SpaceX Starship : First Flight : Starbase, TX : 20 April 2023 - DISCUSSION

[Nascent Ascent]

How about launching a Crew Dragon just a bit later in order to shadow and photograph the partial orbit and re-entry

[Rocket Surgeon]

So this is interesting and seems to imply they're just gonna get rid of the SS and SH at the end of the flight.

Though I'll admit, I'm a little surprised they don't even seem interested in recovery... not even going to try and land the SH on a  drone ship? Maybe even if they did land it, it would be too much effort at this point to properly secure it and return it to port and they can learn enough from a 'disposable' flight. (I am hesitant to say 'expendable' as they are choosing to get rid of these stages)

[Negan]

Doesn't sound like there's going to be any booster hops. 

You got lucky on that one.  The argument was still wrong 2 or more years ago when SS was carbon composite.   

Musk announced they were going to stainless in January 2019. There is no argument anymore. I was right.

Super Heavy will hop because there's every reason for it to do so and no reasons not.  How much it hops is a separate question.  Arguing otherwise is silly.  Arguing otherwise without an argument is Trolling.  Be silly.  Don't be a Troll.

[AndrewRG10]

How about launching a Crew Dragon just a bit later in order to shadow and photograph the partial orbit and re-entry

Sounds very expensive. Cheaper to launch a Falcon 9 with literally nothing but a camera on the second stage. If they want a picture of Starship on orbit, I don't see why they couldn't have a camera which is ejected from starship and sends the images back as it floats away.

[StefsEngineering]

or you could time the launch in such a way that it is visible from the ISS. And ask nicely if they would please capture some video. Or starman from his nice tesla convertible

[wannamoonbase]

So this is interesting and seems to imply they're just gonna get rid of the SS and SH at the end of the flight.

Though I'll admit, I'm a little surprised they don't even seem interested in recovery... not even going to try and land the SH on a  drone ship? Maybe even if they did land it, it would be too much effort at this point to properly secure it and return it to port and they can learn enough from a 'disposable' flight. (I am hesitant to say 'expendable' as they are choosing to get rid of these stages)

You’re assuming the vehicles survive. 

There is very little experience with boosters this size (none) and

Starship entry decent and landing is not probable. 

They can gather almost all the data in disposable mode.  Once it survives then maybe the authorities will allow the 100 ton super sonic projectile to fly over land.

Also, looks like they are going to land 20 miles out.  Maybe ASOG will get an early assignment 🤪

[lrk]

Unless plans have changed yet again, SH boosters are designed to be caught and won't have legs.  Adding legs for a one-off downrange landing test seems like a waste of engineering effort. 

[AC in NC]

Doesn't sound like there's going to be any booster hops. 

You got lucky on that one.  The argument was still wrong 2 or more years ago when SS was carbon composite.   

Musk announced they were going to stainless in January 2019. There is no argument anymore. I was right.

Super Heavy will hop because there's every reason for it to do so and no reasons not.  How much it hops is a separate question.  Arguing otherwise is silly.  Arguing otherwise without an argument is Trolling.  Be silly.  Don't be a Troll.

Damn.  I misremembered the timing of that argument.

I can only say that I guess I (and others) couldn't conceptualize at the time how cheap stainless could be.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Doesn't sound like there's going to be any booster hops. 

You got lucky on that one.  The argument was still wrong 2 or more years ago when SS was carbon composite.   

Musk announced they were going to stainless in January 2019. There is no argument anymore. I was right.

Super Heavy will hop because there's every reason for it to do so and no reasons not.  How much it hops is a separate question.  Arguing otherwise is silly.  Arguing otherwise without an argument is Trolling.  Be silly.  Don't be a Troll.

Damn.  I misremembered the timing of that argument.

I can only say that I guess I (and others) couldn't conceptualize at the time how cheap stainless could be.

Don't feel to bad. Even as little as 5 months ago. The consensus was BN1 would do a hotfire test. BN2 would do a hop. And BN3 would go to orbit.

SpaceX decided to skip to 3. Go to ORBIT.

[Lars-J]

Unless plans have changed yet again, SH boosters are designed to be caught and won't have legs.  Adding legs for a one-off downrange landing test seems like a waste of engineering effort.

The only caveat that I would make is that the booster pieces at Boca Chica continue to be labeled with images that show booster legs.

So I would not rule it out. In fact I still believe there will be booster hops with legs until catching is deemed possible by the booster showing the detailed aiming capacity.

