SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/SLDelta45/status/1466594550705639424

Congrats to SLD 45 & @SpaceX on this evening’s Starlink 4-3 launch. This launch kicks off what is sure to be a busy December, with 5 launches slated to close out the year. Without the dedication from our teammates, this high ops tempo would not be possible! #SetThePaceForSpace

That could have been phrased a little more clearly, but if I read it as Starlink 4-3 being the first of five launches in December (one of which is ULA) then no pop-up Starlink launches would be in there (which doesn't necessarily mean one couldn't occur).

[wannamoonbase]

SpaceX has quietly pulled off 4 launches in less than a month.  That surprised me after the quiet since June.

December looks pretty full and we should start filling in January.  What I'm most interested in now is when and how that FH launch fits into Q1.  LC39A will take time to transition to the FH then back to the F9.

Here's looking for a very packed and exciting manifest in 2022.

[vaporcobra]

Starlink 4-3 using B1060.9.  B1062.4 for IXPE?

Booster B1062.4 has been spotted recently at KSC with a second stage already attached, but since it wasn't used for Starlink 4-1, I'm guessing it will launch IXPE?
<snip>

Or, it could be for the next Florida Starlink launch.

The IXPE science team have been told that they have the same booster as Crew-1 which would make this B1061.5.

SpaceX really throwing us for like five loops with B1062's random appearance last month 😂 I guess... CRS-24?

[Orbiter]

Looks like B1052 (FH side booster) is now finally supporting Falcon 9 missions after over two years of waiting.

https://twitter.com/spacecoast_stve/status/1468617143671480326

Possible booster for Turksat 5B?

[wannamoonbase]

Looks like B1052 (FH side booster) is now finally supporting Falcon 9 missions after over two years of waiting.

https://twitter.com/spacecoast_stve/status/1468617143671480326

Possible booster for Turksat 5B?

Excellent news, they need some more single stick boosters in the rotation.

This may open the door to retire or fly expendable on some of the older Block 5's that are more time consuming to turn around.

[jpo234]

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1470433949344313352

Do we know whether he is talking about private crewed missions like I4 and AX-1 or does this include NASA's missions?

[vaporcobra]

Do we know whether he is talking about private crewed missions like I4 and AX-1 or does this include NASA's missions?

He's almost certainly referring to Ax-1, Crew-4, and Crew-5, with Ax-2 (as confirmed by Axiom and NASA today) as the possible fourth.

[jpo234]

Do we know whether he is talking about private crewed missions like I4 and AX-1 or does this include NASA's missions?

He's almost certainly referring to Ax-1, Crew-4, and Crew-5, with Ax-2 (as confirmed by Axiom and NASA today) as the possible fourth.

I counted the same and was wondering whether there was anything new here or not.

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/StephenClark1/status/1470783838058078208

At Euroconsult’s World Satellite Business Week, SpaceX’s Jonathan Hofeller says launches into the Starlink network’s polar orbital shell will begin “in a month or so.”

Dedicated Starlink missions so far have targeted the 53-degree, 53.2-degree, and 70-degree inclination shells.

[wannamoonbase]

My gosh, there are 40+ flights on the manifest for 2022 and that doesn’t include most of the Starlink flights.

SpaceX is going to keep the Operations staff and those 3 ASDS’ very busy.  This is going to be really exciting.

IMO if they hit an annual average of 52 flights with the F9/FH that maybe the upper limit for the architecture and pad constraints.

No wonder ESA is concern about SpaceX.

[Conexion Espacial]

My gosh, there are 40+ flights on the manifest for 2022 and that doesn’t include most of the Starlink flights.

SpaceX is going to keep the Operations staff and those 3 ASDS’ very busy.  This is going to be really exciting.

IMO if they hit an annual average of 52 flights with the F9/FH that maybe the upper limit for the architecture and pad constraints.

No wonder ESA is concern about SpaceX.

Let's not forget new boosters, those being converted and landing zones, it's going to be a big year for 2022.

[ZachS09]

Is there a possibility to launch 60 Starlink v1.5 satellites on an expendable booster?

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53788.msg2308971#msg2308971

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53788.msg2310314#msg2310314

Using the two above forum posts as references, if each Starlink v1.5 sat is 294 kilograms and 53 of them (15,582 kg) are nearly equivalent to the 60-count of v1.0 satellites (15,600 kg), then 60 of them would equal around 17,640 kg. That's way over the mass limit of allowable Stage 1 recovery.

Therefore, if SpaceX wants to send an old booster off, they can try this type of mission and get a few more Starlinks in orbit that way.

[zubenelgenubi]

We could see another 1-2-3 launch scenario in early January: LC-39A Starlink, Vandenberg polar Starlink, SLC-40 Transporter-3.

It could very well become SpaceX Standard Operating Procedure in 2022, when circumstances allow.  Perhaps some labor force and resources advantages?  🤔  Especially for no Static Fire Starlink launches.

Example: Encourage folks to take leave during a somewhat predictable lull in their sector of the launch campaign cycle.

Thinking as a scheduling manager.

Repost/update:
[Starlink 4-4] Falcon 9 launch is at December 18 12:41 UTC.

