Has SpaceX Made Space Flight Look Easy ?

[AJW]

To put looking easy into perspective, yesterday NASA/Michaud finished an aft lox barrel for SLS.   They stopped, took photos of the assembly crew in front of the barrel, and wrote up a press release.   Can you imagine SpaceX stopping production and doing a press release every few days every time three or four SS/SH rings are assembled?

[alugobi]

The reason no US competitor is doing this appears to be institutional, not technical.

I think that that's exactly what he's getting at.

[greybeardengineer]

To put looking easy into perspective, yesterday NASA/Michaud finished an aft lox barrel for SLS.   They stopped, took photos of the assembly crew in front of the barrel, and wrote up a press release.   Can you imagine SpaceX stopping production and doing a press release every few days every time three or four SS/SH rings are assembled?

Those who build a vehicle per year have a very different idea of milestones than those who build a vehicle a week. For some it is a momentous achievement, for others it is Tuesday.

[tyrred]

Spaceflight was not and still not easy. SpaceX is an outlier from the rest of the space industry. Able to get things done quicker, cheaper and more efficiently. As long as Musk is the driving force of the company and not handicapped as a public company. SpaceX also have the advantage of being able to abandon projects even after substantial investment if it doesn't advance the company's unstated goal of a viable Mars colony for Musk to retired to.

Unstated goal of a viable Mars colony... C'mon.

It has been stated over and over.

Musk is never retiring. He will work himself in to the grave.

[woods170]

Spaceflight was not and still not easy. SpaceX is an outlier from the rest of the space industry. Able to get things done quicker, cheaper and more efficiently. As long as Musk is the driving force of the company and not handicapped as a public company. SpaceX also have the advantage of being able to abandon projects even after substantial investment if it doesn't advance the company's unstated goal of a viable Mars colony for Musk to retired to.

This is bothers me. You appear to be reflecting an attitude in the US space industry that only the SpaceX weirdos can do this because they are the only ones who can break away from the Old Space model that was apparently handed down from Werner Von Braun or something. Sort of "we cannot do that because it is not THE WAY! Only Elon the heretic can do that!"

My problem: what happens when China decides to build a Starship competitor? Starship is basically a big stainless steel tube with rocket engines at one end. Sure, there is a lot of other stuff, but that other stuff is not radically more advanced than the latest Long March systems. The reason no US competitor is doing this appears to be institutional, not technical.

Emphasis mine.

Correct. That is the sole reason why no legacy US competitors are attempting to do the same. You know: Old Space.
More recent competitors, such as RocketLab, are a different kind. Like SpaceX they are not hindered by institutional reasons or "we cannot do it because it is not THE WAY".

[kevin-rf]

I would argue argue no legacy competitors have attempted what SpaceX is doing because most companies do not like uncertainty and risk. What SpaceX has done in many ways was a huge gamble, with huge risks, that they managed to get to work. When you have a large company, with a large number of employees, it is very hard to take such a risk that might put them all on the unemployment line. Musk is willing to gamble. Well that's not fair, he's willing to do things without closing the business case. Risk aversion is what kills innovation, and why small startups are nimble and can usually out perform a large entrenched rival. A large number of startups also fail.

That said, I still get a huge pit in my stomach every time a Falcon 9 goes up. Things can still go wrong. Relief occurs when the payload(s) are deployed to the planned orbits.

[JayWee]

I would argue argue no legacy competitors have attempted what SpaceX is doing because most companies do not like uncertainty and risk.

Not trying to defend Old Space too much, but there was a period in the 90ties where people dreamed up megaconstellations (Telesdic) which did not pan out. So they didn't want to try and fail again. It took another 20 years of technology development to get there. SpaceX got very lucky that several completely independent areas (ISS, computers, internet, ... ) lined up perfectly.

[Zed_Noir]

Spaceflight was not and still not easy. SpaceX is an outlier from the rest of the space industry. Able to get things done quicker, cheaper and more efficiently. As long as Musk is the driving force of the company and not handicapped as a public company. SpaceX also have the advantage of being able to abandon projects even after substantial investment if it doesn't advance the company's unstated goal of a viable Mars colony for Musk to retired to.

Unstated goal of a viable Mars colony... C'mon.

It has been stated over and over.

Musk is never retiring. He will work himself in to the grave.

A viable Mars colony have been stated. A Musk Martian retirement home not so much.

There is no reason why Musk couldn't work from Mars before his possibly very brief retirement.

[Robotbeat]

I would argue argue no legacy competitors have attempted what SpaceX is doing because most companies do not like uncertainty and risk.

Not trying to defend Old Space too much, but there was a period in the 90ties where people dreamed up megaconstellations (Telesdic) which did not pan out. So they didn't want to try and fail again. It took another 20 years of technology development to get there. SpaceX got very lucky that several completely independent areas (ISS, computers, internet, ... ) lined up perfectly.

SpaceX made their own luck by choosing to create demand to justify their RLV.

[JAFO]

I'm reading a book right now called "A Short History of Seafaring" by Brian Lavery, highly recommend it. At almost 400 pages it's not exactly short, but is very well written. It's been a great reminder of how hard seafaring was, and the cost it took on those early pioneers when many vessels never came back, or one boat from a flotilla and only a handful of starving men.

