The Starship program doesn't have a history of changing flight plans once a given build series accomplishes its test objectives, so I'd be surprised if they started changing that now.
NET means NET. I think July is theoretically possible, but it'll more likely be later.
Quote from: Yggdrasill on 05/20/2021 07:50 amNET means NET. I think July is theoretically possible, but it'll more likely be later.Where did NET come from? I know one of Chris' articles was specific NLT July 1. Certainly it is likely to change, for a lot of reasons.https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/03/starship-sn11-spacex-orbital-flight-summer/
July 20th was the start date from the FAA doc but it's a window that lasts 6 months. I doubt it will fly in July - maybe end of the summer.https://fcc.report/ELS/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp-SpaceX/0748-EX-ST-2021Quote from: DigitalMan on 05/20/2021 08:21 amQuote from: Yggdrasill on 05/20/2021 07:50 amNET means NET. I think July is theoretically possible, but it'll more likely be later.Where did NET come from? I know one of Chris' articles was specific NLT July 1. Certainly it is likely to change, for a lot of reasons.https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/03/starship-sn11-spacex-orbital-flight-summer/
Quote from: kevinof on 05/20/2021 08:37 amJuly 20th was the start date from the FAA doc but it's a window that lasts 6 months. I doubt it will fly in July - maybe end of the summer.https://fcc.report/ELS/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp-SpaceX/0748-EX-ST-2021Quote from: DigitalMan on 05/20/2021 08:21 amQuote from: Yggdrasill on 05/20/2021 07:50 amNET means NET. I think July is theoretically possible, but it'll more likely be later.Where did NET come from? I know one of Chris' articles was specific NLT July 1. Certainly it is likely to change, for a lot of reasons.https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/03/starship-sn11-spacex-orbital-flight-summer/I thought the FCC doc said this:Operation Start Date: 06/20/2021Operation End Date: 12/20/2021
Do people really think that an orbital test flight in July is doable? The orbital launch site infrastructure is far from completion, yet alone tested and operational. Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"? The huge amount of work needed to be accomplished in just a few short weeks, assuming no weather or construction delays, makes a July orbital test flight in my mind highly unlikely. If it happened by the end of the year, I'd consider that an enormous achievement.
They still show legs on the diagrams taped to the new parts.SpaceX sunk a ton of engineering into fairing recovery even though they knew it was only temporary until Starship is online.I have a theory that Elon intentionally spouts out about their most Ioutlandish ideas and long-term proposals in order to make their near term stuff seem less plausible to their competitors, catching them off guard when they get steamrolled by a very real operational capability. He actually encourages the skepticism and the dismissivism to catch competitors off-guard.
...Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"?
The FAA approvals have gotten more difficult and more time consuming to procure. SpaceX is adjusting and putting its plans out to the FAA well in advance of when they are ready to fly so that final approval and final readiness converge.
They aren't procured. They are obtained. And SpaceX has nobody to blame but themselves.
The complexity of the permits are increasing, ....
Quote from: WindyCity on 05/20/2021 07:36 amDo people really think that an orbital test flight in July is doable? The orbital launch site infrastructure is far from completion, yet alone tested and operational. Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"? The huge amount of work needed to be accomplished in just a few short weeks, assuming no weather or construction delays, makes a July orbital test flight in my mind highly unlikely. If it happened by the end of the year, I'd consider that an enormous achievement.I largely agree that a July orbital attempt is very, very unlikely. We are all familiar with Elon time ... this is just the latest example. I define Elon time as predicting success twice as fast as reality -- but reaching success at a later time is almost assured as long as work continues.I don't expect a hop of BN3.The FAA approvals have gotten more difficult and more time consuming to procure. SpaceX is adjusting and putting its plans out to the FAA well in advance of when they are ready to fly so that final approval and final readiness converge.