The Rise of SpaceX Elon Musk's Engineering Masterpiece

[catdlr]

The Rise of SpaceX Elon Musk's Engineering Masterpiece[/b


ritm 1
Posted:  Oct 2020

What Elon did was very different. He didn’t just throw some play money in. He put in his heart, his soul and his mind.
Elon Musk founded SpaceX under the belief that "a future where humanity is out exploring the stars is fundamentally more exciting than one where we are not." The company was founded in 2002, with the ultimate goal of enabling human life on Mars. Musk envisions a future where humans live in a spacefaring civilization, frequent voyages from Earth to Mars and vice-versa.
0:00​ Introduction
0:41​ SpaceX presentation
1:58​ How SpaceX was founded
3:03​ SpaceX history and difficulties 2002- 2008
7:19​ Falcon 9 Rocket development and first stage landing of an orbital rocket
9:16​ Falcon Heavy launch
11:09​ Commercial crew program presentation
11:52​ Demonstration 1 mission (DM1) uncrewed mission
20:13​ In-flight abort test uncrewed mission
25:11​ Demonstration 2 mission (DM2) crewed mission
31:14​ Outro The Rise of SpaceX Elon Musk's Engineering Masterpiece

[daver]

I really enjoyed this video.   Watched most of it happen here, live on NSF.
I'm ready for the Starship, Moon, and Mars chapters. 

[su27k]

https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1625172068558946305

The experiences of US launch entrepreneurs George Koopman and Andrew Beal really underline that SpaceX’s success was far from certain and, in fact, highly improbable.

Gave my lecture on rocket engine cycles today. I love starting with: “A brash young millionaire with a penchant for sports cars decides to overturn the space launch industry by developing a FedEx-like, low-cost and reliable space launch service. Who am I talking about?”


The class answers: “Elon!”
“Wrong! George Koopman.”
[blank stares]
https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/american-rocket-company-engineer-george-koopman-in-rocket-news-photo/685183913


Later in the same lecture: “Finally, someone with deep pockets enters the scene: A highly successful investor and self-taught mathematical genius decides to build a line of giant rockets in Texas to launch their own fleet of communication satellites. Who am I talking about?”


The class answers: “Elon!”
“Wrong! Andrew Beal.”
[more blank stares]
https://newspaceglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/files/images/volume_24/andrew-beal.jpg


What I really enjoyed about @SciGuySpace's “Liftoff" and @Lori_Garver's “Escaping Gravity” is their coverage of this largely forgotten history. It isn’t that Space-X did something that no one had tried, it is that they kept trying and succeeded where so many others had failed…


…and to some extend succeeded by using the DNA from those earlier efforts, which both Berger and Garver acknowledge.

[M.E.T.]

In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.

I think that is a justifiable statement.

[laszlo]

In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.

Dunning–Kruger

[M.E.T.]

In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.

Dunning–Kruger

Sure, dude.

To quote:

“ The Dunning–Kruger effect is usually explained in terms of metacognitive abilities. This approach is based on the idea that poor performers have not yet acquired the ability to distinguish between good and bad performances. They tend to overrate themselves because they do not see the qualitative difference between their performances and the performances of others.”

Yep. That sounds about right for the guy who built SpaceX and Tesla on a platform of unmatched innovation and a famously extreme standard for performance and ability🙄.

[rpapo]

In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.

Dunning–Kruger

Sure, dude.

To quote:

“ The Dunning–Kruger effect is usually explained in terms of metacognitive abilities. This approach is based on the idea that poor performers have not yet acquired the ability to distinguish between good and bad performances. They tend to overrate themselves because they do not see the qualitative difference between their performances and the performances of others.”

Yep. That sounds about right for the guy who built SpaceX and Tesla on a platform of unmatched innovation and a famously extreme standard for performance and ability🙄.

There may be bit of that going on here, but on a different scale from us more-or-less normal people.  Whether or not he really knows more about space technology than anyone else on the planet at this point in time, he certainly stands way up there.  But just like anyone at that level of intellectual achievement, especially in technical things, he has problems in dealing with non-technical issues.  Something he has freely admitted (reference the Saturday Night Live episode).

[eeergo]

In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.

Dunning–Kruger

Sure, dude.

To quote:

“ The Dunning–Kruger effect is usually explained in terms of metacognitive abilities. This approach is based on the idea that poor performers have not yet acquired the ability to distinguish between good and bad performances. They tend to overrate themselves because they do not see the qualitative difference between their performances and the performances of others.”

Yep. That sounds about right for the guy who built SpaceX and Tesla on a platform of unmatched innovation and a famously extreme standard for performance and ability🙄.

