Author Topic: Europe Wants Its Own Alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink Network  (Read 27814 times)

Offline su27k

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/europe-wants-its-own-alternative-to-elon-musk-s-starlink-network

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European nations want to build a 6 billion-euro ($7.3 billion) alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink network so the region isn’t left behind in the race to develop satellite broadband.

European Union officials signed off on a study for a low-earth orbit constellation similar to Starlink that would offer secure government communications and bring internet to isolated communities, French newspaper Les Echos reported, citing unnamed people in the bloc’s Commission.

The EU could make an announcement about a satellite constellation on Thursday, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, without giving further details.

Offline freddo411

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This is disappointing. Starlink is inherently global and  could serve  Europe extremely well.

Offline Asteroza

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If brexit hadn't happened, OneWeb being acquired by the UK/EU would have satisfied that need...

Offline Lar

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/europe-wants-its-own-alternative-to-elon-musk-s-starlink-network

Quote
European nations want to build a 6 billion-euro ($7.3 billion) alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink network so the region isn’t left behind in the race to develop satellite broadband.

European Union officials signed off on a study for a low-earth orbit constellation similar to Starlink that would offer secure government communications and bring internet to isolated communities, French newspaper Les Echos reported, citing unnamed people in the bloc’s Commission.

The EU could make an announcement about a satellite constellation on Thursday, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, without giving further details.

7 billion is low cost? There's no way that SpaceX will have invested anywhere near that amount, IMHO, before the system and its growth are self funding, and shortly thereafter, starts throwing off vast sums of cash while still growing.  No government program can do that.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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This is disappointing. Starlink is inherently global and  could serve  Europe extremely well.

Yes, but the euros would be heading to the US instead of Europe and it would be at the whim of US political interference. The EU can easily afford its own system (its GDP is only 9% less than the US) so that it too can provide a global system that would also serve the US extremely well. :-)
« Last Edit: 12/17/2020 06:12 am by Steven Pietrobon »
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline Danderman

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It’s just a study.

Offline NosFi

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Internet for isolated communities? In Europe?
We are 3 times more densly populated than the USA.

Please don't waste my money on that and better spend that money on rolling out Fibre optics faster
« Last Edit: 12/17/2020 07:32 am by NosFi »

Offline eeergo

It’s just a study.

(Unfortunately, even though my dayjob would benefit from it) it's intended as something more than just a study:

https://twitter.com/Megaconstellati/status/1339481909773160449
-DaviD-

Offline rklaehn

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Hopefully that does not mean they will outlaw Starlink to make their own offering competitive. I would not be surprised by such an action.

Offline Hobbes-22

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Internet for isolated communities? In Europe?
We are 3 times more densly populated than the USA.

Please don't waste my money on that and better spend that money on rolling out Fibre optics faster

Don't assume  average density = density everywhere. Europe has large, thinly populated areas in e.g. Sweden, Norway, Finland, Spain, France. Isolated communities on a large number of small islands.

Offline eeergo

Internet for isolated communities? In Europe?
We are 3 times more densly populated than the USA.

Please don't waste my money on that and better spend that money on rolling out Fibre optics faster

Don't assume  average density = density everywhere. Europe has large, thinly populated areas in e.g. Sweden, Norway, Finland, Spain, France. Isolated communities on a large number of small islands.

Spain for example has put in place very strong, pluripartisan fiber-tending programs, including through rural or non-profitable areas, that make its data ground infrastructure the most developed in Europe (more FTTH than France, Italy, Germany and UK combined, at 80.4% of connected homes, the perspective to reach >90% in one year's time, and 100% including rural communities in 2025), one of the best in the world - in spite of the large swaths of territory that are sparsely populated and the off-mainland archipielagos.

It would be against its interests and investments to strongly support maintenance-intenstive, non-resilient megaconstellations instead of the more robust ground technology it has become a forefront player on. Of course, if Spain can do this, most mid-sized countries with a reasonably large economy can too.

A good review (in Spanish): https://www.xataka.com/otros/estado-conexion-fibra-espana-2020-cobertura-actual-planes-operadoras-para-proximos-anos
-DaviD-

Offline edzieba

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-16/europe-wants-its-own-alternative-to-elon-musk-s-starlink-network

Quote
European nations want to build a 6 billion-euro ($7.3 billion) alternative to Elon Musk’s Starlink network so the region isn’t left behind in the race to develop satellite broadband.

European Union officials signed off on a study for a low-earth orbit constellation similar to Starlink that would offer secure government communications and bring internet to isolated communities, French newspaper Les Echos reported, citing unnamed people in the bloc’s Commission.

The EU could make an announcement about a satellite constellation on Thursday, a person familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, without giving further details.

7 billion is low cost? There's no way that SpaceX will have invested anywhere near that amount, IMHO, before the system and its growth are self funding, and shortly thereafter, starts throwing off vast sums of cash while still growing.  No government program can do that.
SpaceX did it with less, so therefore it's impossible to do it with more?

Sovereignty concerns are just as valid for high-bandwidth satellite networking as satellite positioning systems (Galileo), or satellite weather monitoring & climate science (Copernicus), or inter-satellite data links (EDRS), etc. With US companies being subject to US jurisdiction, and the last 4 years providing an object demonstration that the US cannot be considered a reliable international partner, there is a desire to have independent and locally operated systems, including networking and data services in general. This is both at the hardware, software, and service levels (why there is a focus on US-located data processors like Google, Facebook, etc). Global networking coverage falls into a similar situation as global positioning coverage: you want access everywhere, without being beholden to someone else.

Offline daedalus1

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I think everyone will want what Musk has got. The problem there is that it is easier said than done.

Offline Star One

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This is disappointing. Starlink is inherently global and  could serve  Europe extremely well.

Yes, but the euros would be heading to the US instead of Europe and it would be at the whim of US political interference. The EU can easily afford its own system (its GDP is only 9% less than the US) so that it too can provide a global system that would also serve the US extremely well. :-)
Precisely not everyone wants to be at the behest of some US private company. I imagine that could possibly be the thinking in certain European nations.
« Last Edit: 12/17/2020 03:10 pm by Star One »

Offline Star One

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I think everyone will want what Musk has got. The problem there is that it is easier said than done.
No that’s just you assuming everyone will want what he has.

