Author Topic: SpaceX F9/Dragon 2 : CRS2 SpX-23 : August 29, 2021 (07:14 UTC)  (Read 262789 times)

Offline Jansen

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CRS-23 Discussion thread. Third flight of the cargo variant of Dragon 2. Third SpaceX flight under the CRS-2 contract.

Launch August 29, 2021 at 3:14am EDT (07:14 UTC) on Falcon 9 (booster 1061-4) using Cargo Dragon C208.2 from Kennedy Space Center’s LC-39A. Successful ASDS landing on A Shortfall of Gravitas.

NSF Threads for CRS-23 : Discussion
NSF articles for CRS-23 : TBA

NSF Articles for SpaceX CRS :  https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/?s=CRS%2BSpaceX
NSF Articles for CRS missions :  https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/?s=CRS




External cargo: None



Other SpaceX resources on NASASpaceflight:
   SpaceX News Articles (Recent)  /   SpaceX News Articles from 2006 (Including numerous exclusive Elon interviews)
   SpaceX Dragon Articles  /  SpaceX Missions Section (with Launch Manifest and info on past and future missions)
   L2 SpaceX Section
« Last Edit: 08/30/2021 07:10 pm by zubenelgenubi »

Offline Jansen

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Payloads:

CUAVA-1 3U cubesat

Research:

Student Spaceflight Experiments Program (SSEP) 

Mission 14C - 2 experiments
Mission 15B - 3 experiments

Solid Fuel Ignition and Extinction (SoFIE)
https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/space/iss-research/iss-fcf/cir/sofie/


Flow Boiling and Condensation Experiment (FBCE)
https://www1.grc.nasa.gov/space/iss-research/iss-fcf/fir/fbce/


Cubesats

Currently unknown
« Last Edit: 07/09/2021 12:08 am by Jansen »

Offline Jansen

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https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/06/station-planning-new-crew-launch-dates/
Quote
While CRS-21 is currently planned to be a standard 30-day mission, the FPIP indicates that beginning with CRS-23, SpaceX cargo missions will begin to stretch out to the 60-day and beyond mark.

Offline Jansen

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Launch now targeting 01 September 2021 per LSP Waterfall dated 19 November 2020.
« Last Edit: 12/22/2020 11:13 am by Jansen »

Offline PM3

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Launch now targeting 01 September 2021 per LSP Waterfall dated 19 November 2020.

I suspect this means "early September 2021, but our spreadsheet date cell does not accept 'early'". Uncertainty for long-run ISS schedule is +/- months.
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline Jansen

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Launch now targeting 01 September 2021 per LSP Waterfall dated 19 November 2020.

I suspect this means "early September 2021, but our spreadsheet date cell does not accept 'early'". Uncertainty for long-run ISS schedule is +/- months.

If they can fit in words like “Spring”, “NET”, and “Undock”, then I’m sure they could’ve fit in “Early”.

I expect the schedule to change. You’re probably right in what they meant, but I tend to go with the dates that NASA provides rather than use my own interpretation.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2020 04:11 pm by Jansen »

Offline PM3

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If they can fit in words like “Spring”, “NET”, and “Undock”, then I’m sure they could’ve fit in “Early”.

I expect the schedule to change. You’re probably right in what they meant, but I tend to go with the dates that NASA provides rather than use my own interpretation.

Still I think it's rather mislieading to put that exact date into the thread title, as with 99 % confidence it won't launch on that day.
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline Jansen

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If they can fit in words like “Spring”, “NET”, and “Undock”, then I’m sure they could’ve fit in “Early”.

I expect the schedule to change. You’re probably right in what they meant, but I tend to go with the dates that NASA provides rather than use my own interpretation.

Still I think it's rather mislieading to put that exact date into the thread title, as with 99 % confidence it won't launch on that day.

That is the targeted date that NASA is using, from a credible source document. If you have something better please provide it.

If it’s more than a year out then I would use a given month, but I don’t know with “99 % confidence it won't launch on that day”.
« Last Edit: 12/21/2020 04:34 pm by Jansen »

Offline PM3

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Here are the dates of all SpaceX CRS missions so far - published planning dates with max. ~9-12 months lead time vs. launch dates.

