SpaceX Starship : First Flight : Starbase, TX : 20 April 2023 - DISCUSSION

[scr00chy]

Cross-post:

0421-EX-ST-2023  Starship Orbital Test Flight
Operation Start Date (NET) March 15

Is this just another extension of that FCC licence they've had for a few years now, or is this something else?

[realnouns]

Cross-post:

0421-EX-ST-2023  Starship Orbital Test Flight
Operation Start Date (NET) March 15

Is this just another extension of that FCC licence they've had for a few years now, or is this something else?

It seems more like fine tuning.  The superseded FCC app had an OSD of March 1st.  This updated app has the following new language, "adding an updated power level for two antennas at the Boca Chica TX site".  That and moving the OSD to March 15th are the only changes.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/joroulette/status/1633195304026624000

Elon Musk at a Morgan Stanley conference says again that Starship's first full-stack test launch from Texas will happen "hopefully in the next month or so, we'll have our first attempt." Adds "80 percent chance of reaching orbit this year"

[pb2000]

So translated from Elon time, to normal time, does that mean NET June?

[Robotbeat]

So translated from Elon time, to normal time, does that mean NET June?

We’re still at NET March. NET.

[pb2000]

So translated from Elon time, to normal time, does that mean NET June?

We’re still at NET March. NET.

"hopefully in the next month or so" implies that March is already out, even without taking into account the 'Elon Time' multiplier (which varies from 1.1x to infinity).

[eriblo]

So translated from Elon time, to normal time, does that mean NET June?

We’re still at NET March. NET.

"hopefully in the next month or so" implies that March is already out, even without taking into account the 'Elon Time' multiplier (which varies from 1.1x to infinity).

No, it implies uncertainty in the outcome with a March launch not yet being ruled out. He did not say "hopefully next month..." or "hopefully in a month...".

[pb2000]

No, it implies uncertainty in the outcome with a March launch not yet being ruled out. He did not say "hopefully next month..." or "hopefully in a month...".

English can be pretty ambiguous at times, but that phrasing generally means a minimum of 30 days.

[Ken the Bin]

No, it implies uncertainty in the outcome with a March launch not yet being ruled out. He did not say "hopefully next month..." or "hopefully in a month...".

English can be pretty ambiguous at times, but that phrasing generally means a minimum of 30 days.

Right, so Elon was effectively saying "hopefully in the next 30 days or so", which includes the rest of March.

[eeergo]

No, it implies uncertainty in the outcome with a March launch not yet being ruled out. He did not say "hopefully next month..." or "hopefully in a month...".

English can be pretty ambiguous at times, but that phrasing generally means a minimum of 30 days.

Right, so Elon was effectively saying "hopefully in the next 30 days or so", which includes the rest of March.

If the quote is accurate, saying "next month" on March 7th does not mean "NLT April 8th". It means the next month that goes after March, "hopefully", "or so". So NET April is pretty unambiguous taking the tweet at face value.

The need for a water deluge has been pretty evident for a long time now. While they may have data that encourages them one might not be needed, they have never fired 33 engines for an extended period of time at close to full thrust - not even close: closest has been around half of that, and heat fluxes/dissipation/plume collimation effects do not necessarily allow for a simple extrapolation from existing data. However, despite having been willfully pushed aside in certain circles, a water deluge right next to the protected terrain the environmental assessment does not allow construction on, necessarily implies runoff water flowing into it towards the greater area. This necessitates both permits and physical regulation of runoff contaminants, as well as possibly provisions against erosion on the built-up area in SpaceX's interest. This, and even minimal functional testing, evidently needs more than a week to complete - and can't be sidelined once work on it breaks ground. There are even pipes being delivered to the site! Furthermore, the water desalination plant that was the cause of most of the kerfuffle around the environmental assessment in the past (and with it, its power needs and associated impacts) is no longer in the cards, so water supply is also a focus point - depending on the deluge system's flow, extra storage might even need to be installed beyond what already exists around the propellant storage area.

