Investment in space companies

[TrevorMonty]

Astra successful launch hasn't helped their share price of about $9.50, I was expecting a significant increase. If anything it's gone down from $10.50 few days ago.

RL have gone up from $14.50 to $15.50 over week with couple of $16+ spikes, successful launch and recent purchase of another company seem to be reason.



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[Tywin]

Astra successful launch hasn't helped their share price of about $9.50, I was expecting a significant increase. If anything it's gone down from $10.50 few days ago.

RL have gone up from $14.50 to $15.50 over week with couple of $16+ spikes, successful launch and recent purchase of another company seem to be reason.



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The market, was closed when Astra launch with success her rocket...

We will see what happend this Monday...

[Danderman]

The emergence of pure play space launch companies might allow people to bet on launches.

[M.E.T.]

Not much money in the launch market. After you take out the segments owned by SpaceX and by various state actors, what’s left of the pie?

[TrevorMonty]

Not much money in the launch market. After you take out the segments owned by SpaceX and by various state actors, what’s left of the pie?

Launch is smallest part of space market but essential for accessing it. SpaceX, RL, Firefly and Astra all intend to expand beyond launch. SpaceX and RL are already doing this, Firefly has won lander contract that will launch on F9.




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[TrevorMonty]

Astra successful launch hasn't helped their share price of about $9.50, I was expecting a significant increase. If anything it's gone down from $10.50 few days ago.

RL have gone up from $14.50 to $15.50 over week with couple of $16+ spikes, successful launch and recent purchase of another company seem to be reason.



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The market, was closed when Astra launch with success her rocket...

We will see what happend this Monday...

You were right, now at $11.5.

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[RDMM2081]

Astra successful launch hasn't helped their share price of about $9.50, I was expecting a significant increase. If anything it's gone down from $10.50 few days ago.

RL have gone up from $14.50 to $15.50 over week with couple of $16+ spikes, successful launch and recent purchase of another company seem to be reason.



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The market, was closed when Astra launch with success her rocket...

We will see what happend this Monday...

Very interesting, ASTR was up to almost $14 today after their successful launch.  RKLB also had a successful launch last week and their stock price dropped $2-3.

[Danderman]

It will be interesting to see if future successful launches impact share price. If that happens, look for betting on space launches to become a thing.

[TrevorMonty]

The last month has been hard on newly listed companies. Some of this is just share market in general.
RL are at $12 and seem to be recovering. They have plenty of cash reserves and revenue streams from some of new acquistions, just need fly Electron more often to give that significant boost. Electron has customers just struggling to deliver due to launch failures and COVID lockdowns in 2020 & 2021. COVID border restrictions also make it difficult for payload customers to enter NZ and help with launch preparations. Having Wallops operational early 2022 should give them more launch options.

Virgin Orbit $8. Only just completed SPAC merger to become publicly traded company. The below expected price resulted in considerable less cash reserves for new company. While LauncherOne maybe operational its a long way from flying regularly enough to stem their losses. May struggle to raise more money if needed.

Astra $7. Still heading downwards. Have plenty of cash reserves for now but need to fly regularly in 2022 to generate some revenue.

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[su27k]

https://twitter.com/wikkit/status/1487077829317644293

The new space SPAC race is "who is first to be delisted". I think Spire is in the lead at $2, Blacksky at $2.50, Momentus at $3, Astra close behind at $4. All $10 before they de-SPAC'd. Delisting usually happens when a stock goes under $1; could reverse split to delay it.

[TrevorMonty]

https://twitter.com/wikkit/status/1487077829317644293

The new space SPAC race is "who is first to be delisted". I think Spire is in the lead at $2, Blacksky at $2.50, Momentus at $3, Astra close behind at $4. All $10 before they de-SPAC'd. Delisting usually happens when a stock goes under $1; could reverse split to delay it.

Your post had me looking at prices again, didn't realize all new space companies had dropped significantly since my last post.

