Space tourism resurgence and manifest

[TrevorMonty]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/03/richard-branson-space-tourism-market-has-room-for-20-companies.html

Richard Branson believes the space market has room for 20 companies launching tourists
PUBLISHED SAT, JUL 3 20218:26 AM EDT
Michael Sheetz
@THESHEETZTWEETZ

KEY POINTS

Sir Richard Branson believes there is plenty of opportunity in the market for companies like Virgin Galactic, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, or Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

“There’s room for 20 space companies to take people up there,” Branson told CNBC.

The companies of Branson, Bezos, and Musk are each flying spacecraft that can carry passengers, but in different ways, as the former two fly to the edge of space while the latter goes further, into orbit.

Branson reckons market for suborbital is 2 million at current ticket prices. Just servicing 1% of that forecast is going keep VG and Blue busy for few years.

If suborbital market turns out this big then it maybe worth some of small LV businesses going after. Follow Blues approach and use reuseable booster with capsule. 1000kg class booster should be able launch NS size capsule.

Sent from my SM-G570Y using Tapatalk

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I’m sceptical that anyone can predict likely market size before commercial flights are underway, but not long to wait now. I do believe that long-term the market will prove large enough to support multiple providers, for both suborbital and orbital.

It’ll be interesting to see if there’s a notable difference in demand for different types of flight (such as horizontal vs vertical take-off). Personally I have more confidence in Blue Origin now than Virgin Galactic (due to the history of SpaceShipTwo issues). But the market may take a different view; particularly if/when there are a number of successful commercial flights.

Do more people want a traditional astronaut-like experience, in a capsule on top of a rocket? Or find a more aircraft-like vehicle and flight profile familiar and reassuring? It’s going to be fascinating to see how it plays out. I’m assuming similar ticket prices, but I guess a price war could happen at some point.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Suborbital manifest updated to reflect today’s SS2 flight:

https://twitter.com/virgingalactic/status/1414260353131696131

The #Unity22 crew floating in zero gravity. Watch the flight at virgingalactic.com. @richardbranson

[Coastal Ron]

I’m sceptical that anyone can predict likely market size before commercial flights are underway, but not long to wait now.

You are right that no one can truly understand a market size until the service exists and real demand can be measured. But I disagree we'll know it soon as there is a finite supply of people that can afford and WANT $250,000 rides to space.

That last part, the "want" is important, since so far all we've seen is the hyper surrounding the experience, but just like with movies that get hyped months (or even years) before they are released, the public can sometimes be savage critics of the experience.

So until we get paying customers to go through the experience in a non-biased way, we won't truly know whether the experience can generate enough interest to not only survive, but thrive.

I do believe that long-term the market will prove large enough to support multiple providers, for both suborbital and orbital.

Color me skeptical about that, since I just don't see that large of a market for such a short experience.

It’ll be interesting to see if there’s a notable difference in demand for different types of flight (such as horizontal vs vertical take-off).

What they are marketing is the experience once they reach space, so I don't think it really matters how they get there, as long as everyone survives.

This was an important milestone for Virgin Galactic today, but I don't think it will change the market - whatever the market is.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

It’ll be interesting to see if there’s a notable difference in demand for different types of flight (such as horizontal vs vertical take-off).

What they are marketing is the experience once they reach space, so I don't think it really matters how they get there, as long as everyone survives.

One thing that struck me during Richard Branson’s flight - and also mentioned on the NSF stream - was the extra time to reflect on the experience while gliding back down.

A flight on New Shepard is pretty intense, including descent and landing. Total NS flight time from launch to landing is about 11 minutes. Unity22 yesterday took about 12.5 minutes from apogee to touchdown, or about 13 minutes to wheel stop.

I think for some people - including myself - that difference may be significant. (Although academic in my case as I don’t have the money!)

[niwax]

It’ll be interesting to see if there’s a notable difference in demand for different types of flight (such as horizontal vs vertical take-off).

What they are marketing is the experience once they reach space, so I don't think it really matters how they get there, as long as everyone survives.

One thing that struck me during Richard Branson’s flight - and also mentioned on the NSF stream - was the extra time to reflect on the experience while gliding back down.

