Quote from: lenny97 on 10/19/2022 10:09 pmQuote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/19/2022 05:24 pmAriane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913Quoteoof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬 At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.Honestly, I would be cautious with that statement of so many launches to be swapped on a Falcon 9/any other Rocket...After the CSG-2 FM2 thing, Europe is even more annoyed: now I understand that some launches COULD be swapped, but I wouldn't expect that many (Eric mentioned at least 8 different launches).We'll see but it's kinda early to write that...There ain't that many alternate medium and above launch options for ESA. Russia and China are non-viable options. While ULA, Northrop Grumman and JAXA are introducing new launchers. That leaves the ISRO with the LVM-3 (aka GSLV Mark III) that have low throw weight and low launch cadence.The SpaceX disruption of Arianespace and other launch providers will be epic if Arianespace and others can't not keep to the current revised launch schedule. It also means the Falcon family will likely not be quickly phased out when the Starship enters service.We live in an interesting time.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/19/2022 05:24 pmAriane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913Quoteoof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬 At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.Honestly, I would be cautious with that statement of so many launches to be swapped on a Falcon 9/any other Rocket...After the CSG-2 FM2 thing, Europe is even more annoyed: now I understand that some launches COULD be swapped, but I wouldn't expect that many (Eric mentioned at least 8 different launches).We'll see but it's kinda early to write that...
Ariane 6 first launch now NET Q4 2023:https://twitter.com/13ericralph31/status/1582784253620006913Quoteoof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬 At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.
oof. expect many more Ariane 6 payloads to follow Euclid and begin studying the possibility of switching to SpaceX in the near future 😬 At minimum, CSO-3, Optus-11, Electra, Uhura-1, several batches of Galileo satellites, and maybe even Viasat-3 APAC could all be affected.
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 10/19/2022 11:34 pmThe SpaceX disruption of Arianespace and other launch providers will be epic if Arianespace and others can't not keep to the current revised launch schedule. It also means the Falcon family will likely not be quickly phased out when the Starship enters service.Why? If (as is not certain) SpaceX manages to get Starhip operational for cargo, then what keeps SpaceX from providing launches on Starship for a lower price than on F9/FH? It is expensive to keep Falcon 9 operational.
The SpaceX disruption of Arianespace and other launch providers will be epic if Arianespace and others can't not keep to the current revised launch schedule. It also means the Falcon family will likely not be quickly phased out when the Starship enters service.
<snip>I wasn't debating the launcher, I was debating the viability of the swap: institutional payloads specifically...
Quote from: vaporcobra on 10/19/2022 11:12 pmI don't expect Galileo launches to be swapped, for example, but it's clear that the costs of waiting for Ariane 5/6 are beginning to outweigh the mostly political costs of avoiding months to years of delays. There was CSG-2, yes, but there is also SARah 1/2/3 and EnMAP. And now there's Eutelsat 10B, Hotbird 13F/13G (which are even part of an ESA program), and a study that may end with Euclid following them onto Falcon 9.If Eutelsat is willing to put its shareholders before its loyalty to the European launch industry, there's a good chance that other commercial customers will follow. And if ESA is willing to move Euclid to Falcon 9, even institutional payloads might no longer be a safe bet. I personally think that SpaceX will pick up 2-3 more launches as the Ariane 6 dust settles.I'm not saying that commercial launches will not be swapped, that would be simply unlikely...I'm talking more about institutional payloads. Yes Euclid is being swapped but "several batches of Galileo sats" it's a whole different thing... And I really don't expect that.Glad to be proven wrong in a year from now...