Whether those hops end at the landing pad next to the launch pad or an ocean platform is another matter. And such hops could happen both before and after this planned orbital flight.

[AC in NC]

Don't feel to bad. Even as little as 5 months ago. The consensus was BN1 would do a hotfire test. BN2 would do a hop. And BN3 would go to orbit.

SpaceX decided to skip to 3. Go to ORBIT.

I don't.  My recollection is the only argument he put forth was "but F9" which is an entirely different argument than "cheap".

F9 had customers paying the freight for landing tests.  SS was never going to have that out of the gate.  He still got lucky in that SS was so cheap that they could throw them (and Raptors) away on their own dime.  Negan (as I recall) didn't believe that (or at least ever put it out as an argument).

[chopsticks]

For the Superheavy landing outcome, I feel like there is insufficient evidence to say one way or the other. Is it possible that SH will have some sort of legs to land on a barge (maybe ASOG)? Maybe. Simulate a landing but ditch it in the water? Maybe. Build BN3 legless (caught version) and ditch it in the water? Maybe. Build SH legless and attempt a caught landing offshore? Almost certainly not.

Another thing I thought I would point out is to explore why SH is supposed to land where it is. There could be a few reasons for this. GSE: catching tower not ready or risk is too high, or: environmental concerns. If SH reenters offshore, the sonic boom should not be too noticeable from land, correct? The boom will be substantial, and I don't believe the environmental assessment allows yet for sonic booms at Boca Chica. Correct me if I'm wrong. Also, given that the landing location is not too far from land, the boostback burn can be attempted without actually landing back at the launch site. This is genius. By landing close(ish) to shore, it also put SH (or its remains) close to the SpX Texas team. I like this idea.

[Zed_Noir]

Reading Eric Berger's excellent book (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=52010.0), I note the early history of SpaceX used Kwajalein Atoll (and specifically, Omelek Island) during the Falcon 1 days. Does this and the associated ballistic missile tracking capability on the islands aid in following the first Starship orbit? Is this on the track from a Boca Chica launch to NW Kauai splashdown? (I'd love to simulate the flight path but don't have the skill or software!)

Yes that makes logical sense. Kwajalein Atoll seems to be about 100km from the track of the apparent SS "orbit". Perfect

How about the uninhabited Johnston Atoll that have a runway and a post super-fund area. Is it close to the flight  path?


Johnston Atoll is where they disposed the remaining stock of U.S. chemical agents/weapons by incineration in the late 1990s.

[Negan]

Don't feel to bad. Even as little as 5 months ago. The consensus was BN1 would do a hotfire test. BN2 would do a hop. And BN3 would go to orbit.

SpaceX decided to skip to 3. Go to ORBIT.

I don't.  My recollection is the only argument he put forth was "but F9" which is an entirely different argument than "cheap".

F9 had customers paying the freight for landing tests.  SS was never going to have that out of the gate.  He still got lucky in that SS was so cheap that they could throw them (and Raptors) away on their own dime.  Negan (as I recall) didn't believe that (or at least ever put it out as an argument).

I argued that getting to orbit ASAP was more important than doing hops with SH. Considering the HLS situation I could very well be correct.

Can't really comment on cost because I have no idea how the cost of expending a orbital booster compares to the cost of a successful SH hop (which I feel would be highly probable). I would imagine a SH hop would be considerably less.

Just for the record, I never doubted Musk's statements about stainless or Raptor cost.

Edit: Plus as other people pointed out we really don't know if the SH is going to be expendable yet.

Also: Also I have no way to gauge what SpaceX is willing to throw away to try to even come up with such an argument after all the time an effort they went through to recover fairings.

[Robotbeat]

So this is interesting and seems to imply they're just gonna get rid of the SS and SH at the end of the flight.

Though I'll admit, I'm a little surprised they don't even seem interested in recovery... not even going to try and land the SH on a  drone ship? Maybe even if they did land it, it would be too much effort at this point to properly secure it and return it to port and they can learn enough from a 'disposable' flight. (I am hesitant to say 'expendable' as they are choosing to get rid of these stages)

Wait, where did you get THAT idea for Super Heavy? The FCC document says it will land, and do a "touchdown"! (Unlike the "soft ocean landing" for Starship.)

Sounds like they'll try to recover the Super Heavy, probably on a droneship (Phobos?), for all those Raptors if nothing else. Starship might possibly be recovered (ala Electron for study) but not for reuse.