15 hours, 17 minutes later, the Turksat 5B Falcon 9 will launch at Dec 19 03:58 UTC.

54 hours, 12 minutes after the second launch, the Dragon SpX-24 Falcon 9 will launch at Dec 21 10:06 UTC.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

Cross-post; an interesting possibility; my bold:

F9 launch from Florida NET January 10 with no droneship shown
1811-EX-ST-2021

Nextspaceflight has Transporter-3 on/NET that Jan 10 date.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX

but no droneship?
or is that just 'no droneship *shown*'?

Interesting, you might be onto something.

My guess is SpaceX might be planning on adding a bunch of Starlink sats to the Transporter stack and then fly expendable with B1049.11 which is the oldest booster in the fleet. Elon has said in the past that the older boosters are a pain in the butt to refurbish because they don't have many of the upgrades that the newer boosters have received.

As opposed to the hypothesis that B1049's final and expendable launch will serve the second O3b satellite triplet, bound for MEO (Medium Earth Orbit), later in 2022.  That launch is already known to be expendable.

A thought.
SpaceX could use "high-milage" first stages for Transporter-3 and Starlink launches in January.

Hypothetical:
next Florida Starlink, in early January, from LC-39A: 1058.10, previously launched Nov 13.

Transporter-3, January 10, SLC-40, including multiple Starlink satellites?: 1049.11 expended, previously launched Sept 14.

next Vandenberg Starlink, mid to late January: 1051.12, previously launched Dec 18.

another Florida Starlink, mid or late January: 1060.10, previously launched Dec 2.

CSG-2, late January: lower reflight amount booster; 1052.3, 1061.6, or 1062.4.

NROL-87, from Vandenberg, February: 1063.4, previously launched Nov 24.

[gongora]

We could see another 1-2-3 launch scenario in early January: LC-39A Starlink, Vandenberg polar Starlink, SLC-40 Transporter-3.

or maybe Transporter-3 is the next SpaceX flight and there may not even be a Vandenberg launch in January?  We'll see.

[wannamoonbase]

Is it just me that a 5 launch month still feels like not enough?

I feel the 5 launches is grabbing one from December or February and that a steady state of 4 east coast launches is probably what they can sustain over time. 

Now throw in the west coast and maybe 5-6 is possible

[vaporcobra]

I feel the 5 launches is grabbing one from December or February and that a steady state of 4 east coast launches is probably what they can sustain over time. 

That's more a question of whether SpaceX has the payloads to support that cadence. They unequivocally have the boosters and pads to support 5-6 launches per month - and 5 just on the East Coast. For example, excluding the possibility of broken turnaround records, LC-40 should be ready for a February launch as early as Feb 6th or 7th and 39A NET Feb 8th or 9th if CSG-2 and Starlink 4-7 launch on Jan 27th and Jan 29th - effectively opening the door for a repeat of January.

The only real uncertainty is drone ship availability and Starlink production. SpaceX will only be able to launch 5+ times in Feb if JRTI can return to full operational duty by the middle of the month.

[AC in NC]

I feel the 5 launches is grabbing one from December or February and that a steady state of 4 east coast launches is probably what they can sustain over time. 

That's more a question of whether SpaceX has the payloads to support that cadence. They unequivocally have the boosters and pads to support 5-6 launches per month - and 5 just on the East Coast. For example, excluding the possibility of broken turnaround records, LC-40 should be ready for a February launch as early as Feb 6th or 7th and 39A NET Feb 8th or 9th if CSG-2 and Starlink 4-7 launch on Jan 27th and Jan 29th - effectively opening the door for a repeat of January.

The only real uncertainty is drone ship availability and Starlink production. SpaceX will only be able to launch 5+ times in Feb if JRTI can return to full operational duty by the middle of the month.

What about 2nd Stages?  Have we ever had confirmation of what cadence Stage 2 production rate could support?

[schaban]

Don’t think would be a problem
One booster approx equal 3 second stages in production
Last year before reuse spaces flew 17 boosters. Presuming production rate equal to it that is 51 additional second stages
68 total
Now they produced 5 boosters last year?
Subtract and you still get 50 2nd stages per year

[vaporcobra]

I feel the 5 launches is grabbing one from December or February and that a steady state of 4 east coast launches is probably what they can sustain over time. 

That's more a question of whether SpaceX has the payloads to support that cadence. They unequivocally have the boosters and pads to support 5-6 launches per month - and 5 just on the East Coast. For example, excluding the possibility of broken turnaround records, LC-40 should be ready for a February launch as early as Feb 6th or 7th and 39A NET Feb 8th or 9th if CSG-2 and Starlink 4-7 launch on Jan 27th and Jan 29th - effectively opening the door for a repeat of January.

The only real uncertainty is drone ship availability and Starlink production. SpaceX will only be able to launch 5+ times in Feb if JRTI can return to full operational duty by the middle of the month.

What about 2nd Stages?  Have we ever had confirmation of what cadence Stage 2 production rate could support?

H1 2021 (26 launches) all but confirmed that SpaceX is capable of producing at least one upper stage a week and ~50 launches is about what I expect this year, if all goes well. So basically 2021 but with a far busier commercial manifest and (hopefully) no Starlink production woes to cause an abrupt slowdown in H2.