SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/alexphysics13/status/1612577769363324928

Busy day for SpaceX. The three Falcon launchpads have rockets on them and at Starbase the only Starship launch pad (for now) also has a full Starship rocket on it.

Views from NSF's Space Coast Live and Starbase Live (nsf.live/spacecoast and nsf.live/starbase)

[wannamoonbase]

Looks like there is room for 1 or 2 Starlink flights to be added to the manifest before the end of January, one on each coast.

[realnouns]

Looks like there is room for 1 or 2 Starlink flights to be added to the manifest before the end of January, one on each coast.

Not 3?  One at each pad?

[crandles57]

Looks like there is room for 1 or 2 Starlink flights to be added to the manifest before the end of January, one on each coast.

Not 3?  One at each pad?

Trying to do one from each pad would mean pad 40 would have:

18th Jan GPS3-6
25th Jan? Starlink 2-2 or 5-2 ?
1st Feb Amazonas Nexus

7 day gaps for these which all require ASDS while pad 39A is used for a Starlink launch which also requires a drone ship seems very tight? or impossible?. If they are planning two Starlink launches from East coast why give a NET 1 Feb for Amazonas Nexus? Perhaps it is still reconcilable: If GPS3-6 is delayed then Amazonas Nexus will launch next when it is ready on 1 Feb but if there is almost enough time for a Starlink launch that will go before Amazonas Nexus which will be delayed a little.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/patrick_colqu/status/1613476127229485057

Can SpaceX really launch 100 times in 2023? Elon Musk suggested that that is the goal. Falcon 9 is the workhorse of the fleet, but can enough boosters be turned around to keep up? Is their supply chain in order?

📺:

[ZachF]

Here is the final dV adjusted payload totals for 2022:

963,662 (75x)  United States
776,876 (61x)  (SpaceX)
240,192 (62x)  China
99,729 (22x)  Russia
65,156 (4x)  Europe
10,764 (4x)  India
2,199 (1x)  South Korea
1,378 (9x)  New Zealand
15 (1x)  Iran
0 (0x)  Japan

1,383,095  (178x) Earth

There are lots of benchmarks!

SpaceX lifted ~57% of the world’s adjusted tonnage to orbit last year, more than triple that of second place China. The US as a whole lifted 70% of the world’s adjusted tonnage. The SLS launch was the single largest adjusted payload this year, with a value of 72,500… 3/4s the total of Russia’s 22 launches!

Reusable boosters as a share of total tonnage continues to follow a classic S-curve tech disruption path, will probably reach 90%+ levels in only a few more years.

SpaceX’s cumulative lifetime adjusted tonnage to orbit also surpassed China last year, and it will likely pass Europe this year. Europe’s share of the global tonnage value dropped to under 4%, the lowest share since the 1980s, and Russia’s share dropped to 7%, it’s lowest share ever.

[ZachF]

2022 by company/family:


776,876 (61x) 🇺🇸 SpaceX
138,641 (39x) 🇨🇳 CZ-2/3/4
96,813 (10x) 🇨🇳 CZ-5/6/7/8
96,052 (8x) 🇺🇸 ULA
88,197 (17x) 🇷🇺 R-7 family
72,500 (1x) 🇺🇸 NASA/Boeing SLS
64,312 (3x) 🇪🇺 Ariane 5
15,983 (2x) 🇺🇸 NG Antares
10,764 (4x) 🇮🇳 ISRO
9,200 (1x) 🇷🇺 Proton
2,199 (1x) 🇰🇷 KARI
1,800 (2x) 🇷🇺 Soyuz 2V
1,722 (4x) 🇨🇳 CZ-11
1,653 (5x) 🇨🇳 Kuaizhou
1,378 (9x) 🇳🇿 Rocket Lab
900 (1x) 🇨🇳 BZAET Zhongke
844 (1x) 🇪🇺 Vega
700 (1x) 🇨🇳 Jielong-3
565 (2x) 🇨🇳 Galactic Energy
532 (2x) 🇷🇺 Angara
118 (2x) 🇺🇸 Virgin Orbit
50 (1x) 🇺🇸 Firefly
15 (1x) 🇺🇸 Astra
15 (1x) 🇮🇷 Qased
0 (0x) 🇨🇳 iSpace
0 (0x) 🇨🇳 LandSpace
0 (0x) 🇯🇵 Epsilon

[crandles57]

100 launches in 2023 may be constrained by pad availability. If so, pad delays are effectively cumulative. to get to 100, they need to average one launch every 3.65 days. So far in 2023, they are at 2/13, or one every 6.5 days.

Pads may well be the critical limiting factor, particularly if/when pads need repairs or upgrades like pad 40 needing crew access arm or even just during times when there are RTLS launches. Pad turnaround times have come down a lot in last 8 months to a year but maybe there is still a little more room for improvement?

