SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[crandles57]

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/12/eros-c3-launch/

SpaceX says they plan to fly at least 100 missions in 2023.

That "at least" seems somewhat more aggressive than the quotes I have seen eg

Could launch 100
I've heard the company's goal is 100 orbital flights next year.
https://www.space.com/spacex-launch-100-missions-2023-elon-musk
Yeah, aiming for up to 100 flights next year
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

Has something further been said to make it 'at least' or is this a mis-spoke/typed error?

[FutureSpaceTourist]

twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1608779169168764929

#SpaceX's missions of 2022

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1608779172859777031

@elonmusk's 60 launches plan as of Dec 30, 2022

A private company managing a launch every 6 days for a year … amazing!

About 100 in a year is a tall order. That’s 8.5 a month and SpaceX have only today for the first time managed 7 in a month. I can just about imagine launching close to 100 in a year, but recovery ops I think will limit rate (at least unless and until Starship reuse works out).

[wannamoonbase]

About 100 in a year is a tall order. That’s 8.5 a month and SpaceX have only today for the first time managed 7 in a month. I can just about imagine launching close to 100 in a year, but recovery ops I think will limit rate (at least unless and until Starship reuse works out).

I think 100 flights per year requires VSFB to really step up and do 2-3 flights per month.

Plus, a third ASDS helps on the east coast, or plenty of RTLS.  Two ASDS work if everything is perfect, but weather, servicing ASDS, FH flights, would because problems for them.

[wannamoonbase]

I grouped the same list into payloads, rideshares, crew, cargo and Starlink. Starlink (only?) makes up about half their launches, they also had a very healthy year in all kinds of customer payload.

Thanks for the list.  They did have a good Commercial and NASA year.  Good revenue there to be sure.

2023 have strong commercial start too.  Which I suspect is why Elon wants a higher flight rate.  Support commercial as well as Starlink.

I'll be watching to see if this gets added:
https://www.teslarati.com/nasa-spacex-dragon-rescue-mission-soyuz-crew-report/

[crandles57]

About 100 in a year is a tall order. That’s 8.5 a month and SpaceX have only today for the first time managed 7 in a month. I can just about imagine launching close to 100 in a year, but recovery ops I think will limit rate (at least unless and until Starship reuse works out).

I think 100 flights per year requires VSFB to really step up and do 2-3 flights per month.

Plus, a third ASDS helps on the east coast, or plenty of RTLS.  Two ASDS work if everything is perfect, but weather, servicing ASDS, FH flights, would because problems for them.

A third ASDS seems unlikely to me.

Nov & Dec did 5 launches a month from East coast (inc a FH). That is a rate of 60 so it isn't much of a step up to 60F9 and 5FH. They might even be allowed and able to do 65 F9 and 5FH.

Last Vandenberg gap was 14 days that is a rate of 26 per year.

60 East coast, F9 5 FH, 26 Vandenberg =91
65 East coast, F9 5 FH, 26 Vandenberg =96
So just 4-9 Starship launches needed to reach 100

Certainly not easy, but within realms of possibility without needing to conjure up another ASDS.

Perhaps helps if the FH are side RTLS and expendable centre and perhaps even a couple or more FH launches back to back.

I am not sure what is the hardest part of this:
Is it 10% increase in East coast launch rate over Nov/Dec 2022? (compared to 28->48 it is a low rate of improvement)
Is it maintaining Vandenberg launch rate compared to Dec 2022?
Is it finding 26 launches willing and able to launch from Vandenberg?
Is it doing more than ~6? Starship launches given limits at Boca Chica and need to authorise Starship launches from 39A2?

[friendly3]

Year end snapshot

The last four landings should be in green (S S S L) and Starlink 4-37 launched from C-39A and not C-40.
Good job otherwise. 

