SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[OceanCat]

SAT-LOA-20221201-00167

Transporter-10? (2024 Q1) rideshare payload -- 2 6U Tomorrow.io satellites. Launch Window: Jan. 1 - Feb. 29, 2024. The Tomorrow.io satellites are scheduled to launch in pairs on multiple SpaceX Falcon 9 rideshare missions out of either Cape Canaveral, Florida or Vandenberg Air Force Base, California between Q1 2024 through Q3 2025. Tomorrow.io’s planned NGSO Earth Exploration Satellite Service system consists of eighteen 6U identical satellites, designed to have an estimated operational lifetime of five years, and distributed across nine planes at 550 km.

https://www.tomorrow.io/space/

To improve global forecasting capabilities, we are launching a first-of-its-kind, commercial weather satellite constellation equipped with radars and microwave sounders. Our space program will democratize access to global weather forecasting and enable organizations to prepare for and mitigate the business impact of weather. Radars are active remote sensors providing detailed information about precipitation that no other sensor can see during days and nights and across all weather conditions. Microwave sounders are passive remote sensors measuring critical atmospheric temperature and water profiles as well as proxies for precipitation data.

[crandles57]

VSFB launch rate
2-4 launched 19 Jan 2023

2-6 OSD 12Jan23 launch planned 29 Jan
2-5 OSD 22Jan23
2-7 OSD 13Feb23
2-8 OSD 23Feb23
SARah 2&3 ?OSD 11Feb23
Transport and tracking f1

Can they get those 7 launched by end of March? If so that might suggest 28-30 launches this year is possible.

Perhaps more likely that at least one of these slips to April or later?

Is a few OSDs being close together like 11th 13th and 23rd Feb, all for VSFB, mean they are hoping to have a high launch rate or is it more likely to indicate that they know one of those is likely to slip quite a bit and therefore they need a launch licence for a different launch to be ready for that period or something else?

Starlink delay wouldn't need extra licence application so perhaps the best guess would be that Sarah 2&3 is going to slip?

Edit Nextspaceflight now showing Sarah 2&3 as NET April 2023

[wannamoonbase]

VSFB launch rate
2-4 launched 19 Jan 2023

2-6 OSD 12Jan23 launch planned 29 Jan
2-5 OSD 22Jan23
2-7 OSD 13Feb23
2-8 OSD 23Feb23
SARah 2&3 ?OSD 11Feb23
Transport and tracking f1

Can they get those 7 launched by end of March? If so that might suggest 28-30 launches this year is possible.

Perhaps more likely that at least one of these slips to April or later?

Is a few OSDs being close together like 11th 13th and 23rd Feb, all for VSFB, mean they are hoping to have a high launch rate or is it more likely to indicate that they know one of those is likely to slip quite a bit and therefore they need a launch licence for a different launch to be ready for that period or something else?

Starlink delay wouldn't need extra licence application so perhaps the best guess would be that Sarah 2&3 is going to slip?

SpaceX has often talked about staffing up for more Vandy launches.  Perhaps now is the time.

2 to 2.5 launches a month would really go a long way to help take some pressure off the 2 East coast pads.

3 per month seems possible (especially with most of the non-starlink flights being RTLS) and would be amazing.

[realnouns]

The LC-39A schedule looks like it could possibly not have many Starlink launches until after a plethora of more fun missions!

Feb 1 / Starlink 5-3
Feb Mid / Starlink
Feb 26 / Crew 6
Mar 11 / CRS-27
Mar 24 / ViaSat-3 & Aurora 4A
April / Polaris Dawn

[crandles57]

The LC-39A schedule looks like it could possibly not have many Starlink launches until after a plethora of more fun missions!

