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#960
by
Jim
on 07 Aug, 2023 15:46
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I might feel tempted to expect NASA to notify Boeing later this year that no more Starliner flights will be contracted once the CFT and all six operational Starliner missions are completed because Boeing has proven time and time again the true underdog in getting a new-generation manned spacecraft into orbit.
There should be no such expectation.
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#961
by
DanClemmensen
on 07 Aug, 2023 16:40
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If NASA agrees, there is no further need for Starliner, and NASA and Boeing would be in better shape if they simply agreed to cancel Starliner now.
not true
You are correct: I was
stating an opinion and I should have made that clear. Sorry.
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#962
by
DanClemmensen
on 07 Aug, 2023 16:49
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*snip*
I speculate that the cost to ULA to keep Atlas V operational until 2030 to support only a single customer will be high. Boeing owns 50% of ULA, so this cost will hurt Boeing also. The Starliner 2014 contract was fixed price, IDIQ (indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity), originally for from two to six flights, but in 2018 Boeing forced a change committing NASA to buy all six, so it's now "IDFQ". Boeing is stuck with this and NASA has no particular reason to be nice to them.
SpaceX claims that each Crew Dragon capsule is now good for 15 uses. If NASA agrees, there is no further need for Starliner, and NASA and Boeing would be in better shape if they simply agreed to cancel Starliner now.
Cost for ULA continuing to support Atlas is not high. The high bay at LC-41 is already configured for dual-use.
Boeing wouldn't be in better shape, they'd be missing out on all the milestone-based payments they haven't achieved yet. They want to claw back as much of their losses as they can.
You would need to be an accountant with access to Boeing's books to know if the operational missions are profitable. I was making a completely unsubstantiated guess that their costs will exceed their price, and I should have stated this.
I understand you point, but a minor quibble: I think CFT would be a "milestone" payment. The operational flights are not milestones in the technical sense.
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#963
by
whitelancer64
on 07 Aug, 2023 17:29
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*snip*
I speculate that the cost to ULA to keep Atlas V operational until 2030 to support only a single customer will be high. Boeing owns 50% of ULA, so this cost will hurt Boeing also. The Starliner 2014 contract was fixed price, IDIQ (indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity), originally for from two to six flights, but in 2018 Boeing forced a change committing NASA to buy all six, so it's now "IDFQ". Boeing is stuck with this and NASA has no particular reason to be nice to them.
SpaceX claims that each Crew Dragon capsule is now good for 15 uses. If NASA agrees, there is no further need for Starliner, and NASA and Boeing would be in better shape if they simply agreed to cancel Starliner now.
Cost for ULA continuing to support Atlas is not high. The high bay at LC-41 is already configured for dual-use.
Boeing wouldn't be in better shape, they'd be missing out on all the milestone-based payments they haven't achieved yet. They want to claw back as much of their losses as they can.
You would need to be an accountant with access to Boeing's books to know if the operational missions are profitable. I was making a completely unsubstantiated guess that their costs will exceed their price, and I should have stated this.
I understand you point, but a minor quibble: I think CFT would be a "milestone" payment. The operational flights are not milestones in the technical sense.
I'm not sure if completing all six flights will make Starliner profitable, but even if the end result is a net loss, getting as many payments from NASA as possible will reduce the losses they have had so far.
Yes, CFT is a milestone payment, as is completing the NASA certification review before operational flights. Each operational crew rotation flight is not a milestone per se, but AIUI money gets paid out for each completed crew flight.
The remaining milestones for Boeing are:
Crewed Flight Test Design Certification Review (This is where they are having issues now)
Crewed Flight Test Flight Test Readiness Review
Crewed Flight Test
Operational Readiness Review
Certification Review
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#964
by
DanClemmensen
on 07 Aug, 2023 19:26
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I'm not sure if completing all six flights will make Starliner profitable, but even if the end result is a net loss, getting as many payments from NASA as possible will reduce the losses they have had so far.
This is true only if each operational flight is profitable. It probably is, but we don't know that for sure. Boeing initially costed them out in 2014 (updated in 2018) and bid a fixed price based on a set of assumptions that included such things as an initial launch in or before 2020 and a continuing availability of Atlas V or Vulcan at some specific projected cost per launch. I
speculate that these costs may have risen.
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#965
by
Ben Baley
on 07 Aug, 2023 19:43
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*snip*
I speculate that the cost to ULA to keep Atlas V operational until 2030 to support only a single customer will be high. Boeing owns 50% of ULA, so this cost will hurt Boeing also. The Starliner 2014 contract was fixed price, IDIQ (indefinite delivery, indefinite quantity), originally for from two to six flights, but in 2018 Boeing forced a change committing NASA to buy all six, so it's now "IDFQ". Boeing is stuck with this and NASA has no particular reason to be nice to them.
SpaceX claims that each Crew Dragon capsule is now good for 15 uses. If NASA agrees, there is no further need for Starliner, and NASA and Boeing would be in better shape if they simply agreed to cancel Starliner now.
Cost for ULA continuing to support Atlas is not high. The high bay at LC-41 is already configured for dual-use.
