Can the ISS survive the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[GraniteHound92]

Russian foreign minister Lavrov just gave a bonkers press conference, where he threatened Ukraine, the US, Finland, Sweden, and all NATO nations. If Russia invades Ukraine, and threatens NATO and the rest of western Europe...how do the US and the other international partners justify continuing to do business with Russia on the ISS? Putin is running a criminal enterprise. We're operating a space station with a nuclear armed gangster. That isn't sustainable.

[EnigmaSCADA]

I don't think it survive with a state behaving the way Vlad's Russia is right now. I think it's best the hatch gets closed and we jettison away and get out of this ridiculous situation. Sad, but true, you asked.

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[Steven Pietrobon]

If Russia invades Ukraine I expect the West will react in a similar fashion to when the USSR invaded Afghanistan. Lots of boycotts, sanctions and arms to Ukrainian rebels. After 10 years, it may even have a similar outcome. I believe the ISS partnership will continue as it would hurt the US space program to end the partnership, but the exchange seats on Soyuz and Dragon 2/Starliner will go away.

[woods170]

If Russia invades Ukraine I expect the West will react in a similar fashion to when the USSR invaded Afghanistan. Lots of boycotts, sanctions and arms to Ukrainian rebels. After 10 years, it may even have a similar outcome. I believe the ISS partnership will continue as it would hurt the US space program to end the partnership, but the exchange seats on Soyuz and Dragon 2/Starliner will go away.

Yes, IMO the most likely outcome.

ISS will not really be affected unless Putin does something REALLY stupid, like taking military actions against one or more of the NATO members, or going after Finland or Sweden. Then the ISS partnership will absolutely break up IMO.

[vulture4]

The ISS partnership has survived considerable tension between the US and Russia, in fact providing one point of cooperation and trust was one of its goals. If the Russian ISS program remains apolitical a certain amount of tension on other fronts won't sink it.

[Hauerg]

I don't think it survive with a state behaving the way Vlad's Russia is right now. I think it's best the hatch gets closed and we jettison away and get out of this ridiculous situation. Sad, but true, you asked.

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I don't think what you know what you are talking about.
And let's NOT compare Russian and US foreign politics here.

[eric z]

 Space flyers, and supporting cast, will still have to be cross-trained in the operational equipment and methodology of the different ISS segments and systems. So just the possibility of seat-swapping going away doesn't mean that the ISS can be run without travel here on Earth. Not just US between Russia, but Japan , Canada and Europe come into play also.
 This is not a game.
  There is a moral, ethical and common sense element to all of this - if we don't trust the other side enough to swap seats with them, then why are we running this thing in the first place? We already seem to be dealing with TMZ-style gossip, dangerous gossip actually, about members of our crews. Could things deteriorate to the point of each side saying to their people "It's business as usual, but you can't go to next door for breakfast anymore?" I'm more interested in the human dynamics of this situation than I am in whose vehicle is going where or when.
 

[spacenut]

Russia may be playing a long game.  They want their old "Russian Empire" back, which later became the Soviet Union.  The took Crimea from the Ukraine, which had the majority Russian speaking population.  Several eastern provinces of eastern Ukraine are majority Russian.  This is just like Czechoslovakia in the 1939, when Hitler took the German speaking areas.  Then a few months later took the rest without firing a shot. 

The eastern part of the Ukraine is where the Zenit was manufactured.  If they can take this area or stir up enough rebellion in those areas, the get the Zenit back, which is similar in power to the Falcon 9, as well as size.  This area was also where they manufactured some of their aircraft, like bombers. 

Another option for Russia is to try to get a pro-Russian government in place like in Belorus.  I don't think Putin wants to get in a shooting war, just occupy when he can without firing a shot. 

[edkyle99]

I don't think it survive with a state behaving the way Vlad's Russia is right now. I think it's best the hatch gets closed and we jettison away and get out of this ridiculous situation. Sad, but true, you asked.

I don't think that this "jettison away" is possible.  ISS is fueled by Progress spacecraft, filling tanks on one or more of the Russian blocks.  I believe that those blocks also provide attitude control and some life support functions.  A non-Russian ISS would probably just be a giant piece of space junk.  That would be a shame, because ISS is one of the great accomplishments of human kind.

An invasion means the end of ISS, the end of CRS, Commercial Crew, etc., in my opinion, until and unless something replaces the station.

 - Ed Kyle

[JayWee]

Can the Axiom station be built without the ISS ?

[RonM]

There's a lot of smart people around the world working on ISS planning and operations. It wouldn't surprise me if there are contingency plans to operate the Russian side of ISS if Russia just gave up on it.

