SpaceX F9 / Crew Dragon : Crew-4 : KSC LC-39A : 27 April 2022 (07:52 UTC)

[Conexion Espacial]

Cross Post:

ESA confirms that astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti will no longer be the commander of Expedition 68, also, the Crew-4 mission will not spend six months on the ISS, it will be a shorter stay.
https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Revised_flight_plan_brings_change_for_Samantha?s=09

[John_Marshall]

Cross Post:

ESA confirms that astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti will no longer be the commander of Expedition 68, also, the Crew-4 mission will not spend six months on the ISS, it will be a shorter stay.
https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Revised_flight_plan_brings_change_for_Samantha?s=09

Does anyone know what's leading to the schedule change and shorter stay?

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross Post:

ESA confirms that astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti will no longer be the commander of Expedition 68, also, the Crew-4 mission will not spend six months on the ISS, it will be a shorter stay.
https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Revised_flight_plan_brings_change_for_Samantha?s=09

Does anyone know what's leading to the schedule change and shorter stay?

Look 5 posts up-thread from your own, please.

[John_Marshall]

Look 5 posts up-thread from your own, please.

Oops! I missed that. Thanks!

[zubenelgenubi]

Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated March 6, lists the Crew-4 launch time as ~8:00 am EDT on April 15--a less precise launch time than listed previously.
= ~12:00 UTC

[John Santos]

Look 5 posts up-thread from your own, please.

Oops! I missed that. Thanks!

Except it doesn't actually explain anything.  It just says "for reasons", really.  It says it has something to do with keeping crew on board, but not why the problem arises nor why shortening the mission solves the problem.

[nuukee]

Except it doesn't actually explain anything.  It just says "for reasons", really.  It says it has something to do with keeping crew on board, but not why the problem arises nor why shortening the mission solves the problem.

Did you read Eric Berger's tweets that are upthread?
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1499754796923998215

Quote:
"1. This is not a reflection of Samantha, whom just about everyone I've spoken to about says is awesome. And my personal interactions with her have been great as well. This does seem to be purely a scheduling issue.
2. This *is* about giving NASA and ESA maximum flexibility in ensuring a direct handover between Crew-4 and Crew-5 this fall, to ensure there is no gap in which there is no US astronaut on board. This puts the NASA handover before the Soyuz handover this fall.
3. This change was in the works before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so it was not done in response to that. (Although escalating tensions certainly make the move seem prudent). Basically, this ensures NASA/ESA people will be on the station even if there is no Soyuz seat swap."

[kdhilliard]

...

3. This change was in the works before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so it was not done in response to that. (Although escalating tensions certainly make the move seem prudent). Basically, this ensures NASA/ESA people will be on the station even if there is no Soyuz seat swap."

This makes it sound as if NASA was starting to doubt the viability of the Soyuz seat swap prior to the invasion.

[Lars-J]

...

3. This change was in the works before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, so it was not done in response to that. (Although escalating tensions certainly make the move seem prudent). Basically, this ensures NASA/ESA people will be on the station even if there is no Soyuz seat swap."

This makes it sound as if NASA was starting to doubt the viability of the Soyuz seat swap prior to the invasion.

That was probably more as a reaction to the missed Crew 2-3 direct handover due to delays. But it could be some of that as well.

[kdhilliard]

That was probably more as a reaction to the missed Crew 2-3 direct handover due to delays. But it could be some of that as well.

Sure, that is part of the equation, but I thought a missed handover was one of the problems crew swaps were supposed to address.

[Lars-J]

I may be out to lunch but I have a concern and I couldn’t find a better topic where to post my concern.  Here we go:

I’m not so certain I want to trust Russia with the safe return and well being of US astronaut Mark Vande Hei.  I think Russia is just unstable enough to take Vande Hei into custody upon landing in Kazakhstan.  With that in mind, what viable options are there?  Dragon has four seats so there is that limiting factor (LIMFAC).  Another LIMFAC is Vande Hei doesn’t have a SpaceX IVA suit.  Are these suits custom tailored or could one, off the shelf, be transported up with Crew-4 for his use.  If that is feasible, who would be left behind when Crew-3 returns?  I honestly want an idea of what viable options exist for his safe return from space and to the United States.