Clinging against all evidence to a March 20th date that is clearly unfeasible from many fronts is quite an acute case of go-fever.

[Vultur]

It's a very vague phrase that I don't think much can be read into, except that Elon isn't certain/confident of March.

"In the next month" would mean *within* the next ~30 days (so definitely not ruling out March: "in *a* month" = 'a month from now' provably would) but "or so" makes it vague enough that precise parsing is likely not relevant.

IMO late March is still the 'plan of record' but there is doubt about meeting it (there is still no launch license...)

[alugobi]

The need for a water deluge has been pretty evident for a long time now. While they may have data that encourages them one might not be needed, they have never fired 33 engines for an extended period of time at close to full thrust - not even close: closest has been around half of that, and heat fluxes/dissipation/plume collimation effects do not necessarily allow for a simple extrapolation from existing data.

You'll get some pushback on that, but you know that.  (not from me)

However, it's clear that they're going to build a deluge system.  Why would they launch without one, when both Musk and Shotwell have said upfront that the big win for them is not destroying the pad? 

If what Musk just said is shorthand for "we're going to build the water system first", then it will be longer than a month.  If that's not the case, then we should quit trying to interpret these pronouncements, because most of the time they're not accurate and it just makes for a bunch of rhetorical wrestling over vague language.

[realnouns]

Could be a case of:  We're launching without deluge.  It won't destroy the launch site, like a RUD would.  If NASA wasn't also saying it, just Elon, I would be more skeptical.

And:  We're building deluge, because it will accelerate future turnaround times, so we don't need to make as many repairs.

....I'm currently reading Liftoff, and SpaceX has always moved with haste.  No reason both of the above can't be true.

[Robotbeat]

Could be a case of:  We're launching without deluge.  It won't destroy the launch site, like a RUD would.  If NASA wasn't also saying it, just Elon, I would be more skeptical.

And:  We're building deluge, because it will accelerate future turnaround times, so we don't need to make as many repairs.

....I'm currently reading Liftoff, and SpaceX has always moved with haste.  No reason both of the above can't be true.

100% this.

[AS_501]

Musk is setting low expectations for a successful SS/SH first launch:
https://www.independent.co.uk/space/spacex-starship-launch-date-elon-musk-b2297482.html
I'm glad he's stating this because he said something similar prior to the first FH launch in 2018. 

[Lee Jay]

It's a very vague phrase that I don't think much can be read into, except that Elon isn't certain/confident of March.

"In the next month" would mean *within* the next ~30 days (so definitely not ruling out March: "in *a* month" = 'a month from now' provably would) but "or so" makes it vague enough that precise parsing is likely not relevant.

IMO late March is still the 'plan of record' but there is doubt about meeting it (there is still no launch license...)

I think the quote means, "we're planning a first attempt in the next 30 days but don't know how it will go or how many attempts it will take to get to release of the hold down clamps."

[chopsticks]

I think the quote means, "we're planning a first attempt in the next 30 days but don't know how it will go or how many attempts it will take to get to release of the hold down clamps."

Hold down clamps? Huh?

[Vahe231991]

Musk is setting low expectations for a successful SS/SH first launch:
https://www.independent.co.uk/space/spacex-starship-launch-date-elon-musk-b2297482.html
I'm glad he's stating this because he said something similar prior to the first FH launch in 2018. 

Elon Musk raised the possibility that the first Falcon Heavy launch might end in failure, but that launch ended up exceeding Musk's expectations and lofting a car into orbit, leaving its launch site unscathed. We'll see how the liftoff sequence for the first Starship launch plays out.

[realnouns]

Cross-post:

0421-EX-ST-2023  Starship Orbital Test Flight
Operation Start Date (NET) March 15

This FCC App was "Denied/Dismissed"

This refers to application, File No. 0421-EX-ST-2023, for an experimental authorization.
You are advised that the Commission is unable to grant your application for the facilities requested. NTIA objected due to harmful interference anticipated to federal space systems as a result of the increased ERP.

[alugobi]

So what do they have to fix/correct/change?