I think I was a little too harsh in my comments on the Rocketlab Venus mission. I thought that DAVINCI, like the Huygens probe to Titan, had a capability to collect the cloud particles and analyze them separately from the gas. After reading about DAVINCI I don't see any mention of this. I am unsure what their strategy to study the composition of the cloud particles is, or if they have one.
I now believe that the Rocketlab mission will do some things that DAVINCI doesn't do. DAVINCI does not appear to do any analysis of particle size, shape or refractive index. The refractive index changes as the proportion of water in the sulfuric acid droplets changes. Recent results from Venus Express indicate that it might be too high for a simple mixture of sulfuric-acid and water. This would mean that another substance is also present.
I'm not sure which mission is more capable when it comes to detecting organics in the cloud drops. The DAVINCI instrument is based on SAM from Mars Curiosity which was very sensitive to organic compounds.
A good overview of the Rocketlab mission is here:
https://www.mdpi.com/2226-4310/9/7/385The NSF thread on the mission is here:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=51581.0
SNIP to shorten things
Arguments that just dismiss even the slightest possibility of life are just exercises in defeatism in my book as they seem to be putting cynicism in front of any actual data or even scientific investigation. I mean why even bother searching for even the possibility of life if you’re just going to dismiss it out of hand before you’ve even started.
Science isn't about what we want. Its about finding what is.
I'm all for finding if there is life on Venus. However, the entire discussion has no solid evidence and sucks all air out of the room, making life almost a forgone conclusion.
So in other words you have no actual decent counter argument other than you personally don’t like the discussion.
Show me any science behind the idea. Aside from handwavey maybe tiny amounts of phosphine gas? Literally nothing. Otherwise lets talk about science.
Saying science a lot doesn’t qualify as an effective discussion.
Just released FY25 budget proposal has these proposed changes for DAVINCI and VERITAS:
"This budget supports the VERITAS mission to launch during an available Venus opportunity in
2031-2032. NASA reduced the future Discovery and Planetary SmallSat budgets which will delay the
release of the next Discovery and SIMPLEx AOs to no earlier than FY 2026. This budget also delays the
DAVINCI mission launch from 2029 to an available Venus opportunity in the 2031-2032 timeframe."
Page PS-46
https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/nasa-fy-2025-congressional-justification.pdf?emrc=65ef360b75003
Have we heard anything more about RocketLab's Venus mission?
The GAO's annual assessment of major NASA projects was reporting a June 2029 launch date with PDR in June 2025 at a cost of between $1.2 and $1.6B.
https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106767.pdf
Page 90, sheet 99
As I recall, that is within the range from when the project was approved. I believe that the GAO report includes total NASA costs including such things as launch, which are outside the PI costs that are frequently focused on for Discovery missions.
The GAO's annual assessment of major NASA projects was reporting a June 2029 launch date with PDR in June 2025 at a cost of between $1.2 and $1.6B.
https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106767.pdf
Page 90, sheet 99
As I recall, that is within the range from when the project was approved. I believe that the GAO report includes total NASA costs including such things as launch, which are outside the PI costs that are frequently focused on for Discovery missions.
I did a quick search through Space News and did not find a budget other than the hand-wavy "$500 million for Discovery." I do think they were expected to be close to a billion dollars apiece, but I want to find a more authoritative source. A prior GAO report might provide that.
The GAO's annual assessment of major NASA projects was reporting a June 2029 launch date with PDR in June 2025 at a cost of between $1.2 and $1.6B.
https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-24-106767.pdf
Page 90, sheet 99
As I recall, that is within the range from when the project was approved. I believe that the GAO report includes total NASA costs including such things as launch, which are outside the PI costs that are frequently focused on for Discovery missions.
I did a quick search through Space News and did not find a budget other than the hand-wavy "$500 million for Discovery." I do think they were expected to be close to a billion dollars apiece, but I want to find a more authoritative source. A prior GAO report might provide that.
The AO listed PI costs as $500M FY19. Various charts that I remember on full NASA costs were closer to $1B. Add in inflation and NASA requested mission development delays, and the costs listed in the GAO report don't seem to be surprising to me.
Have we heard anything more about RocketLab's Venus mission?
Not much news but Peter Beck and Sara Seager appear to have given a minor interview in November:
https://payloadspace.com/rocket-lab-takes-on-venus/Seager describes fundraising among MIT alums for the nephelometer:
The process for fundraising has been unconventional, to say the least.
“First we had no money. We were just volunteering. We had a tiny amount of money to give to our instrument builder for a concept study to hammer out a prototype. And then we had to get the money from the MIT alums to build the instrument. Then we got actual real money, like enough money to redesign and rebuild the instrument,” Seager said. “In science we don’t usually operate that way.”
And Beck basically says the mission has been a loss leader for Rocket Lab:
Beck said that if an external agency wanted to contract a science mission with this system in the future, the cost would be in the same ballpark as CAPSTONE, at tens of millions. For this mission [Venus Life Finder] though, he said the cost will be significantly lower.
“We’re not running off and spending tens of millions of shareholders’ dollars on a science project, that’s for sure,” Beck said.
