SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[cwr]

Is this the next Starlink mission from Florida, or could there still be another before this one?

Recapitalization of range assets is underway. It depends on when it will be completed.

The lack of a TFR indicates the 12 July launch is pushed back.

I have no special knowledge, but I seem to recollect that this exercise happens each year
around this time. If memory serves it typically lasts 1-2 weeks.

Do we know when it started this year? Maybe July 1st or July 6th?

thanks

Carl

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Is this the next Starlink mission from Florida, or could there still be another before this one?

Recapitalization of range assets is underway. It depends on when it will be completed.

The lack of a TFR indicates the 12 July launch is pushed back.

I have no special knowledge, but I seem to recollect that this exercise happens each year
around this time. If memory serves it typically lasts 1-2 weeks.

Do we know when it started this year? Maybe July 1st or July 6th?

thanks

Carl

Considering that Starliner OFT-2 is 31 July it should be finished about a week before that or around 24 July. Putting if it started as late as this week on the 6th finishing on the 20th is about right. Gives a few days leeway if needed.

Such that a launch at 3 or 4 days before OFT-2 is a likely date of 27 or 28 July for a Starlink launch.

[crandles57]

Is this the next Starlink mission from Florida, or could there still be another before this one?

Recapitalization of range assets is underway. It depends on when it will be completed.

The lack of a TFR indicates the 12 July launch is pushed back.

I have no special knowledge, but I seem to recollect that this exercise happens each year
around this time. If memory serves it typically lasts 1-2 weeks.

Do we know when it started this year? Maybe July 1st or July 6th?

thanks

Carl

Considering that Starliner OFT-2 is 31 July it should be finished about a week before that or around 24 July. Putting if it started as late as this week on the 6th finishing on the 20th is about right. Gives a few days leeway if needed.

Such that a launch at 3 or 4 days before OFT-2 is a likely date of 27 or 28 July for a Starlink launch.

FCC application for polar LEO from East Coast from 26th July fits with that.
https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=108366&RequestTimeout=1000
Has that been approved?

OTOH
https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1410322653160804356
includes "there will be at most one Falcon 9 launch in July" which I was guessing was VSFB Starlink launch 30 July if that isn't delayed into August.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

They need to launch out of the Cape whenever the weather is good for a week. July weather is bad but August and September weather is worse. So if the last week of July is to have decent weather. No tropical storms or even significant fronts moving through. Then they should do a launch. Because the likelihood of being able to do a launch in July and August because of weather is <75% chance and September is lower. October is better but not much better since tropical storms and fronts are still very active during that month too. NOTE that in a high storm count year which 2021 is supposedly one of those. Having good weather to be able to launch in July through October is scarce.

Fortunately for the Cape is that Elsa occurred causing wind and cloud disturbances in central florida and the East coast this past week coincided with the Eastern Range down time for "recalibration". So got lucky that bad weather occurrence did not interfere much in operations other than for the retrieval and landing of CRS-22.

[Jansen]

I have no special knowledge, but I seem to recollect that this exercise happens each year
around this time. If memory serves it typically lasts 1-2 weeks.

Do we know when it started this year? Maybe July 1st or July 6th?

Usually 2-4 weeks, depending on what needs to be done.

The last information I had was regarding significant schedule risk due to Elsa. A lot of the work involves outdoor equipment and only so much can be worked around.

I might have more information later this week.

[crandles57]

Nextspaceflight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/?search=SpaceX

now has no July launches. 

[FutureSpaceTourist]

No idea if the following is accurate about the current launch hiatus:

https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1417150526593118216

Still no firm word yet from SpaceX on when its next Falcon 9 launch will take place. They were launching so frequently earlier this year the 19 day (and counting) stretch since the last one seems like a lot longer.

twitter.com/alejandro_debh/status/1417154312799653893

As I understand it, part of the reason is also the preparation of assets for the next batches of Starlink satellites as well as having no customers ready to fly this month. Per Elon, next batches of Starlinks will be the "v1.5" version, then onto version 2 next year

https://twitter.com/alejandro_debh/status/1417154632837746688

These batches will fill shells 3 and 4 at 70º inclinations (near polar orbits) that will be launched from Vandenberg and the Cape. It's also to be expected that the naming will reset with these launches as well so fasten your seatbelt for more naming fights on twitter

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Suggestion of a Starlink launch beginning of August?

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1418336291259785216

If OFT-2 doesn’t launch on July 30, next opportunity would be Aug. 3 because of a range conflict. OFT-2 can also launch and attempt ISS docking even if the Nauka module has not yet arrived.

