Falcon 9 Mission & Launch Success Records

[ZachS09]

After the Starlink Group 4-7 mission, there's been some talk on said thread about how many consecutive launch & mission success records for Falcon 9 have been achieved.

Let's use this thread for further discussion.

[Coastal Ron]

Here is an Ars Technica article that talks about this topic:

The Falcon 9 may now be the safest rocket ever launched | Ars Technica

Since the year 2020, the Falcon 9 has been the most experienced, active rocket in the United States, when it surpassed the Atlas V rocket in total launches.

...

Speaking of safety, this is where the Falcon 9 rocket has really shone of late. Since the Amos-6 failure during its static fire test, SpaceX has completed a record-setting run of 111 successful Falcon 9 missions in a row. It probably will be 112 after Thursday.

Pretty good value, and pretty safe bet for any payload customer.

[DreamyPickle]

This is a very big deal.

In the early 2010 cadence and reliability were the biggest weaknesses of the Falcon 9 and they have since turned into major strengths.

Many people in the industry were proven wrong by the reliability of the Falcon 9. When Ariane 6 and Vulcan will start flying they will have to compete without the advantage of a reliability record. Any failure in those programs would be absolutely disastrous and so this will further increases internal concerns about reliability and raise costs.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Nice twitter thread by Eric on current F9 cadence relative to the R-7 family:

twitter.com/spacex/status/1548057271745200130

Targeting Sunday, July 17 for a Falcon 9 launch of 53 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from SLC-40 in Florida → spacex.com/launches/sl4-2…

twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1548063885080440832

Barring delays, this will be SpaceX's 8th launch in 30 days 😳 this is actually not that far away from what I believe is the all-time 30-day cadence record, which is likely 10 R--7 family launches from Sept 2 to Oct 1 1975.

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1548064466712940555

If we want to be more literal, four different R-7 variants completed those 10 launches. So I honestly don't think it would be inaccurate to say that Falcon 9 will hold the record for number of launches completed in 30 days by a single rocket if Starlink 4-22 launches on time.

twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1548068884460097538

F9 has a few more hills to climb to truly trounce most of the R-7 family's records, though. 6 Soyuz-U launches in 15 days, for example. SpaceX has managed 5 F9 launches in 18 days.

But F9 is now halfway through its July manifest of 6 launches in 17 days, so it's not far off...

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1548068886662094848

At this point, the only R-7 variant record Falcon 9 is unlikely to break is total lifetime launches, as Soyuz-U has flown 786 times.

[vaporcobra]

Slight correction: Falcon 9 will only tie what I believe is the 30-day launch record. Soyuz-U once managed 8 launches in a bit less than 28 days. Still incredibly impressive, though

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1548082507622465539

[Comga]

This may be a good thread for this or OT.

Falcon 9 has completed 31 missions so far this year, delivering ~351 metric tons to orbit – carrying astronauts & research to the @space_station, deploying Starlink to provide global high-speed internet, as well as many other critical payloads for our commercial & gov customers

For our statistically gifted contributors:
In 1969 NASA’s Saturn V launched Apollo 9, 10, 11, & 12.
The total mass to orbit that year, the peak of the Apollo program, must have been comparable to the above 351 metric tons (387 of those scrawny “tons” NASA still likes to use) orbited by the Falcon 9 in little more than a half year.
Anyone have a more accurate total mass?

[DanClemmensen]

This may be a good thread for this or OT.

Falcon 9 has completed 31 missions so far this year, delivering ~351 metric tons to orbit – carrying astronauts & research to the @space_station, deploying Starlink to provide global high-speed internet, as well as many other critical payloads for our commercial & gov customers

For our statistically gifted contributors:
In 1969 NASA’s Saturn V launched Apollo 9, 10, 11, & 12.
The total mass to orbit that year, the peak of the Apollo program, must have been comparable to the above 351 metric tons (387 of those scrawny “tons” NASA still likes to use) orbited by the Falcon 9 in little more than a half year.
Anyone have a more accurate total mass?

Elon claimed in a tweet that F9 carried two thirds of the Earth's payload mass to orbit in 2021. I wonder what it will be this year?

[AmigaClone]

This may be a good thread for this or OT.