[RotoSequence]

Don't feel to bad. Even as little as 5 months ago. The consensus was BN1 would do a hotfire test. BN2 would do a hop. And BN3 would go to orbit.

SpaceX decided to skip to 3. Go to ORBIT.

I don't.  My recollection is the only argument he put forth was "but F9" which is an entirely different argument than "cheap".

F9 had customers paying the freight for landing tests.  SS was never going to have that out of the gate.  He still got lucky in that SS was so cheap that they could throw them (and Raptors) away on their own dime.  Negan (as I recall) didn't believe that (or at least ever put it out as an argument).

I argued that getting to orbit ASAP was more important than doing hops with SH. Considering the HLS situation I could very well be correct.

Can't really comment on cost because I have no idea how the cost of expending a orbital booster compares to the cost of a successful SH hop (which I feel would be highly probable). I would imagine a SH hop would be considerably less.

Just for the record, I never doubted Musk's statements about stainless or Raptor cost.

Edit: Plus as other people pointed out we really don't know if the SH is going to be expendable yet.

Also: Also I have know way to gauge what SpaceX is willing to throw away to try to even come up with such an argument after all the time an effort they went through to recover fairings.

SpaceX has not flown any Starship hardware more than once, notwithstanding Starhopper. I think they figure the trend is likely to continue as their highly immature designs are built, obsoleted before they fly, and dramatically improved with what they learn with each flight. Even if they did land the first Superheavy, it would never fly again. This is probably true of the next several Superheavies, as well.

[Negan]

I think they figure the trend is likely to continue as their highly immature designs are built, obsoleted before they fly, and dramatically improved with what they learn with each flight. Even if they did land the first Superheavy, it would never fly again. This is probably true of the next several Superheavies, as well.

So kind of mirroring F9 development.

[Robotbeat]

Don't feel to bad. Even as little as 5 months ago. The consensus was BN1 would do a hotfire test. BN2 would do a hop. And BN3 would go to orbit.

SpaceX decided to skip to 3. Go to ORBIT.

I don't.  My recollection is the only argument he put forth was "but F9" which is an entirely different argument than "cheap".

F9 had customers paying the freight for landing tests.  SS was never going to have that out of the gate.  He still got lucky in that SS was so cheap that they could throw them (and Raptors) away on their own dime.  Negan (as I recall) didn't believe that (or at least ever put it out as an argument).

I argued that getting to orbit ASAP was more important than doing hops with SH. Considering the HLS situation I could very well be correct.

Can't really comment on cost because I have no idea how the cost of expending a orbital booster compares to the cost of a successful SH hop (which I feel would be highly probable). I would imagine a SH hop would be considerably less.

Just for the record, I never doubted Musk's statements about stainless or Raptor cost.

Edit: Plus as other people pointed out we really don't know if the SH is going to be expendable yet.

Also: Also I have know way to gauge what SpaceX is willing to throw away to try to even come up with such an argument after all the time an effort they went through to recover fairings.

SpaceX has not flown any Starship hardware more than once, notwithstanding Starhopper. I think they figure the trend is likely to continue as their highly immature designs are built, obsoleted before they fly, and dramatically improved with what they learn with each flight. Even if they did land the first Superheavy, it would never fly again. This is probably true of the next several Superheavies, as well.

The difference with Super Heavy is there are a LOT of Raptors on there. Fine if they don't fly the booster again, but they'd probably like all those Raptors back!

[Surfdaddy]

So this is interesting and seems to imply they're just gonna get rid of the SS and SH at the end of the flight.

Though I'll admit, I'm a little surprised they don't even seem interested in recovery... not even going to try and land the SH on a  drone ship? Maybe even if they did land it, it would be too much effort at this point to properly secure it and return it to port and they can learn enough from a 'disposable' flight. (I am hesitant to say 'expendable' as they are choosing to get rid of these stages)

We saw F9 first stages crash onto the drone ship and cause some damage. Seems that the much higher mass SH booster would be a substantial risk to a drone ship. Not all that surprising that they would want at least one dress rehearsal landing on water before risking a ship.

[joek]

The difference with Super Heavy is there are a LOT of Raptors on there. Fine if they don't fly the booster again, but they'd probably like all those Raptors back!

But do they need all of them for this test? (Certainly a high fidelity test with everything all-up would be desirable.)