Cross posting this.
Yet more bad news for the Starliner project.
Boeing disclosed a charge of $93 million in the second quarter for its Starliner astronaut capsule program, bringing the program’s overrun costs to nearly $700 million.
The aerospace giant said the latest charge was “primarily driven by launch manifest updates and additional costs associated with OFT-2,” or Orbital Flight Test 2. The second uncrewed flight of Starliner successfully completed a six-day-long mission in May, reaching a critical test objective – docking with the International Space Station – as Boeing prepares for the capsule to carry astronauts.
Boeing’s latest Starliner-related charge means the company has absorbed $688 million in costs from delays and additional work on the capsule to date.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/boeing-starliner-astronaut-capsule-charges-near-700-million.html
That may be "bad" news, but that statement by itself does not imply that the expected crewed flight test at the end of the year will be delayed yet again.
Well it’s certainly bad news for Boeing having to eat those extra costs. And it’s bad optics for the program.
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1550159199472009216
At today’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, Susan Helms says NASA and Boeing still reviewing data from the OFT-2 Starliner mission in May. She notes NASA has seen “improved transparency” from the Boeing team, credited to a change in Boeing management and increased staffing.
Which begs the question. How bad, exactly, in detail, was the transparency before?
Cross posting this.
Yet more bad news for the Starliner project.
Boeing disclosed a charge of $93 million in the second quarter for its Starliner astronaut capsule program, bringing the program’s overrun costs to nearly $700 million.
The aerospace giant said the latest charge was “primarily driven by launch manifest updates and additional costs associated with OFT-2,” or Orbital Flight Test 2. The second uncrewed flight of Starliner successfully completed a six-day-long mission in May, reaching a critical test objective – docking with the International Space Station – as Boeing prepares for the capsule to carry astronauts.
Boeing’s latest Starliner-related charge means the company has absorbed $688 million in costs from delays and additional work on the capsule to date.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/27/boeing-starliner-astronaut-capsule-charges-near-700-million.html
That may be "bad" news, but that statement by itself does not imply that the expected crewed flight test at the end of the year will be delayed yet again.
Well it’s certainly bad news for Boeing having to eat those extra costs. And it’s bad optics for the program.
I think the idea of "bad optics" isn't a good fit. Space fans and the general public are not the customer. Boeing sells to military and government procurers and congress - not the general public. The public has a pretty poor general view of Boeing, but that hasn't ever interrupted the shoveling of money towards them.
Based on current estimates, is there a chance to see Starliner and Crew Dragon at the ISS at the same time?
[zubenelgenubi: I split/merged this not-L2 splinter discussion to the public side discussion thread.]
Based on current estimates, as there a chance to see Starliner and Crew Dragon at the ISS at the same time?
I don't understand the question. Since November 2020 there has always been a Crew Dragon at ISS, right? Thus, when the Starliner CFT flight visits ISS, there will be a Starliner and a Crew Dragon at ISS. When OFT-2 visited ISS, both were there at the same time.
Based on current estimates, as there a chance to see Starliner and Crew Dragon at the ISS at the same time?
I don't understand the question. Since November 2020 there has always been a Crew Dragon at ISS, right? Thus, when the Starliner CFT flight visits ISS, there will be a Starliner and a Crew Dragon at ISS. When OFT-2 visited ISS, both were there at the same time.
There was a brief gap between Crew-2 and Crew-3. No guarantees of that not happening again, and as long as the seat-swap agreement continues it can happen without leaving the ISS without any US crewmembers.
Based on current estimates, as there a chance to see Starliner and Crew Dragon at the ISS at the same time?
I don't understand the question. Since November 2020 there has always been a Crew Dragon at ISS, right? Thus, when the Starliner CFT flight visits ISS, there will be a Starliner and a Crew Dragon at ISS. When OFT-2 visited ISS, both were there at the same time.
There was a brief gap between Crew-2 and Crew-3. No guarantees of that not happening again, and as long as the seat-swap agreement continues it can happen without leaving the ISS without any US crewmembers.
Yep, a 3-day gap due to last-minute scheduling problems meant that the handover did not occur on-station as it is normally supposed to do. If Starliner starts flying in alternation with Crew Dragon as planned, we should expect to see Starliner and Crew Dragon docked concurrently at ISS during every CCP handover, about twice a year. This in addition to any flights that might send a non-CCP Crew Dragon to ISS when a CCP Starliner is present or vice versa. (Sorry of this non-L2 post. I will put any other responses elsewhere.)
