Author Topic: Europe Wants Its Own Alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink Network  (Read 27815 times)

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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The UK and the EU could do a deal made in heaven. The UK gives the EU a stake and access to OneWeb while the EU gives the UK a stake and access to Galileo.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline eeergo

It would be against its interests and investments to strongly support maintenance-intenstive, non-resilient megaconstellations instead of the more robust ground technology it has become a forefront player on. Of course, if Spain can do this, most mid-sized countries with a reasonably large economy can too.

Satellites (launched from one place, and self deorbiting when not working properly) and isolated (but essentially single design and made in mass quantities) ground stations are maintenance intensive, and fixed fiber running in a myriad different directions is *not* maintenance intensive?

That seems counterintuitive, so please justify that if you would.

Let's consider, in this case, the comms package and associated infrastructure (both in-space and ground) in both systems to be roughly equal in intrinsic complexity and need for maintenance intensity.

Caveat: This is quite possibly not the case, with the space segment requiring extra safeguards and self-sufficiency, while on the other hand somewhat balanced by doing away with the large amount of transmission medium needed for fiber - but given it would be difficult to compare everything apples-to-apples in such extensive systems without getting too bogged down, let's give space-bound systems some advantage in the reasoning.

With this presumption in mind, it seems intuitive the system that can fail in a more "finely quantized" way -be it because of earlier fault detection, easier component replacement, swifter access preventing cascading effects- will be less maintenance-intensive.

Also, it is notoriously in megaconstellations' DNA to consider individual assets as inherently-disposable and/or replaceable (be it to favor upgradeability, to provide flexibility, allow for cheap production or whatever reason), which implies a need for constant, intensive constellation maintenance. The routing and cross-country subsystems in fiber are much more passive and modular. Hubs/ground-segments OTOH would be similarly very/little maintenance-intensive in both systems, to first approximation.
-DaviD-

Offline Star One

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The UK and the EU could do a deal made in heaven. The UK gives the EU a stake and access to OneWeb while the EU gives the UK a stake and access to Galileo.
That’s too logical for either side I expect.

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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The UK and the EU could do a deal made in heaven. The UK gives the EU a stake and access to OneWeb while the EU gives the UK a stake and access to Galileo.
That’s too logical for either side I expect.
I expect the UK would say 'NO!" because they can get acces to Gallileo, but they can't get a say in how it's operated/ can't build and develop encrypted receivers.
But the EU could also invest in the Oneweb constellation diluting the UK interest in it, if permitted. AFAIK oneweb still needs several billions in funding.
But I'm against LEO consat constallations expecially when they go over 1000 satellites.

Offline Stealthsub

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It seems that SpaceX and OneWeb chose orbital height & inclination, that were optimal for their LEO megaconstellations.
What if in the future other countries or companies wanted to place their megaconstellations at exact same orbital height & inclination. Chance of collisions wouldn't be longer negligible, risk of creating space debris higher, concerns of astronomers potentially unsolvable.   

SpaceX have only 5 years before it will need to start replacing first launched Starlinks. What articles of international law can other countries and companies use in the future, to force them limit number of ST at exact orbital height & inclination and share it with their constellations.
« Last Edit: 01/01/2021 01:21 pm by Stealthsub »

Offline DreamyPickle

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It seems that SpaceX and OneWeb chose orbital height & inclination, that were optimal for their LEO megaconstellations.
What if in the future other countries or companies wanted to place their megaconstellations at exact same orbital height & inclination.
Maybe operators could publish their orbits and maneuvering plans and build a system of automatic active collision avoidance? It's not clear what the upper limit is on the number of LEO satellites but it could be extremely high.

Quote
SpaceX have only 5 years before it will need to start replacing first launched Starlinks. What articles of international law can other countries and companies use in the future, to force them limit number of ST at exact orbital height & inclination and share it with their constellations.
The US government is responsible for all launches from its territory including any harmful interference. I don't think any international treaties provide for numerical limits on satellites. Since all space-faring powers seem to be planning mega-constellations a legal challenge to mega-constellations is not very likely at all.

A cooperative treaty on debris mitigation would be very useful, most of what we have is optional guidelines. The outer-space treaty is very old and primarily concerned with controlling nuclear weapons in the context of the Cold War, not economic activity.