Offline Hauerg

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I think everyone will want what Musk has got. The problem there is that it is easier said than done.
No that’s just you assuming everyone will want what he has.
Not much to aasume here:
„Everyone“ wants BEVs as good as Teslas.
„Everyone“ wants his rockets to be reusable and cheaper.
Seems Starlink is the next on the list.


Offline Hauerg

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Internet for isolated communities? In Europe?
We are 3 times more densly populated than the USA.

Please don't waste my money on that and better spend that money on rolling out Fibre optics faster
I have heard „fibre!!“ for how many decades now?
And still the best wires can do where I live is 16Mbit.

Offline Davidthefat

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Haven't really been paying attention to Starlink and other internet constellations, but what advantage do they have over a few dedicated satellites in GEO? If the intent is to only serve far outlying communities within a relatively small area, it seems like it's a better to invest in a few big satellites than dozens/hundreds of smaller ones. Especially given the costs of launching with an Ariane (assuming EU will want EU satellites to launch with ESA assets), economically, it seems cheaper to go the GEO route. They probably can take an existing satellite bus (Like a Eurostar?) instead of developing a brand new one designed to be deployed as a constellation (low volume, high density satellites)

Offline cdebuhr

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Haven't really been paying attention to Starlink and other internet constellations, but what advantage do they have over a few dedicated satellites in GEO? If the intent is to only serve far outlying communities within a relatively small area, it seems like it's a better to invest in a few big satellites than dozens/hundreds of smaller ones. Especially given the costs of launching with an Ariane (assuming EU will want EU satellites to launch with ESA assets), economically, it seems cheaper to go the GEO route. They probably can take an existing satellite bus (Like a Eurostar?) instead of developing a brand new one designed to be deployed as a constellation (low volume, high density satellites)
Low latency.  The latency problem alone renders GSO-based satellite internet nearly unusable for modern applications by any account I've heard.

Offline woods170

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Hopefully that does not mean they will outlaw Starlink to make their own offering competitive. I would not be surprised by such an action.
The European Union (EU) cannot actually do that without violating its own laws and laws of many of its member states.

For example, the EU has its own navigation system (Galileo) but it cannot force EU citizens or companies to exclusively use Galileo instead of GPS. Reason: both EU laws and the constitution of most EU countries prohibit this.

Same for an EU version of Starlink.
« Last Edit: 12/17/2020 04:14 pm by woods170 »

Offline woods170

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Europe, most particularly France, is in the throes of a populist "sovereignty" psychodrama.
<snip>

Sovereighnty is something the EU has been promoting for a long time (many decades in fact). It is what led to Ariane series of rockets. It's what led to EUMETSAT and the Meteosat series of weather satellites. It's what lead to the Galileo navigation constellation. It's what led to European development of comsats, starting with OTS and Olympus. It's what lead to the Copernicus programs Sentinel series of Earth observation satellites.

There is no "psychodrama" here. It is simply the EU and ESA making sure they are not totally dependent on others such as the USA or Russia or China.

Being totally dependent on others never has been a good thing.

The EU wanting its own version of Starlink is no different from the USA wanting its own capability to fly astronauts to the ISS or China wanting its own capability to robotically explore Mars.

"Psychodrama"? Hardly....
« Last Edit: 12/17/2020 04:07 pm by woods170 »

Offline Darkseraph

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Constellations like this might give more incentive for Europe to develop a reusable launch vehicle in this decade. Europe's argument that reusable vehicles don't make sense for less than a dozen launches a year makes sense with conventional payloads we've been used to: GEO commsats, a few Science missions. Europe doesn't currently have as many payloads to spread launch costs among as the US does, such as DoD missions and crew delivery.  But large constellations for many different applications changes this.

Hopefully they speed up efforts in this and bring Ariane 7 forward, as large amounts of cheap launch capacity from multiple providers will accelerate human presence and economic activity in space, creating a virtuous cycle.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline woods170

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Internet for isolated communities? In Europe?
We are 3 times more densly populated than the USA.

Please don't waste my money on that and better spend that money on rolling out Fibre optics faster

Don't assume  average density = density everywhere. Europe has large, thinly populated areas in e.g. Sweden, Norway, Finland, Spain, France. Isolated communities on a large number of small islands.

Spain for example has put in place very strong, pluripartisan fiber-tending programs, including through rural or non-profitable areas, that make its data ground infrastructure the most developed in Europe (more FTTH than France, Italy, Germany and UK combined, at 80.4% of connected homes, the perspective to reach >90% in one year's time, and 100% including rural communities in 2025), one of the best in the world - in spite of the large swaths of territory that are sparsely populated and the off-mainland archipielagos.

It would be against its interests and investments to strongly support maintenance-intenstive, non-resilient megaconstellations instead of the more robust ground technology it has become a forefront player on. 'Of course, if Spain can do this, most mid-sized countries with a reasonably large economy can too.

A good review (in Spanish): https://www.xataka.com/otros/estado-conexion-fibra-espana-2020-cobertura-actual-planes-operadoras-para-proximos-anos

Emphasis mine.

Yes, they probably could.
Question is: will they?
Answer: likely not IMO.

Please don't make the mistake of thinking that Spanish national priorities (fiber for everyone) are similar to, say, Dutch or Polish national priorities.

Many of the EU programs are voluntary. Those EU member states who participate must fund it and will enjoy the benefits. Those EU member states who decline to participate are not obliged to fund it, but they will also not benefit from it.
« Last Edit: 12/17/2020 04:17 pm by woods170 »

Offline freddo411

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This is disappointing. Starlink is inherently global and  could serve  Europe extremely well.

Yes, but the euros would be heading to the US instead of Europe and it would be at the whim of US political interference. The EU can easily afford its own system (its GDP is only 9% less than the US) so that it too can provide a global system that would also serve the US extremely well. :-)

Any European system would probably arrive about 30 years after starlink, and would never arrive unless some other party built one first

I’m extremely happy to send my dollars to Europe to buy Italian cheese, French wine, German engineered cars and so forth.  Trade is good for everybody




Offline Phil Stooke

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And you just can't have too many mega-constellations.