I used to work in IT disaster recovery planning. If you don't examine possible failure scenarios you are planning to fail.

[IRobot]

Russia's revenues come mainly from oil & gas (36%) and they know they have no future in that. As the world is shifting away from oil & gas, in 20 years they could be in a very bad economical situation, so they know they have to do something now.

As wars (real and informational) are easier to do than to actually try to diversify the economy, they will keep the aggression.

I think Russia could use this as an excuse to end ISS partnership and just abandon it. They could even switch to China's side, using China's fresh money to keep their launch industry. China could allow this to create a bigger anti-west block.

This would probably be the end of ISS, as AFAIK the russian segment is not so easy to detach. I remember reading that in an attempt to undock, rubber seals would probably disintegrate, among other issues. This, even if a replacement for attitude and thrust is created.

[edkyle99]

There's a lot of smart people around the world working on ISS planning and operations. It wouldn't surprise me if there are contingency plans to operate the Russian side of ISS if Russia just gave up on it.

I used to work in IT disaster recovery planning. If you don't examine possible failure scenarios you are planning to fail.

According to this several-year-old report, NASA does have a plan.  It is called "orderly evacuation".
https://spectrum.ieee.org/what-happens-if-russia-abandons-the-international-space-station

 - Ed Kyle

[RonM]

There's a lot of smart people around the world working on ISS planning and operations. It wouldn't surprise me if there are contingency plans to operate the Russian side of ISS if Russia just gave up on it.

I used to work in IT disaster recovery planning. If you don't examine possible failure scenarios you are planning to fail.

According to this several-year-old report, NASA does have a plan.  It is called "orderly evacuation".
https://spectrum.ieee.org/what-happens-if-russia-abandons-the-international-space-station

 - Ed Kyle

So, your response is based on a nearly seven year old article. How enlightening. 

If that's still true today, I want the ISS portion of my tax dollars back.

[yg1968]

The ISS would survive. But the turn of events does justify the decision not to put Russia in the critical path for Gateway and Artemis. Bridenstine made the right decision when it came to Russia's involvement in Gateway and the Artemis Accords.

[Johnnyhinbos]

Personally, and I do know this conversation is veering away from ISS talk, but it’s all connected - Russia has been running some 200 trains, averaging 57 cars per train, of military hardware into Belarus. This is several brigades, and much of these assets have come from the Far East. This is independent of the buildup along Ukraine’s eastern contested region or what’s been moving into Crimea.  I don’t believe this kind of buildup has happened in Western Europe in some time. Russia has also announced a live fire exercise into the Irish EEZ and is moving some sizable naval assets out of the north (North Sea and the Baltic Sea) south to…?

Point being, this is moving into some new territory- something that’s not been seen for a - long - time. I’m not too sure the ISS will be able to continue business as usual if Russia moves into Ukraine from Belarus, as that means a broad invasion - towards Kyiv.

I really hope this de-escalates soon and tensions ease and this entire conversation becomes moot.

[Robotbeat]

Can the Axiom station be built without the ISS ?

Yes. And since NASA has suggested their intention of using commercial crew (cargo?) to send astronauts to commercial space stations, I think commercial crew (and maybe cargo) would survive in some form. Also, Gateway is nearing launch, and it is the de facto successor to ISS.

[Robotbeat]

The ISS would survive. But the turn of events does justify the decision not to put Russia in the critical path for Gateway and Artemis. Bridenstine made the right decision when it came to Russia's involvement in Gateway and the Artemis Accords.

Maybe. But perhaps it would've played some role in averting an invasion.

Maybe it still could.

[Robotbeat]

There's a lot of smart people around the world working on ISS planning and operations. It wouldn't surprise me if there are contingency plans to operate the Russian side of ISS if Russia just gave up on it.

I used to work in IT disaster recovery planning. If you don't examine possible failure scenarios you are planning to fail.

According to this several-year-old report, NASA does have a plan.  It is called "orderly evacuation".
https://spectrum.ieee.org/what-happens-if-russia-abandons-the-international-space-station

 - Ed Kyle

So, your response is based on a nearly seven year old article. How enlightening. 

If that's still true today, I want the ISS portion of my tax dollars back.

Yeah, the US has demonstrated using its visiting vehicles to help boost ISS, and commercial crew is operational. There are more options now. (Although the result might be the same.)

[Robotbeat]

What I *really* want to know is if OneWeb can survive an Russian invasion... Sanctions could be overlooked for ISS since Russia launches stuff for the Russian side, US/partners for the USOS side. But OneWeb literally uses Russian launch vehicles...

(May be able to switch to something else, but... What??)