What Elon did was very different. He didn’t just throw some play money in. He put in his heart, his soul and his mind.Elon Musk founded SpaceX under the belief that "a future where humanity is out exploring the stars is fundamentally more exciting than one where we are not." The company was founded in 2002, with the ultimate goal of enabling human life on Mars. Musk envisions a future where humans live in a spacefaring civilization, frequent voyages from Earth to Mars and vice-versa.0:00 Introduction0:41 SpaceX presentation1:58 How SpaceX was founded3:03 SpaceX history and difficulties 2002- 20087:19 Falcon 9 Rocket development and first stage landing of an orbital rocket9:16 Falcon Heavy launch 11:09 Commercial crew program presentation11:52 Demonstration 1 mission (DM1) uncrewed mission20:13 In-flight abort test uncrewed mission25:11 Demonstration 2 mission (DM2) crewed mission31:14 Outro The Rise of SpaceX Elon Musk's Engineering Masterpiece
The experiences of US launch entrepreneurs George Koopman and Andrew Beal really underline that SpaceX’s success was far from certain and, in fact, highly improbable.
Gave my lecture on rocket engine cycles today. I love starting with: “A brash young millionaire with a penchant for sports cars decides to overturn the space launch industry by developing a FedEx-like, low-cost and reliable space launch service. Who am I talking about?”The class answers: “Elon!”“Wrong! George Koopman.”[blank stares]https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/american-rocket-company-engineer-george-koopman-in-rocket-news-photo/685183913Later in the same lecture: “Finally, someone with deep pockets enters the scene: A highly successful investor and self-taught mathematical genius decides to build a line of giant rockets in Texas to launch their own fleet of communication satellites. Who am I talking about?”The class answers: “Elon!”“Wrong! Andrew Beal.”[more blank stares]https://newspaceglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/files/images/volume_24/andrew-beal.jpgWhat I really enjoyed about @SciGuySpace's “Liftoff" and @Lori_Garver's “Escaping Gravity” is their coverage of this largely forgotten history. It isn’t that Space-X did something that no one had tried, it is that they kept trying and succeeded where so many others had failed……and to some extend succeeded by using the DNA from those earlier efforts, which both Berger and Garver acknowledge.
In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.
Quote from: M.E.T. on 02/16/2023 06:30 amIn his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.Dunning–Kruger
Quote from: laszlo on 02/16/2023 11:31 amQuote from: M.E.T. on 02/16/2023 06:30 amIn his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.Dunning–KrugerSure, dude. To quote:“ The Dunning–Kruger effect is usually explained in terms of metacognitive abilities. This approach is based on the idea that poor performers have not yet acquired the ability to distinguish between good and bad performances. They tend to overrate themselves because they do not see the qualitative difference between their performances and the performances of others.”Yep. That sounds about right for the guy who built SpaceX and Tesla on a platform of unmatched innovation and a famously extreme standard for performance and ability🙄.
[...]like anyone at that level of intellectual achievement, especially in technical things, he has problems in dealing with non-technical issues.