Offline M.E.T.

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This is the launch business all over again, with maybe two thirds of the market inaccessible to the cheapest operator simply because each major power wants its own launcher, however inefficient.

Starlink could be the cheapest service by a long shot and yet still have to deal with inefficient competitors propped up by hapless taxpayer Pounds/Euros, long after they should have been taken off life support (looking at you, Oneweb).

Sigh.

Offline Asteroza

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EU still has the fig leaf of needing a true global megaconstellation, rather than something focusing on the continental european latitudes and longitudes, due to overseas territories all over the world. If it was just continental europe, you could cheat with interesting orbits to get the constellation numbers down.

Offline RonM

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And you just can't have too many mega-constellations.

I don't know, it could get crowded up there.

Offline high road

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Is wanting something because the neighbors have it the way things are now? Maybe be motivated by what your populace needs and not by the need to prove something.

That's a funny thing to say on a spaceflight forum.

Looking forward to ESA astronomers complaining about European megaconstellations corrupting their data, and bad communication when satellites are on a collision course ::)
« Last Edit: 12/18/2020 08:04 am by high road »

Offline eeergo

Is wanting something because the neighbors have it the way things are now? Maybe be motivated by what your populace needs and not by the need to prove something.

That's a funny thing to say on a spaceflight forum.

Looking forward to ESA astronomers complaining about European megaconstellations corrupting their data, and bad communication when satellites are on a collision course ::)

Difficult to complain when there isn't even a conceptual design available. You'll find my comment about what I think of megaconstellation systems a few posts upthread and in other areas.
-DaviD-

Offline high road

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I was referring to strong anti-megaconstellation feelings that are apparently quite widespread among ESA-astronomers according to a friend of a friend there, and ESA's very public calling out of SpaceX not being responsive when ESA had to move one of their satellites to avoid a collision with a SpaceX satellite.  ;)

Offline woods170

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I was referring to strong anti-megaconstellation feelings that are apparently quite widespread among ESA-astronomers according to a friend of a friend there, and ESA's very public calling out of SpaceX not being responsive when ESA had to move one of their satellites to avoid a collision with a SpaceX satellite.  ;)

To be fair, it is not just European and ESA astronomers who have strong anti-megaconstellation feelings. Some of the most vocal opponents are among USA astronomers.

Offline saliva_sweet

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This is not about connecting hermits and robinsons with fast internet. It's about strategic/military capabilities. Once the intersattellite link tech is up we are headed for a unipolar world. The US is close to capability to dogfight with UAV-s on the other side of the globe and missiles can be directly piloted. Also google earth with live video instead of static imagery. EU doesn't like it and cost is not a factor.

Offline DreamyPickle

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It is not clear why the EU needs its own LEO satellite constellation when it seems that multiple commercial options will exist. It seems more like a prestige project than a necessity.

If they foresee a situation in which US, UK and China would all deny them satellite services then just what is the EU planning?

Offline Frogstar_Robot

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In the past, the marker for national prestige in the civilian technology field was a national airline, or a nuclear power plant. Now it is a presence in the space sector, whether launch vehicle, space station, GNSS, satcoms etc.

It might not make sense from an engineering POV to re-invent the wheel, but that is not the purpose for these prestige projects.
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Offline high road

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I was referring to strong anti-megaconstellation feelings that are apparently quite widespread among ESA-astronomers according to a friend of a friend there, and ESA's very public calling out of SpaceX not being responsive when ESA had to move one of their satellites to avoid a collision with a SpaceX satellite.  ;)

To be fair, it is not just European and ESA astronomers who have strong anti-megaconstellation feelings. Some of the most vocal opponents are among USA astronomers.

I know. But up to this point, most of their ire has been focused on the private sector. Now it'll be pretty much their colleagues, getting funding from the same goverments and leveraging ESA services.

Offline edzieba

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and ESA's very public calling out of SpaceX not being responsive when ESA had to move one of their satellites to avoid a collision with a SpaceX satellite.  ;)
You mean the ESA thanking SpaceX for their response*, while simultaneously using it as a point to emphasise the need for a global platform for communicating conjunctions and collaborating on avoidance (rather than the current non-mechanism of 'erm, send them an email, or maybe a fax?')?
The ESA only pointed the finger of blame within the minds of tabloid headline writers, not in reality.

*
Quote
Contact with Starlink early in the process allowed ESA to take conflict-free action later, knowing the second spacecraft would remain where models expected it to be. [...] “No one was at fault here, but this example does show the urgent need for proper space traffic management, with clear communication protocols and more automation,”

Offline su27k

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European space and digital players to study build of EU’s satellite-based connectivity system

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Brussels, 23 December 2020 - The European Commission has selected a consortium of European satellite manufacturers, operators and service providers, telco operators and launch service providers to study the design, development and launch of a European-owned space-based communication system.

The study will assess the feasibility of a new initiative aiming to strengthen European digital sovereignty and provide secure connectivity for citizens, commercial enterprises and public institutions as well as providing global coverage for rural and ‘not-spot’ areas. Complementing Copernicus and Galileo, this new EU flagship programme, once given the green light, would fully exploit the synergies of the technological potential akin to the Digital and Space industries. The contract value of the year-long feasibility study amounts to € 7.1 million.

The European space-based connectivity system, advocated by Commissioner Breton, is set to provide secure communication services to the EU and its Member States as well as broadband connectivity for European citizens, companies and mobility sectors, strengthening EU digital sovereignty. It will build upon  the European Union’s GOVSATCOM programme of pooling and sharing satellite services, and will ensure a high level of reliability, resilience and security not currently available in the market; it will also leverage the EuroQCI initiative that promotes innovative quantum scamgraphy technology.

More specifically, the study phase awarded by the European Commission will consolidate the user and mission requirements and provide a preliminary architectural design and service provision concept, as well as associated budgetary estimates. A Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme will be considered and assessed during this phase.

The study will look at how the space-based system could enhance and connect to current and future critical  infrastructures, including terrestrial networks, strengthening EU capability to access the cloud and providing digital services in an independent and secure way, which is essential for building confidence in the digital economy and ensuring European strategic autonomy and resilience.

