SpaceX sets reuse records in 2020, looks ahead to even more ambitous 2021

[Chris Bergin]

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2021/01/spacex-reuse-records-2020-ambitious-2021/ - By Trevor Sesnic

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1345443329065025536

[scr00chy]

Great article! Although the tables are impossible to read on mobile.

Also, when did Musk set a goal of 10 fairing reuses? I must have missed that.

[AndrewRG10]

Great article! Although the tables are impossible to read on mobile.

Also, when did Musk set a goal of 10 fairing reuses? I must have missed that.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313446518695763968

Ahem, yes, it was the 3rd flight of this booster & 3rd flight for active half of fairing. Aiming for 10+ flights of booster & fairing by end of next year.

[Norm38]

48 launches in 2021?  There are only
33 on the manifest, including 6 Starlink.
Are they launching 15 more Starlink, 21 total?

[ATPTourFan]

So many second stages and MVac engines to build and test.

I suspect they suspend booster assembly and go full second stage only for large parts of the year.

[mandrewa]

48 launches in 2021?  There are only
33 on the manifest, including 6 Starlink.
Are they launching 15 more Starlink, 21 total?

The short answer is yes.  It clearly seems to be in SpaceX's interest to get as many Starlink satellites up in 2021 as they can.

And while I doubt that Starship will play any role in launching Starlink satellites in 2021, still SpaceX hopes to get the first launch of a Starship or two to orbit.  And that reduces the count to 19 Starlink launches in 2021.  Or about one and half per month.

It's not hard to believe they want to do that.  Whether they actually can is another story.

[smoliarm]

48 launches in 2021?  There are only
33 on the manifest, including 6 Starlink.
Are they launching 15 more Starlink, 21 total?

For 2019 they had a goal of 38, they launched 26.
So I'm taking this "goal of 48" similarly.

[Blackjax]

It's tempting to put together a quick financial model in a spreadsheet that would let you plug in various numbers to examine different scenarios for how this trend would affect their profitability this year vs the last two or three.  I can't imagine that nobody has done this already though.  Is anyone aware of anything like that?

[ZachS09]

48 launches in 2021?  There are only
33 on the manifest, including 6 Starlink.
Are they launching 15 more Starlink, 21 total?

For 2019 they had a goal of 38, they launched 26.
So I'm taking this "goal of 48" similarly.

It was actually 2020 that the goal was 38, but 26 were launched.

In 2019, the goal was 21 not including Starlinks, but SpaceX got 13 in altogether.

[woods170]

48 launches in 2021?  There are only
33 on the manifest, including 6 Starlink.
Are they launching 15 more Starlink, 21 total?

For 2019 they had a goal of 38, they launched 26.
So I'm taking this "goal of 48" similarly.

It was actually 2020 that the goal was 38, but 26 were launched.

In 2019, the goal was 21 not including Starlinks, but SpaceX got 13 in altogether.

So, in 2019 and 2020 SpaceX achieved only about two-thirds of the stated goals. Extrapolating to 2021 that puts the "realistic" number of launches at roughly 32. (not counting any launches from Boca Chica).

[CraigLieb]

So, in 2019 and 2020 SpaceX achieved only about two-thirds of the stated goals. Extrapolating to 2021 that puts the "realistic" number of launches at roughly 32. (not counting any launches from Boca Chica).

adding Boca Chica orbital launch attempts and unannounced NROL launches gets them to around 36, or 3/month.

[Jansen]

So far, it looks like SpaceX is on track for 20 launches in the first half of 2021.

They would need around 5 launches a month to achieve their target of 48 orbital launches, including launches from VSFB and Boca Chica.

[VaBlue]

So they have 20 launches six months in, and the general feel of this thread is, well, not disappointment, but not exactly enthusiasm, either.  It seems more like 'ho hum, just 40 instead of 48'...

It's an incredible pace given the history of space flight.  How many years does it take most launch outfits to get to 40 orbital launches?  Yet we still see a lack of serious attempts at full booster reuse!  Even Rocketlab, the closest competitor on reuse, is only looking at part of the story.  The sheer volume of launch activity, coupled with the pace of R&D, innovation, and development at SX, shows me a company that is similar to the great industrial giants of history.

[AC in NC]

So they have 20 launches six months in, and the general feel of this thread is, well, not disappointment, but not exactly enthusiasm, either.  It seems more like 'ho hum, just 40 instead of 48'...

The "general feel of this thread" that developed in the 57 minutes between Jansen's update and your post?  Is that the "general feel of this thread" that you are editorializing on? 

Prior to Jansen, the last post was from January 4th.  Any editorializing on the lack of commentary since the Jan 4th preceding post seems questionable as that seems likely due to falling off the 1st page lack of interest.

[Jansen]

So they have 20 launches six months in, and the general feel of this thread is, well, not disappointment, but not exactly enthusiasm, either.  It seems more like 'ho hum, just 40 instead of 48'...

Not sure where you’re getting that feeling from.

SpaceX can do six launches a month from Florida if the weather holds and there aren’t customer delays.

If it wasn’t for the landing loss of a booster and the long delay due to investigations, they would be at the 24 launch mark at the end of June.

Now they are no longer booster constrained, the primary constraint will be ASDS availability.