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#1080 by yg1968 on 03 Dec, 2023 14:06
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If SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS).
I agree that Starship will need to be certified for crewed flight but that will not include adding a LAS. Starships own engines already are the LAS. That is far, far safer than Shuttle, which flew 135 times with no LAS of any kind. As was tragically demonstrated by Challenger, it was not possible for Shuttle to abort the failing launch vehicle because the spacecraft itself was the launch vehicle. Not so for Starship, which can abort a failing Super Heavy launch vehicle using its own engines.
With regard to Starliner's future on the other hand, I personally don't think it will continue beyond the current program. Modifying and then certifying an existing launch vehicle to carry crew is extremely expensive and time consuming. ULA is not interested in incurring that kind of effort and expense for Vulcan and Boeing is not going to want to pay for that either. I believe Starliner is done after its six contracted flights. Boeing will cut its losses and walk away from the Starliner. Remember, Boeing is not a privately owned company. It is a corporation owned by shareholders. Failure to make a handsome profit will get an entire board of directors fired. Starliner is not going to be profitable enough to meet that bar. Members of the board of directors are not guided by aspirations. They are guided by profit and loss statements. The only way I can see that happening is if NASA picks up the entire tab to make the necessary modifications and certifications for Vulcan. I might be wrong, but I just don't see that happening. It would violate everything that Commercial Crew supposedly stands for.
The requirements for launch abort haven't changed much for the Commercial LEO Destinations program. Starship wouldn't currently meet them. See this link:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2528202#msg2528202
I would expect NASA to indirectly pay for certification of the spacecrafts through the Commercial LEO Destinations provider. After all, it's NASA own requirements. Furthermore, in the long run, both Starliner and Dragon are going away. So NASA has no choice but to certify new commercial crew transportation systems. -
#1081 by DanClemmensen on 03 Dec, 2023 14:23
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I think that clongton agrees that NASA will have no choice. If they want to fly on crewed EDL starship, they will need to certify it, and it will not have a separate LAS. Therefore, NASA will need to change their requirements. Otherwise, large numbers of non-NASA crew will fly to the CLD in comfort and luxury for $3 million/seat, while small numbers of NASA crew (8 per year) will fly to the same CLD at $90 million/seat.
I agree that Starship will need to be certified for crewed flight but that will not include adding a LAS.
The requirements for launch abort haven't changed much for the Commercial LEO Destinations program. Starship wouldn't currently meet them.
I would expect NASA to indirectly pay for certification of the spacecrafts through the Commercial LEO Destinations provider. After all, it's NASA own requirements. Furthermore, in the long run, both Starliner and Dragon are going away. So NASA has no choice but to certify new commercial crew transportation systems. -
#1082 by yg1968 on 03 Dec, 2023 14:25
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That works for the Orbital Reef and Axiom proposals. It does not work for the Starship CLD proposal in the ref of the post you provided and that I repeat here:
https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/cldp-heo-nac-11-20-23.pdf
where on slide 13 it refers to the SAA with SpaceX as follows:QuoteSpaceX – Starship as a CLD (first with Dragon
If this ends up being the CLD, then SpaceX will not pay to have Starliner certified as a alternate CCP provider. So for missions beyond Starliner-6, Boeing needs for Orbital Reef to succeed, probably before SpaceX gets around to flying Starship CLD if that ever happens. From my spot out here in the peanut gallery, Starship CLD looks more likely to fly than Orbital Reef.
for crew and cargo, later as crewed sortiable
CLD). Related Dragon and Starlink upgrades.
