Author Topic: STS 116: Saturday Weather  (Read 17517 times)

Offline astrobrian

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STS 116: Saturday Weather
« on: 12/09/2006 03:51 AM »

Shall we try again :)

 

Currently still 70% with the info I heard last 


Offline Andrewwski

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #1 on: 12/09/2006 03:54 AM »
70% chance of weather prohibiting launch.  That's 30% chance of acceptable launch weather.

Not looking too great.
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Offline astrobrian

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #2 on: 12/09/2006 05:59 AM »
Florida Today is quoting it now at 60% no-go ,  so we are back where we were there other day I guess

Offline Johnny Rönnberg

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #3 on: 12/09/2006 11:05 AM »
Some updates on the weather at the TAL-sites?
"You see one Earth, you've seen them all."

Online DaveS

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #4 on: 12/09/2006 11:31 AM »
Quote
Johnny Rönnberg - 9/12/2006  12:48 PM

Some updates on the weather at the TAL-sites?
Te Spaceflight Meteorology Group at JSC in charge of weather forecasting at the various abort sites holds Moron, Spain and Istres, France as go for launch.

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
100 PM CST FRIDAY DECEMBER 08 2006

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-116

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      0147Z
                DATE:      12/10/06

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT030 SCT200                  7              04012P18
      CHC BKN030 CHC SHRA WI 20

 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

 ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
 ZZA  SCT040 SCT250                  7              30010P15
      SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20

 MORON...SPAIN
 MRN  FEW020                         7              04006P09


 ISTRES...FRANCE
 FMI  FEW030 SCT150                  7              35009P16


 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
 KSC  SCT030 SCT200                  7              04012P18
      CHC BKN030 CHC SHRA WI 30

 PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/10/06 06Z TO 12/10/06 07Z
 EDW  SCT050 SCT200                  7              22010P18
      CHC BKN060 SLGT CHC SHRA WI 30

 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/PRECIP/XWIND
 NOR ... NONE
 EDW ... CIG/PRECIP
 ZZA ... PRECIP
 MRN ... NONE
 FMI ... NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED 09/1300

 KSC ...KENNEDY SPACE CENTER...FL
       ICAO ID IS KTTS
 NOR ...NORTHRUP STRIP WHITE SANDS SPACE HARBOR...NM
       ICAO ID IS KE28 (KHMN IS NEARBY)
 EDW ...EDWARDS AIR FORCE BASE...CA
       ICAO ID IS KEDW
 ZZA...ZARAGOZA SPAIN
       ICAO ID IS LEZG
 MRN...MORON SPAIN
       ICAO ID IS LEMO
 FMI...ISTRES FRANCE
       ICAO ID IS LFMI

KAS/TDO/BRH
"For Sardines, space is no problem!"
-1996 Astronaut class slogan

"We're rolling in the wrong direction but for the right reasons"
-USA engineer about the rollback of Discovery prior to the STS-114 Return To Flight mission

Offline Johnny Rönnberg

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #5 on: 12/09/2006 11:47 AM »
Thanks! :)
"You see one Earth, you've seen them all."

Offline eeergo

Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #6 on: 12/09/2006 11:53 AM »
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteusnational/southeastussatellite_large_animated.html

Pretty useful animated weather link. Gordo posted it the other day.
-DaviD-

Offline eeergo

Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #7 on: 12/09/2006 12:07 PM »
Mmmm... I think I understand the 60-70% "no go" for today... look at those horrible clouds coming from the Gulf! I hope they pass by for launch time...
-DaviD-

Offline TALsite

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #8 on: 12/09/2006 12:36 PM »
ZARAGOZA

From INM Spain
Expected:

Rain probabilities:  now 20% turning to 5% in next 12 hours.
Winds: now 29 km/h W -  turning to 22 NW in next 12 hours.
Temp: Max 12 º C  Min  6º C

Looking from my window, we have NOW a SUNNY day with light winds.
Perfect to salute a Shuttle Launch…


Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #9 on: 12/09/2006 01:51 PM »
DaveS - you posted yesterday's forecast. Eerrgo - those clouds over the Gulf are not approaching KSC. TAL is not a problem, this is all on KSC... Winds are the biggest concern - since it is a night launch they have very little leeway.

 NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
 SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
 LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
 HOUSTON TX              77058
 705 AM CST SATURDAY DECEMBER 09 2006
 
 LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-116                                              
 
 EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      0147Z
                 DATE:      12/10/06
 
  RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES                  
  SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL        
  KSC  SCT040 BKN200                  7              06012P18  
       CHC BKN040 CHC SHRA WI 20          
                                                 
  TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES  
 
  ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
  ZZA  SCT035                         7              30012P18            
       CHC BKN035 CHC SHRA WI 20                                            
 
  MORON...SPAIN
  MRN  SCT030                         7              06012P18        
                                         
 
  ISTRES...FRANCE
  FMI  SCT030                         7              33012P18        
                                               
                                           
  ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
  NOR  FEW050                         7              22008P12  
                                                   
                                         
  PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/10/06 06Z TO 12/10/06 07Z              
  EDW  BKN040                         7              21015P25  
       SHRA WI 30                                  
                                           
  FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
  KSC ... CIG/PRECIP/XWIND
  EDW ... CIG/PRECIP
  NOR ... NONE
  ZZA ... CIG/PRECIP
  MRN ... NONE
  FMI ... NONE

Offline Avron

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #10 on: 12/09/2006 02:43 PM »
Rob

What is the WX trend in your view...i.e would it help, if launch is targeted for the start of the window or the latter half of the window?

Offline Jim

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #11 on: 12/09/2006 02:50 PM »
10 minute window isn't going to help either way, too short

Offline Avron

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #12 on: 12/09/2006 02:56 PM »
Jim do you think that any new procedures would be put in place for today so wx calls would be more realtime... thinking of some of the notes on L2 for the last attempt? looks like another min may have allowed a launch Thursday.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #13 on: 12/09/2006 03:15 PM »
As we saw Thursday, the 'window' really doesn't help much with the amount of variability expected. When it comes to winds tonight, the later you go the lighter they'll become but again 10 minutes is in the microscale and not forecastable.

Offline Ender0319

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #14 on: 12/09/2006 03:17 PM »
I'm told that targeting for the start of the window results in more propellant to be burned as you'd need to burn more prop out-of-plane to put the vehicle into the more desired orbital plane (hence launching in the middle of the window into the desired orbit).

Quote
Avron - 9/12/2006  9:26 AM

Rob

What is the WX trend in your view...i.e would it help, if launch is targeted for the start of the window or the latter half of the window?

Offline Jim

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #15 on: 12/09/2006 03:18 PM »
Not really involved to know if they have.  The Range is a totally separate organization and is also Air Force.  It gives the Range weather officer gives wx calls based on requirements provided by Range Safety and user (STS).  There is a finite amount of time to make an assessment.

Offline astrobrian

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #16 on: 12/09/2006 03:32 PM »
Live shot CNN just now had the camera moving significantly due to wind, but not a cloud in the sky, at least I could not see any

Offline barassa

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #17 on: 12/09/2006 03:39 PM »
Astrobrian- I am currently at the Cape, and the skies are very clear.  It is windy though, and the clouds building over the Gulf (as seen on satellite images) don't look promising.  I'm packing my 5 kids into the van and heading for KSC momentarily.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #18 on: 12/09/2006 06:35 PM »
Winds at the landing facility are only 9kts right now, not sure why (but not complaining ;> ) WX is all GREEN currently here and at TAL.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #19 on: 12/09/2006 07:14 PM »
Slight improvement in the latest, they took out precip in the RTLS and PLS forecasts (never saw much reason to have that in there in the first place.) RTLS winds though still close tro out of limits for crosswind.

NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / ZS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
147 PM CST SATURDAY DECEMBER 09 2006

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-116

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      0147Z
                DATE:      12/10/06

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT035 BKN060 BKN250           7              06012P18
      CHC BKN030

 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

 ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
 ZZA  SCT040                         7              33007P11
      CHC BKN040 SLGT CHC SHRA WI 20

 MORON...SPAIN
 MRN  SCT030                         7              03008P12
      PATCHY GROUND FOG

 ISTRES...FRANCE
 FMI  SCT030 BKN130                  7              35007P10


 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
 KSC  SCT030 BKN050 BKN250           7              06012P18
      CHC BKN030

 PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 12/10/06 06Z TO 12/10/06 07Z
 EDW  SCT050 SCT200                  7              22010P18
      SLGT CHC BKN050

 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... CIG/XWIND
 NOR ... CIG
 EDW ... CIG
 ZZA ... CIG/PRECIP
 MRN ... NONE
 FMI ... NONE

Offline Avron

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #20 on: 12/09/2006 07:35 PM »
Rob
see any trend yet that may change things?

Offline riceville98

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #21 on: 12/09/2006 07:38 PM »
What are the gut feelings on weather today Rob?