It will leverage and strengthen the role of satellites in the 5G ecosystem, assessing interoperability whilst also taking into account the evolution towards upcoming 6G technologies.

This European sovereign infrastructure is set to benefit a large range of sectors, including road and maritime transport, air traffic and control, autonomous vehicle development as well as many Internet of Things (IoT) applications. It is intended to offer enhanced security in the transmission and storage of information and data supporting the needs of various users such as governmental agencies, finance & banking companies, science networks, critical infrastructures and data centres.

The consortium members are: Airbus, Arianespace, Eutelsat, Hispasat, OHB, Orange, SES, Telespazio and Thales Alenia Space.

@AirbusSpace @Arianespace @EU_Commission @Eutelsat_SA @Hispasat @OHB_SE @orange @SES_satellites @telespazio @Thales_Alenia_S

Offline Lar

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It would be against its interests and investments to strongly support maintenance-intenstive, non-resilient megaconstellations instead of the more robust ground technology it has become a forefront player on. Of course, if Spain can do this, most mid-sized countries with a reasonably large economy can too.
Satellites (launched from one place, and self deorbiting when not working properly) and isolated (but essentially single design and made in mass quantities)  ground stations are maintenance intensive, and fixed fiber running in a myriad different directions is *not* maintenance intensive?

That seems counterintuitive, so please justify that if you would.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Lar

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Easy to say living from moeny from the western EU.

The money (printed paper) flows from the metrpolis to periphery. While the resources to sustain the metropolis come from the periphery. So please don't feel so smug. EU is not a charity project.
Maybe it's just me but the general state of the EU, whether it's charity, who funds what, etc... political. We don't do general politics.

Some posts trimmed. Don't make me lock this thread.
« Last Edit: 12/28/2020 04:46 am by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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The UK and the EU could do a deal made in heaven. The UK gives the EU a stake and access to OneWeb while the EU gives the UK a stake and access to Galileo.
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline eeergo

It would be against its interests and investments to strongly support maintenance-intenstive, non-resilient megaconstellations instead of the more robust ground technology it has become a forefront player on. Of course, if Spain can do this, most mid-sized countries with a reasonably large economy can too.

Satellites (launched from one place, and self deorbiting when not working properly) and isolated (but essentially single design and made in mass quantities) ground stations are maintenance intensive, and fixed fiber running in a myriad different directions is *not* maintenance intensive?

That seems counterintuitive, so please justify that if you would.

Let's consider, in this case, the comms package and associated infrastructure (both in-space and ground) in both systems to be roughly equal in intrinsic complexity and need for maintenance intensity.

Caveat: This is quite possibly not the case, with the space segment requiring extra safeguards and self-sufficiency, while on the other hand somewhat balanced by doing away with the large amount of transmission medium needed for fiber - but given it would be difficult to compare everything apples-to-apples in such extensive systems without getting too bogged down, let's give space-bound systems some advantage in the reasoning.

With this presumption in mind, it seems intuitive the system that can fail in a more "finely quantized" way -be it because of earlier fault detection, easier component replacement, swifter access preventing cascading effects- will be less maintenance-intensive.

Also, it is notoriously in megaconstellations' DNA to consider individual assets as inherently-disposable and/or replaceable (be it to favor upgradeability, to provide flexibility, allow for cheap production or whatever reason), which implies a need for constant, intensive constellation maintenance. The routing and cross-country subsystems in fiber are much more passive and modular. Hubs/ground-segments OTOH would be similarly very/little maintenance-intensive in both systems, to first approximation.
-DaviD-

Offline Star One

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The UK and the EU could do a deal made in heaven. The UK gives the EU a stake and access to OneWeb while the EU gives the UK a stake and access to Galileo.
That’s too logical for either side I expect.

Offline Rik ISS-fan

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The UK and the EU could do a deal made in heaven. The UK gives the EU a stake and access to OneWeb while the EU gives the UK a stake and access to Galileo.
That’s too logical for either side I expect.
I expect the UK would say 'NO!" because they can get acces to Gallileo, but they can't get a say in how it's operated/ can't build and develop encrypted receivers.
But the EU could also invest in the Oneweb constellation diluting the UK interest in it, if permitted. AFAIK oneweb still needs several billions in funding.
But I'm against LEO consat constallations expecially when they go over 1000 satellites.

Offline Stealthsub

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It seems that SpaceX and OneWeb chose orbital height & inclination, that were optimal for their LEO megaconstellations.
What if in the future other countries or companies wanted to place their megaconstellations at exact same orbital height & inclination. Chance of collisions wouldn't be longer negligible, risk of creating space debris higher, concerns of astronomers potentially unsolvable.   

SpaceX have only 5 years before it will need to start replacing first launched Starlinks. What articles of international law can other countries and companies use in the future, to force them limit number of ST at exact orbital height & inclination and share it with their constellations.
« Last Edit: 01/01/2021 01:21 pm by Stealthsub »

Offline DreamyPickle

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It seems that SpaceX and OneWeb chose orbital height & inclination, that were optimal for their LEO megaconstellations.
What if in the future other countries or companies wanted to place their megaconstellations at exact same orbital height & inclination.
Maybe operators could publish their orbits and maneuvering plans and build a system of automatic active collision avoidance? It's not clear what the upper limit is on the number of LEO satellites but it could be extremely high.

Quote
SpaceX have only 5 years before it will need to start replacing first launched Starlinks. What articles of international law can other countries and companies use in the future, to force them limit number of ST at exact orbital height & inclination and share it with their constellations.
The US government is responsible for all launches from its territory including any harmful interference. I don't think any international treaties provide for numerical limits on satellites. Since all space-faring powers seem to be planning mega-constellations a legal challenge to mega-constellations is not very likely at all.

A cooperative treaty on debris mitigation would be very useful, most of what we have is optional guidelines. The outer-space treaty is very old and primarily concerned with controlling nuclear weapons in the context of the Cold War, not economic activity.

