SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[jpo234]

https://spacenews.com/south-korea-hires-spacex-to-launch-five-spy-satellites-by-2025/

South Korea has signed a contract with SpaceX to launch five spy satellites by 2025, with the first launch on a Falcon 9 rocket by the end of 2023.

It's this system: Space-Based Surveillance and Reconnaissance System

[Zed_Noir]

<snip>
Launch cadence--noting an apparent lesser usage of LC-39A in May (and maybe June, if USSF-44 is further delayed).  Starship construction work?
<snip>

Maybe a certain Orange thing at LC-39B might have something to do the paucity of launches at LC-39A during May and June.

[Alexphysics]

<snip>
Launch cadence--noting an apparent lesser usage of LC-39A in May (and maybe June, if USSF-44 is further delayed).  Starship construction work?
<snip>

Maybe a certain Orange thing at LC-39B might have something to do the paucity of launches at LC-39A during May and June.

With it rolling back next week and not rolling out until heaven knows when, I see that unlikely. My bet is more that the launches originally scheduled from 39A in May have all been delayed and they might not have enough boosters around for extra Starlinks. They're already debuting a new booster to add to the fleet and on a Starlink mission precisely to be able to have more boosters in routine rotation, they would have to do record breaking booster turnarounds to keep up with their cadence.

[zubenelgenubi]

<snip>
Launch cadence--noting an apparent lesser usage of LC-39A in May (and maybe June, if USSF-44 is further delayed).  Starship construction work?
<snip>

<snip>
My bet is more that the launches originally scheduled from 39A in May have all been delayed and they might not have enough boosters around for extra Starlinks. They're already debuting a new booster to add to the fleet and on a Starlink mission precisely to be able to have more boosters in routine rotation, they would have to do record breaking booster turnarounds to keep up with their cadence.

Would you deduce that booster refurbishment is a (or the) near-term limiting factor to launch rate?

I was surprised to learn that B1073 will join the Florida "single-stick" rotation in May.

It seems like SpaceX is whittling away at pad turnaround and ASDS turnaround times.

Payload processing time doesn't seem to be a concern.

[Asteroza]

<snip>
Launch cadence--noting an apparent lesser usage of LC-39A in May (and maybe June, if USSF-44 is further delayed).  Starship construction work?
<snip>

<snip>
My bet is more that the launches originally scheduled from 39A in May have all been delayed and they might not have enough boosters around for extra Starlinks. They're already debuting a new booster to add to the fleet and on a Starlink mission precisely to be able to have more boosters in routine rotation, they would have to do record breaking booster turnarounds to keep up with their cadence.

Would you deduce that booster refurbishment is a (or the) near-term limiting factor to launch rate?

I was surprised to learn that B1073 will join the Florida "single-stick" rotation in May.

It seems like SpaceX is whittling away at pad turnaround and ASDS turnaround times.

Payload processing time doesn't seem to be a concern.

Since payloads are nominally independent, parallel processing in theory should be easy. SpaceX is getting to the point that they can functionally launch on readiness for any customer that is good to fly right now. Musk is targeting 5 day turnaround nominal, which is pretty tight with both the ASDS tow back, and resetting the launchpad though. Plus if any customers aren't ready, there's always a Starlink stack to do...

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post; my bold:

Launch of 3 SES Networks O3b mPower sats on  SpaceX slips to early 2022 for final tests at  BoeingSpace. SES: Mid-2022 service start still good. 2nd 3-sat Falcon 9 in 2022 is expendable, drops sats closer to destination.  All 6 to arrive at ~ same time. [Oct 11, 2021] https://bit.ly/2YGp6fK

After B1049.11 was returned to the Cape from Vandenberg, and it was not used for Starlink launches, it became clear that it was being held for an expendable launch.  The second O3b mPower triplet launch was the next, known, upcoming, expendable Falcon 9 launch, so the booster and launch were linked.

But now, Next Spaceflight, updated April 23, lists the Nilesat-301 Falcon 9 first stage as 1049.11 and expendable.

Another first stage will be expended for the second O3b mPower triplet launch.

[Blackjax]

Does anyone know why oneweb is not listed on the manifest or is it just there in a way that I'm not recognizing?

[wannamoonbase]

Does anyone know why oneweb is not listed on the manifest or is it just there in a way that I'm not recognizing?

I've wondered that too, but I think it's probably that there hasn't been set dates and I don't know that they have even committed to the East or West coasts (I'm assuming West).

Probably just waiting for more information.

[scr00chy]

Does anyone know why oneweb is not listed on the manifest or is it just there in a way that I'm not recognizing?

I've wondered that too, but I think it's probably that there hasn't been set dates and I don't know that they have even committed to the East or West coasts (I'm assuming West).

Probably just waiting for more information.