The Starliner is the Ford Pinto of manned spacecraft - I'm confident it will get people there, but it has a troubled reputation.
15:14
Joey Roulette - [...] Also, any plans to certify Vulcan for Starliner?
Mark Nappi:"I'll start with the second half first. We are certainly looking at the launch vehicle integration for when we run out of Atlases after PCM-6. So yes, that is actively in work. Our teams are working with the launch vehicle providers for that, and we'll be having to make a decision probably sometime early next year on what we're going to go do as moving forward."
31:09
Stephen Clark: Is Boeing still a launch vehicle agnostic spacecraft, and is Boeing really looking at other providers than ULA?
Mark Nappi: Yes, Boeing is looking at different options; it's just part of the business. Yes, Starliner is launch vehicle agnostic, but not easily so given the need for different adapters and launch operations with different providers.
Interesting that Boeing is looking to choose, early next year, another LV as a successor to Atlas V. There is no rush for this decision. Regardless of which LV they choose, because it is a new commercial crew transportation system, both the LV and the spacecraft will have to be (re-)certified. The most likely scenario is that the new LV and spacecraft would be certified as part the Commercial LEO Destinations program. The Commercial LEO Destinations program (in collaboration with the Commercial Crew Program) has yet to come out with certifications requirements.
Edit: see below.
15:14
Joey Roulette - [...] Also, any plans to certify Vulcan for Starliner?
Mark Nappi:"I'll start with the second half first. We are certainly looking at the launch vehicle integration for when we run out of Atlases after PCM-6. So yes, that is actively in work. Our teams are working with the launch vehicle providers for that, and we'll be having to make a decision probably sometime early next year on what we're going to go do as moving forward."
31:09
Stephen Clark: Is Boeing still a launch vehicle agnostic spacecraft, and is Boeing really looking at other providers than ULA?
Mark Nappi: Yes, Boeing is looking at different options; it's just part of the business. Yes, Starliner is launch vehicle agnostic, but not easily so given the need for different adapters and launch operations with different providers.
Interesting that Boeing is looking to choose another LV after they run out of Atlas V early next year. There is no rush for this decision. Regardless of which LV they choose, because it is a new commercial crew transportation system, both the LV and the spacecraft will have to be (re-)certified. The most likely scenario is that the new LV and spacecraft would be certified as part the Commercial LEO Destinations program. The Commercial LEO Destinations program (in collaboration with the Commercial Crew Program) has yet to come out with certifications requirements.
They will not run our of Atlas Vs next year. Depending on how you want to say it, "they" (ULA) have already run out of them because they are all already allocated, or they won't run out until 2028 when Starliner-6 flies. They explicitly told us what we had inferred from earlier statements: Once a year missions, CFT and all six CCP missions on Atlas V, Starliner-1 in Fall 2023. This means the last Starliner Atlas V mission is in Fall 2028. They will need to certify (or whatever word you want to use) on another launcher for any non-CCP missions and get NASA certification for any non-CCP that has a NASA crew member. They don't need to do this before 2028 unless they get non-CCP business, and they don't need to do it at all unless they are trying to sell non-CCP missions.
15:14
Joey Roulette - [...] Also, any plans to certify Vulcan for Starliner?
Mark Nappi:"I'll start with the second half first. We are certainly looking at the launch vehicle integration for when we run out of Atlases after PCM-6. So yes, that is actively in work. Our teams are working with the launch vehicle providers for that, and we'll be having to make a decision probably sometime early next year on what we're going to go do as moving forward."
31:09
Stephen Clark: Is Boeing still a launch vehicle agnostic spacecraft, and is Boeing really looking at other providers than ULA?
Mark Nappi: Yes, Boeing is looking at different options; it's just part of the business. Yes, Starliner is launch vehicle agnostic, but not easily so given the need for different adapters and launch operations with different providers.
Interesting that Boeing is looking to choose another LV after they run out of Atlas V early next year. There is no rush for this decision. Regardless of which LV they choose, because it is a new commercial crew transportation system, both the LV and the spacecraft will have to be (re-)certified. The most likely scenario is that the new LV and spacecraft would be certified as part the Commercial LEO Destinations program. The Commercial LEO Destinations program (in collaboration with the Commercial Crew Program) has yet to come out with certifications requirements.
They will not run our of Atlas Vs next year.
Yes, I wrote that too quickly, I meant that they will make a decision early next year on what LV will be next after Atlas V. I edited my post to clarify.
15:14
Joey Roulette - [...] Also, any plans to certify Vulcan for Starliner?
