Indonesia Invites SpaceX to Set Up Spaceport

[Robotbeat]

Indonesia would be a fantastic site for launching propellant to high orbit, which is useful for lunar and Martian missions and will, in fact, be the dominant payload once Moon and Mars missions get into high gear. Most launches will be propellant.

[Lars-J]

I don't see this going anywhere, other than wishful thinking.

While there is a payload benefit from launching near the equator, that cost benefit (slightly more to orbit per launch) is:
A) exaggerated, and
B) more than compensated by the extra cost of setting up massive infrastructure at the site, and getting people and payloads to and from the site.

Sure, if they start Point to point flights, sure... But that won't happen anytime soon.

[groundbound]

Sure, if they start Point to point flights, sure... But that won't happen anytime soon.

How else are they going to get all that nickel back to the CONUS to build all those batteries? 

Never mind, don't answer that.

[Zed_Noir]

Sure, if they start Point to point flights, sure... But that won't happen anytime soon.

How else are they going to get all that nickel back to the CONUS to build all those batteries? 
....

You are sadly mistaken. SpaceX will not be sending nickel ore back to CONUS. More likely battery cells by the container loads. One must take advantage of the cheap local labor, easy access to raw materials and welcoming local governments to build a Gigafactory for 4680 batteries cells.

[DistantTemple]

I don't see this going anywhere, other than wishful thinking.

While there is a payload benefit from launching near the equator, that cost benefit (slightly more to orbit per launch) is:
A) exaggerated, and
B) more than compensated by the extra cost of setting up massive infrastructure at the site, and getting people and payloads to and from the site.

Sure, if they start Point to point flights, sure... But that won't happen anytime soon.

Is there a site where SX could routinely BOTH launch towards the East, AND land from orbit from the West! It would need no/low density population in both tracks, not just for risk of a crash, but for sonic booms!
If this is possible it would be a deal breaker... and revolutionary. If further it also allowed higher inclination launches and landings that makes it even better. An isolated island would be good. or a man made island, or an isthmus....

Additionally being able to launch fuel from both BC and Indonesia, would share the preparation and scheduling, but also double (ISTM) the essential orbital refuelling opportunities, making it easier to plan a sequence of orbital rendezvous for refuelling.
Refuelling on an equatorial orbit would be easy, and make that orbit more effective, but inclined orbits would have two daily options for refuelling, one from BC and one from Indonesia.
If incredibly launch was ALSO possible towards the South West, then the same orbit could be reached 12 hours later, meaning Indonesia alone could theoretically launch TWO refuelling trips to an SS in an inclined orbit daily!!!!
Apologies if this has been said upthread... I have read some of it but not all.
Also I am not an expert at orbital mechanics and may have dropped some clangers here.... IST make sense to me!!! 

[Slarty1080]

I can't see anything much happening on this in the short term at least. Mind you I suspect that Musk has made all the right noises without promising anything. He might file it away and dust it off in a few years to see if it works.

[DistantTemple]

I can't see anything much happening on this in the short term at least. Mind you I suspect that Musk has made all the right noises without promising anything. He might file it away and dust it off in a few years to see if it works.

Normally such a plan would be expected to take many years. But this is the Gigafactory man.... who can turn green fields or forest into a working factory in just one year! therefore yes I agree we may not see anything for a coupe of years.
However this very speed and the hoped mars cadence, along with the size of the Starlink constellations, and the rate of production at BC, suggest great strides forward in the next three years. By 2026 SpaceX could seriously NEED a launch complex  that is UNRESTRICTED including launch pads, and landing pads. If they are restricted to BC and 39A, and they have a significant issue with one of them it could seriously disrupt Mars launches and fuelling etc....

Having a look at Indonesia's suitability from 1st principles: the sea is shallow. There are many small islands. there are large gaps in many directions around many islands. There are also undersea islands that could have artificial structures/land built on them. Indonesia has had trade and political relationships with the US for a long time. (not all good). Indonesia is on the equator. It is 1/2 way around the world from Boca Chica. One of the few downsides is the ring of fire and the risk of earthquake, volcano and tsunami.