Feb 1 / Starlink 5-3
Feb Mid / Starlink
Feb 26 / Crew 6
Mar 11 / CRS-27
Mar 24 / ViaSat-3 & Aurora 4A
April / Polaris Dawn

Fitting 2 in the 1st to 26th gap maybe 1st 9th 17th then Crew-6 on 26th does look a bit too tight so probably only one starlink in that gap. 5-4 and 6-1 looking most likely. (Edit 3: not even 1 in that gap)

Pad 40
for Feb looking like
Feb 5 Amazonas Nexus
Feb ~13 Starlink (probably other of 5-4 and 6-1)(edit 2: Feb 11th Starlink 5-4 min 6 days for pad 9 days from 2nd Feb for droneship)
Feb ~2118 I6-F2
Feb ~28 Starlink 6-2 or 5-5? or O3b mPOWER 3&4

VSFB
Jan 29 Starlink 2-6
Feb 8+ Starlink 2-5
Feb 18+ Starlink 2-7 
Feb 28+ Starlink 2-8

Yeah OK a total of 10 launches in Feb is probably a bit too hopeful. Therefore, couple on 28th likely to slip right and even 8 launches would be a new record in a short month so probably unlikely.

[wannamoonbase]

Yeah OK a total of 10 launches in Feb is probably a bit too hopeful. Therefore, couple on 28th likely to slip right and even 8 launches would be a new record in a short month so probably unlikely.

I think the SpaceX Navy's ability to manage ASDS cycle times. 

3 Cycles per ASDS per month is close to the practical limit and likely hard to keep up month after month.  West coast ASDS cycles seem

Seems 8 flights per month with 3 on the west coast maybe sustainable. 

[OceanCat]

Fleet Space plans to launch three 12U and one 41U satellite on a Falcon 9 NET January 2023. Deployment altitude 550-600 km, inclination 45 degrees. This is the second application I found targeting 45 degrees inclination. The first one lists clearly periodic rideshare missions. Looks like Transporters are going to 45 degrees inclination occasionally, right?

The filing was made in Aug 2022.

[gongora]

Fleet Space plans to launch three 12U and one 41U satellite on a Falcon 9 NET January 2023. Deployment altitude 550-600 km, inclination 45 degrees. This is the second application I found targeting 45 degrees inclination. The first one lists clearly periodic rideshare missions. Looks like Transporters are going to 45 degrees inclination occasionally, right?

The filing was made in Aug 2022.

This line from the ODAR gives quite a clue:
"SpaceX Falcon 9 (Maxar satellite dedicated launch)"

Worldview Legion is split between SSO and 45-degrees.

[LutoMed]

The LC-39A schedule looks like it could possibly not have many Starlink launches until after a plethora of more fun missions!

Feb 1 / Starlink 5-3
Feb Mid / Starlink
Feb 26 / Crew 6
Mar 11 / CRS-27
Mar 24 / ViaSat-3 & Aurora 4A
April / Polaris Dawn

IM-1 somewhere in March as well

[crandles57]

If pad turnaround is 6 days but droneship turnaround is 8 days then

ASOG is carrying 1069 from 5-3 launch on 2nd Feb
So JRTI has to do Amazonas Nexus on 5th Feb.

Starlink 5-4 on 11th cannot be done by JRTI it is only a 6 day gap from 5th so would have to be done by ASOG

If there is to be a mid Feb, 39A launch, of presumably Starlink 6-1, and the above applies
then only JRTI could do it when it becomes available 8 days after 5th Feb so 13th.

13th to 18th is too tight for droneship turnaround, so
That leaves ASOG doing 11th Feb 5-4 and 18th Feb I6-f2 landings which is very tight breaking our 8 day turnaround.

Maybe that is just about possible but it is very tight.

13th to 26th would allow 13 days to convert pad for Crew-6 which could also be quite tight on time?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1621253154879819777

Last night SpaceX completed its 200th orbital launch attempt. The increase in cadence is notable:

First 100 launches: 125 months
Second 100 launches: 25 months

Third 100 launches in 14 or 13 months?

[wannamoonbase]

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1621253154879819777

Last night SpaceX completed its 200th orbital launch attempt. The increase in cadence is notable:

First 100 launches: 125 months
Second 100 launches: 25 months

Third 100 launches in 14 or 13 months?

