SpaceX is one of the RDOF Auction Winners

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

That subsidy amount of $885M at $1337 per customer. Results in a subscriber base for those areas of 661,000. That is at $99 per month, a yearly revenue from all of these areas of $786M.

[Asteroza]

That subsidy amount of $885M at $1337 per customer. Results in a subscriber base for those areas of 661,000. That is at $99 per month, a yearly revenue from all of these areas of $786M.

If this is Elon's doing, that $1337 price is not a coincidence...

[gongora]

It's $1377, divided over 10 years

[gongora]

Although there is a question.
What is the payout profile by year such as up front loading to cover "infrastructure emplacement"?

I imagine it is heavily loaded on the front end and tapering off to nearly nothing by year 10.

It's not front loaded but it starts immediately when the paperwork is done (which could still be a few months), so the companies can use some of the money before service starts.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Although there is a question.
What is the payout profile by year such as up front loading to cover "infrastructure emplacement"?

I imagine it is heavily loaded on the front end and tapering off to nearly nothing by year 10.

It's not front loaded but it starts immediately when the paperwork is done (which could still be a few months), so the companies can use some of the money before service starts.

Thanks.

So 2021 will have a revenue income for Starlink just from the subsidies of $88.5M. At some point highly likely in mid/late 2021 once the number of sats reach that majical number somewhere around 1400 then initial operational services would start. Which also starts increasing the revenue coming in for Starlink.

[freddo411]

Although there is a question.
What is the payout profile by year such as up front loading to cover "infrastructure emplacement"?

I imagine it is heavily loaded on the front end and tapering off to nearly nothing by year 10.

It's not front loaded but it starts immediately when the paperwork is done (which could still be a few months), so the companies can use some of the money before service starts.

Thanks.

So 2021 will have a revenue income for Starlink just from the subsidies of $88.5M. At some point highly likely in mid/late 2021 once the number of sats reach that majical number somewhere around 1400 then initial operational services would start. Which also starts increasing the revenue coming in for Starlink.

Slight correction. I’m writing checks to SpaceX right now for using star link

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Although there is a question.
What is the payout profile by year such as up front loading to cover "infrastructure emplacement"?

I imagine it is heavily loaded on the front end and tapering off to nearly nothing by year 10.

It's not front loaded but it starts immediately when the paperwork is done (which could still be a few months), so the companies can use some of the money before service starts.

Thanks.

So 2021 will have a revenue income for Starlink just from the subsidies of $88.5M. At some point highly likely in mid/late 2021 once the number of sats reach that majical number somewhere around 1400 then initial operational services would start. Which also starts increasing the revenue coming in for Starlink.

Slight correction. I’m writing checks to SpaceX right now for using star link

How many are in the Beta and how much $ per month during Beta?

[freddo411]

Although there is a question.
What is the payout profile by year such as up front loading to cover "infrastructure emplacement"?

I imagine it is heavily loaded on the front end and tapering off to nearly nothing by year 10.

It's not front loaded but it starts immediately when the paperwork is done (which could still be a few months), so the companies can use some of the money before service starts.

Thanks.

So 2021 will have a revenue income for Starlink just from the subsidies of $88.5M. At some point highly likely in mid/late 2021 once the number of sats reach that majical number somewhere around 1400 then initial operational services would start. Which also starts increasing the revenue coming in for Starlink.

Slight correction. I’m writing checks to SpaceX right now for using star link

How many are in the Beta and how much $ per month during Beta?

Don’t know

99 a month

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Although there is a question.
What is the payout profile by year such as up front loading to cover "infrastructure emplacement"?

I imagine it is heavily loaded on the front end and tapering off to nearly nothing by year 10.

It's not front loaded but it starts immediately when the paperwork is done (which could still be a few months), so the companies can use some of the money before service starts.

Thanks.

So 2021 will have a revenue income for Starlink just from the subsidies of $88.5M. At some point highly likely in mid/late 2021 once the number of sats reach that majical number somewhere around 1400 then initial operational services would start. Which also starts increasing the revenue coming in for Starlink.

Slight correction. I’m writing checks to SpaceX right now for using star link

How many are in the Beta and how much $ per month during Beta?

Don’t know

99 a month

~$12M a year(12 months) for each 10,000 subscriptions in the Beta or full operations.

[su27k]

This may be just sour grapes, but this article argues there's unusually large amount of fixed wireless bidding on gigabit tier with very low cost in this auction, which they may not be able to achieve in reality. This may explain why Starlink didn't get a bigger piece of the pie.

RDOF Auction Ends but Confusion and Corruption May Just Be Beginning

[gongora]

This may be just sour grapes, but this article argues there's unusually large amount of fixed wireless bidding on gigabit tier with very low cost in this auction, which they may not be able to achieve in reality. This may explain why Starlink didn't get a bigger piece of the pie.

That "article" is a blog post by a lobbying group.  It also shows that a lot of the top winners bid fiber, not wireless.

[su27k]

Some additional grumbling about RDOF results, I guess they're hoping the incoming FCC chief can change it somehow:

Incoming FCC chief could inherit RDOF boondoggle

FCC’s Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Auction Was Supposed to Significantly Reduce America’s Rural Broadband Gap

[RedLineTrain]

Some additional grumbling about RDOF results, I guess they're hoping the incoming FCC chief can change it somehow:

Incoming FCC chief could inherit RDOF boondoggle

FCC’s Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Auction Was Supposed to Significantly Reduce America’s Rural Broadband Gap

These are pretty bad arguments.  But they should be careful what they wish for.  Any redo of the auction probably would benefit SpaceX greatly.

