https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1515073613229133837?t=VEwkSykBFb-0jmj85JZYjw&s=19From this tweet, it got me thinking about the question in this thread title
We know that New Glenn is still a long way for flight (NET 2024 realistically) thus Starship is likely beat it to orbit (even accounting for the worst case scenario of EIS at Boca, forcing SpaceX to moved their OFT to the Cape), yet it's already included in LSP chart
Is there because of the iterative nature of Starship design vs traditional one for other LVs?
LSP does not have Starship on contract at this time.
Since I have not read the document from which this was extracted, I don't have the context. However, As of then (and as of now) Starship does not have a traditional fairing, so we cannot know how this should be interpreted.
Is there because of the iterative nature of Starship design vs traditional one for other LVs?
I think it could be part of the reason - I don't believe even SpaceX knows even rough final performance of Starship. Even the number of engines changed recently. There is only the payload guide, which says 100+.
Also, I remember the LSP figures for Falcon 9 being not up to date. So I'd tread NG ones as "preliminary" too.
Is there because of the iterative nature of Starship design vs traditional one for other LVs?
I think it could be part of the reason - I don't believe even SpaceX knows even rough final performance of Starship. Even the number of engines changed recently. There is only the payload guide, which says 100+.
I think far more important than performance is how to integrate and deploy payload, plus how to perform BLEO missions (refueling vs expendable), they also need to figure out an appropriate price, which will depends on how well they can reuse the hardware. My guess is these are not as high priority as getting the full stack flying and deploy Starlink, thus the delay in submission to LSP.
LSP does not have Starship on contract at this time.
Are you implying that New Glenn has a contract with LSP at this time? Or just that Starship does not?
I'm not familiar with how new launch systems get added to the LSP, and it is interesting that as of September 28, 2021 New Glenn is on the list - even though Blue Origin has never launched an orbital payload, and New Glenn is likely years away from its first launch.
Is it that Blue Origin applied to be on the list, and after the application process New Glenn was added? Meaning that SpaceX had not yet applied?
LSP does not have Starship on contract at this time.
Are you implying that New Glenn has a contract with LSP at this time?
Dec 16, 2020. NASA Awards Launch Services Contract to Blue Origin for New Glenn Launch Services
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-to-blue-origin-for-new-glenn-launch-servicesApr 15, 2021. NASA Adds Vulcan Centaur Launch Services to Launch Services Contract
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-adds-vulcan-centaur-launch-services-to-launch-services-contractI was surprised to see New Glenn added before Vulcan but then again I'm not sure what the bar is for being on-ramped into NASA's Launch Services Program.
Jim says that Starship doesn't have a contract with LSP
at this time (my emphasis) and he would know. To me that means at least one of:
1. SpaceX has submitted a proposal but it's still being evaluated.
2. SpaceX has not submitted anything yet. (Or has not resubmitted after a rejection.)
3. NASA has rejected SpaceX's submission.
Those who know definitively (not me) probably aren't allowed to say unless it's public information.
BTW, I don't think that SpaceX has to nail down their exact performance numbers to submit a proposal. Certainly, SpaceX sandbagged their early LSP performance numbers for F9H if not F9 too.
4. SpaceX already have two LVs contracted for LSP.
Recall that SpaceX was rebuffed after offering Starship to the AF for NSS launches early in the last phase of awards, a situation SpaceX then filed suit over. Perhaps they’ve learned there is wisdom in sticking to what’s real, now, for certain domains.
Meanwhile they did publish a preliminary Starship payload user guide which has been considered by long-lead projects such as LUVOIR.
edit:clarity