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Year end snapshot

twitter.com/spacex/status/1608888588711899137

On average, SpaceX launched every 6 days from one of our three sites with 92% of missions completed with flight-proven first stage rocket boosters, and Falcon 9 now holds the world record for most launches of a single vehicle type in a single year

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1608889186765111296

Most importantly, SpaceX successfully delivered our customers’ payloads to orbit, deployed additional Starlink satellites that add more capacity to our network, and flew critical cargo and astronauts to the @space_station and safely returned them back home Earth

[niwax]

I grouped the same list into payloads, rideshares, crew, cargo and Starlink. Starlink (only?) makes up about half their launches, they also had a very healthy year in all kinds of customer payload.

Thanks for the list.  They did have a good Commercial and NASA year.  Good revenue there to be sure.

2023 have strong commercial start too.  Which I suspect is why Elon wants a higher flight rate.  Support commercial as well as Starlink.

Yes, despite people highlighting Starlink as the driving factor for launch rate, they have an extremely solid commercial business and would be outlaunching everyone on that basis alone. With something along the lines of $2.5 billion in launch revenue, they are a very solid business on launch alone. However it also shows that hopes of having three to five providers share that market without some serious growth are pretty thin.

[meekGee]

Year end snapshot
...

I envy you the satisfaction of moving those 61 flights to the archive and resetting the "now" line to zero...

[crandles57]

Between 18 Jan and 19 Feb we seem to know very little about the schedule. There is room for 6 or 7 launches and a large selection of possibilities.

The most certain seems to be Amazonas Nexus

Other than that there are
8 possible Starlinks 2-4 2-6 2-5 5-2 5-3 5-4 6-1 2-2 (not counting 4-24, ... for which we don't have FCC apps)
O3b mPower 3&4  and 5&6
Worldview 1&2
Inmarsat I6 F2

Probably less likely with Q1 NET launch date rather than Jan or Feb but
SARah 2&3
SES-18&19
Türksat 6A
USSF-36
SpX Oneweb 3
Nusantara Lima

Transporter-7 (NET Feb but seems rather soon with Transporter-6 due in 3 days)


Anyway perm 5 6 or 7 from 20 seems like a lot of uncertainty for 3 to 7 weeks ahead.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1609263736661082112

After a record-shattering 2022, SpaceX has even bigger plans for 2023. A goal of 100 launches, the orbital debut of Starship, multiple Falcon Heavy flights, the Polaris Program's start, and more await in the coming year.

By Justin Davenport (@Bubbinski):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2022/12/spacex-2022-2023/

[zubenelgenubi]

SFN Military officials forecast 87 launches from Florida’s Space Coast in 2023, January 2:
First of the January count is Transporter-6, launching on January 3.

SpaceX plans to launch six to seven missions from Florida in January alone, including the launch of a Falcon Heavy rocket Jan. 12 from pad 39A at Kennedy Space Center. The Falcon Heavy, made by combining three Falcon 9 rocket cores together, will loft a pair of satellites into a high-altitude geosynchronous orbit for the Space Force.

Other Falcon 9 launches on tap for January from Florida include the next launch of 40 internet satellites for OneWeb, set for Jan. 8, and the launch of a GPS navigation satellite for the Space Force on Jan. 18. SpaceX also plans to launch more batches of Starlink internet satellites and the Spanish-owned Amazonas Nexus communications satellite before the end of the month.

The January SpaceX manifest, including some of my deductions and inferences.  I've marked these with question marks.

Launched in January:
Jan 3     CCSFS SLC-40   LZ-1       Transporter-6
Jan 10   CCSFS SLC-40   LZ-1       OneWeb Fl 16
Jan 15   KSC LC-39A        LZ-1/2   USSF-67
Jan 18   CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS     GPS III-6
Jan 19   Vand SLC-4E      ASDS     Starlink 2-4
Jan 26   KSC LC-39A       ASDS     Starlink 5-2
Jan 31   Vand SLC-4E      ASDS     Starlink 2-6

Scheduled for January:
X

Perhaps in January:
X

Time is apparently available for one Starlink launch campaign each at the two Florida pads, and one or two of the same at Vandenberg.

