ESA in discussion with SpaceX on launch requirements

[hektor]

Exclusive: Europe eyes Musk's SpaceX to replace Russian rockets

[jstrotha0975]

No, this can't be true, Anyone but spaceX...

[edkyle99]

Would be "temporary" to bridge a gap.  SpaceX one of several options.  Japan and India are other options.  Soyuz was only flying once or twice a year from Kourou, so this probably would not amount to a large number of flights.

 - Ed Kyle

[hektor]

It was suggested a few weeks ago in Ars Technica that Euclid was a possible candidate.

[M.E.T.]

That’s the power that utter market dominance gives you.

Even the harshest critics are forced to come begging. Amazon Kuiper stands alone in their willingness to throw vast amounts of cash needlessly into the fire just to spite their competitor.

I’m thoroughly enjoying events as they play out. And this enjoyment is what the “supporters of more competition” in the launch industry want to rob us of?

No thank you. Long may the dominance continue.

[Jim]

That’s the power that utter market dominance gives you.

Even the harshest critics are forced to come begging. Amazon Kuiper stands alone in their willingness to throw vast amounts of cash needlessly into the fire just to spite their competitor.

I’m thoroughly enjoying events as they play out. And this enjoyment is what the “supporters of more competition” in the launch industry want to rob us of?

No thank you. Long may the dominance continue.

This is idiotic.  I don't want one car, one plane, etc

[M.E.T.]

That’s the power that utter market dominance gives you.

Even the harshest critics are forced to come begging. Amazon Kuiper stands alone in their willingness to throw vast amounts of cash needlessly into the fire just to spite their competitor.

I’m thoroughly enjoying events as they play out. And this enjoyment is what the “supporters of more competition” in the launch industry want to rob us of?

No thank you. Long may the dominance continue.

This is idiotic.  I don't want one car, one plane, etc

Far be it for me to tell you what to want or not want🤷‍♂️.

I, on the other hand, greatly enjoy SpaceX’s dominance. It all goes into funding the Mars program.

[freddo411]

Wow.  A lot of tears over buying a couple of flights.

I wonder if a European will accuse ESA of subsidizing SX so therefore more money should go to building another ariane  throw away booster

[hektor]

This is a parenthesis. There is a de facto F9 near monopoly due to geopolitical circumstances (Ukraine) and delays in development of some competitors.

But in a few years there will be new vehicles, etc. and the parenthesis will be over.

[Jim]

I, on the other hand, greatly enjoy SpaceX’s dominance. It all goes into funding the Mars program.

You think

[M.E.T.]

Wow.  A lot of tears over buying a couple of flights.

I wonder if a European will accuse ESA of subsidizing SX so therefore more money should go to building another ariane  throw away booster

Yep, aren’t these the guys who have basically been accusing SpaceX of underhanded shenanigans for selling F9 launches “below cost price” thanks to supposedly being cross subsidised by the US military and NASA?

Guess that cross subsidisation is now quite palatable for them.😀

[DanClemmensen]

This is a parenthesis. There is a de facto F9 near monopoly due to geopolitical circumstances (Ukraine) and delays in development of some competitors.

But in a few years there will be new vehicles, etc. and the parenthesis will be over.

Indeed. In a few years, SpaceX will retire the F9/FH when a new rocket with vastly superior economic performance becomes operational. Now what rocket might that be?

[ZachS09]

This is a parenthesis. There is a de facto F9 near monopoly due to geopolitical circumstances (Ukraine) and delays in development of some competitors.

But in a few years there will be new vehicles, etc. and the parenthesis will be over.

Indeed. In a few years, SpaceX will retire the F9/FH when a new rocket with vastly superior economic performance becomes operational. Now what rocket might that be?

Uh, this monstrosity that is both shiny and buff. And it claims it can rule the world.

[Jim]

This is a parenthesis. There is a de facto F9 near monopoly due to geopolitical circumstances (Ukraine) and delays in development of some competitors.

But in a few years there will be new vehicles, etc. and the parenthesis will be over.

Indeed. In a few years, SpaceX will retire the F9/FH when a new rocket with vastly superior economic performance becomes operational. Now what rocket might that be?

Stop

[meekGee]

That’s the power that utter market dominance gives you.

Even the harshest critics are forced to come begging. Amazon Kuiper stands alone in their willingness to throw vast amounts of cash needlessly into the fire just to spite their competitor.

I’m thoroughly enjoying events as they play out. And this enjoyment is what the “supporters of more competition” in the launch industry want to rob us of?

No thank you. Long may the dominance continue.

This is idiotic.  I don't want one car, one plane, etc

Well his point was that for sure ESA doesn't want that either.

But here we are.

[wannamoonbase]

I, on the other hand, greatly enjoy SpaceX’s dominance. It all goes into funding the Mars program.

You think

It may not all be getting to funding Mars settlement, but it's not funding bloated intentionally inefficient defense companies either.

SpaceX has established the capacity and launch cadence to absorb demand.  It's working well for them, Putin just helped them out.

The US should have gotten off Russian engines long ago.  But for some reason we thought building rocket engines was insurmountably expensive.  If only all that time and money spent on the J2X engine had gone to something useful.

[RedLineTrain]

It's fair to say that the invasion of Ukraine at the moment when the rocket fleets worldwide are turning over has put everybody except SpaceX in a bind.

So far, SpaceX is managing the transition well.  Rather than "this is what dominance gives you," I would say "this is what reusability gives you."

[Hyperborealis]

This is what vertical integration gets you--resilience to supply-chain shocks.

[DanClemmensen]

It's fair to say that the invasion of Ukraine at the moment when the rocket fleets worldwide are turning over has put everybody except SpaceX in a bind.

So far, SpaceX is managing the transition well.  Rather than "this is what dominance gives you," I would say "this is what reusability gives you."

Some of this is luck. SpaceX's business model is that Starlink is a reliable low-priority customer, so they will pretty much always have a launcher available for a higher-priority customer who is willing to pay for it. I don't think SpaceX anticipated the sudden surge in demand for F9 launches, but they were able to accommodate it almost by accident.

[M.E.T.]

It's fair to say that the invasion of Ukraine at the moment when the rocket fleets worldwide are turning over has put everybody except SpaceX in a bind.

So far, SpaceX is managing the transition well.  Rather than "this is what dominance gives you," I would say "this is what reusability gives you."

Some of this is luck. SpaceX's business model is that Starlink is a reliable low-priority customer, so they will pretty much always have a launcher available for a higher-priority customer who is willing to pay for it. I don't think SpaceX anticipated the sudden surge in demand for F9 launches, but they were able to accommodate it almost by accident.

Well, back when they landed their first booster they had a production capacity of around 12 expendable F9 rockets per year. Now that they only have to produce maybe 4 or so boosters a year, the freed up capacity is churning out 2nd stages by the truck load.

SpaceX basically has unlimited launch capacity at this point. There might be additional ramp-up costs to jump past temporary production ceilings at various levels, but if sufficient demand exists they can pretty much pump out as many launches as their launch facilities can accommodate.