Falcon 9 has completed 31 missions so far this year, delivering ~351 metric tons to orbit – carrying astronauts & research to the @space_station, deploying Starlink to provide global high-speed internet, as well as many other critical payloads for our commercial & gov customers

For our statistically gifted contributors:
In 1969 NASA’s Saturn V launched Apollo 9, 10, 11, & 12.
The total mass to orbit that year, the peak of the Apollo program, must have been comparable to the above 351 metric tons (387 of those scrawny “tons” NASA still likes to use) orbited by the Falcon 9 in little more than a half year.
Anyone have a more accurate total mass?

Elon claimed in a tweet that F9 carried two thirds of the Earth's payload mass to orbit in 2021. I wonder what it will be this year?

I can see Elon claiming around 75% of Earth's payload mass to orbit if China successfully launches into orbit both modules of it's space station and Starship doesn't launch this year. If both modules fail to reach orbit this year, and Starship has 2-3 fully orbital missions that number could go up considerably (85-90%?).

[AmigaClone]

I can't see Falcon 9 surpassing some records of the R-7 family, especially the total number of launches of specific members of that family, such as total number of launches.

I also can't see SpaceX refurbishing a pad fast enough to launch twice within 50 hours - which the Soviet Union managed to do (in one case in 1969).

[edkyle99]

For our statistically gifted contributors:
In 1969 NASA’s Saturn V launched Apollo 9, 10, 11, & 12.
The total mass to orbit that year, the peak of the Apollo program, must have been comparable to the above 351 metric tons (387 of those scrawny “tons” NASA still likes to use) orbited by the Falcon 9 in little more than a half year.
Anyone have a more accurate total mass?

Apollo 9:  36.553 tonnes to 185 x 187 km x 32.3 deg LEO
Apollo 10:  42.827 tonnes to TLI
Apollo 11:  43.952 tonnes to TLI
Apollo 12:  44.053 tonnes to TLI
These payload masses are CSM+LM at injection.

Hard to compare directly, since Apollo 9 also sent its S-IVB stage into solar orbit.  (The S-IVB/IU/Apollo 9 stack weighed 134.9 tonnes at orbit insertion,)  Falcon 9 has only boosted two missions beyond LEO so far this year totaling something less than 7.5 tonnes I think.  Apollos 10-12 sent 170.832 tonnes of actual payload beyond LEO.  Apollo 12's S-IVB used 71.687 tonnes of propellant to go from LEO to TLI, suggesting a LEO-equivalent "payload" of 115.74 tonnes for that mission.

 - Ed Kyle

[Stan-1967]

For our statistically gifted contributors:
In 1969 NASA’s Saturn V launched Apollo 9, 10, 11, & 12.
The total mass to orbit that year, the peak of the Apollo program, must have been comparable to the above 351 metric tons (387 of those scrawny “tons” NASA still likes to use) orbited by the Falcon 9 in little more than a half year.
Anyone have a more accurate total mass?

If you count the mass of the SIV & propellant that made it to parking orbit, plus the payloads of Apollo 9,10,11,& 12, I add up a mass of around 531 tons. 

[Redclaws]

For our statistically gifted contributors:
In 1969 NASA’s Saturn V launched Apollo 9, 10, 11, & 12.
The total mass to orbit that year, the peak of the Apollo program, must have been comparable to the above 351 metric tons (387 of those scrawny “tons” NASA still likes to use) orbited by the Falcon 9 in little more than a half year.
Anyone have a more accurate total mass?

If you count the mass of the SIV & propellant that made it to parking orbit, plus the payloads of Apollo 9,10,11,& 12, I add up a mass of around 531 tons.

531 tons to where, though?  I guess I’m wondering about total delta v rather than just mass.  Man the Saturn V was a big rocket.

[whitelancer64]

For our statistically gifted contributors:
In 1969 NASA’s Saturn V launched Apollo 9, 10, 11, & 12.
The total mass to orbit that year, the peak of the Apollo program, must have been comparable to the above 351 metric tons (387 of those scrawny “tons” NASA still likes to use) orbited by the Falcon 9 in little more than a half year.
Anyone have a more accurate total mass?

If you count the mass of the SIV & propellant that made it to parking orbit, plus the payloads of Apollo 9,10,11,& 12, I add up a mass of around 531 tons.