Mark Nappi:"I'll start with the second half first. We are certainly looking at the launch vehicle integration for when we run out of Atlases after PCM-6. So yes, that is actively in work. Our teams are working with the launch vehicle providers for that, and we'll be having to make a decision probably sometime early next year on what we're going to go do as moving forward."
31:09
Stephen Clark: Is Boeing still a launch vehicle agnostic spacecraft, and is Boeing really looking at other providers than ULA?
Mark Nappi: Yes, Boeing is looking at different options; it's just part of the business. Yes, Starliner is launch vehicle agnostic, but not easily so given the need for different adapters and launch operations with different providers.
Interesting that Boeing is looking to choose another LV after they run out of Atlas V early next year. There is no rush for this decision. Regardless of which LV they choose, because it is a new commercial crew transportation system, both the LV and the spacecraft will have to be (re-)certified. The most likely scenario is that the new LV and spacecraft would be certified as part the Commercial LEO Destinations program. The Commercial LEO Destinations program (in collaboration with the Commercial Crew Program) has yet to come out with certifications requirements.
They will need to certify (or whatever word you want to use) on another launcher for any non-CCP missions and get NASA certification for any non-CCP that has a NASA crew member. They don't need to do this before 2028 unless they get non-CCP business, and they don't need to do it at all unless they are trying to sell non-CCP missions.
The Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) program starts in 2028. If they want to to fly NASA astronauts to CLDs, they will have to get their new system certified. A certification process will exist within that program but hasn't yet been announced (however, there is a RFI that discusses it). As far as I know NASA does not intend to fly its astronauts on any other commercial crew missions other than CLD and ISS.
15:14
Joey Roulette - [...] Also, any plans to certify Vulcan for Starliner?
Mark Nappi:"I'll start with the second half first. We are certainly looking at the launch vehicle integration for when we run out of Atlases after PCM-6. So yes, that is actively in work. Our teams are working with the launch vehicle providers for that, and we'll be having to make a decision probably sometime early next year on what we're going to go do as moving forward."
31:09
Stephen Clark: Is Boeing still a launch vehicle agnostic spacecraft, and is Boeing really looking at other providers than ULA?
Mark Nappi: Yes, Boeing is looking at different options; it's just part of the business. Yes, Starliner is launch vehicle agnostic, but not easily so given the need for different adapters and launch operations with different providers.
Interesting that Boeing is looking to choose another LV after they run out of Atlas V early next year. There is no rush for this decision. Regardless of which LV they choose, because it is a new commercial crew transportation system, both the LV and the spacecraft will have to be (re-)certified. The most likely scenario is that the new LV and spacecraft would be certified as part the Commercial LEO Destinations program. The Commercial LEO Destinations program (in collaboration with the Commercial Crew Program) has yet to come out with certifications requirements.
They will not run our of Atlas Vs next year.
Yes, I wrote that too quickly, I meant that they will make a decision early next year on what LV will be next after Atlas V. I edited my post to clarify.
I listened to the NASA/Boeing conference call today about Starliner CFT but I didn't
hear any announcement that Boeing PCM-1 was scheduled for Fall 2023.
I did hear the Boeing representative mention fall 2023 for Boeing PCM-1, but I took
that as similar Boeing statements about the timing of other Starliner flights and
not a formal NASA scheduling.
My understanding is that after CFT returns successfully there is probably 2-3 months
to process the resulting data and to complete the certification of starliner.
But I also understand that NASA requires 6 months lead time for a scheduled crew
mission to the ISS so that all the necessary training for the crew can be completed.
So my understanding is that when CFT moved from December 2022 into 2023 it
became too late for Starliner PCM-1 to be scheduled for Fall 2023.
Do I have this wrong?
Or was there a separate announcement today that I missed?
Carl
Here is the quote:
13:06
One other added area is PCM-1 [Post Certification Mission 1]. We have gone through all the same process of baselining our schedules and understanding everything that needs to be completed and we're targeting a Fall opportunity. Both the Crew Module and the Service Module are also in work on the floor, so we have four vehicles in flow in the C3PF [Commercial Crew and Cargo Processing Facility], and when we get closer to vehicle readiness we'll be working a launch date with Steve and company as well.
You are right that Boeing said that, not NASA. But I don't think that Boeing would be targeting the fall for PCM-1 if NASA had already ruled it out.
Here is the quote:
13:06
One other added area is PCM-1 [Post Certification Mission 1]. We have gone through all the same process of baselining our schedules and understanding everything that needs to be completed and we're targeting a Fall opportunity. Both the Crew Module and the Service Module are also in work on the floor, so we have four vehicles in flow in the C3PF [Commercial Crew and Cargo Processing Facility], and when we get closer to vehicle readiness we'll be working a launch date with Steve and company as well.