[su27k]

Tim Farrar is also harping on his new (conspiracy) theory that Starlink couldn't support the 675k locations they won from RDOF (and hoping Starlink will fail in the long form stage), here's just a simple back of envelope math to show he's wrong:

1. Data cap: minimal of 2TB per month is required for RDOF, which is 8*2,000,000 Mb/month = 16,000,000 Mb/(30*24*3600s) = 6.2 Mbps, so as long as Starlink uses an oversubscription ratio less than 100/6.2 = 16, they don't need to worry about data cap.

2. Bandwidth: 100Mbps with oversubscription ratio of 16 for 675k locations, from Robotbeat's post here "total capacity in the US is about 1/25th the total capacity of the network.", assuming 20Gbps per satellite, so how many satellites do we need:

x * 0.04 * 20,000 Mbps * 16 / 675,000 = 100 Mbps

x = 5,273, very doable in 10 years.

They'll probably want to use an oversubscription ratio larger than 16x, which means the RDOF data cap requirement is actually a bigger constraint than bandwidth.

[M.E.T.]

Tim Farrar is also harping on his new (conspiracy) theory that Starlink couldn't support the 675k locations they won from RDOF (and hoping Starlink will fail in the long form stage), here's just a simple back of envelope math to show he's wrong:

1. Data cap: minimal of 2TB per month is required for RDOF, which is 8*2,000,000 Mb/month = 16,000,000 Mb/(30*24*3600s) = 6.2 Mbps, so as long as Starlink uses an oversubscription ratio less than 100/6.2 = 16, they don't need to worry about data cap.

2. Bandwidth: 100Mbps with oversubscription ratio of 16 for 675k locations, from Robotbeat's post here "total capacity in the US is about 1/25th the total capacity of the network.", assuming 20Gbps per satellite, so how many satellites do we need:

x * 0.04 * 20,000 Mbps * 16 / 675,000 = 100 Mbps

x = 5,273, very doable in 10 years.

They'll probably want to use an oversubscription ratio larger than 16x, which means the RDOF data cap requirement is actually a bigger constraint than bandwidth.

Just build more powerful satellites as V1.1.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Tim Farrar is also harping on his new (conspiracy) theory that Starlink couldn't support the 675k locations they won from RDOF (and hoping Starlink will fail in the long form stage), here's just a simple back of envelope math to show he's wrong:

1. Data cap: minimal of 2TB per month is required for RDOF, which is 8*2,000,000 Mb/month = 16,000,000 Mb/(30*24*3600s) = 6.2 Mbps, so as long as Starlink uses an oversubscription ratio less than 100/6.2 = 16, they don't need to worry about data cap.

2. Bandwidth: 100Mbps with oversubscription ratio of 16 for 675k locations, from Robotbeat's post here "total capacity in the US is about 1/25th the total capacity of the network.", assuming 20Gbps per satellite, so how many satellites do we need:

x * 0.04 * 20,000 Mbps * 16 / 675,000 = 100 Mbps

x = 5,273, very doable in 10 years.

They'll probably want to use an oversubscription ratio larger than 16x, which means the RDOF data cap requirement is actually a bigger constraint than bandwidth.

Just build more powerful satellites as V1.1.

NOTE: That once Starship starts launching Starlink sats the V2.0's will be deployed. The second generation sat is likely to be heavier but not that much. Produce possibly 4X the power and at least 4X the throughput per sat by more spot beams and 4X frequency reuse. Increased onboard computing and Internet routing. Possibly even some level of onboard data caching or increased packet buffer retransmit capability lowering the overhead for handling failed packet transmissions to clients. Basically a very significant capability jump. Probable introduction of around 2023. So any arguments that say that Starlink will not have the capacity are definite bunk.

The only thing that can hold back capacity expansion is lack of funds.

[Faerwald]

Well that article is crap... In the same breath it say:
A. Starlink shouldn't get money as it will be built anyway, and ,
B. Starlink shouldn't get any money because it has no paying subscribers?

Talking about wanting it both ways..

Snip

FCC’s Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Auction Was Supposed to Significantly Reduce America’s Rural Broadband Gap

These are pretty bad arguments.  But they should be careful what they wish for.  Any redo of the auction probably would benefit SpaceX greatly.

[Hauerg]

Well that article is crap... In the same breath it say:
A. Starlink shouldn't get money as it will be built anyway, and ,
B. Starlink shouldn't get any money because it has no paying subscribers?

Talking about wanting it both ways..

Snip

FCC’s Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Auction Was Supposed to Significantly Reduce America’s Rural Broadband Gap

These are pretty bad arguments.  But they should be careful what they wish for.  Any redo of the auction probably would benefit SpaceX greatly.

Basically the article is complaining that SpaceX has an anfair advantage because its technology is better fit to solve the problem.

[Robotbeat]

The whole point of RDOF is to help enable providers to have the resources to expand coverage. It’s absurd to say at this point that SpaceX should be denied RDOF because they need it, even tho the basic tech is now proven.

[vsatman]

NOTE: That once Starship starts launching Starlink sats the V2.0's will be deployed. The second generation sat is likely to be heavier but not that much. Produce possibly 4X the power and at least 4X the throughput per sat by more spot beams and 4X frequency reuse.

Frequency reuse cannot help here
You have only 4000 MHz in Ka band between Sat and GW . To increase this you have to change in V band  with 10000 MHz 37,5..42,5 GHZ or work with 2 or more GateWAys in Ka...