531 tons to where, though?  I guess I’m wondering about total delta v rather than just mass.  Man the Saturn V was a big rocket.

To the LEO parking orbit before the TLI burn.

[meekGee]

The only thing abnormal here is that these records stood for so long, attesting to the terrible stagnation that overtook the aerospace industry.

All we do is compare everything to the Apollo program...  Where else is this normal?  What other industry still holds the accomplishments of the 60s in awe and whispers quietly that one day, maybe...

The kind of progress SpaceX is making should have could have would have happened 20 years earlier at the very least.

Generation lost.

Glad we're finding it now, but it's still singular. I hope it'll become the norm again at some point.

[edkyle99]

If you count the mass of the SIV & propellant that made it to parking orbit, plus the payloads of Apollo 9,10,11,& 12, I add up a mass of around 531 tons. 

Well yeah, but then you would need to include the burnout mass of the Falcon 9 second stage too for that comparison.

How about a theoretical capability comparison?  Falcon 9 has been launching, what, 15.9 tonnes to LEO on Starlink missions while recovering the first stage downrange?  That's almost 493 tonnes of payload possible for 31 launches, the current year-to-date total, though SpaceX says it has only lifted 351 tonnes.  If Saturn V could lift about 116 tonnes to LEO (see above), that would be almost 463 tonnes of possibility for 1969.  I would say roughly equivalent with Falcon 9 pulling ahead - and there are still 5.5 months to go this year.

Now, about that year NASA put nine 100 tonne Space Shuttle orbiters into orbit ....

 - Ed Kyle

[AmigaClone]

The only thing abnormal here is that these records stood for so long, attesting to the terrible stagnation that overtook the aerospace industry.

All we do is compare everything to the Apollo program...  Where else is this normal?  What other industry still holds the accomplishments of the 60s in awe and whispers quietly that one day, maybe...

The kind of progress SpaceX is making should have could have would have happened 20 years earlier at the very least.

Generation lost.

Glad we're finding it now, but it's still singular. I hope it'll become the norm again at some point.

There was a major slump in orbital launches worldwide between 2001 and 2005 caused by several factors. 2004 only saw 50 successful orbital launches globally. The four most used families (Delta, Long March, R-7 (which includes Soyuz) and Proton rockets launched a combined total of 32 times.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

A different first from Eric that I hadn’t considered:

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1549232977229467650

There's an increasingly good chance that in 2022, Falcon 9 will become the first rocket in history to launch the payload equivalent of its full liftoff mass into orbit in a single year! For F9, that's about 550 tons.

[AmigaClone]

A different first from Eric that I hadn’t considered:

https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1549232977229467650

There's an increasingly good chance that in 2022, Falcon 9 will become the first rocket in history to launch the payload equivalent of its full liftoff mass into orbit in a single year! For F9, that's about 550 tons.

Depending on the actual payload mass to orbit, Soyuz-U might have done that in 1979. Since many of the payloads it launched were military satellites, the true mass that rocket placed in orbit may never be known.

[Robotbeat]

I can't see Falcon 9 surpassing some records of the R-7 family, especially the total number of launches of specific members of that family, such as total number of launches.

I also can't see SpaceX refurbishing a pad fast enough to launch twice within 50 hours - which the Soviet Union managed to do (in one case in 1969).

Falcon 9 won’t be operating long enough at current rates to surpass the >1000 launches record for the R7 family. Starship will take over the vast majority and eventually they’ll retire Falcon 9.

But why don’t you think they could “refurbish” a pad fast enough to turn around in 50 hours? Seems challenging, but not particularly groundbreaking compared to what they’ve already achieved. After all, as you say, the Soviets did it.

Maybe they just will never bother, but I don’t see any particular challenge to it.

[Jim]

The only thing abnormal here is that these records stood for so long, attesting to the terrible stagnation that overtook the aerospace industry.

All we do is compare everything to the Apollo program...  Where else is this normal?  What other industry still holds the accomplishments of the 60s in awe and whispers quietly that one day, maybe...

The kind of progress SpaceX is making should have could have would have happened 20 years earlier at the very least.

Generation lost.

Glad we're finding it now, but it's still singular. I hope it'll become the norm again at some point.