It could be good time to buy more shares, just need to choose wisely as I don't think some of these companies will survive.



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[M.E.T.]

None of them (the SPAC-space bunch) are good investments.

[trimeta]

None of them (the SPAC-space bunch) are good investments.

You would argue that any space company whose name doesn't begin with "Space" and end with "Exploration Technologies" is a bad investment.

[AllenB]

None of them (the SPAC-space bunch) are good investments.

You would argue that any space company whose name doesn't begin with "Space" and end with "Exploration Technologies" is a bad investment.

Didn't realize this thread existed until now, neat! So full disclosure, I'm a big SpaceX fan but want to see as many competitors and complements as possible. That said...

I don't see much viability from the current crowd of space startups yet. The focus seems to be almost entirely on inexpensive, small launchers. Which is great -- that's how SpaceX got going, too. But how many will be able to follow the same path of leveraging small-launch credibility into big (NASA) contracts? Not many, if any, IMHO. The launch market has changed a lot in 15 years. Small launchers are going to remain a niche product, with the rest of the market absorbed by ride-share on larger LVs and, quite possibly, fully-reusable LVs.

In my ideal world, we get a working Starship and a similarly capable competitor. That could have been Blue Origin, but enough has been said about that already -- I don't believe it will happen. Who does that leave? I'm not seeing any of the current players with the engineering and financial muscle to pull it off. Perhaps someone new and well-financed will appear on the scene and demonstrate solid execution.

Once that happens, I'd love to see a bunch of startups focused on payloads or even payload subsystems. Other than constellations, none of the current payload providers are remotely suited to take advantage of heavy, cheap lift. Cue the startup community!

Oh, and while I think Relativity's professed goal of building cheap launchers via automated production is probably pointless in a heavy, reusable world, I've got high hopes for their technology ultimately being useful elsewhere.

Allen

[M.E.T.]

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1491092888222011392?s=21

[TrevorMonty]

Now is good time to buy into these companies as share prices all took big hits in Jan. Most are showing signs of recovery but very slowly. Still case of buyer beware.

Predicted revenue streams for lot are pie in sky numbers that seem to be madeup. Astra's daily launch predictions are case in point.
Established companies like RL and Planet have some credibility here as they have strong customer bases and revenue streams but even then their projections are optimistic.




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[su27k]

Stock market losses for space companies not affecting private investment

Many space companies that have gone public in the last year through SPAC deals have suffered major losses in the stock market in recent months, but that decline doesn’t necessarily mean a broader skepticism about the industry.

More than a dozen companies have either gone public through mergers with special purpose acquisition corporations (SPACs) in the last year or have announced plans to do so. However, most of those companies have seen their share prices drop significantly, in some cases by more than 50%, since going public.

During a panel discussion at the SmallSat Symposium here Feb. 8, Mike Collett, founder and managing partner of Promus Ventures, pointed to data his company had collected on the market performance of space companies. The Promus Ventures New Space Index, which includes many space companies that have gone public in the last year, is down more than 42% in the last three months. By comparison, the Nasdaq is down 12.25% and the S&P 500 4.5%.

[su27k]

Declining value of space SPACs could trigger mergers and acquisitions

Space companies that went public in the last year only to see their valuation drop precipitously may soon become targets of acquisitions.

Potential acquirers, panelists said at the SmallSat Symposium Feb.9, range from other emerging space companies looking to move up the value chain to large aerospace companies that want to diversify.

“Absolutely,” said Matt O’Connell, operating partner at DCVC, when asked during the panel if falling share prices of publicly traded space companies made them takeover targets. “The stock price is a red flag that is going to attract people’s attention.”

[Tywin]

145% up today for Blacksky and 25% for Spire good day for these companies...

[TrevorMonty]

145% up today for Blacksky and 25% for Spire good day for these companies...

Planet not releasing information on their NRO deal until after 14th June quarterly results. Blacksky is getting $1B over 10 years, expect Planet to be similar.

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