SpaceX has made spaceflight routine, but insiders know it's is not easy.

[Robotbeat]

I'm reading a book right now called "A Short History of Seafaring" by Brian Lavery, highly recommend it. At almost 400 pages it's not exactly short, but is very well written. It's been a great reminder of how hard seafaring was, and the cost it took on those early pioneers, when many vessels never came back, or one boat from a flotilla and only a handful of starving men.

SpaceX has made spaceflight routine, but insiders know it's is not easy.

Yeah, super easy to take for granted.

[Danderman]

Things will get interesting when and if there is a comparable competitor to Falcon.

[steveleach]

Things will get interesting when and if there is a comparable competitor to Falcon.

Is it looking likely that will happen before SpaceX themselves make Falcon obsolete?

[SpeakertoAnimals]

Things will get interesting when and if there is a comparable competitor to Falcon.

Is it looking likely that will happen before SpaceX themselves make Falcon obsolete?

Falcon will be launching Dragon for a while after SS/SH takes over Falcon's other functions.

[DanClemmensen]

Things will get interesting when and if there is a comparable competitor to Falcon.

Is it looking likely that will happen before SpaceX themselves make Falcon obsolete?

Falcon will be launching Dragon for a while after SS/SH takes over Falcon's other functions.

But those F9 launches are not competing with services from new launchers for almost all payloads, only crewed payloads and CRS payloads. Furthermore, Starship may (I'm guessing) become available for CRS and crewed missions in the same timeframe as other new launchers.

[SpeakertoAnimals]

Things will get interesting when and if there is a comparable competitor to Falcon.

Is it looking likely that will happen before SpaceX themselves make Falcon obsolete?

Falcon will be launching Dragon for a while after SS/SH takes over Falcon's other functions.

But those F9 launches are not competing with services from new launchers for almost all payloads, only crewed payloads and CRS payloads. Furthermore, Starship may (I'm guessing) become available for CRS and crewed missions in the same timeframe as other new launchers.

I see I wasn't clear. Starship will take over most Falcon satellite launches first. Its first crewed flights will involve traffic between LEO and the moon. Starship will probably also do some station duty. The last flights Falcon will do will probably be crewed launches and reentry for NASA and for docking to ISS, as NASA will be hesitant to dock something as large as Starship to ISS.

[Surfdaddy]

Things will get interesting when and if there is a comparable competitor to Falcon.

Given the glacial pace of BO and the early stage of other companies like Rocketlab, SpaceX is 10-20 years ahead of its competitors.

[DanClemmensen]

Things will get interesting when and if there is a comparable competitor to Falcon.

Is it looking likely that will happen before SpaceX themselves make Falcon obsolete?

Falcon will be launching Dragon for a while after SS/SH takes over Falcon's other functions.

But those F9 launches are not competing with services from new launchers for almost all payloads, only crewed payloads and CRS payloads. Furthermore, Starship may (I'm guessing) become available for CRS and crewed missions in the same timeframe as other new launchers.

I see I wasn't clear. Starship will take over most Falcon satellite launches first. Its first crewed flights will involve traffic between LEO and the moon. Starship will probably also do some station duty. The last flights Falcon will do will probably be crewed launches and reentry for NASA and for docking to ISS, as NASA will be hesitant to dock something as large as Starship to ISS.

SpaceX will want to retire F9 as soon as it is feasible so it can retire the expensive infrastructure. They will also want to provide crew transportation and cargo to LEO stations, eventually including ISS if it is still operating. If those stations are (understandably) unwilling to allow a behemoth to dock with them, then SpaceX will need to provide small taxi craft that stay in orbit near each station to transfer crew and cargo the last kilometer.

[docmordrid]

SpaceX will want to retire F9 as soon as it is feasible so it can retire the expensive infrastructure. They will also want to provide crew transportation and cargo to LEO stations, eventually including ISS if it is still operating. If those stations are (understandably) unwilling to allow a behemoth to dock with them, then SpaceX will need to provide small taxi craft that stay in orbit near each station to transfer crew and cargo the last kilometer.

Wouldn't it make more sense to have the shuttle craft permanently docked at the stations, then moving to the Starship as needed? Otherwise, maintaining them in orbit will require constantly monitoring their relationship to each other and extra propellants for station keeping.

[DanClemmensen]

SpaceX will want to retire F9 as soon as it is feasible so it can retire the expensive infrastructure. They will also want to provide crew transportation and cargo to LEO stations, eventually including ISS if it is still operating. If those stations are (understandably) unwilling to allow a behemoth to dock with them, then SpaceX will need to provide small taxi craft that stay in orbit near each station to transfer crew and cargo the last kilometer.

Wouldn't it make more sense to have the shuttle craft permanently docked at the stations, then moving to the Starship as needed? Otherwise, maintaining them in orbit will require much fuel for station keeping and constantly monitoring their relationship to each other.

Certainly. I was sloppy. I meant that the taxi would not be brought up to orbit with each Starship flight, but would instead remain at the station.