When upcoming launches are all drone ship, then I think drone ships may be a little more of a constraint.

There is also stage 2 production that could be a limiting factor. If stage 2 production is maximised, does that limit production and/or refurbishment of boosters?

Not enough of the missions being willing and able to launch from Vandenberg is another possible constraining factor? If not, then just the number of mission ready to launch could be the critical limiting factor.

Weather can restrict the number of launches.

Regulatory limits on number of launches could also be relevant. (eg 60 F9 from Florida.)

Any other limiting factors that might be critical?

If SpaceX are close to several such limits, investing to solve one of them may not help that much. Such investments are also less likely to happen if number of falcon launches is likely to start falling soon after 2023.

[DanClemmensen]

100 launches in 2023 may be constrained by pad availability. If so, pad delays are effectively cumulative. to get to 100, they need to average one launch every 3.65 days. So far in 2023, they are at 2/13, or one every 6.5 days.

Pads may well be the critical limiting factor, particularly if/when pads need repairs or upgrades like pad 40 needing crew access arm or even just during times when there are RTLS launches. Pad turnaround times have come down a lot in last 8 months to a year but maybe there is still a little more room for improvement?

When upcoming launches are all drone ship, then I think drone ships may be a little more of a constraint.

There is also stage 2 production that could be a limiting factor. If stage 2 production is maximised, does that limit production and/or refurbishment of boosters?

Not enough of the missions being willing and able to launch from Vandenberg is another possible constraining factor? If not, then just the number of mission ready to launch could be the critical limiting factor.

Weather can restrict the number of launches.

Regulatory limits on number of launches could also be relevant. (eg 60 F9 from Florida.)

Any other limiting factors that might be critical?

If SpaceX are close to several such limits, investing to solve one of them may not help that much. Such investments are also less likely to happen if number of falcon launches is likely to start falling soon after 2023.

Thanks for the list. I find a post like this to be much more efficient than a video.
Summary of your constraints:
   Pad turnaround
   Pad repair
   Pad upgrade.
   Droneship availabilty
   Stage 2 production
   Vandenberg suitability
   Weather
   Regulatory  (60 in Fla?, 5 in BC)
Another few:
    Other pad users
    Booster availability (number of boosters in the stable)
    Booster turnaround time
    Range availability.
    FH<-->F9 pad conversion time.

Maybe we can try to put SWAGs on each of these constraints?

[wannamoonbase]

Looks like there is room for 1 or 2 Starlink flights to be added to the manifest before the end of January, one on each coast.

Not 3?  One at each pad?

Ok, I'll take 3.

I was leaving room for slips or preps for commercial payloads, but 3 isn't impossible.

[crandles57]

Looks like there is room for 1 or 2 Starlink flights to be added to the manifest before the end of January, one on each coast.

Not 3?  One at each pad?

Ok, I'll take 3.

I was leaving room for slips or preps for commercial payloads, but 3 isn't impossible.

3 seemed possible a week+ ago but I am getting less sure.

Vandenberg 19th and 31st would be 12 days. Not impossible but not a lot of spare time.

LC-39A 15 Jan for a FH. Shortest time to another launch after a FH launch has been 25 days. No doubt some time can be knocked off that and maybe 16 days is possible but with a changeover from FH to F9, time available seems quite short here also.

SLC-40 Last flight today 18th seems to leave a perfectly adequate 13 days. However if Amazonas Nexus is planned for the 1st Feb perhaps that is next to launch?

0, 1, 2, or 3 after Starlink 2-4 and in January all possible?

https://www.spacearchive.info/vafbsked.htm
has 30 Jan presumably for Starlink 2-6 (as 2-5 operations start date is 1 Feb)
So that might make it or might get delayed into Feb.

Edit: Now spotted Launch photography 18 Jan update is suggesting just one starlink launch from Florida in Jan
https://www.launchphotography.com/Launch_Viewing_Guide.html

The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from pad 40 will launch a Starlink batch on January TBD. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the Amazonas Nexus satellite for Hispasat on early February. A Falcon 9 will launch a Starlink batch on February TBD. 

[GWR64]

B1075 was planned as a side core for Psyche and Europa Clipper, will it stay that way?
Now it should take off tomorrow with Starlink, from Vandenberg air force base 

[realnouns]

The launch of GPS yesterday marked the fastest average turnaround time over 3 missions from SLC-40

Starlink 5-1 >> Transporter 6 = 6.2d
Transporter 6 >> OneWeb 2 = 6.6d
OneWeb 2 >> GPS III SV06 = 8.3d
       averaging 7.0d (prev record 8.4d - Galaxy 33/34 >> Hotbird 13F >> Starlink 4-36 >> Hotbird 13G)

The 5 mission average turnaround record of 9.0d will be broken if/when Starlink 5-2 launches on Jan 24 (average 8.8d)
And will be blown away if Inmarsat 6 F2 launches Feb 1 (average 7.0d)

I'm very anxious to see them beat the single launch turnaround record of 5.4d

[Comga]

Can SpaceX really launch 100 times in 2023? Elon Musk suggested that that is the goal. Falcon 9 is the workhorse of the fleet, but can enough boosters be turned around to keep up? Is their supply chain in order?