I expect that the Falcon Heavy TEL equipment will be removed ASAP to allow Falcon 9 launches--late January and all of February?

Why the mPower satellites' processing was quicker than usual:
SFN First O3b mPOWER broadband satellites set for liftoff after quick launch campaign, December 15:

Spacecraft arrived at the Cape on December 3 for a launch then scheduled on December 13.  Successfully launched on December 16.

Looking ahead at February, launches with at least somewhat firm dates:
Feb 2 1 Jan 31    CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS   Starlink 5-3
Feb 5                     CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS   Amazonas Nexus
NET early Feb      Florida                 ASDS   Starlink 6-1
Mid/late Feb        CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS?  Inmarsat 6 F2
Feb 26                   KSC LC-39A       ASDS   Crew-6
End of Feb Jan    CCSFS SLC-40   ASDS   O3b mPower 3 and 4
NET Feb               Florida                 ASDS   Starlink 5-4
NET Feb               Vand SLC-4E      ASDS   Starlink 2-5
NET Feb               Vand SLC-4E      ASDS   Starlink 2-7

NET Feb 28          KSC LC-39A          SpX-27

Extensively edited through January, and up to February 2

[Comga]

For 2022 the consensus of our annual poll was that SpaceX would launch 40 times.
SpaceX blew right by that and launched 61 times.
Only one out of 96 guessed correctly and only one overestimated.
At one point, the traiing average of the intervals between ten launches dropped below 5 days.
That's a pace of nearly 80 per year.
The annual rate seemed to saturate around 60.

As noted, Musk says SpaceX will do 100 launches next year.
We will see if SpaceX flies fewer Starlink missions if customer payloads ramp up as expected, or keep them roughly equal and find some way to further boost capacity.
Maybe the next increase will be flights of Starship.

[litton4]

I count 51 non-Starlink missions in the latest manifest list for 2023.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg2445076#msg2445076

Healthy indeed, which, if realised and has the same ratio as this year, looks good for the 100 launch target.
Limiting factor may end up being the pad and droneship turnround?

[gongora]

I count 51 non-Starlink missions in the latest manifest list for 2023.

At the end of 2021 we had 39 non-Starlink flights listed for 2022.  They flew 27, a couple of which weren't known at the beginning of the year.

[litton4]

I count 51 non-Starlink missions in the latest manifest list for 2023.

At the end of 2021 we had 39 non-Starlink flights listed for 2022.  They flew 27, a couple of which weren't known at the beginning of the year.

Weren't some of those DoD flights that have now pushed into '23?

We shall see!

[wannamoonbase]

I count 51 non-Starlink missions in the latest manifest list for 2023.

At the end of 2021 we had 39 non-Starlink flights listed for 2022.  They flew 27, a couple of which weren't known at the beginning of the year.

Weren't some of those DoD flights that have now pushed into '23?

We shall see!

Always expect payloads to slide right on the schedule.  There will be less than 39 non-starlink flights in 2023. 

But that still makes for a very busy year.  Hence the 100 fligth Musk statement. 

I think 80-90 is probably the most that can be fit in with ASDS, weather, FH, payload issues.

VSFB needs to increase it's manifest to 24-30 as well.

[zubenelgenubi]

Falcon Heavy in the hangar at Launch Complex 39A in Florida

There is a single-stick booster in the background of the attached image.  Which one?  It's used, but that's the only clue that I see.

[spacenuance]

There is a single-stick booster in the background of the 2nd attached image.  Which one?

Hmm, maybe this booster that was heading towards 39A on the evening of the 6th. Shot in the dark, maybe 1069?

[zubenelgenubi]

SFN Launch preps underway for first of up to five Falcon Heavy missions this year, January 7:
Future Falcon Heavy launches:

SpaceX has a backlog of 12 Falcon Heavy missions over the next few years, including the five launches planned in 2023.