solid power with relatively little emissions (dominated by the weekly testing of the diesels).
That's a rock-solid 1970's solution. A new installation would probably use Megapacks.
Megapacks are the wrong technology for this task.  They are way too expensive to cope with long outages (several days, such as happened in Florida recently) so you need the diesels anyway. Once you have the diesels, what you need is bridging power to hold over while the diesels start, and flywheels are much smaller/cheaper for that.

Offline ChrisC

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That's a rock-solid 1970's solution. A new installation would probably use Megapacks.
Megapacks are the wrong technology for this task.  They are way too expensive to cope with long outages (several days, such as happened in Florida recently) so you need the diesels anyway. Once you have the diesels, what you need is bridging power to hold over while the diesels start, and flywheels are much smaller/cheaper for that.

At the facility that I worked at many years ago that had similar reliability requirements, we had huge room-sized UPS battery banks that were sized to support the building for 20-40 minutes.  Indeed it only took maybe 30-45 seconds for the diesels to come up and fully stabilize, and flywheels could cover that.  But we had to account for the OH-SH!T scenario where the associated genset didn't start, where a couple heavy-set electricians and mechanics (and 24/7 coverage) would come huffing down the hill from the campus machine shop and furiously work on the thing to get it running :)

We tested that system EVERY DAY.  At 3pm, one of those guys would stop by our facility on his daily tour and "pull the plug" on the whole building, literally kill the grid input (aka "shore power") and see if the UPS and gens automatically did their jobs.  If they didn't, OK, back to shore power and now let's figure out the generator problem while we don't actually need them ...

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Offline Ken the Bin

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New cancel-and-replace NGA Hazardous Operations notice (should be Rocket Launching).

Quote from: NGA
120423Z JAN 23
NAVAREA XII 16/23(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS:
   A. 1443Z TO 1827Z DAILY 15 THRU 19 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-40.00N 120-40.00W, 34-40.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-08.00N 120-05.00W,
      32-40.00N 119-25.00W, 32-40.00N 119-31.00W,
      33-18.00N 119-52.00W, 33-55.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-22.00N 120-34.00W, 34-33.00N 120-38.00W.
   B. 1443Z TO 1828Z DAILY 15 THRU 19 JAN
      30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W,
      29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W,
      28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 5/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 191928Z JAN 23.//

The timeframe being the same for all days doesn't reflect that the launch time moves 13-14 minutes earlier each day.

This information from the FAA correctly reflects it: https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp
Quote from: FAA
SPACE X STARLINK 2-4, VANDENBERG SFS
PRIMARY:        01/15/23        1553-1909Z
BACKUP:         01/16/23        1539-1855Z
                01/17/23        1526-1842Z
                01/18/23        1512-1828Z
                01/19/23        1458-1814Z

Online LouScheffer

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At the facility that I worked at many years ago that had similar reliability requirements, we had huge room-sized UPS battery banks that were sized to support the building for 20-40 minutes.  Indeed it only took maybe 30-45 seconds for the diesels to come up and fully stabilize, and flywheels could cover that.  But we had to account for the OH-SH!T scenario where the associated genset didn't start...
Our facility covers this by having 5 diesels in parallel, any 3 of which are sufficient to cover the load.  When power fails, all 5 are started regardless of the demand.  After the sync and cutover, the demand is measured and the diesels shut down one by one until the remaining units are working fairly hard, with the others held in reserve.  This is because running these diesels at low load is bad for their lifetime.

For the same reason, even routine testing is done under load.  Each day, one of the 5 diesels is fired up, synced to the grid, then asked to provide its capacity (a MW or so) for a few minutes.  So full load testing once per week per engine.

On top of this, for a few super-critical applications that cannot tolerate even minor disturbances, there is a UPS system that takes AC, converts it to DC to charge batteries, then re-synthesizes AC.  It's not needed for hold-over since the flywheels and generators can do that (though it may be asked to do so to reduce the load on the flywheels).  It's mainly there for power cleaning.

A lot of engineering goes into the seemingly simple task of backup power.  The facility guy in charge of this was very happy I stopped by and took an interest in his work.  But hopefully VFSB will soon recover, and we can resume talking about rockets instead of backup power strategies.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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At the facility that I worked at many years ago that had similar reliability requirements, we had huge room-sized UPS battery banks that were sized to support the building for 20-40 minutes.  Indeed it only took maybe 30-45 seconds for the diesels to come up and fully stabilize, and flywheels could cover that.  But we had to account for the OH-SH!T scenario where the associated genset didn't start...
Our facility covers this by having 5 diesels in parallel, any 3 of which are sufficient to cover the load.  When power fails, all 5 are started regardless of the demand.  After the sync and cutover, the demand is measured and the diesels shut down one by one until the remaining units are working fairly hard, with the others held in reserve.  This is because running these diesels at low load is bad for their lifetime.