Boeing wouldn't be in better shape, they'd be missing out on all the milestone-based payments they haven't achieved yet. They want to claw back as much of their losses as they can.
You would need to be an accountant with access to Boeing's books to know if the operational missions are profitable. I was making a completely unsubstantiated guess that their costs will exceed their price, and I should have stated this.
I understand you point, but a minor quibble: I think CFT would be a "milestone" payment. The operational flights are not milestones in the technical sense.
I don't think it's likely that Boeing will be losing money on operational flights.
They're the ones who proposed the original terms of the contract, and operational costs should've been the easiest to predict. I find it unbelievable that they were planning on subsidizing the operational costs with profits from development milestones.
While it seems likely that the development problems mean they'll never show a profit on the program overall, getting paid for doing all the flights should reduce their losses, not increase them.
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#966
by
yg1968
on 07 Aug, 2023 19:52
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I might feel tempted to expect NASA to notify Boeing later this year that no more Starliner flights will be contracted once the CFT and all six operational Starliner missions are completed because Boeing has proven time and time again the true underdog in getting a new-generation manned spacecraft into orbit.
There should be no such expectation.
As it stands, NASA doesn't intend to order any new commercial crew missions from either SpaceX or Boeing since they have enough missions to last them until 2030 when ISS is deorbited. Under the current plans for the Commercial LEO destinations program, the Commercial LEO Destinations provider will actually decide which commercial crew provider they will contract. NASA only requires that the chosen commercial crew provider be certified.
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#967
by
yg1968
on 07 Aug, 2023 20:04
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If NASA agrees, there is no further need for Starliner, and NASA and Boeing would be in better shape if they simply agreed to cancel Starliner now.
not true
You are correct: I was stating an opinion and I should have made that clear. Sorry.
It's incredibly unlikely. This was addressed at the press conference at 21 minutes, NASA wants 2 commercial providers and then wants to alternate between the two providers. Boeing said at 22m30s of the press conference that there was room for additional missions for other (non-NASA) customers outside of the 6 PCM missions and CFT-1 missions.
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#968
by
DanClemmensen
on 07 Aug, 2023 20:13
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I might feel tempted to expect NASA to notify Boeing later this year that no more Starliner flights will be contracted once the CFT and all six operational Starliner missions are completed because Boeing has proven time and time again the true underdog in getting a new-generation manned spacecraft into orbit.
There should be no such expectation.
As it stands, NASA doesn't intend to order any new commercial crew missions from either SpaceX or Boeing since they have enough missions to last them until 2030 when ISS is deorbited. Under the current plans for the Commercial LEO destinations program, the Commercial LEO Destinations provider will actually decide which commercial crew provider they will contract. NASA only requires that the chosen commercial crew provider be certified.
Crew-1 launched 15 November 2020. Crew-7 launches 17 August 2023, so the CCP missions are averaging about 5.5 months instead of 6. twenty mission @ 6 months would end in November 2030. 20 missions at 5.5 months will end in February 2030. I think they need one more than they have unless they want to turn off the lights in February 2030.
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#969
by
yg1968
on 07 Aug, 2023 20:45
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I might feel tempted to expect NASA to notify Boeing later this year that no more Starliner flights will be contracted once the CFT and all six operational Starliner missions are completed because Boeing has proven time and time again the true underdog in getting a new-generation manned spacecraft into orbit.
There should be no such expectation.
As it stands, NASA doesn't intend to order any new commercial crew missions from either SpaceX or Boeing since they have enough missions to last them until 2030 when ISS is deorbited. Under the current plans for the Commercial LEO destinations program, the Commercial LEO Destinations provider will actually decide which commercial crew provider they will contract. NASA only requires that the chosen commercial crew provider be certified.
Crew-1 launched 15 November 2020. Crew-7 launches 17 August 2023, so the CCP missions are averaging about 5.5 months instead of 6. twenty mission @ 6 months would end in November 2030. 20 missions at 5.5 months will end in February 2030. I think they need one more than they have unless they want to turn off the lights in February 2030.
Perhaps one more, hard to say at this point. We don't know when the ISS will be deorbited in 2030. In any event, the extra mission (if any) is more likely to be SpaceX if NASA wants to continue to alternate.
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#970
by
DanClemmensen
on 07 Aug, 2023 21:40
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[Crew-1 launched 15 November 2020. Crew-7 launches 17 August 2023, so the CCP missions are averaging about 5.5 months instead of 6. twenty mission @ 6 months would end in November 2030. 20 missions at 5.5 months will end in February 2030. I think they need one more than they have unless they want to turn off the lights in February 2030.
Perhaps one more, hard to say at this point. We don't know when the ISS will be deorbited in 2030. In any event, the extra mission (if any) is more likely to be SpaceX if NASA wants to continue to alternate.
Yep, Crew Dragon regardless of whose turn it is, because it would be crazy for Boeing to certify on a new rocket for one extra mission in 2030.
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#971
by
abaddon
on 07 Aug, 2023 22:02
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Steve Stich: SpaceX did have some of the tape they were using before the first crewed flight (a couple of places under the floor), that was removed.
