You're right that the military (among other customers) probably doesn't want too much industry consolidation, lest we end up in a monopoly or even duopoly situation, but between SpaceX, Rocket Lab, Northrop Grumman (in this hypothetical), and Blue Origin (likely having purchased ULA) pursuing this sort of vertically-integrated strategy, I think there will be enough competitors. Especially if Lockheed Martin buys ABL and they actually build a medium-or-larger vehicle, but that's a bit more speculative than Northrop buying Firefly.
With Firefly on sale. Will NG just buy it?
Or this is too risky for defense prime?
Lockheed Martin is extremely heavily invested in ABL, and I think a few other new-space small-sat launcher companies. So it seems like this is probably not too risky for a defense prime. Of course, LM haven't outright bought ABL, so maybe this is riskier. On the other hand, ABL doesn't have any in-space projects to make money aside from their launcher, and Firefly does.
With Firefly on sale. Will NG just buy it?
Or this is too risky for defense prime?
Lockheed Martin is extremely heavily invested in ABL, and I think a few other new-space small-sat launcher companies. So it seems like this is probably not too risky for a defense prime. Of course, LM haven't outright bought ABL, so maybe this is riskier. On the other hand, ABL doesn't have any in-space projects to make money aside from their launcher, and Firefly does.
LM throwing a huge order to Firefly today. Maybe they are actively thinking about this now.
With Firefly on sale. Will NG just buy it?
Or this is too risky for defense prime?
Lockheed Martin is extremely heavily invested in ABL, and I think a few other new-space small-sat launcher companies. So it seems like this is probably not too risky for a defense prime. Of course, LM haven't outright bought ABL, so maybe this is riskier. On the other hand, ABL doesn't have any in-space projects to make money aside from their launcher, and Firefly does.
LM throwing a huge order to Firefly today. Maybe they are actively thinking about this now.
Alternately, it could be that LM had a bunch of launches that were supposed to fly on ABL's RS1, but that rocket has been significantly delayed, and so LM has payloads on the ground in desperate need of a launch vehicle. And Firefly Alpha is the only even partially-available vehicle which meets their requirements.
Alternately, it could be that LM had a bunch of launches that were supposed to fly on ABL's RS1, but that rocket has been significantly delayed, and so LM has payloads on the ground in desperate need of a launch vehicle. And Firefly Alpha is the only even partially-available vehicle which meets their requirements.
If this is true, and it seems plausible to me, I wonder if we'll see more launch customers making moves like this. Just a couple years ago it looked like we'd have a bunch of 1-ton-to-LEO LVs coming online, and only one has actually materialized. That's got to have left some payloads in limbo somewhere.
Alternately, it could be that LM had a bunch of launches that were supposed to fly on ABL's RS1, but that rocket has been significantly delayed, and so LM has payloads on the ground in desperate need of a launch vehicle. And Firefly Alpha is the only even partially-available vehicle which meets their requirements.
If this is true, and it seems plausible to me, I wonder if we'll see more launch customers making moves like this. Just a couple years ago it looked like we'd have a bunch of 1-ton-to-LEO LVs coming online, and only one has actually materialized. That's got to have left some payloads in limbo somewhere.
I know that Rocket Lab talked about picking up payloads from other companies which failed to launch (like Astra and Virgin Orbit), and it wouldn't surprise me if Firefly is seeing (and continues to see) a similar boon with payloads that don't fit on Electron.
If this is true, and it seems plausible to me, I wonder if we'll see more launch customers making moves like this. Just a couple years ago it looked like we'd have a bunch of 1-ton-to-LEO LVs coming online, and only one has actually materialized. That's got to have left some payloads in limbo somewhere.
ABSL's RS1 will do 1350 kg to LEO and is supposed to launch this month. Stoke Space's Nova will do ~2 tonnes to LEO fully reusable starting in ~2026. (There's also Minotaur-C and Minotaur IV but they don't seem to be priced competitively enough to actually launch much so who cares.) So Firefly Alpha is the only American launch vehicle in its class that's had a successful flight right now but it won't stay that way for long.
Stoke's Nova is a lot more than 2 tonnes now. More like 3-5 tonnes reusable.
Stoke's Nova is a lot more than 2 tonnes now. More like 3-5 tonnes reusable.
You're right, I misremembered. Here's the best info on Nova that I'm aware of:
I had a copy of their PUG. They're stating for three different conditions: 3mT fully reusable, 5mT with first stage reuse but upper stage expended, and 7mT fully expendable.
Nova is ~3x bigger than Firefly Alpha but with full re-usability Nova has a good chance of being cheaper per launch and eating Alpha's lunch.
I was very pleased to see this. The first full duration hot-fire is really the moment when vehicle starts to feel real to me. They still have a long way to go before they get Antares 330 flying, but with this, they've definitively overcome what was probably the biggest hurdle.