A flight on New Shepard is pretty intense, including descent and landing. Total NS flight time from launch to landing is about 11 minutes. Unity22 yesterday took about 12.5 minutes from apogee to touchdown, or about 13 minutes to wheel stop.

I think for some people - including myself - that difference may be significant. (Although academic in my case as I don’t have the money!)

Virgin seems to be vastly more capable in terms of designing a tourism experience, as would be expected with their background. Not only the flight profile, but also details around the capsule and so on.

[laszlo]

Do more people want a traditional astronaut-like experience, in a capsule on top of a rocket? Or find a more aircraft-like vehicle and flight profile familiar and reassuring? It’s going to be fascinating to see how it plays out. I’m assuming similar ticket prices, but I guess a price war could happen at some point.

Personally, I'd want both. They complement, not compete with, each other. It's a chance to get the Edwards rocket plane experience as well as the early Mercury/Vostok experience. Perhaps some adventure company ought to start reselling pairs of flights as The Right Stuff Adventure Package.

The 800 lb gorilla in the room, of course, is the price. My wife and I were laughing our heads off at the hyperbole during the flight coverage, especially when they were saying that spaceflight was now in everyone's reach - even though it's priced at 4x the average pre-tax earnings in the world's wealthiest nation, most of whose residents would find an unexpected $400 expense catastrophic. Branson's ad copy is a strong contender for the 2021 Marie Antoinette Social Awareness Award, AKA the Cakey.

edit - fixed italics

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1414601556821950466

Here's what I think Richard Branson's flight really means about the future of spaceflight: It was vain. It was flamboyant. But most importantly, it completely changes the game.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/heres-why-richard-bransons-flight-matters-and-yes-it-really-matters/

Here’s why Richard Branson’s flight matters—and, yes, it really matters
“I absolutely believe this is that moment."

ERIC BERGER - 7/12/2021, 3:50 PM

I’m with Eric on this:

It is also true that only the very rich can afford to go to space now, but you have to start somewhere.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/rogozin/status/1414290445493018627

Google translate:

I hope that someday our billionaire oligarchs will start spending their money not on regular yachts and vanity fairs, but on the development of space technologies and knowledge about space.

[Asteroza]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/rogozin/status/1414290445493018627

Google translate:

I hope that someday our billionaire oligarchs will start spending their money not on regular yachts and vanity fairs, but on the development of space technologies and knowledge about space.

Ooooh, is that a threat or a promise...

[Zed_Noir]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/rogozin/status/1414290445493018627

Google translate:

I hope that someday our billionaire oligarchs will start spending their money not on regular yachts and vanity fairs, but on the development of space technologies and knowledge about space.

Ooooh, is that a threat or a promise...

See it as a plea for help. Since the space budget from the Russian government will likely be shrinking in the years ahead as fossil fuels usage declines worldwide.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Interesting couple of suborbital flight tags on this tweet …

https://twitter.com/spaceadventures/status/1417149792770301961

While visiting the International Space Station, Space Adventures' #space flight clients orbit Earth every 90 minutes while traveling at 17,000 miles per hour. They witness 16 sunrises and 16 sunsets each day! What a view! #ISS #NewShepard #Unity22 #Soyuz

[Lars-J]

Interesting:

https://twitter.com/rogozin/status/1414290445493018627

Google translate:

I hope that someday our billionaire oligarchs will start spending their money not on regular yachts and vanity fairs, but on the development of space technologies and knowledge about space.

Ooooh, is that a threat or a promise...

A desperate plea, certainly not a threat. Otherwise his boss (Putin is one of the richest men in Russia) would come down on him hard.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

If you’re wondering how the inaugural crewed flight of NS went, here’s a clue:

https://twitter.com/tweetsoutloud/status/1417477785673768968

[Rocket Science]

OK Elon, you're up next!

[docmordrid]

I’m sceptical that anyone can predict likely market size before commercial flights are underway, but not long to wait now. I do believe that long-term the market will prove large enough to support multiple providers, for both suborbital and orbital.
>

The current joyride model is unsustainable, too many $$ for too few minutes and the distances covered you could achieve with a motor vehicle.

I see suborbital Point to Point as more sustainable, be it using the Starship model, winged, lifting body, or waverider vehicle of some kind. At that point these joyrides assume the historical niche now occupied by the barnstormers.