Mission  working date  as of      => launch date   working date missed by

CRS-1    2011-07-20    2010-09-14    2012-10-08    ~14 months
CRS-2    2012-07-07    2011-09-02    2013-03-01    ~8 months
CRS-3    2012-10-10    2011-09-27    2014-04-18    ~18 months
CRS-4    2014-01-13    2013-03-29    2014-09-21    ~8 months
CRS-5    2014-09-12    2013-11-20    2015-01-10    ~4 months
CRS-6    2015-02-04    2014-09-03    2015-04-15    ~2 months
CRS-7    2015-06-13    2014-09-03    2015-06-28    ~2 weeks
CRS-8    2015-09-02    2014-12-31    2016-04-08    ~7 months
CRS-9    2015-12-09    2014-12-31    2016-07-18    ~7 months
CRS-10   2016-02-13    2015-06-11    2017-02-19    ~12 months
CRS-11   2016-08-15    2015-10-02    2017-06-03    ~10 months
CRS-12   2017-06-01    2016-10-25    2017-08-14    ~2 months
CRS-13   2017-09-13    2016-11-09    2017-12-15    ~3 months
CRS-14   2018-01-26    2017-08-27    2018-04-02    ~2 months
CRS-15   2018-06-08    2017-10-12    2018-06-29    ~3 weeks
CRS-16   2018-11-16    2018-01-10    2018-12-05    ~3 weeks
CRS-17   2019-02-01    2018-05-08    2019-05-04    ~3 months
CRS-18   2019-05-07    2018-06-22    2019-07-25    ~3 months
CRS-19   2019-10-15    2018-12-16    2019-12-05    ~2 months
CRS-20   2020-03-01    2019-06-07    2020-07-07    ~4 months
CRS-21   2020-08-05    2019-10-11    2020-12-06    ~4 months
CRS-22   2021-05-12    2020-12-15    ??
CRS-23   2021-09-01    2020-12-19    ??
CRS-24   2021-11-15    2020-12-19    ??

We clearly see that those missions NEVER launch at the date that was projected 6-12 months before, also never in the projected week, and rarely in the projected month. In average, they slip by several months. Therefore I still don't think that it makes sense to put those far-fetched precise dates in any mission thread title.

CRS-23 will launch late September 2021, the earliest, but more likely NET Q4/2021.
CRS-24 will launch in December 2021 the earliest, but more likely NET Q1/2022.
"Never, never be afraid of the truth." -- Jim Bridenstine

Offline smoliarm

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Thanks a lot for your work, it's really useful - greatly appreciated.

As for date in the thread title:

1. I concur with Jansen, he gives criterion which is simple and clear: "If we have planned launch date from a CREDIBLE source - it should be in a thread title".
2. Here everybody (or vast majority) knows that ISS schedules are ALWAYS approximate, they do slip to the right - always.
(Therefore there is no misleading - at least for the mentioned majority)

Now, how I would suggest to treat "launch date in the thread title":
*A* Such date DOES NOT represent any attempt to estimate the most probable date of launch.
*B* It merely acknowledges the most recent "planned date" - from an official/credible source.

Or in other words, the date in the title INDICATES THAT WE KNOW the most recent published date.
At the same time it has nothing to do with attempts to predict the actual launch date.

Once again thank you for compiling this table.
It will be REALLY interesting to see how CRS-2 planning will compare with CRS-1.

Offline klod

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https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1349787871364997121?s=20
There is no launch this year in this schedule.

Offline Jansen

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There is no launch this year in this schedule.

It’s not a complete list.

Offline Jansen

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Now targeting 18 August 2021, per December NASA LSP project management documentation.

Online gongora

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This date may be very dependent on the CFT schedule.

Offline Jansen

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This date may be very dependent on the CFT schedule.

I think that’s why it got bumped up from September.

Offline snotis

That is no longer true.

This date may be very dependent on the CFT schedule.

Online gongora

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That is no longer true.

This date may be very dependent on the CFT schedule.

Yeah, now it's the OFT-2 schedule that it will be interacting with.

Offline Moonbase_Alphan

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NASA emblem

small and large file

Offline vaporcobra

Confirms that CRS-23 will reuse CRS-21 Dragon C208.

Offline StraumliBlight

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The CUAVA-1 3U cubesat will be on CRS-23 and deployed from the ISS later this year.

It carries four experimental payloads, including:

• TinyTol telescope to search for exoplanets.
• GPS instrument to explore radio occultation.

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