We already know it's NET Summer 2022 from SLC-40

[Alexphysics]

Mission 1575, NE trajectory from Florida, NET early June
0788-EX-ST-2022

Plotting it on google maps it seems this is going a bit more north than Starlink missions tend to go but we don't know of any payload going to that kind of orbit. I wonder if we're going to see another last minute classified mission.

Edit: On a second thought, I wonder if this is for Worldview Legion...

[zubenelgenubi]

Mission 1575, NE trajectory from Florida, NET early June
0788-EX-ST-2022

Plotting it on google maps it seems this is going a bit more north than Starlink missions tend to go but we don't know of any payload going to that kind of orbit. I wonder if we're going to see another last minute classified mission.

Edit: On a second thought, I wonder if this is for Worldview Legion...

The first two Legion satellites are for SSO, are they not?  That would be a southern trajectory dog-legging off the Florida Atlantic coast?

[Alexphysics]

Mission 1575, NE trajectory from Florida, NET early June
0788-EX-ST-2022

Plotting it on google maps it seems this is going a bit more north than Starlink missions tend to go but we don't know of any payload going to that kind of orbit. I wonder if we're going to see another last minute classified mission.

Edit: On a second thought, I wonder if this is for Worldview Legion...

The first two Legion satellites are for SSO, are they not?  That would be a southern trajectory dog-legging off the Florida Atlantic coast?

There are other sats for that constellation going to mid-inclination orbits. It's either this or a DoD mission that we don't know about. The Starlink landing sites are all nicely put together whereas this one is quite a few km north

[zubenelgenubi]

I want to comment that it's too bad that the May 8 dual launches have been rescheduled.

I hope another opportunity develops soon!

[Alexphysics]

I want to comment that it's too bad that the May 8 dual launches have been rescheduled.

I hope another opportunity develops soon!

Yep, I had talked about that on twitter as well the other day. I found it funny SFN updated their website just hours after heh

[groknull]

Local	LV	Core	Ret-	.	.	Mass	.	Mis-
Est. Date,  Time/UTC	.	S/N	urn	Payload(s)	Orb	(kg)	Site	sion
------------------- .	---	------ .	---	----------------------------	--- .	-----	-----	----

[snip]

2022-04-21  1351/-4	F9	1060-12	S	Starlink 4-14	LEO	~14k	C	149
2022-04-23  0526/-4	F9	1067-4	S	CCtCap Crew-4	LEO	.	C-39A	150
2022-04-29  1727/-4	F9	1062-6	S	Starlink 4-16	LEO	~14k	C-40	151
-------------------	---	------	---	----------------------------	---	-----	-----	----

[snip]

Unless I'm missing something, the manifest entry for CCtCap Crew-4 has the wrong date and time.  As highlighted in blue above, it lists an earlier estimate of 2022-04-23 0526/-4.  It should be 2022-04-27 0352/-4.

[wannamoonbase]

Seems there is room for at least 1 more Starlink flight before the end of May to be added to the Manifest.

[Josh_from_Canada]

It was mentioned in the Starlink 4-17 webcast that SpaceX has added more than 40 missions to their manifest in the past 12 months, not including Starlink or Transporter missions

[GWR64]

EchoStar 24 / Jupiter 3 is scheduled for launch on a Falcon 9 in early 2023

https://spacenews.com/echostar-says-jupiter-3-wont-be-ready-for-2022-launch/

Somehow Falcon-9 doesn't fit the earlier article at SpaceNews:
https://spacenews.com/echostar-q4-2020/

EchoStar has selected the launch vehicle for Jupiter-3 but not yet announced it. Kaul said the large rocket selected “should limit the amount of time related to satellite orbit raising, which will assist our in-service schedule.”

I would have expected a Falcon Heavy.

[GWR64]

EchoStar 24 / Jupiter 3 is scheduled for launch on a Falcon 9 in early 2023

https://spacenews.com/echostar-says-jupiter-3-wont-be-ready-for-2022-launch/

Somehow Falcon-9 doesn't fit the earlier article at SpaceNews:
https://spacenews.com/echostar-q4-2020/

EchoStar has selected the launch vehicle for Jupiter-3 but not yet announced it. Kaul said the large rocket selected “should limit the amount of time related to satellite orbit raising, which will assist our in-service schedule.”

I would have expected a Falcon Heavy.

FCC Filing for EchoStar XXIV 2019 attachment A.pdf
https://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/download.do?attachment_key=1625879

Total Solar Pressure Area “A” = 155 m2
“M” = Dry Mass of Satellite = 5817 kg

[Alexphysics]

0881-EX-ST-2022
Mission 1590, NET late June
Low inclination with ASDS landing, North  27  47  53   West  73  50  48

Nilesat?

Nilesat 301 is now expendable. I'm guessing SES-22 will use the one for Nilesat 301 and this might be for O3b mPOWER which per SES the first mission should launch as soon as July