You are right that Boeing said that, not NASA. But I don't think that Boeing would be targeting the fall for PCM-1 if NASA had already ruled it out.
I remember similar statements by SpaceX post DM2 when they expected certification more rapidly after the completion of DM2 and they planned Crew 1 for readiness some months before it actually
flew.
Boeing has stated a number of times that their prior crewed vehicle experience
and hence their familiarity with NASA paperwork would yield a very short turnaround
from CFT completion to receiving certification. I've always viewed that as being too optimistic.
So I'll wait until NASA announces a schedule for Boeing PCM-1 which I suspect will not
occur until after Starliner certification post CFT completion.
Carl
I'm certain that the PAMs and the 5th seat are two different opportunities. The 5th seat would be part of a standard ISS flight, but with a 5th person, presumably someone who is normally in the running for an ISS mission. This was one of the big marketing points during Starliner's original bid. The PAMs would be separate missions like Axiom-1.
I have doubts that a 5th seat will be used on a NASA mission. NASA never requested a 5th seat for commercial crew and I don't think that NASA would allow an 8th person on the ISS for a period of 6 months.
Boeing has stated a number of times that their prior crewed vehicle experience and hence their familiarity with NASA paperwork would yield a very short turnaround from CFT completion to receiving certification. I've always viewed that as being too optimistic.
Carl, I love your fluency in understatement!
After the OFT-1 and SM sticky valves debacle, one thing NASA is NOT going to do is hand-wave the certification process. I'm glad that OFT-2 was successful enough to clear CFT for flight, but Boeing expecting (via statements like that) of a easy casual ride after CFT is either more hubris or just PR fluff.
I'm certain that the PAMs and the 5th seat are two different opportunities. The 5th seat would be part of a standard ISS flight, but with a 5th person, presumably someone who is normally in the running for an ISS mission. This was one of the big marketing points during Starliner's original bid. The PAMs would be separate missions like Axiom-1.
I have doubts that a 5th seat will be used on a NASA mission. NASA never requested a 5th seat for commercial crew and I don't think that NASA would allow an 8th person on the ISS for a period of 6 months.
Would be a way for Axiom to have longer term mission once their module(s) arrive. Upcoming rules would likely limit that 5th seat passenger to former NASA astronauts though.
I'm certain that the PAMs and the 5th seat are two different opportunities. The 5th seat would be part of a standard ISS flight, but with a 5th person, presumably someone who is normally in the running for an ISS mission. This was one of the big marketing points during Starliner's original bid. The PAMs would be separate missions like Axiom-1.
I have doubts that a 5th seat will be used on a NASA mission. NASA never requested a 5th seat for commercial crew and I don't think that NASA would allow an 8th person on the ISS for a period of 6 months.
Would be a way for Axiom to have longer term mission once their module(s) arrive. Upcoming rules would likely limit that 5th seat passenger to former NASA astronauts though.
It may allow for a full complement of axiom customers on dedicated short duration missions though.
1. Long term former Astro UP on NASA starliner seat 5
2. Short duration Axiom PAM with 4/5* customers.
3. Perhaps multiple back-to-back PAMs to take advantage of the resident Axiom member.
4. Long term Astro returns on NASA starliner.
*Dragon/SecondStarliner (trying to not exclude starliner from possible Axiom PAM missions)
I'm certain that the PAMs and the 5th seat are two different opportunities. The 5th seat would be part of a standard ISS flight, but with a 5th person, presumably someone who is normally in the running for an ISS mission. This was one of the big marketing points during Starliner's original bid. The PAMs would be separate missions like Axiom-1.
I have doubts that a 5th seat will be used on a NASA mission. NASA never requested a 5th seat for commercial crew and I don't think that NASA would allow an 8th person on the ISS for a period of 6 months.
Would be a way for Axiom to have longer term mission once their module(s) arrive. Upcoming rules would likely limit that 5th seat passenger to former NASA astronauts though.
It may allow for a full complement of axiom customers on dedicated short duration missions though.
1. Long term former Astro UP on NASA starliner seat 5
2. Short duration Axiom PAM with 4/5* customers.
3. Perhaps multiple back-to-back PAMs to take advantage of the resident Axiom member.
4. Long term Astro returns on NASA starliner.
*Dragon/SecondStarliner (trying to not exclude starliner from possible Axiom PAM missions)
Crew Dragon can only seat 4 in its current configuration.