NASA says that they would prefer to have redundant commercial crew systems (see the link below). There is 2 ways of doing that. One way is for NASA to choose two different CLD providers that have different crew transportation systems. Another way is to have two options for commercial crew for each CLD provider. If you want to maximize your chances of winning a CLD bid, you should offer two commercial crew options in you bid. If one of the options is a new commercial crew transportation systems, I would expect that the price of certification of that system to be included in that option.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2366179#msg2366179 -
#1083 by DanClemmensen on 03 Dec, 2023 14:55
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Thanks for the reference. That post (of yours, and thanks again) quotes a NASA white paper that says in part
NASA says that they would prefer to have redundant commercial crew systems (see the link below). There is 2 ways of doing that. One way is for NASA to choose two different CLD providers that have different crew transportation systems. Another way is to have two options for commercial crew for each CLD provider. If you want to maximize your chances of winning a CLD bid, you should offer two commercial crew options in you bid. If one of the options is a new commercial crew transportation systems, I would expect that the price of certification of that system to be included in that option.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2366179#msg2366179Quote from: page 3 of the White PaperThe CLD service will include transit to and from CLD for USG astronauts. Transportation services for USG astronauts will be required to be certified under the Commercial Crew Program utilizing the same certification processes utilized for NASA commercial crew transportation.
Quote from: page 6 of the White Paper5.4 Redundancy of Transportation Service
Specifying or preferring that multiple crew transportation services be available for each CLD is understood to be a significant driver on the CLD architecture and operations (i.e., number, specification, and locations of CLD ports). NASA desires to continue to encourage multiple U.S. commercial transportation providers to strengthen the competitive market in the commercial LEO economy. If NASA only procures service from one CLD provider who only has one certified transportation provider, or if NASA procures service from multiple CLD providers who select the same transportation provider, competition in the transportation market would falter.
It reads as if it is explicitly trying to extend the life of Starliner. But by requiring NASA crew certification that includes a LAS requirement, they are likely to seriously inhibit competition in the transportation market. They are forcing the 2030 CLD market into a 2010 mold. It's like requiring sufficient hitching posts for two horses in front of the saloon ten years after the car was invented. -
#1084 by llanitedave on 04 Dec, 2023 03:02
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I have my doubts that Falcon 9 will be retired as long as there is a market demand for it.
F9 is a good technical fit, but would not provide launcher redundancy, and F9 would theoretically be retiring at about the time Starliner would need it.
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#1085 by DanClemmensen on 04 Dec, 2023 03:16
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Wrong thread, unless Starliner were flying on F9, which it won't. For all payloads except Dragon 2 (and Starliner if that ever happened) SpaceX will charge less for Starship than for F9. This increases the cost of the remaining F9 even further because flight rate is so low and these remaining flights must pay for the fixed F9 infrastructure and operations. Remember: for this thread we are talking post-2030.
I have my doubts that Falcon 9 will be retired as long as there is a market demand for it.
F9 is a good technical fit, but would not provide launcher redundancy, and F9 would theoretically be retiring at about the time Starliner would need it. -
#1086 by clongton on 04 Dec, 2023 13:20
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I thought ULA had stated that the Vulcan Centaur design was intended to be crew-rated from the start ...
That is correct. However Tory also said that it would not be implemented at this time. And, if I remember correctly, that the cost of implementation would have to be born by the company requesting the certification. I'm not clear on that last point so would appreciate anyone with that knowledge sharing it here. Thanks in advance. -
#1087 by vp. on 30 Dec, 2023 09:09
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Will Starliner be able to send 5 astronauts into orbit?
This could be interesting for private companies and for a short flight during the ISS crew rotation, if two Starliners follow each other.
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#1088 by DanClemmensen on 30 Dec, 2023 10:21
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Will Starliner be able to send 5 astronauts into orbit?
Starliner flies on Atlas V. Only seven of the remaining Atlas V are allocated for Starliner, one of the upcoming Crewed Flight Test and six for the contracted CCP missions, so none are available for a private 5-person flight. There are eight additional Atlas V for Kuiper. Maybe Boeing could negotiate with Kuiper for one or more of these, but Kuiper is currently desperate for LVs. Otherwise, Starliner would need to be certified on another LV, e.g., Falcon 9 or Vulcan, and the mating HW would need to be designed and fabricated.
This could be interesting for private companies and for a short flight during the ISS crew rotation, if two Starliners follow each other.
Back-to-back Starliner CCP missions are possible in theory. There would be a maximum of three pairs of missions, unless they fly more than two in a row. Boeing only has two Starliner capsules and time for refurbishment is a nominal six months, so more than two in a row is probably not feasible. This turnaround situation may also make private missions difficult to schedule until after the last CCP mission in 2030.