Offline ZachF

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They better get started yesterday on a fully reusable system then, if they want even a small hope of succeeding. Ariane 6 won't cut it if SpaceX can launch more tonnage to orbit per year for a couple hundred million than the entire European launch industry has over its total existence to date.
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Offline edzieba

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They better get started yesterday on a fully reusable system then, if they want even a small hope of succeeding. Ariane 6 won't cut it if SpaceX can launch more tonnage to orbit per year for a couple hundred million than the entire European launch industry has over its total existence to date.
Not necessarily, for the same reason Ariane or Proton didn't kill off Atlas or Delta: the requirements for maintaining domestic competence ('do we have the knowledge and infrastructure to build and launch a carrier rocket?') and capability ('can we launch satellites without being beholden to any other nation who may suddenly decide not to launch our satellites?') can outweigh pure launch cost.

Offline ZachF

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They better get started yesterday on a fully reusable system then, if they want even a small hope of succeeding. Ariane 6 won't cut it if SpaceX can launch more tonnage to orbit per year for a couple hundred million than the entire European launch industry has over its total existence to date.
Not necessarily, for the same reason Ariane or Proton didn't kill off Atlas or Delta: the requirements for maintaining domestic competence ('do we have the knowledge and infrastructure to build and launch a carrier rocket?') and capability ('can we launch satellites without being beholden to any other nation who may suddenly decide not to launch our satellites?') can outweigh pure launch cost.

The point that I feel many are missing, is that what it means to have "Independent access" is going to change so drastically with the introduction of reusable launch vehicles, that the current strategy of ensuring independent access is actually going to create the *opposite* effect.

Does Europe really have independent access if their domestic launch industry is only capable of literally  1/100th that of the United States which only has a slightly larger economy? The United states will have capabilities Europe can only dream of if it continues to pursue it's current path.

That's why I'm saying they need to start on a reusable system now. What they are doing now is essentially dumping money into the manufacturing capability for rotary landline phones when their competitors make iPhones that cost 1/10th the price. All that money going into preserving rotary landline phones is actually producing the opposite effect.

The difference in capability between something like starship and the Ariane 6 isnt comparable to Proton. Not even a little bit. I'm not even being hyperbolic when I say that SpaceX could be launching more Starlink satellites  per year in tonnage terms than every single payload the european launch industry has ever launched in its existence combined... and it can do that for the cost equivalent  of like 1-3 flights of Ariane 6!!! Expendables cannot compete, even with the government pushing their fingers on the scale. The performance delta is just *that* huge.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2021 05:26 pm by ZachF »
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Offline Rik ISS-fan

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An European alternative for the Starlink Network, aka an European LEO ComSat constellation. For high rate data connection at rural area's.
Launch requirement for deploying and maintaining a LEO ComSat constellation vary with:
- number of satellites that form the constellation.
- Size/ mass of the satellites. The number of satellites per launch.
- Lifetime (/duration of use) of the satellites.

Let's take the European Gallileo GNSS constellation as example.
It's formed by 24 satellites, three 23 222km 56deg. orbits with 8 satellites. The satellites are designed for 12 year usage. And they can be launched in pairs (Soyuz/A62) or with four at once (A5ES/A62+IOS). So to maintain the Galileo constellation the EU needs 6 to 12 launches in 12 years. (0,5 - 1 launch a year)

Now let's compare different LEO Comsat constellations.   
 
Two LEO ComSat constellations are in buildup phase; (I couldn't find the lifetimes)
- SpaceX Starlink  1440 (-12k) sats, 60 on a Falcon 9 launch. (24 launches) 
- and OneWeb ~640 (-1980 6372) sats., 32-36 on Soyuz 2.1B Fregat-M launches. (19 launches)
There are several other proposals:
- Boeing  1396 - 2956 sats
- Amazon Project Kuiper  1236 sats
- (Canada) Telesat LEO 298 (117 - 512) sats
- (China) Hongyun  320 - 864 sats
- (China) Hongyan  156 sats
- LeoSat [abandoned] 78 - 108 sats
So the sizes of LEO ComSat constellations very hugely. (Also because the sizes of the satellites vary a lot.)
SpaceX Starlink uses the most satellites for it's system. In my opinion the fewer satellites required for the constellation the better, because lower collision risk and fewer data routing changes required.
I also think longer utilization durations are beter (10-15y instead of ~5y), because this reduces the cost of the constellation. Also for system affordability you want to pack as many satellites as possible on each launch.
So if Europe/the EU thinks more into the Telesat / LeoSat direction than the starlink direction, the launch requirement might not be that high.