SpaceX IVA suits are custom tailored.
And no, he will not be left on the station without a way off it.
And with 99.9% certainty he will land in *Kazakhstan* (not Russia) in a Soyuz as planned and come home safe, you can be sure of that no matter some of the alarmist posts/news.

[gemmy0I]

I may be out to lunch but I have a concern and I couldn’t find a better topic where to post my concern.  Here we go:

I’m not so certain I want to trust Russia with the safe return and well being of US astronaut Mark Vande Hei.  I think Russia is just unstable enough to take Vande Hei into custody upon landing in Kazakhstan.  With that in mind, what viable options are there?  Dragon has four seats so there is that limiting factor (LIMFAC).  Another LIMFAC is Vande Hei doesn’t have a SpaceX IVA suit.  Are these suits custom tailored or could one, off the shelf, be transported up with Crew-4 for his use.  If that is feasible, who would be left behind when Crew-3 returns?  I honestly want an idea of what viable options exist for his safe return from space and to the United States.

From a strictly technical standpoint, the options are:

1) Return him without a spacesuit, "strapped in" to a non-seat location as the fifth passenger in the Crew-3 Dragon. This type of scenario has already been studied and acknowledged in the past as a viable possibility for contingency scenarios, albeit with some safety tradeoffs (some only in double-contingency scenarios, others certain). Those tradeoffs are that he would not be protected in the event of a Dragon depressurization (i.e., there is a loss of redundancy, but he'd still be safe if the primary safety measure, i.e. the main pressure hull, remains intact), and he would experience g-forces in a suboptimal posture during reentry and splashdown. The g-forces in question are not life-threating but might lead to some minor/survivable injuries, particularly in the event of a rough splashdown (e.g. if one of the chutes fails).

2) Leave an empty seat going up on either Ax-1 or Crew-4, and return Vande Hei in that seat without a spacesuit. Solves the g-force problems but does not address the depressurization contingency scenario. Downside is he would be on the station for a few weeks without an assigned return seat in the event of an evacuation. If that were to happen they would need to fall back to option 1).

3) Like 2), but send up a new empty suit for him to use on the way down. This would be the ideal scenario from a safety perspective but depends on the feasibility of creating/finding a suit in time that can fit him. Whether SpaceX can whip up a suitable suit that quickly (or find one from their existing stock that is a "close enough" fit) is an open question. They can probably find an existing one that can fit, since there have been reports of them using previous crews' suits as training suits for upcoming crews before their own have been made. I could be wrong, but I don't get the impression Vande Hei is particularly "far from the average" in terms of the physical dimensions of prior astronauts who've flown on Dragon. A "tight fit" is probably less crucial for the SpaceX suit than for the Soyuz's Sokol suit because there is a lot more "wiggle room" around the seats (unlike Soyuz which is extremely snug).

4) Modify an upcoming Dragon to include a 5th seat (possibly of a more "quick and dirty" design than the other 4). May be possible in theory, and I wouldn't bet against SpaceX's ability to rise to the occasion, but I'd consider this a far less likely scenario than just leaving an empty seat for him on Crew-4.

*If* NASA were to decide to take Vande Hei's return off Soyuz (or the Russians were to insist upon such - which, notably, Rogozin just officially clarified today they do not intend to do, despite his earlier mocking video), I think the most likely scenario would be to bump a crew member from Crew-4 and launch it with an empty suit in the seat, supplying the suit from SpaceX's stock of previous crews' suits retained for training. This would be relatively straightforward and would not have to result in any reduction of the station's crew complement, as either Vande Hei could have his mission extended until Crew-4's normal return (i.e. he'd effectively replace the bumped crew member) or, if NASA doesn't want to prolong his already year-long mission, they could send him home with Crew-3 and give one of the Crew-3 members an extension. (They've done "in-orbit extensions" like this in the past e.g. with Drew Morgan and Christina Koch.)