For SpaceX the ideal would be something like a long thin island so manufacturing can be separated from launch and landing, so life and work can go on there without sheltering, apart from expected sonic booms. It would be able to launch and land from any direction. The sea would be shallow enough to build a harbour etc. and lay pipelines. An ex military base would be good with some of thee facilities.

Where else in the world would SpaceX get this. And they are being "invited", and they can build battery mega factories using local ores!  I bet things start to happen quickly. In a year or two there will be some evidence.... and it will be able to support Mars launches in 2026.

And of course be a regional centre for point-to-point for SE Asia, and Australasia.

[RedLineTrain]

Just to be clear for those who haven't taken a close look at a map, Indonesia is an enormous country.  The location that was mooted is very remote, so is not useful for Starship point-to-point.  And since SpaceX appears to be moving toward floating spaceports, the location probably would offer nothing special for a 18 meter or 24 meter BFR.

[DistantTemple]

Just to be clear for those who haven't taken a close look at a map, Indonesia is an enormous country.  The location that was mooted is very remote, so is not useful for Starship point-to-point.  And since SpaceX appears to be moving toward floating spaceports, the location probably would offer nothing special for a 18 meter or 24 meter BFR.

Thankyou RedLineTrain I had a long study of the map but your comment sent me back to read every post above... and I was pleased the discover the island of "Biak" was mooted. It is here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Biak/@-0.9101555,135.3118375,9z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x6803de5d19a7a55d:0x7f55e76fa89c107c!8m2!3d-1.0381022!4d135.9800848
Just to be clear, Indonesia's very enormity, its shallow seas and remote islands, make it good for unlimited launch and landing to a wide range of orbits. This is fantastic for refuelling.
I admit it seems poor for building a local workforce. I agree it is probably not a good destination for point to point, also yes marine platforms are expected to be used for launch and landing, especially point to point.
The location of "Biak" is some 40 miles from Japen Island, and some 80 miles from Papu, which appears to be lightly populated, so very frequent rocket launch and landing to any orbit is likely possible (including overflying Papu) . If SpaceX were manufacturing there it could fly in workers for a two week shift. CH4 is available by ship, as are all other supplies. I expect Musk will operate with even more freedom from regulation than at BC, which he seems to like. I hear your opinion, but see it differently myself.

[RedLineTrain]

But why not just launch the refueling trips from a platform off the coast of Texas?  I think the sea and air space are fairly amenable for most inclinations.

And the logistics are great there.  Next to an airport, large seaport, methane liquification plants, and cheap land.  Next to an already-constructed factory with sufficient labor force. Supportive local politics (so far).

[AC in NC]

But why not just launch the refueling trips from a platform off the coast of Texas?  I think the sea and air space are fairly amenable for most inclinations.

And the logistics are great there.  Next to an airport, large seaport, methane liquification plants, and cheap land.  Next to an already-constructed factory. Supportive local politics (so far).

Why do you think such a location could support most inclinations.  Everything I've seen about GOM launches is that inclinations are fairly limited.

[RedLineTrain]

GOM?

[DistantTemple]

GOM?

Took me a few minutes ... Gulf Of Mexico!

[DistantTemple]

But why not just launch the refueling trips from a platform off the coast of Texas?  I think the sea and air space are fairly amenable for most inclinations.

And the logistics are great there.  Next to an airport, large seaport, methane liquification plants, and cheap land.  Next to an already-constructed factory. Supportive local politics (so far).

Why do you think such a location could support most inclinations.  Everything I've seen about GOM launches is that inclinations are fairly limited.