I don't expect Galileo launches to be swapped, for example, but it's clear that the costs of waiting for Ariane 5/6 are beginning to outweigh the mostly political costs of avoiding months to years of delays. There was CSG-2, yes, but there is also SARah 1/2/3 and EnMAP. And now there's Eutelsat 10B, Hotbird 13F/13G (which are even part of an ESA program), and a study that may end with Euclid following them onto Falcon 9.If Eutelsat is willing to put its shareholders before its loyalty to the European launch industry, there's a good chance that other commercial customers will follow. And if ESA is willing to move Euclid to Falcon 9, even institutional payloads might no longer be a safe bet. I personally think that SpaceX will pick up 2-3 more launches as the Ariane 6 dust settles.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/19/2022 11:55 pmQuote from: Zed_Noir on 10/19/2022 11:34 pmThe SpaceX disruption of Arianespace and other launch providers will be epic if Arianespace and others can't not keep to the current revised launch schedule. It also means the Falcon family will likely not be quickly phased out when the Starship enters service.Why? If (as is not certain) SpaceX manages to get Starhip operational for cargo, then what keeps SpaceX from providing launches on Starship for a lower price than on F9/FH? It is expensive to keep Falcon 9 operational.Think the first few years of the Starship's service life will not have a high launch tempo for what basically is a beta design. Also the Gen 2 Starlink deployment will hog most of the early flights along with Starship flights supporting the Artemis HLS lander program. So for a short transition period before Starship have a high launch cadence expect the Falcon family to be flying a lot before retirement. It isn't easy to replace the about 100 projected annual Falcon launches for the next few years.
The ink is barely dry on the Ariane delays, and…https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1583048671733878784?s=21
Just a reminder, to be pedantic, that Euclid was scheduled on a Soyuz and not an Ariane.
Quote from: lenny97 on 10/20/2022 01:27 pmJust a reminder, to be pedantic, that Euclid was scheduled on a Soyuz and not an Ariane. Euclid fact sheet (still!) says "Soyuz ST-2.1 B from Europe's Space Port, Kourou, French Guiana. Ariane 6 could be used as a back-up."Soyuz has been out of the picture for months, so based on recent expectations this is an Ariane -> Falcon switch.
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 10/20/2022 12:49 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/19/2022 11:55 pmQuote from: Zed_Noir on 10/19/2022 11:34 pmThe SpaceX disruption of Arianespace and other launch providers will be epic if Arianespace and others can't not keep to the current revised launch schedule. It also means the Falcon family will likely not be quickly phased out when the Starship enters service.Why? If (as is not certain) SpaceX manages to get Starhip operational for cargo, then what keeps SpaceX from providing launches on Starship for a lower price than on F9/FH? It is expensive to keep Falcon 9 operational.Think the first few years of the Starship's service life will not have a high launch tempo for what basically is a beta design. Also the Gen 2 Starlink deployment will hog most of the early flights along with Starship flights supporting the Artemis HLS lander program. So for a short transition period before Starship have a high launch cadence expect the Falcon family to be flying a lot before retirement. It isn't easy to replace the about 100 projected annual Falcon launches for the next few years.Before today's launch of Starlink 4-36, SpaceX has launched 47 F9 rockets this year. Starlink had been the major if not only payload for 31 of those launches (roughly 64%.) I would not be surprised to see SpaceX actually launch 100 F9/FH next year, but I would expect 65-75% of those launches being Starlink.I can see F9/FH launching 20-30 times a year for some time, even after Starship takes over the duties of launching Starlink satellites.
What's the likelihood of SpaceX announcing a last-minute Starlink mission? Specifically, one from SLC-40 prior to USSF-44?
I think I had mentioned on the Starlink 4-36 article that the next Starlink mission had been scheduled originally for this week but that it had been delayed by a month to prioritize pad work and also to give priority to the customer payloads that were coming up in November. I anticipate no launch from the Cape between now and USSF-44.
Quote from: Alexphysics on 10/24/2022 02:48 amI think I had mentioned on the Starlink 4-36 article that the next Starlink mission had been scheduled originally for this week but that it had been delayed by a month to prioritize pad work and also to give priority to the customer payloads that were coming up in November. I anticipate no launch from the Cape between now and USSF-44. I assume you mean no Starlinks from the East Coast for the month of November?Vandy is still on for this week as far as I know. (I wish it was launching every 2 weeks).SpaceX has a lot of external flights on the manifest, a month without Starlink is fine. Clear up the garage with some expendable launches and 3 RTLS boosters. November is going to be exciting.
In Q3, China's 15 launches closed the gap on SpaceX's 16, but the U.S. company still delivered nearly four times as much spacecraft mass to orbit:More in @BryceSpaceTech's latest report: https://brycetech.com/briefing