Quote from: M.E.T. on 02/16/2023 12:25 pmQuote from: laszlo on 02/16/2023 11:31 amQuote from: M.E.T. on 02/16/2023 06:30 amIn his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.Dunning–KrugerSure, dude. To quote:“ The Dunning–Kruger effect is usually explained in terms of metacognitive abilities. This approach is based on the idea that poor performers have not yet acquired the ability to distinguish between good and bad performances. They tend to overrate themselves because they do not see the qualitative difference between their performances and the performances of others.”Yep. That sounds about right for the guy who built SpaceX and Tesla on a platform of unmatched innovation and a famously extreme standard for performance and ability🙄.Maybe, just maybe, the guy has a good/outstanding ability to focus on enterprises that he manages by force of will and promotion to attract the best talents to - who then proceed to provide most/some/all of the tangible results you mention. That doesn't preclude he just maybe might not hold all that knowledge about "space technology" himself, just as he probably doesn't hold the title of "knowing the most about automotive technology on Earth" in spite of having been involved with it for longer.There's another person that boldly and publicly proclaims to know more than anybody on Earth about a few things he's alledgedly been involved with, although perhaps in a less literal way than Musk intended above:https://www.axios.com/2019/01/05/everything-trump-says-he-knows-more-about-than-anybodyOn the other hand, certain nobodies like Socrates or Einstein, to name a few, have a somewhat more humble approach to knowledge.Quote from: rpapo on 02/16/2023 01:06 pm[...]like anyone at that level of intellectual achievement, especially in technical things, he has problems in dealing with non-technical issues.Well, and arguably technical too (insert here example of many misstatements, from covid to actual rocket science concepts)
Problem is Musk was deeply involved in developing Falcon 9 and Merlin. Musk was also deeply involved in development of Raptor, Raptor 2 as well as Superheavy and Starship. From what I understand, he actually designed the Raptor. He also listens to his workers and then makes a decision. Give him credit where credit is due. The man has worked 16 hours a day and lived in a 20' x 20' or 6m x 6m house at Boca Chica during the development stage of Raptor, Starship and Superheavy. He has slept on the production floor of Tesla on a cot, while getting Tesla production up and running. No one works as hard as he does on something he is passionate about. I know many of you here despise Musk, but you can't ignore what he has and is accomplishing. Where would we be today in space related activities if it wasn't for Musk? Also, no one would be mass producing electric cars.
In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.I think that is a justifiable statement.
Quote from: spacenut on 02/16/2023 02:14 pmProblem is Musk was deeply involved in developing Falcon 9 and Merlin. Musk was also deeply involved in development of Raptor, Raptor 2 as well as Superheavy and Starship. From what I understand, he actually designed the Raptor. He also listens to his workers and then makes a decision. Give him credit where credit is due. The man has worked 16 hours a day and lived in a 20' x 20' or 6m x 6m house at Boca Chica during the development stage of Raptor, Starship and Superheavy. He has slept on the production floor of Tesla on a cot, while getting Tesla production up and running. No one works as hard as he does on something he is passionate about. I know many of you here despise Musk, but you can't ignore what he has and is accomplishing. Where would we be today in space related activities if it wasn't for Musk? Also, no one would be mass producing electric cars. I don't despise him and I do give him credit, but a lot of other people deserve credit that he seems to be grabbing for himself. As a point of fact, the electric car, FFSC rocket engine and mostly reusable rocket all existed either before he was born or reached puberty. What he did was improve and market them more successfully than his predecessors. As far as "No one works as hard as he does on something he is passionate about.", well that's just utter bilge. Everyone who is that passionate about something works just as hard or harder. Look at single parents working 3 jobs to feed their kids, soldiers on deployment protecting their nation, doctors in ERs trying to keep people alive during a pandemic. The list is endless. Musk's passion just happened to be Mars and electric cars.BTW, the definition of Dunning-Kruger I was going with was the one from Psychology Today - "The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area." which is totally consistent with "...he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time."
I prefer to think of the team at SpaceX rather than focus on Musk. They have built up a hell of a team with huge domain knowledge and a can do attitude. Musk may have been the initiator and catalyst but it’s the team that’s pushing forward now.
Quote from: laszlo on 02/16/2023 11:31 amQuote from: M.E.T. on 02/16/2023 06:30 amIn his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.Dunning–KrugerWho knows more about current space technology than the chief engineer of SpaceX? Give an example. (Note we aren’t talking people who are smarter or better technically skilled… there are lots of people with higher IQ than Elon. This is about knowledge of current space tech.)
He sounds knowledgable because like EVERY CEO, he has people to coach him on what to say.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/16/2023 03:46 pmQuote from: laszlo on 02/16/2023 11:31 amQuote from: M.E.T. on 02/16/2023 06:30 amIn his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.Dunning–KrugerWho knows more about current space technology than the chief engineer of SpaceX? Give an example. (Note we aren’t talking people who are smarter or better technically skilled… there are lots of people with higher IQ than Elon. This is about knowledge of current space tech.)I'm gonna go with the legion of actual engineers who design and run the stuff. Not the CEO who has spent the last 5 months tanking twitter, and somehow also runs Tesla too? The very idea that he can waltz into a meating and know what it took other 10-20 years of study and experience to learn is ludicrous. Don't forget, "cheif engineer" is a bs title given to placate the guy who fires people when they disagree with him (well documented, it happened again just last week). Show me his phd in:1. metalurgy2. orbital mechanics3. electrical engineering4. mechanical engineering5. Aerospace engineeringOr his lifetime of practice using these skills and learning. He has none of these, because he doesn't NEED them (and its also not possible). His job is to direct the company. He sounds knowledgable because like EVERY CEO, he has people to coach him on what to say. This is an open secret in business, lots of people do it.