AFAIK the current launch rate from CSG is limited by range availability. With Ariane 6 the limit will be on P120C casting capability, that's limited to 35 annually. That's for both Vega C/E and Ariane 6. In a very high launch rate scenario, I expect 5x Vega C/E and up to 15x Ariane 62. ESA/ArianeGroup planned for roughly 11x A6 annually. But I think most production can be increased when launch demand requires it (from 11 to 15 annually).
Though more expansive than a reusable launcher, launch capability wise it suffices. With this in mind a European LEO ComSat constellation will most likely have higher cost, but it can distinguish itself by being European (aka NOT USA), and higher quality.
For many developments if the desire to develop it is high enough, it will succeed eventually. AFAIK, in Europe technology isn't the problem.

Edit to add: There is also an EuroNews article (with video)
Brussels bids to boost Europe's connectivity with 600 low-orbit satellites

I think this is part of the EU Space Program, SSA and GovSatCom program (€442 million between 2021 to 2027)
« Last Edit: 01/14/2021 10:07 pm by Rik ISS-fan »

Offline su27k

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EU must 'move at speed' on space broadband network

Quote
"From the first idea about Galileo through to the first operational service in Europe, it has taken 20 years; we don't have 20 years [for this new project]," observed Jean-Marc Nasr, the head of Airbus Space Systems, which leads the feasibility consortium.

"Speed is of the essence here. The idea of the European space infrastructure has been on the table since early 2020. We cannot have the first service in 2040. If we do that, we are dead.

"We have to have the service operational at the end of this decade at the latest. And this requires all of us to work as a team to deliver the best competitive service and technical background to Europe."

Offline su27k

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Some progress on this: Europe making progress on sovereign LEO constellation as OneWeb and Starlink race ahead

Quote
The industry consortium devising a satellite network to keep the European Union from falling too far behind the megaconstellation goldrush is weeks away from nailing down key criteria.

The group has already made initial proposals on elements including frequency and orbital characteristics, according to Dominic Hayes, frequency manager for the EU space program at the European Commission’s Defence Industry and Space (DEFIS) department.

“They’re presenting those as firm deliverables in the course of the next few weeks,” Hayes told SATELLITE 2021’s EMEA + Asia Digital Forum May 18.


And some food fights: EU questions Eutelsat for taking stake in OneWeb

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Eutelsat has jeopardised its involvement in a new EU space-based internet service by investing alongside the UK government in the satellite broadband company, OneWeb, the EU’s internal market commissioner has warned.

“We took good note of their decision to participate in a project that is in direct competition with the European initiative. I do not see how, structurally, an entity can have stakes in two competing projects,” said Thierry Breton, who also oversees the European Commission’s tech policy, at the launch of the European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA).

The new EU constellation was “absolutely critical for our autonomy, for our sovereignty, for our future. So, we will not compromise,” he added.


Offline Craftyatom

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And some food fights: EU questions Eutelsat for taking stake in OneWeb

SpaceNews just ran an article on this (using some of the same quotes), and it includes a brief mention of the ongoing design studies:
Quote from: SpaceNews
[Thierry Breton, EU commissioner] suggested he was unhappy with the industry group’s progress on the satellite communications study. “To tell you the truth, it was very interesting, it was important, but not too innovative,” he said of the first results from that effort. He said the EU will commission a second study involving smaller businesses and startups, rather that the larger companies involved in the first one. They will provide a report within two months.
All aboard the HSF hype train!  Choo Choo!

Offline su27k

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French Space Command: Europe must react to U.S., Chinese constellations’ land grab in low Earth orbit

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The head of France’s Space Command appeared to endorse the European Commission’s proposal for a mega-constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit to preserve spectrum and orbital-slot rights in the face of U.S. and Chinese advances.

Gen. Michel Friedling acknowledged that the business models of broadband constellations has yet to be proven. But given the strategic implications, he said, their ultimate profitability, while important, “is not the subject here. It’s sovereignty.”

"It’s sovereignty."? Someone need to re-read the Outer Space Treaty I think....

Offline Hobbes-22

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Not that kind of sovereignty. If megaconstellation satcom becomes essential for governments and business in Europe, the EC doesn't want to be reliant on foreign entities to provide it (and take it away at their whim, as happened with Symphonie).

Offline woods170

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Not that kind of sovereignty. If megaconstellation satcom becomes essential for governments and business in Europe, the EC doesn't want to be reliant on foreign entities to provide it (and take it away at their whim, as happened with Symphonie).