The implicit model has always been to alternate Starliner with Crew Dragon. Back-to-back Starliners will stretch the time between consecutive Crew Dragon missions, which is a burden on SpaceX. I do not know how this affects the Crew Dragon CCP contract. -
#1089 by spacenut on 30 Dec, 2023 13:14
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How long will the ISS be in space? When will Starliner be ready to fly? Getting kind of late. ULA to be sold. SpaceX and upcoming new space companies may have crew launching and capsules ready before Starliner can fly.
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#1090 by DanClemmensen on 30 Dec, 2023 16:41
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How long will the ISS be in space? When will Starliner be ready to fly? Getting kind of late. ULA to be sold. SpaceX and upcoming new space companies may have crew launching and capsules ready before Starliner can fly.
The following is all public info, all documented at Wikipedia and its refs. I have no other information.
Starliner CFT: April 2024, as announced by NASA.
Starliner-1: Q1 2025, as announced by NASA, contingent on successful CFT.
Starliners 2 through 6: Q1 of each year: 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030. Inferred: assumes alternation with Crew Dragon and average mission time of 6 months.
ISS decomissioning: 2030.
Note that CCP mission intervals have averaged about 5.5 months, not 6. NASA will need one or two additional Crew Dragon missions beyond Crew-14.
No new crew capsule types (e.g., crewed Dream Chaser) "before Starliner flies" in April. IMO, no new capsule types certified prior to 2030, but I'm a pessimist. IMO Maybe crewed Starship, but not certified for ISS docking.
Starliner is Boeing, not ULA. ULA involvement is limited to Starliner launches on Atlas V. Boeing is one of ULA's corporate parents, owning about 50%. I cannot see how they will allow the sale of ULA without getting a contractual commitment from the buyer to complete the seven Starliner launches.
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#1091 by AmigaClone on 30 Dec, 2023 17:24
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How long will the ISS be in space? When will Starliner be ready to fly? Getting kind of late. ULA to be sold. SpaceX and upcoming new space companies may have crew launching and capsules ready before Starliner can fly.
The following is all public info, all documented at Wikipedia and its refs. I have no other information.
Starliner CFT: April 2024, as announced by NASA.
Starliner-1: Q1 2025, as announced by NASA, contingent on successful CFT.
Starliners 2 through 6: Q1 of each year: 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030. Inferred: assumes alternation with Crew Dragon and average mission time of 6 months.
ISS decomissioning: 2030.
Note that CCP mission intervals have averaged about 5.5 months, not 6. NASA will need one or two additional Crew Dragon missions beyond Crew-14.
No new crew capsule types (e.g., crewed Dream Chaser) "before Starliner flies" in April. IMO, no new capsule types certified prior to 2030, but I'm a pessimist. IMO Maybe crewed Starship, but not certified for ISS docking.
Starliner is Boeing, not ULA. ULA involvement is limited to Starliner launches on Atlas V. Boeing is one of ULA's corporate parents, owning about 50%. I cannot see how they will allow the sale of ULA without getting a contractual commitment from the buyer to complete the seven Starliner launches.
IMO there will be three crewed spacecraft making their first crewed flight before 2030. Orion, Gaganyaan, and Starship - with the later likely landing with a crew on board before it launches with crew. None of those three are likely to be certified to dock to the ISS. -
#1092 by DanClemmensen on 30 Dec, 2023 17:47
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IMO there will be three crewed spacecraft making their first crewed flight before 2030. Orion, Gaganyaan, and Starship - with the later likely landing with a crew on board before it launches with crew. None of those three are likely to be certified to dock to the ISS.
Well, four it you count Starliner itself, which has not yet flown with crew.
