Angara-1.2 - Kosmos 2555 (EO MKA#2) - Plesetsk - 29 April 2022 (19:55 UTC)

[Salo]

April 26.

[Satori]

Launch at 19:30UTC according to NK forum.

[B. Hendrickx]

Three more NOTAMs have appeared in recent days, pointing to a launch on April 26 between 19.30 and 20.30 UTC and a back-up opportunity on April 27 (same window). The trajectory is reminiscent of a launch to Sun-synchronous orbit.

The first one, created on April 19, was posted on the NK forum:

A2600/22 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7127N03204E025
A) ENOB B) 2204261930 C) 2204272030
D) DAILY 1930-2030
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA RUS MISSILE APR22 AREA 1 ACTIVATED AT PSN
715120N 0320500E –
710230N 0320500E –
714343N 0310800E –
(715120N0320500E)

IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES
F) SFC G) UNL
CREATED: 19 Apr 2022 09:22:00
SOURCE: EUECYIYN

A2601/22 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7346N02858E042
A) ENOB B) 2204261930 C) 2204272030
D) DAILY 1930-2030
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA RUS MISSILE APR22 AREA 2 ACTIVATED AT PSN
741400N 0271518E
742532N 0284515E 
731705N 0303530E
730545N 0291110E
(741400N 0271518E) IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES

F) SFC G) UNL
CREATED: 19 Apr 2022 09:28:00
SOURCE: EUECYIYN

A second one appeared yesterday. It was posted on the SeeSat list:
http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Apr-2022/0136.html
(see the attachment)
Note that it refers to an “aircraft launching” rather than the usual “missile launching”.

A third one, issued today, has identical coordinates, but now mentions both a missile and aircraft launching.

NAVAREA XIX 42-22
BARENTS SEA
1.MISSILE AND AIRCRAFT LAUNCHING DAILY 1930 TO 2030 UTC 26 TO 27 APR 22
 AREAS DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION
2.AREA 1
A. 71-54.10N 032-27.27E
B. 70-54.52N 033-44.05E
C. 70-44.22N 032-28.49E
D. 71-43.43N 031-08.00E
E. 71-54.10N 032-27.27E
3. AREA 2.
A. 74-25.32N 028-45.15E
B. 73-17.05N 030-35.30E
C. 73-05.45N 029-11.10E
D. 74-14.00N 027-15.18E
E. 74-25.32N 028-45.15E
4. CANCEL THIS MSG 272130 UTC APR 22

I’m told “aircraft launching” is a very unusual term for NOTAMs. A possible explanation is that we’re about to witness a test flight of the air-launched Burevestnik ASAT interceptor. In that scenario, Angara-A1.2 would first place into orbit a target (the “missile launching”), followed shortly afterwards by the launch of a Burevestnik interceptor from the belly of a MiG-3BM (the “aircraft launching”) and a possible intercept (or simulated intercept) early in the mission.

As far as we can tell, Burevestnik is launched from the MiG by a three-stage solid-fuel rocket referred to in some documentation as “Product 293”. It is known that infrastructure for Burevestnik has been under construction at Plesetsk for some time, more specifically at the cosmodrome’s airport. The latest available Google Earth imagery (July 2021) did indicate that it was far from ready. See the Burevestnik thread:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45734.60

While the "293" rocket would be making its first flight, the Burevestnik interceptors themselves have probably already been tested in orbit after being launched by conventional launch vehicles (prime suspects being Kosmos-2491, 2499, 2504 and 2535 or 2536).

Another NOTAM issued earlier this month also appears to be related to the Angara launch (see Reply 19). It mentions two impact areas in the Pacific, which are marked in the attached maps (from the NK forum). Impact area 2 has been interpreted on the SeeSat list as the possible deorbit zone for Angara’s upper stage about 2.3 revolutions after launch (Angara-A1.2 has a small upper stage known as the “aggregate module” or AM).  I’ve seen no explanation for the other one. Burevestnik’s “293” rocket also has an upper stage (designated 14S47), but it burns solid fuel and can probably not be re-ignited for deorbit.

So is Russia getting ready for its second ASAT test in 5 months? All this is still very speculative, but the least one can say is that the NOTAM’s reference to “a missile and aircraft launching” is quite suspicious.

[input~2]

Another version of A2601 and A2600:

A2601/22 - TEMPO DANGER AREA RUS MISSILE APR22 AREA 2 ACTIVATED AT PSN 741400N 0271518E - 742532N 0284515E - 731705N 0303530E - 730545N
0291110E (741400N 0271518E) IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES. SFC - UNL, DAILY
1930-2030, 26 APR 19:30 2022 UNTIL 27 APR 20:30 2022. CREATED: 19 APR 09:28 2022

A2600/22 - TEMPO DANGER AREA RUS MISSILE APR22 AREA 1 ACTIVATED AT PSN
715120N 0320500E - 710230N 0320500E - 714343N 0310800E - (715120N0320500E)
IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES. SFC - UNL, DAILY 1930-2030, 26 APR 19:30 2022
UNTIL 27 APR 20:30 2022. CREATED: 19 APR 09:22 2022

and outline of navigational warning areas below:

[input~2]