I've not looked carefully offshore, but I understand there are plenty of oil installations. (and associated ship movements). The coast to the East, curving towards Houston, and in the South and SE Mexico all constrict launches. I don't know if the Yucatan peninsular can be overflown, I assume so if SS is approaching orbit? Then there is airspace and nearby Brownsville.
So a couple of launches a month, or one a week might seem OK in terms of local disruption, but if SX wanted to launch daily for 2 weeks, to launch and fuel two Mars bound ships, that would likely stretch the patience and good wishes of the area! And of course there is landing, with all returning SS tankers etc booming over Brownsville ... even if the landing pad is 20 miles offshore!
All of these will need official licences, road, and airspace closures...
Conversely I'm just guessing that on Biak, Indonesia may be able to offer SX more comprehensive blanket airspace closure/control, and freedom to launch (not quite) with abandon, and in any case such launches would not be inconveniencing many!
Say if SX launched the said two Mars bound SS's  a few days apart from BC, then Biak could launch and land maybe 4 TIMES A DAY to refuel them both in just a few days. If not in 2024, then 2026.

[Danderman]

I vaguely recall that launching to Mars has no benefit from equatorial launch sites.

[RedLineTrain]

But why not just launch the refueling trips from a platform off the coast of Texas?  I think the sea and air space are fairly amenable for most inclinations.

And the logistics are great there.  Next to an airport, large seaport, methane liquification plants, and cheap land.  Next to an already-constructed factory. Supportive local politics (so far).

Why do you think such a location could support most inclinations.  Everything I've seen about GOM launches is that inclinations are fairly limited.

I've not looked carefully offshore, but I understand there are plenty of oil installations. (and associated ship movements). The coast to the East, curving towards Houston, and in the South and SE Mexico all constrict launches. I don't know if the Yucatan peninsular can be overflown, I assume so if SS is approaching orbit? Then there is airspace and nearby Brownsville.
So a couple of launches a month, or one a week might seem OK in terms of local disruption, but if SX wanted to launch daily for 2 weeks, to launch and fuel two Mars bound ships, that would likely stretch the patience and good wishes of the area! And of course there is landing, with all returning SS tankers etc booming over Brownsville ... even if the landing pad is 20 miles offshore!
All of these will need official licences, road, and airspace closures...
Conversely I'm just guessing that on Biak, Indonesia may be able to offer SX more comprehensive blanket airspace closure/control, and freedom to launch (not quite) with abandon, and in any case such launches would not be inconveniencing many!
Say if SX launched the said two Mars bound SS's  a few days apart from BC, then Biak could launch and land maybe 4 TIMES A DAY to refuel them both in just a few days. If not in 2024, then 2026.

What we are looking at is more or less a permanent airspace and naval area prohibition off the coast of Boca Chica.  It is probably doable after Starship has built a track record.  The aspect that I am least sure of is the naval vessels in the Gulf of Mexico, including oil platforms.  I am guessing that Starship will not dwell too long over any Instantaneous Impact Point of concern, but an analysis is needed and I doubt a back-of-the-envelope calculation would do.  I think that Super Heavy stages earlier than Falcon, which will help some.

I doubt the Boca Chica trajectory analysis of that third party. But we can get into that in the Starship threads.

In any event, yes Biak would be better in some respects. But the logistical negatives are pretty enormous and are worth strenuously avoiding. I am confident that SpaceX would do it only if absolutely necessary.  And even then I would bet that a platform or two off the coast of Vieques or something would be better.

[Barley]

I vaguely recall that launching to Mars has no benefit from equatorial launch sites.

Considerations for a direct trajectory and a refueled trajectory are likely to be different.

If nothing else an equatorial launch site means you don't have to worry about once a day instantaneous launch windows for rendezvous.  That may or may not matter depending on a lot of operational details.

[Lar]

Disclaimer: I have a vested interest. My wife is from Indonesia, most years I spend 2-4 weeks there and I love the place. I haven't been to PNG yet but it's on the list[1]. So of course I'd like it to happen.

I see an equatorial launch site in Asia as a very strong possibility by the time we get to where SpaceX has 5-10 launch sites[2] . Others have outlined a lot of advantages. And disadvantages.  But the next site after Boca Chica? Probably not.  (strong ability to supply LNG short term and good solar longer term are compelling, though, which is why it's not next but on the shortlist)

This might be sweetener one way or the other (for some deal or other) now but something real later. There will need to be regulatory changes on both sides. I expect Musk will want waivers for local content requirements before he'll site a Tesla plant, he'd surely want some changes to site a launch facility. Even a US flagged one in international waters with a logistics base in PNG 25km away. 