Maybe, just maybe, the guy has a good/outstanding ability to focus on enterprises that he manages by force of will and promotion to attract the best talents to - who then proceed to provide most/some/all of the tangible results you mention. That doesn't preclude he just maybe might not hold all that knowledge about "space technology" himself, just as he probably doesn't hold the title of "knowing the most about automotive technology on Earth" in spite of having been involved with it for longer.

There's another person that boldly and publicly proclaims to know more than anybody on Earth about a few things he's alledgedly been involved with, although perhaps in a less literal way than Musk intended above:

https://www.axios.com/2019/01/05/everything-trump-says-he-knows-more-about-than-anybody

On the other hand, certain nobodies like Socrates or Einstein, to name a few, have a somewhat more humble approach to knowledge.

[...]like anyone at that level of intellectual achievement, especially in technical things, he has problems in dealing with non-technical issues.

Well, and arguably technical too (insert here example of many misstatements, from covid to actual rocket science concepts)

[M.E.T.]

In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.

Dunning–Kruger

Sure, dude.

To quote:

“ The Dunning–Kruger effect is usually explained in terms of metacognitive abilities. This approach is based on the idea that poor performers have not yet acquired the ability to distinguish between good and bad performances. They tend to overrate themselves because they do not see the qualitative difference between their performances and the performances of others.”

Yep. That sounds about right for the guy who built SpaceX and Tesla on a platform of unmatched innovation and a famously extreme standard for performance and ability🙄.

Maybe, just maybe, the guy has a good/outstanding ability to focus on enterprises that he manages by force of will and promotion to attract the best talents to - who then proceed to provide most/some/all of the tangible results you mention. That doesn't preclude he just maybe might not hold all that knowledge about "space technology" himself, just as he probably doesn't hold the title of "knowing the most about automotive technology on Earth" in spite of having been involved with it for longer.

There's another person that boldly and publicly proclaims to know more than anybody on Earth about a few things he's alledgedly been involved with, although perhaps in a less literal way than Musk intended above:

https://www.axios.com/2019/01/05/everything-trump-says-he-knows-more-about-than-anybody

On the other hand, certain nobodies like Socrates or Einstein, to name a few, have a somewhat more humble approach to knowledge.

[...]like anyone at that level of intellectual achievement, especially in technical things, he has problems in dealing with non-technical issues.

Well, and arguably technical too (insert here example of many misstatements, from covid to actual rocket science concepts)

Not going to bother with a response.

[deadman1204]

title makes me wanna vomit a little.
Musk is the CEO who runs the company. The engineers are the ones who actually made it.

[spacenut]

Problem is Musk was deeply involved in developing Falcon 9 and Merlin.  Musk was also deeply involved in development of Raptor, Raptor 2 as well as Superheavy and Starship.  From what I understand, he actually designed the Raptor.  He also listens to his workers and then makes a decision. 

Give him credit where credit is due.  The man has worked 16 hours a day and lived in a 20' x 20' or 6m x 6m house at Boca Chica during the development stage of Raptor, Starship and Superheavy.  He has slept on the production floor of Tesla on a cot, while getting Tesla production up and running. 

No one works as hard as he does on something he is passionate about.  I know many of you here despise Musk, but you can't ignore what he has and is accomplishing. 

Where would we be today in space related activities if it wasn't for Musk?  Also, no one would be mass producing electric cars. 

[laszlo]

Problem is Musk was deeply involved in developing Falcon 9 and Merlin.  Musk was also deeply involved in development of Raptor, Raptor 2 as well as Superheavy and Starship.  From what I understand, he actually designed the Raptor.  He also listens to his workers and then makes a decision. 

Give him credit where credit is due.  The man has worked 16 hours a day and lived in a 20' x 20' or 6m x 6m house at Boca Chica during the development stage of Raptor, Starship and Superheavy.  He has slept on the production floor of Tesla on a cot, while getting Tesla production up and running. 

No one works as hard as he does on something he is passionate about.  I know many of you here despise Musk, but you can't ignore what he has and is accomplishing. 

Where would we be today in space related activities if it wasn't for Musk?  Also, no one would be mass producing electric cars.

I don't despise him and I do give him credit, but a lot of other people deserve credit that he seems to be grabbing for himself. As a point of fact, the electric car, FFSC rocket engine and mostly reusable rocket all existed either before he was born or reached puberty. What he did was improve and market them more successfully than his predecessors.

As far as "No one works as hard as he does on something he is passionate about.", well that's just utter bilge. Everyone who is that passionate about something works just as hard or harder. Look at single parents working 3 jobs to feed their kids, soldiers on deployment protecting their nation, doctors in ERs trying to keep people alive during a pandemic. The list is endless. Musk's passion just happened to be Mars and electric cars.