For the same reason, even routine testing is done under load.  Each day, one of the 5 diesels is fired up, synced to the grid, then asked to provide its capacity (a MW or so) for a few minutes.  So full load testing once per week per engine.

On top of this, for a few super-critical applications that cannot tolerate even minor disturbances, there is a UPS system that takes AC, converts it to DC to charge batteries, then re-synthesizes AC.  It's not needed for hold-over since the flywheels and generators can do that (though it may be asked to do so to reduce the load on the flywheels).  It's mainly there for power cleaning.

A lot of engineering goes into the seemingly simple task of backup power.  The facility guy in charge of this was very happy I stopped by and took an interest in his work.  But hopefully VFSB will soon recover, and we can resume talking about rockets instead of backup power strategies.
Battery backups and generators have always been used in the space ops. But how the battery backups were implemented have changed from that of a battery set being specific to a hardware set that feed DC to the hardware at the voltages it needed. About late 1970's early 1980s this changed to the generic solid state UPS that delivered AC at regular line voltages so that less unique hardware all around could be used. Some earlier UPS designs used a DC motor connected to a AC generator for truly large UPS.

But we digress from the 2-4 mission.

Offline Sam Ho

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Here's an article that touches on everything in this digression: Vandenberg, spaceflight, data centers, and massive facility power equipment.  The motor-generators are because the Cybers took 400Hz AC power.  The Cybers were replaced by an emulator running on a PC, after the last maintenance techs retired.

The Last Cyber Mainframes, a 39-year era comes to an end

Quote
On April 29, 2021, the Western Range at Vandenberg shut down the last CDC-built mainframe computers, known as “Cyber” systems, still in service anywhere. The Air Force originally put these large computers into operation in 1982 to process data for various space and ballistic missile launch programs, such as Minuteman III, Peacekeeper, Delta II, and the Space Shuttle. Initially, the three water-cooled mainframes were installed in Building 488 on South Vandenberg AFB.

Two-ton motor-generators were needed to supply the Cybers with specially smoothed power to protect their sophisticated electronics. Two computers processed data for safety evaluations during flight, and the third handled data reduction before and after launches.

Online ZachS09

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Why does all this battery and electric stuff have to do with Starlink 2-4?

They didn’t delay this launch because of what’s being discussed.
Liftoff for St. Jude's! Go Dragon, Go Falcon, Godspeed Inspiration4!

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Why does all this battery and electric stuff have to do with Starlink 2-4?

They didn’t delay this launch because of what’s being discussed.
It got kicked off because the power grid outside and some inside VSFB got trashed by the storms. Making the normal grid power unreliable. All of this was about how the space launch has never really trusted grid power reliability. Both at VSFB and the cape.

Now that we have covered this topic so that if personnel can get to the locations safely. A launch can progress regardless of the  power grid.

Online GewoonLukas_

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Quote
Due to unfavorable recovery weather conditions with 15+ foot waves in the Pacific Ocean, as well as high winds across Central and Southern California, we’re now targeting no earlier than Wednesday, January 18 for Falcon 9’s launch of Starlink from California

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1614010561414717440

Edit: But website says January 19th:

Quote
SpaceX is targeting Thursday, January 19 for a Falcon 9 launch of 51 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The instantaneous launch window is at 7:23 a.m. PT (15:23 UTC).

Following stage separation, Falcon 9’s first stage will return to Earth and land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship stationed in the Pacific Ocean.

A live webcast of this mission will begin about five minutes prior to liftoff.
« Last Edit: 01/13/2023 09:16 pm by GewoonLukas_ »
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Offline Ken the Bin

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New cancel-and-replace NGA Hazardous Operations notice (should be Rocket Launching).  Note that it starts on January 18.

Quote from: NGA
132252Z JAN 23
NAVAREA XII 20/23(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS:
   A. 1333Z TO 1746Z DAILY 18 THRU 24 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-08.00N 120-05.00W, 34-40.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-40.00N 120-40.00W,
      34-33.00N 120-38.00W, 34-22.00N 120-34.00W,
      33-55.00N 120-17.00W, 33-18.00N 119-52.00W,
      32-40.00N 119-31.00W, 32-40.00N 119-25.00W.
   B. 1333Z TO 1747Z DAILY 18 THRU 24 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W,
      30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W,
      28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 16/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 241847Z JAN 23.