Where would we be today in space related activities if it wasn't for Musk? Also, no one would be mass producing electric cars.
Both Tory and Peter are aerospace engineers who have actually physically built rockets and also managed the development of them. Between Tory's LM and ULA careers would have very good knowledge of space systems a lot of which are highly classified.
Quote from: spacenut on 02/16/2023 02:14 pmWhere would we be today in space related activities if it wasn't for Musk? Also, no one would be mass producing electric cars. Electric car industry was going to happen with or without Tesla but it has help shorten timeline. Nissan Leaf has been production since 2010 well before Tesla S and was lot more affordable.
I think you are probably misunderstanding what makes Elon Musk unique (and frustrating). He dives into the detail on all important decisions, and he is a very hands-on chief engineer. He is not like "every CEO", and has demonstrated that more times than I could list. He is an engineer first, and a CEO second.And let's not get into whether you need a PhD in something to be an expert. Academic qualifications are one way to demonstrate deep knowledge, but by no means the only one. And he does have a lifetime (at least career-wise) of learning and practice, of course.
I think you are probably misunderstanding what makes Elon Musk unique (and frustrating). He dives into the detail on all important decisions, and he is a very hands-on chief engineer. He is not like "every CEO", and has demonstrated that more times than I could list. He is an engineer first, and a CEO second.
The interesting thing is that Blue Origin was pursuing VTVL before SpaceX was, and SpaceX was pursuing parachutes, still. But Elon was willing to change his mind when he saw a much better approach succeeding (by Masten Space Systems) while parachutes were failing for Falcon 1/9. Blue probably would’ve executed faster if Bezos were more intimately involved from the early days.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 02/17/2023 07:54 pmThe interesting thing is that Blue Origin was pursuing VTVL before SpaceX was, and SpaceX was pursuing parachutes, still. But Elon was willing to change his mind when he saw a much better approach succeeding (by Masten Space Systems) while parachutes were failing for Falcon 1/9. Blue probably would’ve executed faster if Bezos were more intimately involved from the early days.Blue Origin with Bezos at the helm
Quote from: steveleach on 02/17/2023 02:45 pmI think you are probably misunderstanding what makes Elon Musk unique (and frustrating). He dives into the detail on all important decisions, and he is a very hands-on chief engineer. He is not like "every CEO", and has demonstrated that more times than I could list. He is an engineer first, and a CEO second.This type of CEO is extremely rare but Elon is not unique. The CEO of my last employer before retirement was one of the first dozen employees of the company (Now >$1B/yr and hundreds of employees around the world) and the design engineer of the first hit product that put the company on the map and made lots of money. He has been management/CEO for more than two decades but is intimately involved in knowing what is going on in design development and debugging. He will often show in the lab and make very useful suggestions when the designers get stuck in debugging or finding work arounds. He occasionally imposed specific odd little choices/features in early new product architectural design that turn out later to be bacon savers. When he asked you something about what you're working on, even though you were the authority on it, you would never even consider trying BS or deflection away from issues, the guy would see through to the heart of the matter anyway. You would never want to anyway, he is still one of us. Funny thing he is actually a very good CEO too.