1 - I have 8 islands visited so far and 600+ to go but PNG is well up there
2 - It's coming, just not right away... but the diaspora / space industrialization phase of our civilization is coming. and sooner than many of us think.

[Vanspace]

This proposal solves a lot of major headaches for all sides. Tesla, SpaceX, Indonesia and the US.

Tesla needs that nickle now. It does not need another battery or car plant with two of each already being built. They can likely spin out a sub assembly factory like the entertainment system, or utility megapack enclosures but they just don't need a gigafactory in that area for a while.

SpaceX is going to Mars (by 2024) and will need several offshore launch sites with 30 mile exclusion zones, most of which will just launch fuel tankers. Buying, outfitting, permitting and placement of the rigs in less than 3 years is much more likely with strong government support.

Indonesia's economy is strongly dependant on resource extraction. In addition to the vast amounts of nickle, it is a major oil exporter. They are smart enough to see that if Elon gets the nickle, he will severely hurt the oil industry. They also can't be seen as allowing foreigners to exploit resources without getting something major in exchange. From a pure jobs point of view the number of jobs mining and refining nickle will never come close to the oil jobs Tesla will kill. A battery plant with a couple hundred jobs would be just a figleaf over otherwise "obscene" exploitation. On the other hand, trading nickle for a space age industry and a path to the stars while also gaining national pride.... Yeah that will guarantee an election or two.

Like him or not, Biden will be receptive to any international proposal that demonstrates the US is not moving towards isolationist policies. He will also be looking to counteract the anti-Muslim rhetoric. Finally, from a foreign policy perspective, the US is in strong need of "Good Samaritan" economic projects to act as a counterpart to China's Belt and Road initiative. "Leading all of Humanity to the Stars" is a very good fit. Promoting spaceports as technological wealth sharing while building up alliances is pretty solid old school politics.

For all 4 parties, reaching an agreement would help several major current problems.

There are two superficial roadblocks.

Its ITAR not ITAB really is the correct way to look at it. Application of the regulations is fundamentally political and only secondarily about proliferation. Even more so as nothing on Starship is particularly useful as military technology. Cryogenic Booster class engines are simply not useful as military weapons. Which is why the US relied on Russian engines for ten years. The software for flight and control is airgapped and closely guarded by SpaceX but would have very little use except to competitors or saboteurs. Military rockets don't need to land, belly flop, aerobrake. boost back burn or any of the other things Starship software does. ITAR will apply but in this case I don't think any general is going to object if the politicians want to do this.

Local Space Infrastructure in Indonesia is lacking compared to Florida or California but is reasonably comparable to Brownsville Texas a couple years ago. Perfectly capable of oil projects and building water towers but no way they can do space. More of a medium term problem is building infrastructure near the launch site. This is a two edged sword, note that local infrastructure being too close is why SpaceX can't launch three times a day from Boca or the Cape. For tanker operations, there only needs to be the launch platform and a 15,000 ton per day propellant facility. Payload processing and eventually Starship manufacturing could readily be added in later phases.

All in all, this proposal makes a lot of sense and I hope they get it done.

[chopsticks]

Disclaimer: I have a vested interest. My wife is from Indonesia, most years I spend 2-4 weeks there and I love the place. I haven't been to PNG yet but it's on the list[1]. So of course I'd like it to happen.

That's awesome. I think more people should think more internationally about this subject. If this works out, I don't expect it to happen overnight, but I think this would be great. I imagine the weather is pretty nice there year round as well? I haven't looked into this location, but rockets do need nice weather.

All in all, this proposal makes a lot of sense and I hope they get it done.

What you said. I think this would be a great thing as well for international cooperation, and would love for there to be more spaceports in the world. Indonesia had never crossed my mind, but it makes a lot of sense. I don't know if this will work out, but I think it would be really neat if it did.