BTW, the definition of Dunning-Kruger I was going with was the one from Psychology Today - "The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area." which is totally consistent with "...he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time."

[Robotbeat]

In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.

I think that is a justifiable statement.

I assume the full quote is something like, “there’s probably no one who knows more about current limits of space tech than me, and I can tell you that none of these things is alien”

[Robotbeat]

Problem is Musk was deeply involved in developing Falcon 9 and Merlin.  Musk was also deeply involved in development of Raptor, Raptor 2 as well as Superheavy and Starship.  From what I understand, he actually designed the Raptor.  He also listens to his workers and then makes a decision. 

Give him credit where credit is due.  The man has worked 16 hours a day and lived in a 20' x 20' or 6m x 6m house at Boca Chica during the development stage of Raptor, Starship and Superheavy.  He has slept on the production floor of Tesla on a cot, while getting Tesla production up and running. 

No one works as hard as he does on something he is passionate about.  I know many of you here despise Musk, but you can't ignore what he has and is accomplishing. 

Where would we be today in space related activities if it wasn't for Musk?  Also, no one would be mass producing electric cars.

I don't despise him and I do give him credit, but a lot of other people deserve credit that he seems to be grabbing for himself. As a point of fact, the electric car, FFSC rocket engine and mostly reusable rocket all existed either before he was born or reached puberty. What he did was improve and market them more successfully than his predecessors.

As far as "No one works as hard as he does on something he is passionate about.", well that's just utter bilge. Everyone who is that passionate about something works just as hard or harder. Look at single parents working 3 jobs to feed their kids, soldiers on deployment protecting their nation, doctors in ERs trying to keep people alive during a pandemic. The list is endless. Musk's passion just happened to be Mars and electric cars.

BTW, the definition of Dunning-Kruger I was going with was the one from Psychology Today - "The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area." which is totally consistent with "...he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time."

there are a bunch of people who are sharper than Elon but who think Starship isn’t doable. I know one who told me barge landing isn’t possible.

I actually think the statement is defensible, if taken in its original context. SpaceX is at the cutting edge of space technology in multiple areas, and there isn’t anyone who has a higher insight into all of these technical areas at SpaceX than Elon, chief engineer of SpaceX. (Shotwell is co-leader of SpaceX, but focuses less on technical areas and more on business areas.)

This isn’t about “Elon invented FFSC” (which he did not), it’s just a fact that Elon is the chief engineer of the company that is most at the cutting edge of space technology.

[Robotbeat]

In his interview with the World Government summit which was posted onto social media yesterday, Elon, in response to a question about UFO’s, said that he doesn’t think there is anyone on Earth who knows more about Space Technology than himself at this point in time.

Dunning–Kruger

Who knows more about current space technology than the chief engineer of SpaceX? Give an example. (Note we aren’t talking people who are smarter or better technically skilled… there are lots of people with higher IQ than Elon. This is about knowledge of current space tech.)

[Robotbeat]

I might know about as much. 😝

I think I can name a few other people who have similar knowledge level. (EDIT: I’d be tempted to say Robert Zubrin may be more knowledgeable, actually, but Elon likely has more intimate knowledge of things in the industry that are non-public, due to his role as CEO/Chief Engineer at SpaceX.)

(But knowledge doesn’t always translate into competence or good engineering judgement… And it certainly doesn’t have to translate into social intelligence, like knowing that a basically true statement like that is gonna get you cyberbulled…)

But if any of you want to challenge me to an Autist-off on space tech knowledge, it’d be a fun thing to livestream.

[kevinof]

I prefer to think of the team at SpaceX rather than focus on Musk. They have built up a hell of a team with huge domain knowledge and a can do attitude. Musk may have been the initiator and catalyst but it’s the team that’s pushing forward now.

[Robotbeat]

I prefer to think of the team at SpaceX rather than focus on Musk. They have built up a hell of a team with huge domain knowledge and a can do attitude. Musk may have been the initiator and catalyst but it’s the team that’s pushing forward now.

Sure, but He’s still the chief engineer and keeps intimate knowledge of the frontier of space tech they’re pushing. The context of this is also just overall space tech knowledge (in context of whether there are alien UFOs), not who “deserves credit.”

(And Elon wasn’t that knowledgeable about these things when he started SpaceX… he made a bunch of rookie engineering mistakes.)

[RedLineTrain]

What is his level of knowledge relative to other chief engineers in the space industry?  For sure, SpaceX is handling a wide-ranging tech tree and its operations are unusually vertically integrated.

[matthewkantar]

People who live in Dunning–Kruger glass houses shouldn’t throw Dunning–Kruger stones. 🤪