SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1430302841202089984

Shotwell says one supply chain issue for SpaceX is a lack of liquid oxygen because of demands to treat COVID-19 patients. Will impact launch plans, she says. #SpaceSymposium

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1430302841202089984

Shotwell says one supply chain issue for SpaceX is a lack of liquid oxygen because of demands to treat COVID-19 patients. Will impact launch plans, she says. #SpaceSymposium

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1430778850825355269

This is a risk, but not yet a limiting factor

[Yiosie]

South Korea's CAS500-4 satellite to be launched by SpaceX.

SpaceX to launch Korea’s midsize satellite in 2023

SpaceX will send South Korea’s next-generation midsize satellite into orbit in 2023, Korea Aerospace Industries said Sunday.

KAI, the nation’s sole aircraft manufacturer, which developed KF-21 fighters, plans to launch four midsize satellites by 2025 -- No. 2 in 2022, No. 3 and No. 4 in 2023 and No. 5 in 2025. SpaceX rocket will carry the No. 4 into orbit, which will monitor Korean agriculture.

KAI selected SpaceX in an open bidding. Though the launch will take place in the US, many details remain unclear at the moment, including the size of the deal and the type of SpaceX rocket.

The launch of midsize satellite No. 1 in March was conducted by the state-run Korea Aerospace Research Institute. Starting from the launch of satellite No. 2, which will be the first one in Korea led by the private sector, KAI will be responsible for the development of the four satellites’ system design, body development, manufacture, assembly, test and actual launch.

[vaporcobra]

Worth noting that SpaceX has a significant challenge coming up for Pad 39A operations. Inspiration4 is scheduled to launch NET Sept 14/15, followed by USSF-44 NET Oct 9 and Crew-3 NET Oct 31. That gives SpaceX about three weeks to reconfigure 39A for Falcon Heavy's static fire rollout (likely around Oct 2-5). Then, after USSF-44, SpaceX will have a little over two weeks to re-reconfigure 39A and the T/E for Crew-3, which likely needs to roll out around Oct 26 to make the 31st.

I can't quite remember if we had any official comments about the minimum time needed to switch between 39A configs but the best data we have for Crew Dragon -> FH is the ~40-day turnaround between Demo-1 and Arabsat 6A. SpaceX has also routinely swapped between Dragon 2 and fairing configs in less than a month and once in just 11 days.

[Rebel44]

Worth noting that SpaceX has a significant challenge coming up for Pad 39A operations. Inspiration4 is scheduled to launch NET Sept 14/15, followed by USSF-44 NET Oct 9 and Crew-3 NET Oct 31. That gives SpaceX about three weeks to reconfigure 39A for Falcon Heavy's static fire rollout (likely around Oct 2-5). Then, after USSF-44, SpaceX will have a little over two weeks to re-reconfigure 39A and the T/E for Crew-3, which likely needs to roll out around Oct 26 to make the 31st.

I can't quite remember if we had any official comments about the minimum time needed to switch between 39A configs but the best data we have for Crew Dragon -> FH is the ~40-day turnaround between Demo-1 and Arabsat 6A. SpaceX has also routinely swapped between Dragon 2 and fairing configs in less than a month and once in just 11 days.

It is possible that the recent 2-month launch pause allowed SpaceX to make preparations to accomodate this series of missions.

[alugobi]

It is possible that the recent 2-month launch pause allowed SpaceX to make preparations to accomodate this series of missions.

But then they flew a bunch of peeps to Boca Chica to work on the launch site there, likely the very same crew who would have been working on the Cape infrastructure if your speculation were to be true.  I think we'll have to wait to see how or whether they pull this off on that schedule.

[wannamoonbase]

It is possible that the recent 2-month launch pause allowed SpaceX to make preparations to accomodate this series of missions.

But then they flew a bunch of peeps to Boca Chica to work on the launch site there, likely the very same crew who would have been working on the Cape infrastructure if your speculation were to be true.  I think we'll have to wait to see how or whether they pull this off on that schedule.

I think that fits in their turnaround ability. What if anything is going on at SLC40 at that time may impact it as well.

Both the FH and Crew dates are more subject to change than most payloads.  Defense payloads have the tendency to slip.

Nice to see Florida flights picking up though.

It will be interesting to see when the first Florida launch happens with Starlink with lasers, or if the push will be to fly as many as possible out of VSFB.

[GWR64]

crossposting  SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread

CSG-2 is listed by most manifests as launching on Vega-C.  A recent filing for ground station support shows it as launching on a Falcon 9 from Florida NET November.  A document on the Italian Space Agency's site that has a 2021 date shows it as launching before the end of 2021.

In an older pdf from Oct. 26 2020, for CSG-2 a launch date in May 2021 in Kourou was called.
I suspect with Soyuz, as @Salo once had on schedule. (for a short time )
I think in October 2020 it was already clear that a second Vega-C would not be ready for a launch in May 2021.
A few weeks ago (?) there was a message in the Russian media, Roscosmos would have refused a launch order because no launcher was available. Maybe it was about CSG-2.
(the Soyuz that launched Falcon Eye 2 is missing now, maybe)
It's amazing how quickly they got a launch date at SpaceX.

The outdated PDF as attachment.