Offline ZachF

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They better get started yesterday on a fully reusable system then, if they want even a small hope of succeeding. Ariane 6 won't cut it if SpaceX can launch more tonnage to orbit per year for a couple hundred million than the entire European launch industry has over its total existence to date.
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Offline edzieba

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They better get started yesterday on a fully reusable system then, if they want even a small hope of succeeding. Ariane 6 won't cut it if SpaceX can launch more tonnage to orbit per year for a couple hundred million than the entire European launch industry has over its total existence to date.
Not necessarily, for the same reason Ariane or Proton didn't kill off Atlas or Delta: the requirements for maintaining domestic competence ('do we have the knowledge and infrastructure to build and launch a carrier rocket?') and capability ('can we launch satellites without being beholden to any other nation who may suddenly decide not to launch our satellites?') can outweigh pure launch cost.

Offline ZachF

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They better get started yesterday on a fully reusable system then, if they want even a small hope of succeeding. Ariane 6 won't cut it if SpaceX can launch more tonnage to orbit per year for a couple hundred million than the entire European launch industry has over its total existence to date.
Not necessarily, for the same reason Ariane or Proton didn't kill off Atlas or Delta: the requirements for maintaining domestic competence ('do we have the knowledge and infrastructure to build and launch a carrier rocket?') and capability ('can we launch satellites without being beholden to any other nation who may suddenly decide not to launch our satellites?') can outweigh pure launch cost.

The point that I feel many are missing, is that what it means to have "Independent access" is going to change so drastically with the introduction of reusable launch vehicles, that the current strategy of ensuring independent access is actually going to create the *opposite* effect.

Does Europe really have independent access if their domestic launch industry is only capable of literally  1/100th that of the United States which only has a slightly larger economy? The United states will have capabilities Europe can only dream of if it continues to pursue it's current path.

That's why I'm saying they need to start on a reusable system now. What they are doing now is essentially dumping money into the manufacturing capability for rotary landline phones when their competitors make iPhones that cost 1/10th the price. All that money going into preserving rotary landline phones is actually producing the opposite effect.

The difference in capability between something like starship and the Ariane 6 isnt comparable to Proton. Not even a little bit. I'm not even being hyperbolic when I say that SpaceX could be launching more Starlink satellites  per year in tonnage terms than every single payload the european launch industry has ever launched in its existence combined... and it can do that for the cost equivalent  of like 1-3 flights of Ariane 6!!! Expendables cannot compete, even with the government pushing their fingers on the scale. The performance delta is just *that* huge.
« Last Edit: 01/12/2021 05:26 pm by ZachF »
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Offline Rik ISS-fan

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An European alternative for the Starlink Network, aka an European LEO ComSat constellation. For high rate data connection at rural area's.
Launch requirement for deploying and maintaining a LEO ComSat constellation vary with:
- number of satellites that form the constellation.
- Size/ mass of the satellites. The number of satellites per launch.
- Lifetime (/duration of use) of the satellites.

Let's take the European Gallileo GNSS constellation as example.
It's formed by 24 satellites, three 23 222km 56deg. orbits with 8 satellites. The satellites are designed for 12 year usage. And they can be launched in pairs (Soyuz/A62) or with four at once (A5ES/A62+IOS). So to maintain the Galileo constellation the EU needs 6 to 12 launches in 12 years. (0,5 - 1 launch a year)

Now let's compare different LEO Comsat constellations.   
 
Two LEO ComSat constellations are in buildup phase; (I couldn't find the lifetimes)
- SpaceX Starlink  1440 (-12k) sats, 60 on a Falcon 9 launch. (24 launches) 
- and OneWeb ~640 (-1980 6372) sats., 32-36 on Soyuz 2.1B Fregat-M launches. (19 launches)
There are several other proposals:
- Boeing  1396 - 2956 sats
- Amazon Project Kuiper  1236 sats
- (Canada) Telesat LEO 298 (117 - 512) sats
- (China) Hongyun  320 - 864 sats
- (China) Hongyan  156 sats
- LeoSat [abandoned] 78 - 108 sats
So the sizes of LEO ComSat constellations very hugely. (Also because the sizes of the satellites vary a lot.)
SpaceX Starlink uses the most satellites for it's system. In my opinion the fewer satellites required for the constellation the better, because lower collision risk and fewer data routing changes required.
I also think longer utilization durations are beter (10-15y instead of ~5y), because this reduces the cost of the constellation. Also for system affordability you want to pack as many satellites as possible on each launch.
So if Europe/the EU thinks more into the Telesat / LeoSat direction than the starlink direction, the launch requirement might not be that high.

AFAIK the current launch rate from CSG is limited by range availability. With Ariane 6 the limit will be on P120C casting capability, that's limited to 35 annually. That's for both Vega C/E and Ariane 6. In a very high launch rate scenario, I expect 5x Vega C/E and up to 15x Ariane 62. ESA/ArianeGroup planned for roughly 11x A6 annually. But I think most production can be increased when launch demand requires it (from 11 to 15 annually).
Though more expansive than a reusable launcher, launch capability wise it suffices. With this in mind a European LEO ComSat constellation will most likely have higher cost, but it can distinguish itself by being European (aka NOT USA), and higher quality.
For many developments if the desire to develop it is high enough, it will succeed eventually. AFAIK, in Europe technology isn't the problem.

Edit to add: There is also an EuroNews article (with video)
Brussels bids to boost Europe's connectivity with 600 low-orbit satellites

I think this is part of the EU Space Program, SSA and GovSatCom program (€442 million between 2021 to 2027)
« Last Edit: 01/14/2021 10:07 pm by Rik ISS-fan »

Offline su27k

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EU must 'move at speed' on space broadband network

Quote
"From the first idea about Galileo through to the first operational service in Europe, it has taken 20 years; we don't have 20 years [for this new project]," observed Jean-Marc Nasr, the head of Airbus Space Systems, which leads the feasibility consortium.

"Speed is of the essence here. The idea of the European space infrastructure has been on the table since early 2020. We cannot have the first service in 2040. If we do that, we are dead.

"We have to have the service operational at the end of this decade at the latest. And this requires all of us to work as a team to deliver the best competitive service and technical background to Europe."

Offline su27k

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Some progress on this: Europe making progress on sovereign LEO constellation as OneWeb and Starlink race ahead

Quote
The industry consortium devising a satellite network to keep the European Union from falling too far behind the megaconstellation goldrush is weeks away from nailing down key criteria.

