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#460
by
JayWee
on 09 Jul, 2022 16:45
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I've tried to fiddle with Google Earth to get similar view as in the SuperHeavy catch profile and it looks like it's going to stage around 150km downrange. Isn't that very very early? A partial fuel load?
From the picture, I personally estimate a stagging downrange to be around 60 km and a maximum RTLS downrange less than 150 km. This is quite a bit more than for the Falcon 9, which usually has a RTLS stagging downrange around 40 km and a maximum RTLS downrange around 80 km (according to my own simulations and according to https://flightclub.io/ simulations).
Duh, thanks. For some reason I was thinking of the ASDS barge location when thinking about it. So it's not that different after all.
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#461
by
SPKirsch
on 20 Jul, 2022 17:44
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Cross-post:
SpaceX filed an extension for the Starship first launch (the previous permit expires Sept. 1).
1230-EX-ST-2022
New operation end date: March 1, 2023
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#462
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 15 Aug, 2022 19:47
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https://twitter.com/infographictony/status/1559175094907604994“We are so close” here’s my (unofficial) infographic detailing what to expect from the 1st flight of @SpaceX’s fully stacked #starship. Stay up-to-date with changes I may need to make as we approach the imminent launch. Thanks to @LunarCaveman for helping me fine tune the details
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#463
by
darkenfast
on 16 Aug, 2022 00:50
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Nice work, Tony! Spotted a minor typo: Paragraph labelled "Boostback burn" has the Booster peaking at over 20km. Should that be 200?
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#464
by
kdhilliard
on 16 Aug, 2022 01:00
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Nice work, Tony! Spotted a minor typo: Paragraph labelled "Boostback burn" has the Booster peaking at over 20km. Should that be 200?
20km is certainly too low, but 200km seems too high, at least compared to what we've seen with Falcon 9 boosters.
Have we ever seen any numbers on the subject from SpaceX?
We do have a 3D booster trajectory on pg. 3 of
this FCC exhibit. Perhaps it would be possible to recreate the Google Earth angle and magnification and extract something from that plot.
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#465
by
OneSpeed
on 16 Aug, 2022 05:04
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Nice work, Tony! Spotted a minor typo: Paragraph labelled "Boostback burn" has the Booster peaking at over 20km. Should that be 200?
20km is certainly too low, but 200km seems too high, at least compared to what we've seen with Falcon 9 boosters.
Have we ever seen any numbers on the subject from SpaceX?
We do have a 3D booster trajectory on pg. 3 of this FCC exhibit. Perhaps it would be possible to recreate the Google Earth angle and magnification and extract something from that plot.
It is possible.
A separate nit, the second engine start (SES) appears only to light the vacuum Raptors, which have no gimbal. This is unlikely from a control authority perspective, as well as increasing gravity losses.
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#466
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 22 Sep, 2022 17:45
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Latest on flight timing and likely booster, from Elon yesterday:
twitter.com/yasin_shafiei/status/1572562946387218438
Hi Elon. Can you please give us some updates about orbital flight date? I can’t wait to see this launch 😀
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1572563987258290177
Late next month maybe, but November seems highly likely. We will have two boosters & ships ready for orbital flight by then, with full stack production at roughly one every two months.
twitter.com/bnordhaug/status/1572564338577379328
So booster 7 will be first to fly? (hopefully)
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1572564908381999105
That’s the plan. We’re taking a little risk there, as engine isolation was done as retrofit, so not as good as on Booster 9.
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#467
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 31 Oct, 2022 14:28
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Crosspost, NASA’s latest view:
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1587100031999676416
Right now the schedule would lead to "an early December" launch of Starship and Super Heavy. NASA's Mark Kirasich said he does not believe SpaceX will attempt to recover the Super Heavy first stage on that test flight.
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#468
by
alugobi
on 31 Oct, 2022 15:13
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I think December is pretty ambitious.
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#469
by
ZachS09
on 31 Oct, 2022 15:21
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I think December is pretty ambitious.
Maybe launch it on the two-year anniversary of SN8?
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#470
by
Oersted
on 04 Nov, 2022 19:36
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Or on the anniversary of their first landed booster.... - I am pretty sure SpaceX thinks of December as a particularly good month for groundbreaking launches.
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#471
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 08 Dec, 2022 18:06
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twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1600906851943579649
Based on a couple of conversations, I think SpaceX has a reasonable chance of making Starship's orbital launch during the first quarter of 2023. No guarantees, and there still is a lot of work to do. But they're making progress.
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1600907257365106690One thing I would note: SpaceX has moved on the from the "cowboy" phase of development in South Texas, when there was a higher tolerance of risk and failure during Starship prototype testing. With the expensive launch tower, they taking more time to increase chances of success.
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#472
by
aero
on 09 Dec, 2022 00:27
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Well that and the simple fact that the upcoming orbital flight had better be a success. They are taking the extra time to assure themselves of probable success. The last little bits take time anyway.
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#473
by
DanClemmensen
on 09 Dec, 2022 00:36
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Well that and the simple fact that the upcoming orbital flight had better be a success. They are taking the extra time to assure themselves of probable success. The last little bits take time anyway.
I don't see that. I think they need a high probability of a non-destructive launch. A post-launch failure that does not damage the launch site would not be a big problem. It's still a problem, of course, because they only have 5 launches per year.
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#474
by
alugobi
on 09 Dec, 2022 00:50
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If they can clear the pad on that first launch, and get it out over the water, then I think they'll declare victory. Everything else will be gravy after that.
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#475
by
ZachS09
on 09 Dec, 2022 00:53
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If they can clear the pad on that first launch, and get it out over the water, then I think they'll declare victory. Everything else will be gravy after that.
But this an orbital test flight, not a pad clearance test flight. I can’t see orbit insertion being a bonus because that’s the primary mission goal.
However, I agree that the landing phases of both Super Heavy and Starship are bonuses.
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#476
by
Vahe231991
on 12 Dec, 2022 01:03
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From
Ars Technica:
Starship orbital launch will slip into 2023. SpaceX has not said anything official, but based on a couple of conversations, I think SpaceX has a reasonable chance of making Starship's orbital launch during the first quarter of 2023. There are no guarantees, and there still is a lot of work to do. But the company is making progress. I can say for certain that an orbital launch attempt this year is off the table.
Protect the tower, please ... Another thing I would note is that SpaceX has moved on from the "cowboy" phase of rocketry development in South Texas, when there was a higher tolerance of risk and failure during Starship prototype testing in 2021. This means the company is moving more slowly and deliberately. With the expensive launch tower, in particular, it is taking more time to increase its chances of success with the first launch of the Super Heavy booster and its Starship upper stage.
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#477
by
zubenelgenubi
on 15 Dec, 2022 02:25
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Cross-post:
latest NET date for Starship appears to be January 20.
2044-EX-ST-2022
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#478
by
FutureSpaceTourist
on 08 Jan, 2023 07:10
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#479
by
Vahe231991
on 15 Jan, 2023 23:46
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Cross-post:
latest NET date for Starship appears to be January 20.
2044-EX-ST-2022
January 20 is merely the start date of the requested period of operation, which according to the cited document ends July 20.