[FLHerne]

crossposting  SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread

CSG-2 is listed by most manifests as launching on Vega-C.  A recent filing for ground station support shows it as launching on a Falcon 9 from Florida NET November.  A document on the Italian Space Agency's site that has a 2021 date shows it as launching before the end of 2021.

In an older pdf from Oct. 26 2020, for CSG-2 a launch date in May 2021 in Kourou was called.
I suspect with Soyuz, as @Salo once had on schedule. (for a short time )
I think in October 2020 it was already clear that a second Vega-C would not be ready for a launch in May 2021.
A few weeks ago (?) there was a message in the Russian media, Roscosmos would have refused a launch order because no launcher was available. Maybe it was about CSG-2.
(the Soyuz that launched Falcon Eye 2 is missing now, maybe)
It's amazing how quickly they got a launch date at SpaceX.

I wondered if this could be a rideshare with IXPE, which is very light and has a latest public NET of November 17th.

...but that's going to an inclination of 0° and this is to 97°, so probably not!

[M.E.T.]

Eh…is SpaceX really not launching anything else for the rest of September, or are the dates for the next West Coast Starlink launches simply not publicised at this time?

[gongora]

I would guess they're done for September.  They just did 3 launches in 3 weeks, that's not so bad after the 2 month layoff.

[Lars-J]

Worth noting that SpaceX has a significant challenge coming up for Pad 39A operations. Inspiration4 is scheduled to launch NET Sept 14/15, followed by USSF-44 NET Oct 9 and Crew-3 NET Oct 31. That gives SpaceX about three weeks to reconfigure 39A for Falcon Heavy's static fire rollout (likely around Oct 2-5). Then, after USSF-44, SpaceX will have a little over two weeks to re-reconfigure 39A and the T/E for Crew-3, which likely needs to roll out around Oct 26 to make the 31st.

I can't quite remember if we had any official comments about the minimum time needed to switch between 39A configs but the best data we have for Crew Dragon -> FH is the ~40-day turnaround between Demo-1 and Arabsat 6A. SpaceX has also routinely swapped between Dragon 2 and fairing configs in less than a month and once in just 11 days.

It is possible that the recent 2-month launch pause allowed SpaceX to make preparations to accomodate this series of missions.

Since the FH core booster was seen right next to the Inspiration Dragon in the integration building, it would suggest (but not prove) that they are going to try to launch the FH before the next crew flight.

[TrevorMonty]

CSG-2 is listed by most manifests as launching on Vega-C.  A recent filing for ground station support shows it as launching on a Falcon 9 from Florida NET November.  A document on the Italian Space Agency's site that has a 2021 date shows it as launching before the end of 2021.

confirmation
https://www.asi.it/en/earth-science/cosmo-skymed/

...The second COSMO SkyMed Second Generation satellite (CSG-2) was planned to be launched with VEGA-C within 2021, but the launcher development has been impacted by the VV15 and VV17 failures and, above all, by the COVID pandemic. The delays, postponing the VEGA-C Maiden Flight to Q1 2022, with a consequent tight schedule of launches in 2022, made the  launch period of CSG-2 no longer compatible with the needs of the COSMO Mission. Since Arianespace backlog was already full on Soyuz and Ariane systems in 2021, it was not possible to have a European back-up solution compliant with the CSG-2 schedule, thus an alternative solution with the US provider SPACE X has been adopted allowing to keep the CSG-2 launch within the current year. ...

Easy enough for SpaceX fit this in their launch schedule. Just reassign a Starlink F9 US and fairing to this launch, may need to find low flight rate booster. Postponing a Starlink launch for paying customer is good PR and keeps accountants happy.


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[Comga]

Cross Post

Launch of 3 @SES_Networks #O3bmPower sats on @SpaceX slips to early 2022 for final tests at  @BoeingSpace. SES: Mid-2022 service start still good. 2nd 3-sat Falcon 9 in 2022 is expendable, drops sats closer to destination.  All 6 to arrive at ~ same time.https://bit.ly/2YGp6fK

my emphasis
"Expendable" now seems odd and archaic.

[alugobi]

I wonder what the premium is for that.

[Thorny]

I wonder what the premium is for that.

Maybe none if it is an "end-of-life" booster.

[zubenelgenubi]

What Falcon first stages do we know or deduce are at Vandenberg?

1049
1051? (VSFB arrival circa September 1)
1063

Any others?

Edited through October 14.

[ZachS09]

I believe B1051 is also at Vandenberg.

[wannamoonbase]

Cross Post

Launch of 3 @SES_Networks #O3bmPower sats on @SpaceX slips to early 2022 for final tests at  @BoeingSpace. SES: Mid-2022 service start still good. 2nd 3-sat Falcon 9 in 2022 is expendable, drops sats closer to destination.  All 6 to arrive at ~ same time.https://bit.ly/2YGp6fK

my emphasis
"Expendable" now seems odd and archaic.

It sure does and it’s a shame one will be wasted.  But I can appreciate the full out performance.  The telemetry on the first stage maybe fun to compare to other flights.

[scr00chy]

What Falcon first stages do we know or deduce are at Vandenberg?

1049
1063

Any others?

B1049 has apparently left California shortly after Starlink 2-1:
https://twitter.com/TGMetsFan98/status/1447618259390537731