Agreed, likely 13-14 months, but maybe 12?

Shocking launch cadence but what fun, I love having a launch every few days!

February needs a few more Starlink launches added to the manifest to maintain the pace.

[Alexphysics]

Not that it needed any confirmation but SpaceX removed the top insert of 39A's strongback (and this can be seen done this morning on SCL) which means it's being converted to Dragon configuration. Next launch from there is Crew-6

[GewoonLukas_]

Not that it needed any confirmation but SpaceX removed the top insert of 39A's strongback (and this can be seen done this morning on SCL) which means it's being converted to Dragon configuration. Next launch from there is Crew-6

Sounds like LC-39A will be occupied until mid-April:

Said they're planning April 8, after the two NASA ISS missions.  Reach orbital slot a couple weeks after launch.  Viasat-3 EMEA on ULA in September.

Crew-6 → CRS-27 → ViaSat-3 Americas

[crandles57]

Sounds like LC-39A will be occupied until mid-April:
Crew-6 → CRS-27 → ViaSat-3 Americas

26 Feb Crew-6
10 Mar CRS-27
Is there room here for a launch ~20 March?
8 April FH ViaSat-3
April Polaris Dawn crewed
May AX-2 crewed
May FH Jupiter 3
5 June CRS-28
June FH USSF-52
Late June IM-1

August Crew-7
10 October Psyche
20 Oct CRS-29
2023? AX-3
2023?? AX-4

More like schedule is practically full until July, just maybe a chance of an extra one mid/late March. Schedule is fairly full until end of October.

Can SLC40 do 4 a month while 39A does 2 a month swapping between FH, crewed, and uncrewed ISS?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Nice graphic showing the FH manifest:

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1624012874959015938

Mission manifest of #SpaceX's #FalconHeavy as of Feb 10, 2023

#Space

[Chinakpradhan]

Sounds like LC-39A will be occupied until mid-April:
Crew-6 → CRS-27 → ViaSat-3 Americas

26 Feb Crew-6
10 Mar CRS-27
Is there room here for a launch ~20 March?
8 April FH ViaSat-3
April Polaris Dawn crewed
May AX-2 crewed
May FH Jupiter 3
5 June CRS-28
June FH USSF-52
Late June IM-1

August Crew-7
10 October Psyche
20 Oct CRS-29
2023? AX-3
2023?? AX-4

More like schedule is practically full until July, just maybe a chance of an extra one mid/late March. Schedule is fairly full until end of October.

Can SLC40 do 4 a month while 39A does 2 a month swapping between FH, crewed, and uncrewed ISS?

move some like AX-4 to SLC-40 as crew access tower will be ready or at least done a CRS-28?? i would prefer if dragon and fh launches are in close proximity move the dragon launch to SLC-40. instead of keeping it as backup, use the slc-40 to make pad-39a more flexible, something like alternate launching (or moving axiom and cargo dragons to slc-40 with pad 39a involving maintaining fh and crew-X launches (because f9 fairing to f9 dragon is easy taking the same time as droneship turnaround)).

so the second half of the year turns out to be:
August Crew-7 (39A)
10 October Psyche (39A)
20 Oct CRS-29 (40)
2023? AX-3 (39A)
2023?? AX-4 (40)
this allows many F9 fairing launches at 39A.

[crandles57]

Ben Coopers Launch photography (12th Feb update) has pad 40 doing I6-f2 on 17/18 then a starlink launch then O3b mPower in late Feb.
5 day gaps now possible: 18th 23rd 28th ?

The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket will launch the Inmarsat 6 F2 satellite from pad 40 on February 17 at 10:58 p.m. EST. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch a Starlink batch on late February TBD. A Falcon 9 from pad 39A will launch four astronauts to the ISS on Crew-6 on February 26 at 2:07 a.m. EST (Saturn V Center tickets on sale here). And a Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the next pair of O3b mPOWER satellites for SES on late February.

Seems likely Starlink launch after I6-f2 would be 6-1. O3b likely slipping to March?