Wait, so SpaceX used some of the same tape but removed it before the first crewed flight? That was... a really long time ago? Was it removed because it was deemed to be a hazard? If so, how could it possibly have taken NASA and Boeing this long to do the same with CST? Perhaps SpaceX removed it on their own, but wouldn't NASA have known why it was being removed and think to check to see if it was being used in CST? So many questions....
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#972
by
ZachF
on 07 Aug, 2023 22:07
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I'm not sure if completing all six flights will make Starliner profitable, but even if the end result is a net loss, getting as many payments from NASA as possible will reduce the losses they have had so far.
This is true only if each operational flight is profitable. It probably is, but we don't know that for sure. Boeing initially costed them out in 2014 (updated in 2018) and bid a fixed price based on a set of assumptions that included such things as an initial launch in or before 2020 and a continuing availability of Atlas V or Vulcan at some specific projected cost per launch. I speculate that these costs may have risen.
Interestingly enough, it’s been delayed so long that inflation may have eaten away any potential profit at the agreed price it was sold at.
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#973
by
whitelancer64
on 07 Aug, 2023 22:58
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Steve Stich: SpaceX did have some of the tape they were using before the first crewed flight (a couple of places under the floor), that was removed.
Wait, so SpaceX used some of the same tape but removed it before the first crewed flight? That was... a really long time ago? Was it removed because it was deemed to be a hazard? If so, how could it possibly have taken NASA and Boeing this long to do the same with CST? Perhaps SpaceX removed it on their own, but wouldn't NASA have known why it was being removed and think to check to see if it was being used in CST? So many questions....
I think it means SpaceX had some of the same P-213 tape in its Dragon design, has been flying it with people for 3 years, and now that Boeing found a problem with it, they have removed it.
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#974
by
abaddon
on 08 Aug, 2023 04:01
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Steve Stich: SpaceX did have some of the tape they were using before the first crewed flight (a couple of places under the floor), that was removed.
Wait, so SpaceX used some of the same tape but removed it before the first crewed flight? That was... a really long time ago? Was it removed because it was deemed to be a hazard? If so, how could it possibly have taken NASA and Boeing this long to do the same with CST? Perhaps SpaceX removed it on their own, but wouldn't NASA have known why it was being removed and think to check to see if it was being used in CST? So many questions....
I think it means SpaceX had some of the same P-213 tape in its Dragon design, has been flying it with people for 3 years, and now that Boeing found a problem with it, they have removed it.
The quote is “…were using before first crewed flight” which would indicate they were not using it in the first crewed flight and beyond. I don’t think your interpretation is consistent with the quote.
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#975
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 08 Aug, 2023 04:24
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I thought what Steve said about SpaceX’s use of the tape was a bit ambiguous. Here’s the full quote, at about 44:45
Second question relative to SpaceX - they did have some tape that they were using before the first crewed flight and we were able to remediate that. It was only in a couple of areas under the floor and we were able to take that tape off and so they’re not using the tape in the same application that Boeing is using.
Remediate to me suggests a recent change (knowing that there’s a possible issue) but if so then the reference to the first crewed flight doesn’t make sense?!
Perhaps he meant to say: “… using
from before the first crewed flight”
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#976
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 08 Aug, 2023 04:48
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Interestingly enough, it’s been delayed so long that inflation may have eaten away any potential profit at the agreed price it was sold at.
Cumulative (US) inflation from 2020 to now is about 15% and CFT is still at least 7 months away. Obviously Boeing knew the operational flights would be spread over years, and so would price inflation in, but what starting point did they assume? I bet it wasn’t 2025.
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#977
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 08 Aug, 2023 04:50
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https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/starliner-undergoing-three-independent-investigations-as-flight-slips-to-2024/Starliner undergoing three independent investigations as flight slips to 2024
"The design changes were, I would say, minimal."
ERIC BERGER - 8/7/2023, 10:07 PM
A Boeing official said Monday that the company has delayed a crewed flight test of its Starliner spacecraft until at least March 2024.
The manager for the company's Commercial Crew Program, Mark Nappi, said the spacecraft should be ready for flight by early March, or seven months from now. However, Nappi said that date is conditional on availability of an Atlas V rocket, provided by United Launch Alliance, and an opening in NASA's visiting vehicles schedule.
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#978
by
Vettedrmr
on 08 Aug, 2023 10:11
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Remediate to me suggests a recent change (knowing that there’s a possible issue) but if so then the reference to the first crewed flight doesn’t make sense?!
Perhaps he meant to say: “… using from before the first crewed flight”
Remediate doesn't imply any kind of time frame, just to "remedy" the situation.
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#979
by
Hyperborealis
on 08 Aug, 2023 11:57
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The "they" and "we" pronouns suggest NASA was acting at the same time to make both vendors get rid of the tape. Stich's point is not on timing but rather that SpaceX used much less of the tape and used it in different (easier to remediate?) places than Boeing. He's explaining why the tape is a a serious issue for one vendor and not the other.
Sounds as if NASA decided in the middle of the development process that the tape was no good and had to go. If anything, the timing question reflects poorly on NASA, and not the vendors.