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #22 on: 12/09/2006 07:51 PM »
My gut apparently was right Thursday - just not fast enough on the button ;> Still feel good tonight, actually feel very good. Looking at the clouds over the Atlantic (remember our winds are from the east, so not the low clouds over the Gulf) they aren't that widespread. Plenty of clear slots in there. Clouds over the Gulf that are moving in are very thin and very high, so no concern there.

Winds all around KSC arearound 15kts, but for whatever reason at the landing facility still only 9kts. As long as that keeps up, we'll stay green, although PAO just mentioned a concern for showers but that's not in any forecast I can find...

Offline riceville98

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #23 on: 12/09/2006 07:59 PM »
Thanks

Offline Avron

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #24 on: 12/09/2006 08:13 PM »
"Still feel good tonight, actually feel very good."

I guess we can plan for a launch then... ;)

Online DaveS

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #25 on: 12/09/2006 09:07 PM »
Current look at the "weather board":
"For Sardines, space is no problem!"
-1996 Astronaut class slogan

"We're rolling in the wrong direction but for the right reasons"
-USA engineer about the rollback of Discovery prior to the STS-114 Return To Flight mission

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #26 on: 12/09/2006 09:20 PM »
Latest SLF observations, thanks to Rob's link from earlier:
http://uswx.com/us/stn/?code=c&n=60&stn=KTTS

METAR KTTS 092155Z 03007KT 10SM FEW040 BKN200 18/09 A3038 RMK SLP288 1SC /0/ 6CI /3/

I don't know what to read into it, if anything, but the winds haven't yet shifted around to 060, which would be at right angle to the SLF runways...

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #27 on: 12/09/2006 09:21 PM »
Winds have subsided at TTS to 7 knots now, with neighboring sites no longer gusting > 15kts and actually sustained winds are dropping too, only around 8-10kts! No clouds of concern at any observing site in EC Florida.

Direction has been 030-040 lately at TTS, all locations aroundhave been 060-080.

Offline eeergo

Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #28 on: 12/09/2006 10:13 PM »
Good trend in winds reported, let's have high hopes, shall we :)
-DaviD-

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #29 on: 12/09/2006 10:21 PM »
Winds still out of the northeast at 7kts as of 6pm, all sites continue to see lower speeds and I can't see a reason for that to suddenly change... Winds remain gusty right along the shoreline, but that's not translating far inland.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/Images/KSCMNET.GIF

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #30 on: 12/09/2006 10:23 PM »
Hourly SLF observation:

METAR KTTS 092255Z 03007KT 10SM FEW040 BKN200 16/09 A3038 RMK SLP288 1SC /0/ 6CI /2/ N0505/08 C0606/09 S0307/13

No change in wind speed or direction...

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #31 on: 12/09/2006 10:27 PM »
The last three sets are the wind readings at the north / center / south parts of the runway, note only the south end gusting to 13kts but that's still within limits...

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #32 on: 12/09/2006 10:32 PM »
Quote
rdale - 9/12/2006  6:10 PM

The last three sets are the wind readings at the north / center / south parts of the runway, note only the south end gusting to 13kts but that's still within limits...
Interesting...I see that the direction varies, too -- is 03007 an average of "N0505/08 C0606/09 S0307/13" ?

Thanks for the pointers and translation.

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #33 on: 12/09/2006 10:44 PM »
No, that's the primary reporting site. I tried to find TTS airport plates, it's probably listed there, but coming up empty in a quick search...

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #34 on: 12/09/2006 10:49 PM »
A current check of the "weather board" indicates that all weather LCCs are "green":
"For Sardines, space is no problem!"
-1996 Astronaut class slogan

"We're rolling in the wrong direction but for the right reasons"
-USA engineer about the rollback of Discovery prior to the STS-114 Return To Flight mission

Offline Ender0319

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #35 on: 12/09/2006 11:02 PM »
Unofficial 30% NO-GO weather prediction now.

Offline HKS

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RE: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #36 on: 12/09/2006 11:04 PM »
30% has just been announced on NASA TV!


Edit: Chris, you should change the weather icon on the STS-116 LIVE web-page to GO now...  ;)

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #37 on: 12/09/2006 11:05 PM »
Yeah, an intermediate observation:

SPECI KTTS 092325Z 03006KT 10SM FEW040 BKN210 16/08 A3038 RMK SLP288 1SC /0/ 6CI /1/ N0505/09 C0605/08 S0306/11

Looks like the wind is still trending lower...

Offline Avron

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #38 on: 12/09/2006 11:13 PM »
Got to like that Trend..

Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #39 on: 12/09/2006 11:20 PM »
KTTS 092355Z 02005KT 10SM FEW040 BKN210 16/09 A3039 RMK SLP291 1SC /0/ 6CI /1/ N0505/08 C0605/09 S0205/10 53003

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #40 on: 12/09/2006 11:26 PM »
Sure seems like they made a good choice to press for tanking tonight.  (Or, well, earlier today.)

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #41 on: 12/09/2006 11:27 PM »
TAL status from 2 minutes ago:
"For Sardines, space is no problem!"
-1996 Astronaut class slogan

"We're rolling in the wrong direction but for the right reasons"
-USA engineer about the rollback of Discovery prior to the STS-114 Return To Flight mission

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #42 on: 12/09/2006 11:30 PM »
Bill Harwood says that the crosswind limits can be raised to 17kts if the STA considers it to be acceptable, however the criteria I have (updated 2006) says that is only for daytime launches...

Online DaveS

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #43 on: 12/09/2006 11:35 PM »
00:14 UTC check of "weather board":
"For Sardines, space is no problem!"
-1996 Astronaut class slogan

"We're rolling in the wrong direction but for the right reasons"
-USA engineer about the rollback of Discovery prior to the STS-114 Return To Flight mission

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #44 on: 12/09/2006 11:54 PM »
Latest observation:

SPECI KTTS 100025Z 04005KT 10SM FEW040 BKN210 15/09 A3040 RMK SLP295 1SC /0/ 6CI /1/ N0505/09 C0603/07 S0405/08

Offline mkirk

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #45 on: 12/09/2006 11:56 PM »
Quote
rdale - 9/12/2006  6:13 PM

Bill Harwood says that the crosswind limits can be raised to 17kts if the STA considers it to be acceptable, however the criteria I have (updated 2006) says that is only for daytime launches...

No, Like Bill said 17 at night is allowed if STA approves.

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Offline rdale

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #46 on: 12/09/2006 11:59 PM »
Here are the criteria from the latest version:

"The RTLS, TAL, AOA and PLS crosswind component may not exceed 15 knots. For RTLS, if the astronaut flying weather reconnaissance in the Shuttle Training Aircraft flies the approach and considers the landing conditions to be acceptable, the daytime limit may be increased to 17 knots."

By my measurements, it's not daytime there ;>

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #47 on: 12/10/2006 12:07 AM »
Quote
rdale - 9/12/2006  7:42 PM

By my measurements, it's not daytime there ;>


Expect that to change at 20:47:35

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #48 on: 12/10/2006 12:18 AM »
Latest observation (well, reported observation):

METAR KTTS 100055Z 05005KT 10SM FEW040 BKN210 16/09 A3041 RMK SLP298 1SC /0/ 5CI /1/ N0605/07 C0704/07 S0505/09

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #49 on: 12/10/2006 12:47 AM »
Observation from about 15 minutes ago; waiting for the next one...winds still look good.

SPECI KTTS 100110Z 04004KT 10SM FEW040 SCT210 15/09 A3041 RMK SLP298 1SC /0/ 4CI /1/ N0604/08 C0703/07 S0404/08

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #50 on: 12/10/2006 12:52 AM »
Here's the latest from a few minutes ago, just before the final polls start, a little bump up, but still looks good at the SLF:

SPECI KTTS 100125Z 05005KT 10SM FEW040 SCT210 15/09 A3041 RMK SLP298 1SC /0/ 4CI /1/ N0605/09 C0704/07 S0505/08

Offline psloss

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #51 on: 12/10/2006 01:36 AM »
For grins, here's the observation at launch time:

SPECI KTTS 100147Z 05005KT 10SM FEW040 BKN210 15/09 A3041 RMK SLP298 1SC /0/ 6CI /2/ N0705/09 C0806/09 S0505/08

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #52 on: 12/10/2006 01:46 AM »
You called it once again Rob

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #53 on: 12/10/2006 01:53 AM »
Tonight's weather is yet another example of why they tank when the forecast is marginal.  This -- no-go forecast, go at launch time -- has happened enough times that it's memorable.  (More than enough times.)

It also wouldn't surprise me at all to find that the weather on Tuesday turns out to be "no-go."

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Re: STS 116: Saturday Weather
« Reply #54 on: 12/10/2006 02:35 AM »
Heard from Bill Harwood and he says that JSC insists the criteria can be modified to 17kts day or night, it's the end-of-mission that cannot... Have to say I'm shocked to think that the info they release publicly doesn't match what they use internally ;>

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