Meh.

There was no need.   Also, spacecraft were lasting longer

[butters]

The only thing abnormal here is that these records stood for so long, attesting to the terrible stagnation that overtook the aerospace industry.

All we do is compare everything to the Apollo program...  Where else is this normal?  What other industry still holds the accomplishments of the 60s in awe and whispers quietly that one day, maybe...

The kind of progress SpaceX is making should have could have would have happened 20 years earlier at the very least.

Generation lost.

Glad we're finding it now, but it's still singular. I hope it'll become the norm again at some point.

Meh.

There was no need.   Also, spacecraft were lasting longer

I call this period the "geosynchronous lull." After film-based spysats and before large LEO constellations, the bread-and-butter segment of the launch industry was geosynchronous comsats, which had long lifetimes and large coverage areas and therefore generated insufficient demand to support a vibrant launch industry. As we know, global launch rates peaked in 1967, dropped off substantially during the geosynchronous lull, and finally blasted past that old record into uncharted territory in 2021 and 2022.

The original concept of operations for New Glenn is an instructive example of how even a "progressive" launch provider viewed the launch market in the early-mid 2010s: Blue Origin projected 8 dual-manifest GTO launches per year. Essentially Ariane 5, but with a reusable booster and presumably cheaper. Reusability was not seen as empowering cadence, because Blue didn't foresee the demand for higher cadence.

Blue obviously hired consultants that gave them a very sober and realistic market projection based on how the industry had worked throughout their entire careers during the lull. They didn't want to be like Boeing, building the Decatur plant with the capacity to assemble 50 Delta IV cores per year on the hopes that a market would materialize. Boeing also got burned by their investment in Sea Launch, which could be described as the launch provider most specifically tailored to addressing the market of the geosynchronous lull.

The lull is over, and everybody who based their business model on the lull has been caught out. ULA will build a second VIF at LC-41 to partially compensate for their poorly-timed decision to decommission half their pads. Ariane has no realistic near-term path toward high-rate launch operations. New Glenn is going through yet another round of design pivots. It wasn't that they didn't believe that 60+ launches a year would be possible, it's that they didn't think it would be needed. They were wrong.

[AmigaClone]

I can't see Falcon 9 surpassing some records of the R-7 family, especially the total number of launches of specific members of that family, such as total number of launches.

I also can't see SpaceX refurbishing a pad fast enough to launch twice within 50 hours - which the Soviet Union managed to do (in one case in 1969).

Falcon 9 won’t be operating long enough at current rates to surpass the >1000 launches record for the R7 family. Starship will take over the vast majority and eventually they’ll retire Falcon 9.

But why don’t you think they could “refurbish” a pad fast enough to turn around in 50 hours? Seems challenging, but not particularly groundbreaking compared to what they’ve already achieved. After all, as you say, the Soviets did it.

Maybe they just will never bother, but I don’t see any particular challenge to it.

Part of the reason I can't see Space launching twice from the same pad in 50 hours would be them simply not bothering to attempt that feat. I can also see government red tape being a major factor in preventing SpaceX from even considering making that type of attempt with a Falcon 9 (especially having two crewed missions from the Falcon 9 pad at LC39A).

[Surfdaddy]

We could also talk about a stat that the airlines use - "dispatch reliability". In other words, what percent of the time does the F9 launch on the first try? I would assume we don't factor weather scrubs into that answer. And of course F9's launch windows are instantaneous which is a further difficulty for them. I can hardly remember any F9 scrubbing due to a mechanical issue lately, even though most of their launches are on flight proven boosters. I would suggest (without having the data) that the F9, let's say since Block 5, is by far the most reliable launcher to launch on the first try, disregarding weather scrubs.

Anybody want to gather that data?

[Robotbeat]

I can't see Falcon 9 surpassing some records of the R-7 family, especially the total number of launches of specific members of that family, such as total number of launches.

I also can't see SpaceX refurbishing a pad fast enough to launch twice within 50 hours - which the Soviet Union managed to do (in one case in 1969).

Falcon 9 won’t be operating long enough at current rates to surpass the >1000 launches record for the R7 family. Starship will take over the vast majority and eventually they’ll retire Falcon 9.