This NGA cancellation notice cancels a Space Debris notice associated with this launch.

Quote from: NGA
132325Z JAN 23
HYDROPAC 165/23(22,83).
EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 07.
CANCEL HYDROPAC 69/23 AND THIS MSG.

The FAA ATCSSC Current Operations Plan also shows January 18 as the Primary Day: https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp

Quote from: FAA
SPACE X STARLINK 2-4, VANDENBERG SFS
PRIMARY:        01/18/23        1512-1747Z
BACKUP:         01/19/23        1458-1733Z
                01/20/23        1444-1719Z
                01/21/23        1430-1705Z
                01/22/23        1416-1651Z
                01/23/23        1402-1637Z
                01/24/23        1348-1623Z

Online VLN

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There are 2 other NGA notices neighboring Starlink 2-4 in both space and time, and they are the reason I favor the Jan 19 opportunity.

The dark blue zone (NAVAREA XII 20/23) of course is the Starlink 2-4 zone that has been exactly the same since November. Well, this one has the same dots in reverse order.

The yellow zone (NAVAREA XII 21/23) is a notice for a single day, Jan 18 at 1230-2030 UTC= 4:30am-12:30pm PST. It looks like a missile path, but its east end is on the water. I saw several like this last fall, and concluded (with some advice) that they're from a military system under testing. The first Starlink 2-4 window from NGA is Jan 18 at 13:33-17:46 UTC, in the middle of the "missile" window and spatially mighty close. It's not impossible for them to coexist, but if they were mine, I'd change one of them.

The lavender square (NAVAREA XII 22/23) is a later unnamed hazard zone for 6 days, 10 hr/day: Jan 20-25, 1500-0100 UTC = 7am - 5pm PST. Because of its location, I speculate that this is related to the "missile" activity. It also overlaps the Starlink zone and its windows beginning Jan 20.

So, unless the customer for NAVAREA XII 21/23 and NAVAREA XII 22/23 notices decides to cancel them, it seems to me that the resolution of these conflicts and near-conflicts is for Starlink to launch NET Jan 19. After that, NAVAREA XII 22/23 may or may not disrupt the remaining windows in the Starlink reservation.

And by the way, I have a prediction of the precise launch times on Jan 18-19. Previous Starlink 2-4 launch opportunities as shown on Celestrak SupGP were separated by 23:46:10 (24 hr minus 13 min 50 sec). Using that separation and starting from Jan 15 at 16:18:40 UTC (h/t Celestrak), I calculate Jan 18 at 15:37:10 UTC or Jan 19 at 15:23:20... in case you believe the analogy.

Offline catdlr

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Launch Alert <[email protected]>
8:51 PM (6 minutes ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Thursday, January 19.


Note from me: The recent stream of Pacific Storms is generating large swells. Reports of large waves hitting offshore oil rigs are an indication of that.

UPDATE:  The above notice was in error the following is the corrected version:

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
9:13 PM (2 hours ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Wednesday, January 18 at approximately 0732 PST.
« Last Edit: 01/14/2023 06:36 am by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline SpaceFinnOriginal

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Launch Alert <[email protected]>
8:51 PM (6 minutes ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Thursday, January 19.


Note from me: The recent stream of Pacific Storms is generating large swells. Reports of large waves hitting offshore oil rigs are an indication of that.

UPDATE:  The above notice was in error the following is the corrected version:

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
9:13 PM (2 hours ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Wednesday, January 18 at approximately 0732 PST.
Spacex.com says that launch is targeted on January 19th.

Offline soltasto

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Updated "press kit" capture with OCR

Offline catdlr

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UPDATE:  The above notice was in error the following is the corrected version:

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
9:13 PM (2 hours ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Wednesday, January 18 at approximately 0732 PST.


Quote
Spacex.com says that the launch is targeted for January 19th.


Launching at VASF is difficult this time of the year with all the approaching storm fronts, High winds aloft, and choppy seas. Eventually, it will settle out after February (although climate change has made it stronger this year). Otherwise, it's an always-changing launch window. 
« Last Edit: 01/14/2023 10:01 pm by catdlr »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline alugobi

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The tug and recovery boat NRC Quest are currently lying low in Long Beach.  It's raining like a monsoon in SoCal today, going to continue into Monday.  SX are now calling for Thursday.  Probably wise to give this extra day, considering how it's been going lately, weatherwise. 

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