Quote from: greybeardengineer on 02/17/2023 11:00 pmQuote from: steveleach on 02/17/2023 02:45 pmI think you are probably misunderstanding what makes Elon Musk unique (and frustrating). He dives into the detail on all important decisions, and he is a very hands-on chief engineer. He is not like "every CEO", and has demonstrated that more times than I could list. He is an engineer first, and a CEO second.This type of CEO is extremely rare but Elon is not unique. The CEO of my last employer before retirement was one of the first dozen employees of the company (Now >$1B/yr and hundreds of employees around the world) and the design engineer of the first hit product that put the company on the map and made lots of money. He has been management/CEO for more than two decades but is intimately involved in knowing what is going on in design development and debugging. He will often show in the lab and make very useful suggestions when the designers get stuck in debugging or finding work arounds. He occasionally imposed specific odd little choices/features in early new product architectural design that turn out later to be bacon savers. When he asked you something about what you're working on, even though you were the authority on it, you would never even consider trying BS or deflection away from issues, the guy would see through to the heart of the matter anyway. You would never want to anyway, he is still one of us. Funny thing he is actually a very good CEO too.One partner in my company was money man, start talking about technical and his eyes glazed over and left. Other partner was engineer, start talking technical and engineering stories would come out, had plenty of time for him. Unlike first who'd throw you under bus if there was money to be made.
Quote from: TrevorMonty on 02/18/2023 02:01 amQuote from: greybeardengineer on 02/17/2023 11:00 pmQuote from: steveleach on 02/17/2023 02:45 pmI think you are probably misunderstanding what makes Elon Musk unique (and frustrating). He dives into the detail on all important decisions, and he is a very hands-on chief engineer. He is not like "every CEO", and has demonstrated that more times than I could list. He is an engineer first, and a CEO second.This type of CEO is extremely rare but Elon is not unique. The CEO of my last employer before retirement was one of the first dozen employees of the company (Now >$1B/yr and hundreds of employees around the world) and the design engineer of the first hit product that put the company on the map and made lots of money. He has been management/CEO for more than two decades but is intimately involved in knowing what is going on in design development and debugging. He will often show in the lab and make very useful suggestions when the designers get stuck in debugging or finding work arounds. He occasionally imposed specific odd little choices/features in early new product architectural design that turn out later to be bacon savers. When he asked you something about what you're working on, even though you were the authority on it, you would never even consider trying BS or deflection away from issues, the guy would see through to the heart of the matter anyway. You would never want to anyway, he is still one of us. Funny thing he is actually a very good CEO too.One partner in my company was money man, start talking about technical and his eyes glazed over and left. Other partner was engineer, start talking technical and engineering stories would come out, had plenty of time for him. Unlike first who'd throw you under bus if there was money to be made.But did the engineering guy understand the financial implications of his technical ideas? Surely a CEO that is a master of both fields is the Holy Grail. Which brings us nicely back to the person who is the topic of discussion.
Quote from: deadman1204 on 02/17/2023 01:57 pmQuote from: Robotbeat on 02/16/2023 03:46 pmQuote from: laszlo on 02/16/2023 11:31 amQuote from: M.E.T. on 02/16/2023 06:30 amIn his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.Dunning–KrugerWho knows more about current space technology than the chief engineer of SpaceX? Give an example. (Note we aren’t talking people who are smarter or better technically skilled… there are lots of people with higher IQ than Elon. This is about knowledge of current space tech.)I'm gonna go with the legion of actual engineers who design and run the stuff. Not the CEO who has spent the last 5 months tanking twitter, and somehow also runs Tesla too? The very idea that he can waltz into a meating and know what it took other 10-20 years of study and experience to learn is ludicrous. Don't forget, "cheif engineer" is a bs title given to placate the guy who fires people when they disagree with him (well documented, it happened again just last week). Show me his phd in:1. metalurgy2. orbital mechanics3. electrical engineering4. mechanical engineering5. Aerospace engineeringOr his lifetime of practice using these skills and learning. He has none of these, because he doesn't NEED them (and its also not possible). His job is to direct the company. He sounds knowledgable because like EVERY CEO, he has people to coach him on what to say. This is an open secret in business, lots of people do it.I think you are probably misunderstanding what makes Elon Musk unique (and frustrating). He dives into the detail on all important decisions, and he is a very hands-on chief engineer. He is not like "every CEO", and has demonstrated that more times than I could list. He is an engineer first, and a CEO second.And let's not get into whether you need a PhD in something to be an expert. Academic qualifications are one way to demonstrate deep knowledge, but by no means the only one. And he does have a lifetime (at least career-wise) of learning and practice, of course.