But why don’t you think they could “refurbish” a pad fast enough to turn around in 50 hours? Seems challenging, but not particularly groundbreaking compared to what they’ve already achieved. After all, as you say, the Soviets did it.

Maybe they just will never bother, but I don’t see any particular challenge to it.

Part of the reason I can't see Space launching twice from the same pad in 50 hours would be them simply not bothering to attempt that feat. I can also see government red tape being a major factor in preventing SpaceX from even considering making that type of attempt with a Falcon 9 (especially having two crewed missions from the Falcon 9 pad at LC39A).

I can see them doing it for a couple of back to back Starlink launches from LC-40. They did 8 days between launches earlier this month. A bit over 2 days between launches is well within the realm of the possible.

[meekGee]

The only thing abnormal here is that these records stood for so long, attesting to the terrible stagnation that overtook the aerospace industry.

All we do is compare everything to the Apollo program...  Where else is this normal?  What other industry still holds the accomplishments of the 60s in awe and whispers quietly that one day, maybe...

The kind of progress SpaceX is making should have could have would have happened 20 years earlier at the very least.

Generation lost.

Glad we're finding it now, but it's still singular. I hope it'll become the norm again at some point.

Meh.

There was no need.   Also, spacecraft were lasting longer

...
There was a major slump in orbital launches worldwide between 2001 and 2005 caused by several factors. 2004 only saw 50 successful orbital launches globally. The four most used families (Delta, Long March, R-7 (which includes Soyuz) and Proton rockets launched a combined total of 32 times.

These two quotes embody what I'm talking about.  The launch providers didn't have any drive or interest in creating a space economy.  They blame the market (which is what weak passive CEOs do) but don't do anything about it.  THe CEOs job IS to create the market for the company, or transition the company towards where the market is.

Meanwhile the companies stagnate and lose the ability to do anything except the very narrow niche into which they maneuvered themselves.  Look at ULA's response to SpaceX.  First it was all about block buys and just securing the government manifest.  Then, forced to do something by the the RD180 ban (and my god this was the first time congress showed foresight) they came up with Vulcan - basically the absolute minimum effort they could think of. An upgraded EELV with engines from a vendor of last resort.

Blaming the longer life of comm-sats (or "the slump") for the misfortunes of the launch industry is just excuses - as was proven by SpaceX.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Should note here that with the 48th F9 launch this year (all successful), of Starlink 4-36 on 20 October, F9 has set a new annual record for most launches of the same vehicle type. Previous record was 47 launches (45 successful) in 1979 by Soyuz-U.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1583133885696987136

Congrats to @SpaceX team on 48th launch this year! Falcon 9 now holds record for most launches of a single vehicle type in a year.

[AmigaClone]

Should note here that with the 48th F9 launch this year (all successful), of Starlink 4-36 on 20 October, F9 has set a new annual record for most launches of the same vehicle type. Previous record was 47 launches (45 successful) in 1979 by Soyuz-U.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1583133885696987136

Congrats to @SpaceX team on 48th launch this year! Falcon 9 now holds record for most launches of a single vehicle type in a year.

Something to note is that two of those Soyuz-2 launch attempts in 1979 were failures.

The most launches by a rocket family was in 1980 when there where 63 launches of the R7 family (45 Soyuz-U, 12 Molniya-M, and 6 Vostok-2M) Two of the Molniya-M rockets were partial failures. Not included in the previous total of launches was a Vostok-2M which exploded on the launch pad while being serviced.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Another record (payload to orbit) for SpaceX already this year:

Delta V adjusted payload totals after today’s Starlink launch:


733,100 (61x) 🇺🇸 United States
633,173 (48x) 🇺🇸 (SpaceX)
144,326 (43x) 🇨🇳 China
74,848 (15x) 🇷🇺 Russia
40,511 (3x) 🇪🇺 Europe
2,928 (2x) 🇮🇳 India
2,199 (1x) 🇰🇷 South Korea
1,315 (8x) 🇳🇿 New Zealand
15 (1x) 🇮🇷 Iran

1,001,149 🇺🇳 (131x) Earth

Not only has the US beaten the record set in 1988 by the USSR for most adjusted payload to orbit, but SpaceX alone has cleared that record by itself with more than two months to go!