[daedalus1]

I’m sceptical that anyone can predict likely market size before commercial flights are underway, but not long to wait now. I do believe that long-term the market will prove large enough to support multiple providers, for both suborbital and orbital.
>

The current joyride model is unsustainable, too many $$ for too few minutes and the distances covered you could achieve with a motor vehicle.

I see suborbital Point to Point as more sustainable, be it using the Starship model, winged, lifting body, or waverider vehicle of some kind. At that point these joyrides assume the historical niche now occupied by the barnstormers.

"Joyride" is not the right term (it's made to be detrimental). Suborbital flight is actually going to a unique place that many people have described as beautiful. You may not be inspired to go there indeed may likely not even have the spare money. But out of a world population of nearly 8 billion there will in my opinion be an almost endless queue for tickets.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

No commercial space astronaut wings for space tourists:

twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1417914073900064772

Interesting. So officially at least, most passengers on Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic vehicles are unlikely to be deemed "astronauts" by the U.S government.

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1417914544198930441

Note that won't stop these companies from pinning "astronaut wings" on their customers. That's a huge part of their marketing. But according to U.S. regulators you aren't going to be an astronaut.

Details:

https://twitter.com/space_jared/status/1417907188949991426

The FAA has released a new order on who qualifies for Commercial Space Astronaut Wings and there are some interesting things in here.

twitter.com/space_jared/status/1417907190053081088

Two ways to qualify: (1) Either you are a crewmember that meets flight crew qualifications, demonstrated flight beyond 50 miles on a licensed launch, and demonstrated activities during flight that were essential to public safety, or contributed to human space flight safety... OR

https://twitter.com/space_jared/status/1417907190996811779

You could be an "individual whose contribution to commercial human space flight merits special recognition..." as determined by the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation. "These individuals... may not be required to satisfy all eligibility requirements."

twitter.com/space_jared/status/1417907191969878023

The honorary wings can be granted posthumously and all commercial space wings will be bestowed at the "total discretion" of the AA for Commercial Space Transportation.

https://twitter.com/space_jared/status/1417907192867565574

The AA for AST "shall be the final authority to make the determination that a crewmember is eligible to be awarded the Commercial Space Astronaut Wings. To verify that the crew has satisfied the eligibility requirements and at the discretion of AST-1."

[Bob Niland]

re: “There’s room for 20 space companies to take people up there,” Branson told CNBC.

I can't be the first to point out that if Musk reaches his goals, the market for suborbital space tourism (SuST), and much orbital, likely evaporates the same day the first scheduled passenger P2P Starship departs, these flights being fractional-orbital. Cultural, philosophical, regulatory and economic consideration could stall either, sooner, of course, even with a flawless safety record.

In the meantime, SuST (and such orbital rides as are offered) have contributions to make (and are already making). They are going to iron out:
• passenger flight insurance
• passenger screening
• passenger training (if any)
• passenger garb
• passenger PPE
• in-flight cabin movement policies
• in-flight 0G SAS events, urp
• in flight emergency procedures

SAS is space adaptation syndrome. Perhaps Spacely Spacelines can partially pre-screen for that by ferrying the pax out to the platforms on small Zodiacs.

[laszlo]

SAS is space adaptation syndrome. Perhaps Spacely Spacelines can partially pre-screen for that by ferrying the pax out to the platforms on small Zodiacs.

I can tell you from personal experience that zero-gee feels nothing at all like anything water-related, whether it's a ride across choppy waters in small boats or even underwater neutral buoyancy. The Zodiac ride hits your inner ear with continuously shifting acceleration changes while zero-gee is a constant lack of acceleration. In an underwater neutral buoyancy situation there is still a very definite up and down. While you are technically weightless, your insides aren't. You can tell if your head is pointed toward the bottom of the pool because the fluids in your inner ear pool downward. You can feel your internal organs shift position  as you change from head up to head down. Breathing feels different in different positions as the compression of your diaphragm changes. In zero-gee, on the other hand, it's all the same.

Whereas in 0g, unless you move something violently enough to generate centripetal accelerations everything just floats without any directional pressure (and associated sensations) at all. It's a unique situation that we don't have a chance to get used to here on the ground (or water).  That's probably why experienced pilots who do not get airsick and sailors who do not get seasick have all tossed their cookies in space.