I hope you realise that is one heck of a major IF, given that land-based internet-access structure in Europe (including Scandinavia) is generally better than most other regions on the planet (the exceptions being Japan and South Korea).

The currently leading mega constellation is not government owned. Unlike governments SpaceX would not have a motivation to take away Starlink at their whim. It would kill their business model for going to Mars. Starlink is pretty much guaranteed to stay for a very long time.

Same for Kuiper: owned by a private entity, not government. And thus no motivation to take it away for no good reason (assuming it becomes successful).

A Chinese mega constellation will be focused primariy on China and its direct allies. Much like how Beidou is structured. So, won't be available in Europe anyway.


OneWeb is now partially owned by the UK government. Its service could potentially be denied to EU for political reasons (Brexit fall-out).
« Last Edit: 06/23/2021 08:23 am by woods170 »

Offline DreamyPickle

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This is one of the EU's dumber ideas, particularly all the chest thumping regarding "sovereignty".

The real purpose of this project is to generate demand for Ariane 6 which is otherwise never going to reach the commercial relevance that Ariane 5 once had.

Also: thread does not belong in "Commercial Space" since there is nothing commercial about this: it's a state funded idea with motivations that are entirely political.

Offline dondar

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and ESA's very public calling out of SpaceX not being responsive when ESA had to move one of their satellites to avoid a collision with a SpaceX satellite.  ;)
You mean the ESA thanking SpaceX for their response*, while simultaneously using it as a point to emphasise the need for a global platform for communicating conjunctions and collaborating on avoidance (rather than the current non-mechanism of 'erm, send them an email, or maybe a fax?')?
The ESA only pointed the finger of blame within the minds of tabloid headline writers, not in reality.

*
Quote
Contact with Starlink early in the process allowed ESA to take conflict-free action later, knowing the second spacecraft would remain where models expected it to be. [...] “No one was at fault here, but this example does show the urgent need for proper space traffic management, with clear communication protocols and more automation,”
this is the German part of ESA. They are generally quite positive toward SpaceX. The British were extremely vocal on twitter and had initiated "tabloids" wave.

Offline alanr74

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I think this is all pie in the sky really.

OneWeb will take any "sovereign" European need in the next two years, before anything is even manufactured for the EU.

It all smells of "we want one to" by the EU and the states will end up funding it.

Europe has good infrastructure as it is and with OneWeb concentrating on just being a backend supplier, with individual states using trusted national suppliers rather than OneWeb, governments have the security they need with an existing European LEO.

I imagine going forward the EU will need some military communications satellites for its own army but that's putting the cart before the horse.
« Last Edit: 06/28/2021 07:13 pm by alanr74 »

Offline edzieba

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this is the German part of ESA. They are generally quite positive toward SpaceX. The British were extremely vocal on twitter and had initiated "tabloids" wave.
British tabloids being what they are, if you assume whatever they report is the polar opposite of what has happened then you will do better than average on having an accurate picture of reality. They usefully report news in the same way a clock painted on the wall tells the correct time twice a day.
Think of them as a mean-spirited Weekly World News.
Europe has good infrastructure as it is
Cities and dense urban areas may have good network infrastructure (but not necessarily, digging up old cities to install fibre without poking through old but still in use infrastructure is no easy task). But more rural areas - and Europe is large, that's a lot of area - are well served... by copper POTS lines that may still be the original ones installed in the late 1800s/early 1900s, or if you're very lucky just post WWII. Some of these may be adequate for gen 1 ADSL, but many may still be limited to dialup. The issues of running fibre to these locations are the same as in the US. End-user costs may be much lower across most of Europe due to greater competition, but the issues of last-mile rollout remain the same as in the US.
Plus there's the dual-duty of a global satellite network for shared military use. GOVSATCOM is already in the works (EU equivalent of the WGS collaboration), combining this with global internet availability may reduce system costs, or allow more robust coverage (e.g. if you can afford X satellites for military communications, Y satellites for emergency services communications, and Z satellites for consumer internet, you can combine them to an X+Y+Z sized constellation if you can get everyone to agree on requirements). GOVSATCOM is for all individual member nations to use, not for some notional 'EU army'.
The US DoD is also looking at using Starlink for data transfer (gov data over private PHY layer), this would be analogous but the other way around (private comms over gov PHY). While "but governments aren't allowed to compete with private providers!" may be an ideological issue, it is not a practical one.

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