But this is the Starliner thread. I was attempting to analyze things that may impact Starliner's ability to fly CCP missions and possible private missions. Orion will never be a Starliner competitor. I do not think anyone except Crew Dragon will fly any "extra" CCP missions past Crew-14 and Starliner-6. But yes, GaganYaan and crewed Starship are potential competitors to Starliner and Crew Dragon for private missions. Is there a reason you did not mention crewed Dream Chaser? -
#1093 by AmigaClone on 30 Dec, 2023 20:44
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Basically, I don't believe crewed Dream Chaser will actually fly with a crew prior to 2030. iMO Sierra Space will find they need more changes between the current version and one that will be certified to fly humans than they currently expect.IMO there will be three crewed spacecraft making their first crewed flight before 2030. Orion, Gaganyaan, and Starship - with the later likely landing with a crew on board before it launches with crew. None of those three are likely to be certified to dock to the ISS.
Well, four it you count Starliner itself, which has not yet flown with crew.
But this is the Starliner thread. I was attempting to analyze things that may impact Starliner's ability to fly CCP missions and possible private missions. Orion will never be a Starliner competitor. I do not think anyone except Crew Dragon will fly any "extra" CCP missions past Crew-14 and Starliner-6. But yes, GaganYaan and crewed Starship are potential competitors to Starliner and Crew Dragon for private missions. Is there a reason you did not mention crewed Dream Chaser?
The crew version might fly with cargo to the ISS instead of the cargo version of Dream Chaser though. -
#1094 by Craigles on 31 Dec, 2023 05:43
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My apologies if this was already planned and well clarified a decade ago. However, with the implicit model to alternate Starliner with Crew dragon, should extra IVA suits be flown? These IVA suits are not interchangeable parts. They aren't interchangeable between vehicles and they are not one-size-fits-all. If one astronaut eventually needs a rescue then what suit and flight operation will they have?
The implicit model has always been to alternate Starliner with Crew Dragon. Back-to-back Starliners will stretch the time between consecutive Crew Dragon missions, which is a burden on SpaceX. I do not know how this affects the Crew Dragon CCP contract.
This is a very old problem going back to at least the Shuttle-Mir days of course. However this practice of alternating vehicles will extend over long astronaut missions. -
#1095 by daedalus1 on 31 Dec, 2023 06:46
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The crew will always have their own capsule at the station for emergency on the station. This is already the case with Soyuz and Dragon.
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#1096 by DanClemmensen on 31 Dec, 2023 20:16
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The crew will always have their own capsule at the station for emergency on the station. This is already the case with Soyuz and Dragon.
But we have one example for a capsule at the station becoming unusable for crewed re-entry. The Russians solved this by flying another capsule. What would have happened with a double failure? We spent many happy days spamming our forums with schemes for bringing the Soyuz drew back as "cargo" in the Crew Dragon, which would have landed with a total of seven folks. -
#1097 by Vettedrmr on 31 Dec, 2023 20:21
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The crew will always have their own capsule at the station for emergency on the station. This is already the case with Soyuz and Dragon.
But we have one example for a capsule at the station becoming unusable for crewed re-entry. The Russians solved this by flying another capsule. What would have happened with a double failure? We spent many happy days spamming our forums with schemes for bringing the Soyuz drew back as "cargo" in the Crew Dragon, which would have landed with a total of seven folks.
But the scenario was if an *astronaut* needed to make an emergency return. In that case, I assume the entire crew would abort their mission and return home, using the IVA suits they flew up in. -
#1098 by vp. on 01 Jan, 2024 06:10
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But the scenario was if an *astronaut* needed to make an emergency return. In that case, I assume the entire crew would abort their mission and return home, using the IVA suits they flew up in.
No.
The question is: can the Starliner send 5 astronauts?
For example, Axiom could very well use the Starliner to send 5 astronauts, instead of 4, on an Ax mission. -
#1099 by daedalus1 on 01 Jan, 2024 06:33
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The crew will always have their own capsule at the station for emergency on the station. This is already the case with Soyuz and Dragon.
But we have one example for a capsule at the station becoming unusable for crewed re-entry. The Russians solved this by flying another capsule. What would have happened with a double failure? We spent many happy days spamming our forums with schemes for bringing the Soyuz drew back as "cargo" in the Crew Dragon, which would have landed with a total of seven folks.
It's a non thing.
If the staion needed to be evacuated, then use your rides back.
If the ride back has a problem - as happened once - then wait it out for a replacement.
In 50 years of space station operations there has never been another scenario.