I read in another thread (but unfortunately cannot find it right now, so take this with a grain of salt) that bumping a crew member from Ax-1 is apparently considered a non-starter right now; Crew-4 would be the more likely candidate if an upcoming Dragon mission were to be involved in a switch-up of Vande Hei's return.

Incidentally, to your question of whether there's another thread more appropriate to discuss this: the question of Vande Hei's safe return has been discussed at some length over in this thread in the Space Policy subforum, but since that board is read-only for non-L2 members, I suppose the Crew-4 thread is as on-topic a place as any for this question.

[Rondaz]

Our next mission to the @Space_Station with @SpaceX's Crew Dragon spacecraft is set to lift off from @NASAKennedy no earlier than April 15.

Media accreditation deadlines for the #Crew4 launch are March 20 for U.S. media & March 13 for international media:

https://twitter.com/Commercial_Crew/status/1502350438078820355

[drnscr]

Lars, I think you misunderstood the intent of my question.  First, my question came from a “what if” perspective which, as a war planner when I was in the military, we had to do a lot of table top exercises asking the “what if” question.  Secondly, I don’t trust Rogozin, Putin or anyone in the Russian government and while Kazakhstan is, indeed, an independent country, I don’t believe for one minute if Putin wanted to grab Vande Hei that it wouldn’t be done.  But, I am not an alarmist, I’m a realist.

[drnscr]

gemmyol, thank you… I overlooked that… I’ll move the question there… there is nothing wrong with posing what if questions.

[Rondaz]

We are ONE month away from the launch of @NASA's @SpaceX #Crew4 mission!

The launch will carry three NASA astronauts – @Astro_Kjell, @Astro_FarmerBob, and Jessica Watkins, to the @Space_Station – as well as @ESA astronaut @AstroSamantha:

https://twitter.com/Commercial_Crew/status/1503767451695304708

[Rondaz]

The name Minerva is inspired by the Roman goddess of wisdom, the handicrafts and the arts... a homage to the competence & craftmanship of the amazing men and women all over the world who make spaceflight possible!

https://twitter.com/AstroSamantha/status/1504433162851651589

[zubenelgenubi]

Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated March 17:

And another crew of four astronauts, NASA's Crew-4, will head to the ISS from pad 39A on April 15 earliest, around 8am EDT.

= ~12:00 UTC

[Rondaz]

NASA, SpaceX Adjust Target Launch Date for Crew-4 Mission

Kathleen Ellis Posted on March 18, 2022

The official crew portrait of the SpaceX Crew-4 astronauts representing NASA’s Commercial Crew Program. From left are, Pilot Robert Hines, Mission Specialists Samantha Cristoforetti and Jessica Watkins, and Commander Kjell Lindgren. Hines, Watkins, and Lindgren are NASA astronauts and Cristoforetti is an ESA (European Space Agency) astronaut.

Axiom Space and SpaceX are adjusting the launch date for the Axiom Mission 1 (Ax-1) to the International Space Station to allow teams to complete final spacecraft processing ahead of the mission. The Ax-1 crew will fly on Dragon Endeavour to and from the space station. After 10 days in orbit, the Ax-1 crew will splash down off the coast of Florida.

NASA and SpaceX also will adjust the target launch date for the agency’s SpaceX Crew-4 mission to the International Space Station to allow appropriate spacing for operations and post-flight data reviews between human spaceflight missions and to allow for multiple consecutive launch attempts based on the orbital mechanics for arrival to the space station. The current no earlier than launch date is Tuesday, April 19, pending completion of program reviews expected early next week to formalize the new target. Crew-4 will carry an international crew of four astronauts to the orbital complex on a new Dragon spacecraft and flight proven Falcon 9 rocket for a science expedition mission.

https://blogs.nasa.gov/crew-4/2022/03/18/nasa-spacex-adjust-target-launch-date-for-crew-4-mission/

[Rondaz]

.@NASA and @SpaceX are now targeting no earlier than April 19 for the launch of the #Crew4 mission to the @Space_Station.

https://twitter.com/Commercial_Crew/status/1504843796659453958