Space-Track assignments so far:
2021-057: Progress MS-17 on 29 June
2021-058: LauncherOne on 30 June
2021-061: OneWeb on 1 July
2021-062: Jilin-1 on 3 July
Between LauncherÓne and OneWeb there was Transporter-2 on 30 June. But what is the second missing ID?
Most likely: Counting error by 18SPCS, too much holiday booze
Second option:
Simorgh launch on Jun 23 was a failure, but a small piece of the rocket stage makes orbit even though the payload doesn't. Like 1985-053 where the Zenit-2 separation motor covers made orbit but nothing else did. Out of sequence because it took a while for the US
to detect and identify the new debris.
Not sure I'd say this is a *likely* scenario, but it wouldn't be unprecedented
Most likely: Counting error by 18SPCS, too much holiday booze
Second option:
Simorgh launch on Jun 23 was a failure, but a small piece of the rocket stage makes orbit even though the payload doesn't. Like 1985-053 where the Zenit-2 separation motor covers made orbit but nothing else did. Out of sequence because it took a while for the US
to detect and identify the new debris.
Not sure I'd say this is a *likely* scenario, but it wouldn't be unprecedented
I went on Space-Track minutes ago and they corrected the COSPAR ID for the July 1 launch to 2021-060. Since the NORAD IDs 48878 to 48967 don't show up this moment, the June 30 Falcon launch has COSPAR ID 2021-059.