Towards an answer to that question, the graph posted two weeks ago already needs an update.
Averaging over the last ten launches, SpaceX's pace exceeded 90 launches per year yesterday and almost 93 with today's launch.

I was impressed by FutureSpaceTourist's observation that SpaceX has updated the deck shape on OCISLY.
They are not done tweaking the Falcon 9 system to optimize operations.

[Alexphysics]

That upgrade was first spotted by Harry via satellite pictures. It's part of the many done on the west coast to increase cadence. Target is ~30 launches this year from Vandenberg https://twitter.com/Harry__Stranger/status/1604845082972024837

[vaporcobra]

That upgrade was first spotted by Harry via satellite pictures. It's part of the many done on the west coast to increase cadence. Target is ~30 launches this year from Vandenberg

Which, for comparison, would make SLC-4 about as productive as LC-40 was in 2022. No lack of ambition!

[crandles57]

That upgrade was first spotted by Harry via satellite pictures. It's part of the many done on the west coast to increase cadence. Target is ~30 launches this year from Vandenberg

Which, for comparison, would make SLC-4 about as productive as LC-40 was in 2023. No lack of ambition!

Time traveller alert.

meanwhile 5 in 19 days is a rate of 96 Falcons per year
Only 4 Starships would be a disappointment

7 booster in 19 days is well up with the pace

[zubenelgenubi]

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated January 20:
Between the listings for Amazonas Nexus and Inmarsat 6 F2 is this:

Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches.

[zubenelgenubi]

Looking ahead at February; I've included some of my deductions and inferences, marking them with question marks:
Launched in February:
Feb 2    KSC LC-39A         ASOG     Starlink 5-3
Feb 6    CCSFS SLC-40    JRTI       Amazonas Nexus
Feb 12  CCSFS SLC-40    ASOG     Starlink 5-4
Feb 17   Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-5
Feb 18   CCSFS SLC-40   JRTI        Inmarsat 6 F2
Feb 27   CCSFS SLC-40   ASOG      Starlink 6-1

Scheduled for February:
X

And, into early March:
Mar 1 mid Feb? late 27 28             Vand SLC-4E      OCISLY   Starlink 2-7
Mar 2 Feb 26 27                               KSC LC-39A       JRTI       Crew-6
Mar 9 late? Feb NET mid? Mar 1   CCSFS SLC-40   LZ-1      OneWeb Flight 17
Mar 12 11                                          KSC LC-39A       ASDS     SpX-27
Mar 18 6 9 15                                   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     SES-18/19
NET mid Mar end of? Feb early     Vand SLC-4E     OCISLY   Starlink 2-8
<Mid March Vandenberg Starlink launch slotted here?>
NET Mar 22                                      Vand SLC-4E       LZ-4       1st SDA launch
<Late March LC-39A launch slotted here?>
NET late Mar                                     CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     Starlink 5-5
NET end of? Mar                              CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     Starlink 6-2?

Beyond March:
Apr 7 Mar 7 23                                    CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS    Intelsat 40e/TEMPO
Apr 8 Mar 24                                       KSC LC-39A       all 3 1st stages expended   ViaSat-3 Americas
NET Apr Jan end of Feb NET Mar   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS   O3b mPower 3 and 4

Cross-posts:

Perhaps, Starlink 6-1 will launch in early February, from LC-39A, after Starlink 5-3 on February 1 January 31, and before Crew-6 on February 26?

(Or Starlink 5-4?)

Edit:  There may be another, brief launch opportunity at SLC-40 between Amazonas Nexus on February 5 and Inmarsat 6 F2 later in the month.

Edit Jan 26: Both launches have been assigned first stages, indicating both launches are in the near future.

Edit January 28/further observation:
The final Falcon 9 OneWeb cluster launch could replace the mPower pair launch (late February, SLC-40), if necessary.

We'll see if any other payloads arrive at a launch site soon for processing towards a February launch.  (Examples: SARah, Legion)

Extensive edits through January and February.

[crandles57]

5-Spare has OSD 13 Jan
5-4 has OSD 29 Jan
6-1 has OSD 4 Feb

List above has 6-1 before 5-4 and 5-Spare not at all. I could understand 5-4 being prioritised over 5-Spare. Is there reason for pushing 6-1 up the list? If 6-1 includes E band that would seem more like reason to expect delays rather than being pushed up the list?

(OTOH if it is ready perhaps they want to prioritise it in order to test it sooner rather than later?)