The group has already made initial proposals on elements including frequency and orbital characteristics, according to Dominic Hayes, frequency manager for the EU space program at the European Commission’s Defence Industry and Space (DEFIS) department.

“They’re presenting those as firm deliverables in the course of the next few weeks,” Hayes told SATELLITE 2021’s EMEA + Asia Digital Forum May 18.


And some food fights: EU questions Eutelsat for taking stake in OneWeb

Quote
Eutelsat has jeopardised its involvement in a new EU space-based internet service by investing alongside the UK government in the satellite broadband company, OneWeb, the EU’s internal market commissioner has warned.

“We took good note of their decision to participate in a project that is in direct competition with the European initiative. I do not see how, structurally, an entity can have stakes in two competing projects,” said Thierry Breton, who also oversees the European Commission’s tech policy, at the launch of the European Union Agency for the Space Programme (EUSPA).

The new EU constellation was “absolutely critical for our autonomy, for our sovereignty, for our future. So, we will not compromise,” he added.


Offline Craftyatom

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And some food fights: EU questions Eutelsat for taking stake in OneWeb

SpaceNews just ran an article on this (using some of the same quotes), and it includes a brief mention of the ongoing design studies:
Quote from: SpaceNews
[Thierry Breton, EU commissioner] suggested he was unhappy with the industry group’s progress on the satellite communications study. “To tell you the truth, it was very interesting, it was important, but not too innovative,” he said of the first results from that effort. He said the EU will commission a second study involving smaller businesses and startups, rather that the larger companies involved in the first one. They will provide a report within two months.
All aboard the HSF hype train!  Choo Choo!

Offline su27k

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French Space Command: Europe must react to U.S., Chinese constellations’ land grab in low Earth orbit

Quote
The head of France’s Space Command appeared to endorse the European Commission’s proposal for a mega-constellation of satellites in low Earth orbit to preserve spectrum and orbital-slot rights in the face of U.S. and Chinese advances.

Gen. Michel Friedling acknowledged that the business models of broadband constellations has yet to be proven. But given the strategic implications, he said, their ultimate profitability, while important, “is not the subject here. It’s sovereignty.”

"It’s sovereignty."? Someone need to re-read the Outer Space Treaty I think....

Offline Hobbes-22

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Not that kind of sovereignty. If megaconstellation satcom becomes essential for governments and business in Europe, the EC doesn't want to be reliant on foreign entities to provide it (and take it away at their whim, as happened with Symphonie).

Offline woods170

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Not that kind of sovereignty. If megaconstellation satcom becomes essential for governments and business in Europe, the EC doesn't want to be reliant on foreign entities to provide it (and take it away at their whim, as happened with Symphonie).

I hope you realise that is one heck of a major IF, given that land-based internet-access structure in Europe (including Scandinavia) is generally better than most other regions on the planet (the exceptions being Japan and South Korea).

The currently leading mega constellation is not government owned. Unlike governments SpaceX would not have a motivation to take away Starlink at their whim. It would kill their business model for going to Mars. Starlink is pretty much guaranteed to stay for a very long time.

Same for Kuiper: owned by a private entity, not government. And thus no motivation to take it away for no good reason (assuming it becomes successful).

A Chinese mega constellation will be focused primariy on China and its direct allies. Much like how Beidou is structured. So, won't be available in Europe anyway.


OneWeb is now partially owned by the UK government. Its service could potentially be denied to EU for political reasons (Brexit fall-out).
« Last Edit: 06/23/2021 08:23 am by woods170 »

Offline DreamyPickle

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This is one of the EU's dumber ideas, particularly all the chest thumping regarding "sovereignty".

The real purpose of this project is to generate demand for Ariane 6 which is otherwise never going to reach the commercial relevance that Ariane 5 once had.

Also: thread does not belong in "Commercial Space" since there is nothing commercial about this: it's a state funded idea with motivations that are entirely political.

Offline dondar

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and ESA's very public calling out of SpaceX not being responsive when ESA had to move one of their satellites to avoid a collision with a SpaceX satellite.  ;)
You mean the ESA thanking SpaceX for their response*, while simultaneously using it as a point to emphasise the need for a global platform for communicating conjunctions and collaborating on avoidance (rather than the current non-mechanism of 'erm, send them an email, or maybe a fax?')?
The ESA only pointed the finger of blame within the minds of tabloid headline writers, not in reality.

*
Quote
Contact with Starlink early in the process allowed ESA to take conflict-free action later, knowing the second spacecraft would remain where models expected it to be. [...] “No one was at fault here, but this example does show the urgent need for proper space traffic management, with clear communication protocols and more automation,”
this is the German part of ESA. They are generally quite positive toward SpaceX. The British were extremely vocal on twitter and had initiated "tabloids" wave.

Offline alanr74

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I think this is all pie in the sky really.

OneWeb will take any "sovereign" European need in the next two years, before anything is even manufactured for the EU.

It all smells of "we want one to" by the EU and the states will end up funding it.

Europe has good infrastructure as it is and with OneWeb concentrating on just being a backend supplier, with individual states using trusted national suppliers rather than OneWeb, governments have the security they need with an existing European LEO.

