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#260
by
Yggdrasill
on 20 May, 2021 07:30
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The Starship program doesn't have a history of changing flight plans once a given build series accomplishes its test objectives, so I'd be surprised if they started changing that now.
The previous test vehicles didn't have many options for fundamentally improving the outcome for SpaceX. SN5 and SN6 were only built to be able to do a short hop. SN8-SN11 and SN15 were only built to make higher altitude hops.
Also, we still don't know what SpaceX will do with SN15/SN16 now that SN15 has done a successful hop. It's entirely possible they change the flight plan for the next hop. However, the payoff for SpaceX would be significantly less for changing the flight plan for SN15/SN16 than it would be by changing the flight plan for the orbital flights. So, if they stick to the same flight plan for SN15/SN16 that doesn't mean they won't change the flight plan for the orbital flights.
Ideally, SpaceX will land both the SH and Starship at Boca Chica. This means they get experience landing the vehicles, and they get back the hardware for analysis or reflight. BN3/SN20 looks to be capable of this ideal outcome.
The reason why they don't plan on landing these vehicles at Boca Chica is probably because of the risk. But as they get more experience with these vehicles, risk goes down. As risk goes down, you can get approval for flights that are closer to the ideal outcome.
(I would think SpaceX actually could get approval to land the SH at Boca Chica already. But that they might not want to do that on the very first flight, with all the expensive infrastructure that is rapidly being built. If SH blows up on reentry, debris could go everywhere.)
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#261
by
WindyCity
on 20 May, 2021 07:36
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Do people really think that an orbital test flight in July is doable? The orbital launch site infrastructure is far from completion, yet alone tested and operational. Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"? The huge amount of work needed to be accomplished in just a few short weeks, assuming no weather or construction delays, makes a July orbital test flight in my mind highly unlikely. If it happened by the end of the year, I'd consider that an enormous achievement.
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#262
by
Yggdrasill
on 20 May, 2021 07:50
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NET means NET. I think July is theoretically possible, but it'll more likely be later.
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#263
by
DigitalMan
on 20 May, 2021 08:21
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#264
by
kevinof
on 20 May, 2021 08:37
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#265
by
DigitalMan
on 20 May, 2021 08:42
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#266
by
kevinof
on 20 May, 2021 08:43
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#267
by
StarshipTrooper
on 20 May, 2021 13:47
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Do people really think that an orbital test flight in July is doable? The orbital launch site infrastructure is far from completion, yet alone tested and operational. Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"? The huge amount of work needed to be accomplished in just a few short weeks, assuming no weather or construction delays, makes a July orbital test flight in my mind highly unlikely. If it happened by the end of the year, I'd consider that an enormous achievement.
It certainly does seem like the GSE is making slow progress. So far just 2 tanks have been mounted and none of the shells. Not all the bases have been formed and poured yet.
What do you think the minimal state of completion will the GSE need to be for an orbital launch? 4 tanks? 5 tanks?
Obviously they need a complete launch pad table. Probably the deluge system should be working.
Will the complete launch tower be needed to lift and mount the starship?
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#268
by
capoman
on 20 May, 2021 14:42
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They still show legs on the diagrams taped to the new parts.
SpaceX sunk a ton of engineering into fairing recovery even though they knew it was only temporary until Starship is online.
I have a theory that Elon intentionally spouts out about their most Ioutlandish ideas and long-term proposals in order to make their near term stuff seem less plausible to their competitors, catching them off guard when they get steamrolled by a very real operational capability. He actually encourages the skepticism and the dismissivism to catch competitors off-guard.
I don't think this is the case at all. Elon doesn't care about competition. He wants others to create cheap access to space also, as he think it's good for everyone to have that. Elon only wants cheap access to space to move us forward. He is only competing with himself and his own company.... eg Starship will compete (replace) F9 even though F9 FH is already beating other competition. Elon time is and always has been about motivating his teams to keep moving forward at lightning pace. Stretch goals.
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#269
by
capoman
on 20 May, 2021 14:49
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Do people really think that an orbital test flight in July is doable? The orbital launch site infrastructure is far from completion, yet alone tested and operational. Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"? The huge amount of work needed to be accomplished in just a few short weeks, assuming no weather or construction delays, makes a July orbital test flight in my mind highly unlikely. If it happened by the end of the year, I'd consider that an enormous achievement.
Maybe time for another poll. Personally, I think July is a stretch, but I think there's a pretty good chance it will fly within the six month window. There's a lot of pieces that have to fall into place, including FAA approval, which might be the biggest hurdle of them all.
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#270
by
tssp_art
on 20 May, 2021 15:01
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...Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"?
I agree that BN3 will need a static fire (at least one), but I don't think a "hop" for BN3 is necessary or likely. Its actual mission flight plan is "just" an extended "hop", not much different from the Falcon 9 booster - and a SH landing is not necessary for getting SS to orbit. Payloads can begin flying even if they are still losing SH boosters and SS second stages - just like every other launcher.
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#271
by
freddo411
on 20 May, 2021 16:23
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Do people really think that an orbital test flight in July is doable? The orbital launch site infrastructure is far from completion, yet alone tested and operational. Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"? The huge amount of work needed to be accomplished in just a few short weeks, assuming no weather or construction delays, makes a July orbital test flight in my mind highly unlikely. If it happened by the end of the year, I'd consider that an enormous achievement.