Edit: 18 23rd 28th not plausible if Crew 6 launches on 26th due to drone ship availability.

[realnouns]

I'm seeing a Florida F9 First Stage deficiency in the works.  Right now it's looking like this:

40 - Feb 17 - Inmarsat 6 - 1077.3
40 - ~Feb 25 - open - ####.#
40 - Mar 6 - SES-18/19 - ####.#

39A - Feb 26 - Crew 6 - 1078.1
39A - Mar 10 - CRS 27 - ####.#
39A - ~Mar 24 - open - ####.#
39A - Apr 8 - ViaSat - heavy

if you assume Starlink 6-1 slots into SLC-40 on ~Feb 25 with it's previously mentioned booster 1076.3.  Then what boosters do CRS-27 and SES-18/19 use?  Unassigned boosters with assumed turnaround and next ready date as follows:

1058.16 - 75d - Mar 2
1067.10 - 45d - Mar 12
1060.16 - 75d - Mar 19
1069.6  - 45d - Mar 19
1073.7  - 45d - Mar 23
1062.13 - 45d - Mar 29

Of course SpaceX may decide to push the limits on turnaround times but assumptions above seem reasonable.  I could imagine them reassigning B1076.3 to CRS-27, and using 1058.16 for Starlink 6-1.  Then I guess 1067.10 to SES-18/19...  If SpaceX keeps up a 6-7 launch per month pace (say every 4.5d) from Florida, ALL with 45d avg turnarounds, they would need 10 boosters in rotation.  Right now they have 8 (assuming 1052 conversion underway), with a 9th (1078) being brought in for Crew 6.  Two of those nine have flown 15 times and are averaging ~75d turnarounds over last 4 missions.  I could see them needing 2-3 new F9 in the first half of this year, plus a center core for EchoStar.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

I'm seeing a Florida F9 First Stage deficiency in the works.  Right now it's looking like this:

40 - Feb 17 - Inmarsat 6 - 1077.3
40 - ~Feb 25 - open - ####.#
40 - Mar 6 - SES-18/19 - ####.#

39A - Feb 26 - Crew 6 - 1078.1
39A - Mar 10 - CRS 27 - ####.#
39A - ~Mar 24 - open - ####.#
39A - Apr 8 - ViaSat - heavy

if you assume Starlink 6-1 slots into SLC-40 on ~Feb 25 with it's previously mentioned booster 1076.3.  Then what boosters do CRS-27 and SES-18/19 use?  Unassigned boosters with assumed turnaround and next ready date as follows:

1058.16 - 75d - Mar 2
1067.10 - 45d - Mar 12
1060.16 - 75d - Mar 19
1069.6  - 45d - Mar 19
1073.7  - 45d - Mar 23
1062.13 - 45d - Mar 29

Of course SpaceX may decide to push the limits on turnaround times but assumptions above seem reasonable.  I could imagine them reassigning B1076.3 to CRS-27, and using 1058.16 for Starlink 6-1.  Then I guess 1067.10 to SES-18/19...  If SpaceX keeps up a 6-7 launch per month pace (say every 4.5d) from Florida, ALL with 45d avg turnarounds, they would need 10 boosters in rotation.  Right now they have 8 (assuming 1052 conversion underway), with a 9th (1078) being brought in for Crew 6.  Two of those nine have flown 15 times and are averaging ~75d turnarounds over last 4 missions.  I could see them needing 2-3 new F9 in the first half of this year, plus a center core for EchoStar.

On a 1070's+ booster they can do a normal 21 day turnaround. If the booster needs more than normal work then those days are added to the 21. At average of 45 days they are loping. Expect a rate of 30 days average if they need to launch more often. This will include the boosters that need more work or other challenges delaying the turnaround like lack of work space. They could do 6 at East coast and 2 at west coast for 8 in a month. Making for the year an average per month of some value >7 per month. But even if they have some months at 4 or 5 then those handfull of months at 8 will raise the total of Falcon launches in the 70's to 80's.