I imagine going forward the EU will need some military communications satellites for its own army but that's putting the cart before the horse.
« Last Edit: 06/28/2021 07:13 pm by alanr74 »

Offline edzieba

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this is the German part of ESA. They are generally quite positive toward SpaceX. The British were extremely vocal on twitter and had initiated "tabloids" wave.
British tabloids being what they are, if you assume whatever they report is the polar opposite of what has happened then you will do better than average on having an accurate picture of reality. They usefully report news in the same way a clock painted on the wall tells the correct time twice a day.
Think of them as a mean-spirited Weekly World News.
Europe has good infrastructure as it is
Cities and dense urban areas may have good network infrastructure (but not necessarily, digging up old cities to install fibre without poking through old but still in use infrastructure is no easy task). But more rural areas - and Europe is large, that's a lot of area - are well served... by copper POTS lines that may still be the original ones installed in the late 1800s/early 1900s, or if you're very lucky just post WWII. Some of these may be adequate for gen 1 ADSL, but many may still be limited to dialup. The issues of running fibre to these locations are the same as in the US. End-user costs may be much lower across most of Europe due to greater competition, but the issues of last-mile rollout remain the same as in the US.
Plus there's the dual-duty of a global satellite network for shared military use. GOVSATCOM is already in the works (EU equivalent of the WGS collaboration), combining this with global internet availability may reduce system costs, or allow more robust coverage (e.g. if you can afford X satellites for military communications, Y satellites for emergency services communications, and Z satellites for consumer internet, you can combine them to an X+Y+Z sized constellation if you can get everyone to agree on requirements). GOVSATCOM is for all individual member nations to use, not for some notional 'EU army'.
The US DoD is also looking at using Starlink for data transfer (gov data over private PHY layer), this would be analogous but the other way around (private comms over gov PHY). While "but governments aren't allowed to compete with private providers!" may be an ideological issue, it is not a practical one.

Offline su27k

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https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1417442539137867790

Quote
EU Commission @defis_eu issues RFP to NewSpace co's for ideas on future secure comms/QKD/brdbnd constellation. Sept 10 bid deadline; 2 winners to get EUR 1.4M ($1.65M) each for 6-month study, to include satellite, launch cost estimates. @DigitalEU @esa https://bit.ly/3BwKpPA

Offline SweetWater

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https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1417442539137867790

Quote
EU Commission @defis_eu issues RFP to NewSpace co's for ideas on future secure comms/QKD/brdbnd constellation. Sept 10 bid deadline; 2 winners to get EUR 1.4M ($1.65M) each for 6-month study, to include satellite, launch cost estimates. @DigitalEU @esa https://bit.ly/3BwKpPA

Does anyone have a ballpark estimate on the number of Starlink satellites that will be on orbit by March 2022 (when this 6-month study would end, if awarded on Sept 10)?

Offline su27k

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Europe’s satellite dreams risk being lost in space

Quote from: telegraph
There could be another thorn in the Commission’s plan. While Breton has disowned Eutelsat and its investment in OneWeb, the UK firm has been eyeing Europe’s plans.

The operator’s biggest backer, Indian billionaire Sunil Mittal of Bharti Global, is understood to have written to the European Commission expressing an interest in collaborating on the EU constellation.

Project sources believe the EU wants a “sovereign” capability and any involvement from OneWeb is likely to be “difficult”.

Offline RoadWithoutEnd

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"European politicians and industrial elites want an alternative to Starlink that they can control, even if it comes at a hefty premium to European consumers."

That's the real headline.
Walk the road without end, and all tomorrows unfold like music.

Offline Rebel44

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IMO, the whole thing is a dumb PowerPoint project that will never actually be built.

Offline spacenut

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Without reusable F9 rockets and future reusable Starships, building an alternative network will be quite expensive.  Launch costs from other launch providers would have to come down. 

Starlink just has a very good head start, by several years. 

Offline edzieba

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Without reusable F9 rockets and future reusable Starships, building an alternative network will be quite expensive.  Launch costs from other launch providers would have to come down.
It does solve the chicken-and-egg issue for developing a re-usable Ariane: a reusable Ariane that launches a handful of times per year cannot support the development costs and ongoing support (e.g. you can't employ a standing army to manufacture more vehicles when they only need to make one every few years, but if you fire them and close the facility then you have no fallback on loss of a vehicle) without ballooning launch costs to match expendable vehicles, but you can't launch tens to hundreds of times per year to bring the costs down if there is no demand, and there is no demand if the costs are not brought down. A constellation manufactures your own demand for a high flight rate, which justifies a re-usable launcher.

Offline libra

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Without reusable F9 rockets and future reusable Starships, building an alternative network will be quite expensive.  Launch costs from other launch providers would have to come down.
It does solve the chicken-and-egg issue for developing a re-usable Ariane: a reusable Ariane that launches a handful of times per year cannot support the development costs and ongoing support (e.g. you can't employ a standing army to manufacture more vehicles when they only need to make one every few years, but if you fire them and close the facility then you have no fallback on loss of a vehicle) without ballooning launch costs to match expendable vehicles, but you can't launch tens to hundreds of times per year to bring the costs down if there is no demand, and there is no demand if the costs are not brought down. A constellation manufactures your own demand for a high flight rate, which justifies a re-usable launcher.

Musk is creating his own "reusability flight rate killer app" with Starlink. 42 000 satellites to launch - plenty enough to keep F9 and Starship busy for a very long time.

Offline geekesq

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Musk is creating his own "reusability flight rate killer app" with Starlink. 42 000 satellites to launch - plenty enough to keep F9 and Starship busy for a very long time.
Plus there will be a constant need to replace satellites as they fail or become obsolete.
So there will never be an end to Starlink launches, until (if ever) something better supercedes the entire LEO satcom paradigm.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Without reusable F9 rockets and future reusable Starships, building an alternative network will be quite expensive.  Launch costs from other launch providers would have to come down. 
....


Then Europe will have to book passage on Starships to deployed their LEO constellation. Which will reduce the cost and tme needed deploying a LEO constellation. There is really no affordable alternate launch options.

Offline daedalus1

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The best the EU can do is give the UK unrestricted access to Galileo in exchange for unrestricted access to Oneweb. That way the whole of Europe wins.

Offline edzieba

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The best the EU can do is give the UK unrestricted access to Galileo in exchange for unrestricted access to Oneweb. That way the whole of Europe wins.
Like with launch vehicles, that's a sovereignty rather than a technical issue (same reason why Galileo exists in the first place rather than 'just use GPS', why EDRS exists rather than 'just use TDRS', why CRS exists rather than 'just use Soyuz', etc).
« Last Edit: 08/10/2021 10:30 am by edzieba »

Offline daedalus1

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The best the EU can do is give the UK unrestricted access to Galileo in exchange for unrestricted access to Oneweb. That way the whole of Europe wins.
Like with launch vehicles, that's a sovereignty rather than a technical issue (same reason why Galileo exists in the first place rather than 'just use GPS', why EDRS exists rather than 'just use TDRS', why CRS exists rather than 'just use Soyuz', etc).