I largely agree that a July orbital attempt is very, very unlikely. We are all familiar with Elon time ... this is just the latest example. I define Elon time as predicting success twice as fast as reality -- but reaching success at a later time is almost assured as long as work continues.
I don't expect a hop of BN3.
The FAA approvals have gotten more difficult and more time consuming to procure. SpaceX is adjusting and putting its plans out to the FAA well in advance of when they are ready to fly so that final approval and final readiness converge.
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#272
by
Jim
on 20 May, 2021 17:00
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The FAA approvals have gotten more difficult and more time consuming to procure. SpaceX is adjusting and putting its plans out to the FAA well in advance of when they are ready to fly so that final approval and final readiness converge.
They aren't procured. They are obtained. And SpaceX has nobody to blame but themselves.
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#273
by
VaBlue
on 20 May, 2021 17:08
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They aren't procured. They are obtained. And SpaceX has nobody to blame but themselves.
Who are they 'blaming' for anything? The complexity of the permits are increasing, but I haven't heard that SX is complaining about it? Who is complaining?
(Well, other than us - the people that want them flying once/week. Slackers need to get hot!)
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#274
by
Jim
on 20 May, 2021 17:10
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The complexity of the permits are increasing, ....
Due to SpaceX.
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#275
by
Alberto-Girardi
on 20 May, 2021 19:12
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Do people really think that an orbital test flight in July is doable? The orbital launch site infrastructure is far from completion, yet alone tested and operational. Assuming that the GSE is ready in July, would BN3 be fully ready, meaning that its raptors have been tested in static fires successfully and the vehicle flown on a lower altitude "hop"? The huge amount of work needed to be accomplished in just a few short weeks, assuming no weather or construction delays, makes a July orbital test flight in my mind highly unlikely. If it happened by the end of the year, I'd consider that an enormous achievement.
I largely agree that a July orbital attempt is very, very unlikely. We are all familiar with Elon time ... this is just the latest example. I define Elon time as predicting success twice as fast as reality -- but reaching success at a later time is almost assured as long as work continues.
I don't expect a hop of BN3.
The FAA approvals have gotten more difficult and more time consuming to procure. SpaceX is adjusting and putting its plans out to the FAA well in advance of when they are ready to fly so that final approval and final readiness converge.
I too agree that a test in July is unlickely, but I think that late August is more reasonable. Anyways I hope before the school restart (here in Italy around the 10th of September).
Another reason because I don't expect bn3 doing an hop is because they will need legs, and more than for SS IIUC, because of the higher mass. But they have the same diameter, hence circonference, to place them on, which limits the number of legs. This isn't an impossible problem, but they will probably need redesigned lags, and this could take time.
Are the GSE tank shells needed for a test flight?
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#276
by
GalacticIntruder
on 20 May, 2021 19:20
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I give SpaceX 6 weeks of ground tests, bugs, cryo proof tests, static fires for BN3 when it is on the Pad. So maybe 12 weeks from now for first flight attempt.
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#277
by
Jakusb
on 20 May, 2021 20:08
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Moving fast into the future with brand new fast iterative updates is not part of this ‘challenge’?
The FAA has to advance to cope with this new increase requirement.
SpaceX is new, young and eagerly pushing many boundaries, that would likely not have moved at all if not done in this fashion.
Friction and some political statements should be taken with some grain of salt. Functional ‘angry/annoyed’ should not be mistaken for emotional uncontrolled harsh statements.
I think there is no blame to go around. It all is just a proces that needs to happen one way or another.
It will not happen without it or take decades.
All will be better after they resolved this into newer more agile ways of working. They will find each other halfway as with the amazing improvement like the AFTS did.
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#278
by
jrhan48
on 20 May, 2021 20:11
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I think July cannot happen, but this fall may.
The longest pole in the tent is likely to be FAA approval, but not for any technical or safety reason related to the planned orbital flight, rather the history of the Boca site, and its existing environmental approvals.
The original EIS was for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, at a launch cadence of once per month. The FAA agreed that the original EIS still covered sub-orbital flights of the Starship portion of the system NOT the SuperHeavy, and not orbital. For that, an environmental assessment is underway to determine if a modification to the EIS can be made without requiring a whole new EIS.
A whole new EIS would be a minimum delay of at least ~ 9 months and the worst case can take over 3 years (unlikely because they did the original EIS so have a starting point and a lot of information). This is all happening in response to lawsuits by the usual crowd who want to prevent anything related to space ever, or rent-seekers, hoping any settlement would pay them for their trouble.
Some justifiable resistance is also from a few locals who wich SpaceX never happened anywhere near their community, which is understandable.
In any case, it is the Environmental approvals that pose the longest pole in the tent for using Boca Chica as a space-port for the Starship system. None of these delays are due to anything SpaceX did or didn't do or to semi-expected prototype explosions. They are due to difficulty in the US of doing anything new and complexities of environmental laws and regulations.
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#279
by
Tangilinear Interjar
on 20 May, 2021 21:27
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I think the actual critical path is the Tank Farm and all GSE. It must essentially be compete in order for the Supper Heavy to be processed. Perhaps a couple of tanks are not fully operational but they will be fully plumed, integrated and the cryo shells installed.
You have to look at the whole ground facility as a singular complex machine, testing, verifying, validating (and troubleshooting, modifying, fixing) are going to have to happen before even a WDR on the booster can happen. Starting up that facility will be one hell of a job and I soooo wish I could be part of it!