Apparently launch has been delayed to NET May 1st:

NAVAREA XIX Warnings

Number:	44/22
Date:	231830 UTC apr 22
Warning:	NAVAREA XIX 44/22  BARENTS SEA  1.MISSILE AND AIRCRAFT LAUNCHING DAILY 1930 TO 2030 UTC 01 TO 07 MAY 22  AREAS DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION  2.AREA 1  A. 71-54.10N 032-27.27E  B. 70-54.52N 033-44.05E  C. 70-44.22N 032-28.49E  D. 71-43.43N 031-08.00E  E. 71-54.10N 032-27.27E  3. AREA 2.  A. 74-25.32N 028-45.15E  B. 73-17.05N 030-35.30E  C. 73-05.45N 029-11.10E  D. 74-14.00N 027-15.18E  E. 74-25.32N 028-45.15E  4. CANCEL THIS MSG 072130 UTC MAY 22

[input~2]

NOTAMs A2600/22 & A2601/22 have been removed, confirming the delay

[B. Hendrickx]

The first impact area is roughly 1000 km from Plesetsk. This is about the same distance from the cosmodrome where the 1st stage and the payload fairing came down during the Angara-1.2PP suborbital launch in 2014. The first stage and the payload fairing separated with an interval of just 10 seconds, which is why no separate impact zones were needed for the two.

Assuming then that the first impact area is for Angara's first stage and payload fairing, the question is what the second impact area is needed for. This is several hundred kilometers further north. Obviously, it can't be for Angara's second stage, which burns for almost five minutes.

[asmi]

The first impact area is roughly 1000 km from Plesetsk. This is about the same distance from the cosmodrome where the 1st stage and the payload fairing came down during the Angara-1.2PP suborbital launch in 2014. The first stage and the payload fairing separated with an interval of just 10 seconds, which is why no separate impact zones were needed for the two.

Assuming then that the first impact area is for Angara's first stage and payload fairing, the question is what the second impact area is needed for. This is several hundred kilometers further north. Obviously, it can't be for Angara's second stage, which burns for almost five minutes.

Maybe they now plan on getting rid of the fairing earlier? Since the second stage now is lighter than during 2014 launch (as that time it was a full A5 stage so oversized for the 1.2 version), the whole stack will be higher, faster and further than 2014 one was, which presumably allows dropping fairing earlier to optimize payload capacity.

[B. Hendrickx]

Launch now scheduled for April 28 at 22:55:22 Moscow time (19.55:22 UTC), according to a source on the NK forum.

[B. Hendrickx]

The new launch date is confirmed by the latest NOTAM, which now again refers only to an "aircraft launching".

251730 UTC APR 22
NAVAREA XX 60/22
BARENTS SEA.
CHART RUS 10100.
1. AIRCRAFT LAUNCHING 1930 TO2030 UTC
DAILY 28 APR TO 07 MAY IN AREAS
DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION BOUNDED BY:
A. 71-54-10N 032-27-27E, 70-54-52N 033-44-05E,
70-44-22N 032-28-49E, 71-43-43N 031-08-00E,
B. 74-25-32N 028-45-15E, 73-17-05N 030-35-30E,
73-05-45N 029-11-10E, 74-14-00N 027-15-18E.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 072130 UTC MAY 22.=
NNNN

[satcomopsuk]

Here are what look like the final Notice to Mariners for the upcoming launch as downlinked via Inmarsat AoR and IoR

[Nicolas PILLET]

Regarding terminology, please note that :

- this version is called Angara-1.2, not Angara-A1.2.

- the AM is considered as a part of the second stage (to compensate for its reduced diameter compared to Angara-A5's URM-2), and not as an upper stage like Fregat or Briz.

[Skyrocket]

Regarding terminology, please note that :

- this version is called Angara-1.2, not Angara-A1.2.

- the AM is considered as a part of the second stage (to compensate for its reduced diameter compared to Angara-A5's URM-2), and not as an upper stage like Fregat or Briz.

I am not quite sure, if all Angara-1.2 feature the AM as part of the second stage or if there are versions which do not feature the AM

[Nicolas PILLET]

In principle, according to my informations, it is not possible to launch an Angara-1.2 without the AM.

[Skyrocket]

In principle, according to my informations, it is not possible to launch an Angara-1.2 without the AM.

This is basically what i had heard, too. So it should be better referred to by the designation "Angara-1.2" and not "Angara-1.2/AM"

[Satori]

Regarding terminology, please note that :

- this version is called Angara-1.2, not Angara-A1.2.

- the AM is considered as a part of the second stage (to compensate for its reduced diameter compared to Angara-A5's URM-2), and not as an upper stage like Fregat or Briz.

But, isn't the final push to orbit given by the AM after separation from the second stage? It works like a tug (?)

[Satori]

And according to NK forum, the basic serial number are Ангара-1.2 (№1Л)/АМ (№1Л).

[zubenelgenubi]

This potentially strategically important test launch is coming up in less than 90 minutes.

[owais.usmani]

This potentially strategically important test launch is coming up in less than 90 minutes.

How is this strategically important?

[B. Hendrickx]

Scrubbed for today according to posts on the NK forum.