Not sure that you are agreeing with me or not.
Nevertheless it is a European win/win with little extra cost. UK doesn't have to reinvest in GPS system and EU doesn't have to launch thousands of broadband satellites on a not so cheap Ariane 6.

Offline edzieba

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The reason the UK has been excluded from the PRS segment is a sovereignty issue, not a technical one. Likewise, the reason the EU wants a domestically owned and operated communications network is a sovereignty requirement, not a technical one.

Offline daedalus1

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The reason the UK has been excluded from the PRS segment is a sovereignty issue, not a technical one. Likewise, the reason the EU wants a domestically owned and operated communications network is a sovereignty requirement, not a technical one.

Yes I'm aware of that (I didn't say it was a technical issue, only a cost issue). But there is a mutual advantage of you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours, so to speak, in the interests of European independence.

Offline su27k

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EU Commission, facing budget, schedule issues, willing to consider buying stake in non-EU broadband constellation

Quote from: spaceintelreport.com
The European Commission, heading off the possibility that it will have neither the funds nor the expertise to manage a constellation of broadband/quantum communications satellites, has asked industry to assess less-costly alternatives.

Options the Commission will assess include purchasing a minority stake in a non-EU constellation already being built. This capacity would later be supplemented by EU infrastructure.

Offline JCRM

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Offline su27k

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Europe awards study contract for disruptive satellite constellation ideas

Quote from: SpaceNews
A consortium of more than 20 European space companies said Dec. 8 it won a six-month contract to study disruptive ideas for Europe’s planned satellite broadband constellation.

The contract from the European Commission is worth 1.4 million euros ($1.6 million) and was awarded to New Symphonie, a consortium led by market intelligence firm Euroconsult and French satellite surveillance startup Unseenlabs.

New Symphonie aims to investigate and recommend the most optimal infrastructure for Europe’s sovereign multi-orbit connectivity vision, drawing on new business models and capabilities in the emerging space ecosystem.

Offline alanr74

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Looks like they have 2 successful bids now. I can't imagine how quickly they can go from this stage to having a network up and running.
https://www.satellitetoday.com/government-military/2021/12/13/two-consortiums-to-explore-future-european-satellite-constellation/
Quote
Explore Future European Satellite Constellation

By Rachel Jewett | December 13, 2021
Europe
European Union EU FlagThe European Commission has selected two consortiums of European space companies for initial study on a future European satellite constellation. A consortium called New Symphonie, led by Unseenlabs and Euroconsult, was announced Dec. 8. A second consortium, UN:IO, led by Mynaric, Isar Aerospace, and Reflex Aerospace was announced Monday.

 
It seems dead in the water now the UK is talking about gen2 OneWeb satellites being built in the UK by 2024, and airbus & oneweb moving into military markets in Europe. 


« Last Edit: 12/17/2021 05:38 pm by alanr74 »

Offline JCRM

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The UK builds a lot of satellites, it's one of their strengths.

This scheme allows EU counties to pump money into their companies, which will result in them having a more competitive spacecraft capability.

Online Kiwi53

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IMO this horse has well and truly left the stable, no point in locking the door now.

If the EU wants to get into the LEO Internet business, they have at best two realistic choices:
 * Buy a major chunk of OneWeb through some EU organisation - this is a good bet, but would seriously annoy the "England must pay for Brexit" faction; or
 * Buy into Kuiper - this is risky as Kuiper may never be a viable product being late to market and lacking obvious ways to launch enough satellites to satisfy their ITU "50% in orbit" commitment.

Offline TrevorMonty



IMO this horse has well and truly left the stable, no point in locking the door now.

If the EU wants to get into the LEO Internet business, they have at best two realistic choices:
 * Buy a major chunk of OneWeb through some EU organisation - this is a good bet, but would seriously annoy the "England must pay for Brexit" faction; or
 * Buy into Kuiper - this is risky as Kuiper may never be a viable product being late to market and lacking obvious ways to launch enough satellites to satisfy their ITU "50% in orbit" commitment.

Amazon will be happy to sign EU as customer but with $85B of cash reserves they don't need them as investor, . For Amazon Kuiper is strategic invest, more about AWS data security than making money off subscribers in remote locals. That doesn't mean they don't want those subscribers to help pay bills.

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Offline Robotical

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IMO this horse has well and truly left the stable, no point in locking the door now.

If the EU wants to get into the LEO Internet business, they have at best two realistic choices:
 * Buy a major chunk of OneWeb through some EU organisation - this is a good bet, but would seriously annoy the "England must pay for Brexit" faction; or
 * Buy into Kuiper - this is risky as Kuiper may never be a viable product being late to market and lacking obvious ways to launch enough satellites to satisfy their ITU "50% in orbit" commitment.

Amazon will be happy to sign EU as customer but with $85B of cash reserves they don't need them as investor, . For Amazon Kuiper is strategic invest, more about AWS data security than making money off subscribers in remote locals. That doesn't mean they don't want those subscribers to help pay bills.

Sent from my SM-T733 using Tapatalk

If the EU is worried about Starlink because of sovereignty concerns, becoming a customer of a different American company doesn't really help them.

Offline savantu

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There's a thing called coopetition - cooperative competition. Europe has no alternatives to Starlink. No amount of money thrown at ESA/Airbus/You name it could provide a global satellite internet network that could compete with Starlink on merits. Even Oneweb retreated from mass market to specialty market. Pretty soon it will be bankrupt again.

So why not join Starlink ? Ask Spx for the Starlink II bus and license it. Build 400-600 pcs in Europe and launch it in 2-3 strikes with Starship. Then Ariane 6, Vega whatever could maintain a 400-600pcs network. You don't need more to have a fully functional, global network. In 3 years.

Offline alanr74

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I suspect one of the reasons is going to be the EU can see the strategic element to it. We've seen airbus and oneweb move into EU military hookups, and that is probably a bigger worry now.

They want to be a superpower and everything that comes with it. Critical infrastructure outside their control is a big no no, and as the years pass non EU countries will be excluded from playing a part.


Offline Chris Bergin

Crap thread that descended into kids throwing things in a sandpit. Trimmed and locked.
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