[gongora]

Suggestion of a Starlink launch beginning of August?

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1418336291259785216

If OFT-2 doesn’t launch on July 30, next opportunity would be Aug. 3 because of a range conflict. OFT-2 can also launch and attempt ISS docking even if the Nauka module has not yet arrived.

They said there was a range conflict on July 31, didn't say what it was.

[tesh90]

It seems that they are cutting it very, very, very fine to launch Booster+Starship at the end of this month... And, as currently nothing is actually finished, what are the chances they launch next month - 50:50 or < 50:50?

  Orbital launch pad
  The launch tower
  The relevant space ship
  The relevant booster
  The Raptors

They could be really close to finishing on all of the above (I cannot tell tbh) but just thinking logistically, lets say, they finish up the above in 2 weeks time... they would still have to move the current booster, cairns and other equipment currently there out, move and test the starship and booster separately, and then stack the starship onto the booster and then launch... all in the remaining 2-3 weeks.

I guess they could move the Booster and Starship out to the launch pad and test them to static fire while they continue to finish the orbital launch pad and tower, which potentially saves a bit of time by removing a potential bottle neck.

Early Sept?

p.s. there's also the small matter of the licence to launch...

[abaddon]

It seems that they are cutting it very, very, very fine to launch Booster+Starship at the end of this month... And, as currently nothing is actually finished, what are the chances they launch next month - 50:50 or < 50:50?

Zero.

[gongora]

Starship prototype launch discussion should probably be in that forum section.

[wannamoonbase]

It's starting to feel like we are never going to see a Falcon 9 flight again.

Although I assume once they start up the next round of Starlinks that we'll return to a flight cadence of 10-14 days.

[M.E.T.]

So apologies if bits and pieces of the answer might be buried across various preceding pages of this thread.

Can anyone provide the latest understanding of why SpaceX had no F9 launches in August and appears to only have one at the very end of the month?

I understand that July was lost to range maintenance, but what is the general consensus about the loss of August?

Customers not being ready? Starlink sats also not being ready? (Which seems weird given the backlog they had supposedly produced up to now).

Or some other constraints? (Like they only want to launch v1.5 Starlink sats from now on, and those not being ready yet.)🤷‍♂️

Thanks in advance for your time.

[cuddihy]

Half the pad crew is at Boca Chica finishing “stage zero?”

[gongora]

FWIW I never bought "range maintenance" as a reason for not launching at all in July, and I didn't believe there were hundreds of Starlinks sitting around waiting to be launched.  Probably a combination of pad maintenance, ship maintenance, no external customer missions waiting at the moment, and Starlink not being quite as high a priority for a bit as they launched enough to finish the first shell and get ready for the next shells.  Boca Chica does seem to have soaked up a lot of employees lately, but management (aka Elon) apparently didn't think other tasks they could be doing were higher priority at the moment.

[SpaceDave]

FWIW I never bought "range maintenance" as a reason for not launching at all in July, and I didn't believe there were hundreds of Starlinks sitting around waiting to be launched.  Probably a combination of pad maintenance, ship maintenance, no external customer missions waiting at the moment, and Starlink not being quite as high a priority for a bit as they launched enough to finish the first shell and get ready for the next shells.  Boca Chica does seem to have soaked up a lot of employees lately, but management (aka Elon) apparently didn't think other tasks they could be doing were higher priority at the moment.

I can’t speak to some of the other questions you raise, but I can assure you that KSC and CCSFS as a whole were no-go for launches for most of the month of July due to maintenance and upgrades on shared infrastructure.

[scr00chy]

EnMAP to launch in 2022 on Falcon 9:

https://www.dlr.de/eoc/en/desktopdefault.aspx/tabid-5514/20470_read-47899/

It's fairly small and light, and launching to SSO. Could this fly on a Transporter mission?

[crandles57]

Does this make sense?

I watched Gwynne speak at the Space Warfighting Industry Forum yesterday. 
...
Need to get over the chip hump and think they will in October.
Standing down on F9 Starlink launches…waiting on building more sats with newer laser terminals.

If they are waiting on the building of more sats, would they have known that and not requested polar launch orbits from VSFB & Florida from July?

Is the chip hump for satellites or terminals?

Perhaps they were hoping chips to make the sats would become available but the chip shortage has lasted longer than they hoped?

[gongora]

If they are waiting on the building of more sats, would they have known that and not requested polar launch orbits from VSFB & Florida from July?

The permits are good for six months, if you run out of time you just file new ones, and if you don't end up using them it's not that big a deal.