Rocket Lab isn’t earning any revenue on this mission [Venus Life Finder]—it wasn’t even really in the cards, according to Beck, who describes it as a “nights and weekends project,” pulled together from scraps of past missions. The commercial benefit could instead come from proving to government funders that missions of this magnitude are possible to do quickly and at low cost.
“We do believe that this will create a new business line for us at the end of it,” Beck said.
Not mission specific, but there have been positive developments ruling out certain explanations for the phosphine readings over the past week or two:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/29/science/venus-gases-phosphine-ammonia/index.html
The AO listed PI costs as $500M FY19. Various charts that I remember on full NASA costs were closer to $1B. Add in inflation and NASA requested mission development delays, and the costs listed in the GAO report don't seem to be surprising to me.
Ah yes, that had not factored into my brain--how long is the delay? Any delay will result in increased inflation. But I cannot find definitive information on that. Has the launch slipped from 2029 to 2032?
Update: Wikipedia lists a launch date of 2032, but I never totally trust Wikipedia, I just use it as a starting point.
Have we heard anything more about RocketLab's Venus mission?
I have no evidence, but I suspect it'll be a long time if it happens. It was more of a publicity thing. Thats alot of personel, time, and money to spend on something that won't earn the company anything. Just like how spacex work on mars is 100% on twitter. Its great to talk about, but doesn't really get far.
Have we heard anything more about RocketLab's Venus mission?
I have no evidence, but I suspect it'll be a long time if it happens. It was more of a publicity thing. Thats alot of personel, time, and money to spend on something that won't earn the company anything. Just like how spacex work on mars is 100% on twitter. Its great to talk about, but doesn't really get far.
It's also very much dependent on tech and experience they are developing for other things. So they probably won't start really nailing down the design until after (as one example) the ESCAPADE mission flies, and they get some data back from those two spacecraft, and experience with managing spacecraft in interplanetary space.
But the Rocket Lab Venus mission has it's own thread (
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=51581.100) so anymore discussion should really happen over there.
The AO listed PI costs as $500M FY19. Various charts that I remember on full NASA costs were closer to $1B. Add in inflation and NASA requested mission development delays, and the costs listed in the GAO report don't seem to be surprising to me.
Ah yes, that had not factored into my brain--how long is the delay? Any delay will result in increased inflation. But I cannot find definitive information on that. Has the launch slipped from 2029 to 2032?
Update: Wikipedia lists a launch date of 2032, but I never totally trust Wikipedia, I just use it as a starting point.
From the FY 2025 NASA Budget Request, page 399 (PS-48):
https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/fy-2025-full-budget-request-congressional-justification-update.pdfGiven budget constraints in FY 2025, this budget request reduces DAVINCI funding and delays the mission launch from 2029 until an available Venus opportunity in the 2031-2032 timeframe. Further mission planning in the coming year will determine a more definitive mission schedule.
Have we heard anything more about RocketLab's Venus mission?
I have no evidence, but I suspect it'll be a long time if it happens. It was more of a publicity thing. Thats alot of personel, time, and money to spend on something that won't earn the company anything.
I think it was also announced before they indicated a major shift in their rocket strategy. I otherwise agree with you.
So much of the space game is like Three Card Monty where we are looking at one shiny object as another one slides off the table. Did I ever mention that I went to the Golden Spike press announcement? I wonder what happened to them?
Given budget constraints in FY 2025, this budget request reduces DAVINCI funding and delays the mission launch from 2029 until an available Venus opportunity in the 2031-2032 timeframe. Further mission planning in the coming year will determine a more definitive mission schedule.
Thank you. So that's at least a 2-year slip, with of course two years of inflation to add to the budget. I'll have to keep looking to see if we had a full life-cycle budget estimate before.
From the FY 2025 NASA Budget Request, page 399 (PS-48):
https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/fy-2025-full-budget-request-congressional-justification-update.pdfGiven budget constraints in FY 2025, this budget request reduces DAVINCI funding and delays the mission launch from 2029 until an available Venus opportunity in the 2031-2032 timeframe. Further mission planning in the coming year will determine a more definitive mission schedule.
[/quote]
Part of the budget magic to bring VERITAS back was to delay DAVINCI to support two Discovery missions in the Discovery funding wedge. I suspect that given budget forecasts, NASA can fund development on one New Frontiers or two Discovery missions at a time, but not both at once in prime funding years.
Have we heard anything more about RocketLab's Venus mission?
I have no evidence, but I suspect it'll be a long time if it happens. It was more of a publicity thing. Thats alot of personel, time, and money to spend on something that won't earn the company anything. Just like how spacex work on mars is 100% on twitter. Its great to talk about, but doesn't really get far.
It's also very much dependent on tech and experience they are developing for other things. So they probably won't start really nailing down the design until after (as one example) the ESCAPADE mission flies, and they get some data back from those two spacecraft, and experience with managing spacecraft in interplanetary space.
But the Rocket Lab Venus mission has it's own thread (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=51581.100) so anymore discussion should really happen over there.
Aye, if rocketlab does go through with the mission I suspect it'll be launched on a neutron. All their staff is busy designing that and other things. They probably don't have the bandwidth to work on something like the venus mission.