SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[mandrewa]

For people excited for 5 or 6 launches in June and continuing rapid pace, how do you interpret this:

But the launch of the 60 newest Starlinks Wednesday could be the last dedicated Starlink mission to take off from Florida’s Space Coast, at least for a while. The next Falcon 9 rocket fully loaded with Starlink satellites is scheduled to launch in July from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/05/28/five-launches-planned-from-floridas-space-coast-in-june/

Will take a while for asds to get to Vandenberg, looking late July or even August for next Starlink from West coast. Quote therefore seems to imply no Florida starlink launches in at least June and July.

So what is SpaceX going to launch in July and August?
A polar starlink in each of July and August, and CRS-23. Just 3 launches is 2 months?

That would seem surprisingly low.

Is that quote just unduly pessimistic and starlink missions from Florida will continue in July and August after just a brief break in June for 4 non starlink launches? (Perhaps at reduced rate while only 1 ASDS on East coast.)

From the same article:

There are no drone ships for booster landings currently on the West Coast, but SpaceX could transfer one of the two landing vessels based in Florida to a California port. SpaceX is also readying a third drone ship for its debut, perhaps later this year.

This is a speculation.  We do not know that JRTI is being moved to Vandenberg.  It's possible but it's also possible that A Shortfall of Gravitas is about to be deployed.

[AndrewRG10]

This is a speculation.  We do not know that JRTI is being moved to Vandenberg.  It's possible but it's also possible that A Shortfall of Gravitas is about to be deployed.

My understanding is that JRTI and ASOG are too wide to fit through the Panama canal with the new thrusters.

[SMS]

https://twitter.com/SpaceNosey/status/1400535164715941894

[cpushack]

https://twitter.com/SpaceNosey/status/1400535164715941894

These diagrams will get messier ig they show the parts they use from one Dragon on another (CRS-22 Heatsheild was apparently liberated from the DM-2 capsule)

[Orbiter]

Sounding like OCISLY is leaving Port Canaveral and heading to the West Coast here soon.

https://twitter.com/SpaceXFleet/status/1401592220571082760

Unless ASOG can be ready in time for OCISLY to leave, there might only be one droneship at the Cape for a few weeks.

Maybe Transporter-2 will be an RTLS with no Starlinks? That's the only way I could foresee that one happening on June 24.

[Jansen]

Maybe Transporter-2 will be an RTLS with no Starlinks? That's the only way I could foresee that one happening on June 24.

The current paperwork filed is for a RTLS recovery.

[crandles57]

Maybe Transporter-2 will be an RTLS with no Starlinks? That's the only way I could foresee that one happening on June 24.

The current paperwork filed is for a RTLS recovery.

If JRTI can do SXM-8 on 6th June and GPSIII-05 on 17th June, and Transporter 2 is RTLS, then even with just one drone ship, they could do starlink launches about 1 every 11/12 days, starting around 29th June?

Maybe even that "slow" pace wont last long if ASOG is nearly ready as indicated at
https://spaceexplored.com/2021/06/05/exclusive-new-photos-of-a-shortfall-of-gravitas-show-spacexs-new-droneship-is-getting-close-to-done/

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

An ASDS for the west coast is only half the problem. Also need a booster at VAFB. A booster could be shipped from the Cape to VAFB but at this point it would likely not able to support a launch from VAFB even if it shipped out tomorrow for a month and a half or NET mid July. A new booster has first to go through its acceptance testing then shipped out and then worked up (takes about 20 days at least once it arrives at a destination) before it would do a launch. Or at this point likely end of July or even August.

So just how long would it take to transfer OCISLY from the Cape to VAFB. My current estimates is there is about just less than 2 months before everything else is ready for which OSCILY would then be needed to support the catching of a booster.


The other thing getting me scratching my head is 39A sitting idle for what it seems like some 3 weeks at least or even longer. If OCISLY is ready to go back out then a launch of a Starlink sats L29 could be done around the 13th off of 39A. There is 3 booster that should all be available to choose from. Specifically 1058 which has done <28 day turnaround before. Booster 1049 40 days and 1051 35 days.

[gongora]

An ASDS for the west coast is only half the problem. Also need a booster at VAFB. A booster could be shipped from the Cape to VAFB but at this point it would likely not able to support a launch from VAFB even if it shipped out tomorrow

A booster was already sent west.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

An ASDS for the west coast is only half the problem. Also need a booster at VAFB. A booster could be shipped from the Cape to VAFB but at this point it would likely not able to support a launch from VAFB even if it shipped out tomorrow

A booster was already sent west.

Had to go back and catch up on the booster movement info. So 1049 has been in VAFB for more than a week. Such that it would be ready to do a launch come 1 July. So OCISLY is going to be late to the party then.

Any latest info on when ASOG will be moving out to the Cape? Otherwise best possible support for ASDS needed is once every 8 days or more. They could practically just launch off of LC40 launching Starlinks 1 every 10 days for 3 launches in 30 days for July and August. And that a Starlink L29 could launch approximately 10 days after the GPS III (NET) June 27th.

[Lars-J]

An ASDS for the west coast is only half the problem. Also need a booster at VAFB. A booster could be shipped from the Cape to VAFB but at this point it would likely not able to support a launch from VAFB even if it shipped out tomorrow

A booster was already sent west.

Had to go back and catch up on the booster movement info. So 1049 has been in VAFB for more than a week. Such that it would be ready to do a launch come 1 July. So OCISLY is going to be late to the party then.

Any latest info on when ASOG will be moving out to the Cape? Otherwise best possible support for ASDS needed is once every 8 days or more. They could practically just launch off of LC40 launching Starlinks 1 every 10 days for 3 launches in 30 days for July and August. And that a Starlink L29 could launch approximately 10 days after the GPS III (NET) June 27th.

Another possibility is that they do RTLS with a reduced number of Starlinks until a drone ship arrives on the west coast.

[butters]

My read is that SpaceX's Cape operation is dropping from two pads and two droneships to one pad (LC-40) and one droneship (JRTI) from now until CRS-23 in mid-August. The first mid-inclination shell being fully deployed, OCISLY and the Starlink campaign are moving to the west coast in July. I suspect SpaceX will take advantage of a relative lull in Cape launch operations to do HLS-related work at LC-39A.

[StraumliBlight]

An ASDS for the west coast is only half the problem. Also need a booster at VAFB. A booster could be shipped from the Cape to VAFB but at this point it would likely not able to support a launch from VAFB even if it shipped out tomorrow

Seeing as OCISLY's wings wont be removed for the Panama canal trip, they could shave a week off by sailing directly to the starlink landing zone instead of Port of LA.

[Fmedici]

Any news about the NationSat satellite? (here for reference). It was supposed to be launched in 2021 but I haven't heard anything about it in a while.

[klod]

Any news about the NationSat satellite? (here for reference). It was supposed to be launched in 2021 but I haven't heard anything about it in a while.

q2 2022 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49956.msg2246041#msg2246041

[Fmedici]

Any news about the NationSat satellite? (here for reference). It was supposed to be launched in 2021 but I haven't heard anything about it in a while.

q2 2022 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49956.msg2246041#msg2246041

That's a different one, even if it's cited in that same article. I'm talking about NationSat of Saturn Satellite Network.

[wannamoonbase]

My read is that SpaceX's Cape operation is dropping from two pads and two droneships to one pad (LC-40) and one droneship (JRTI) from now until CRS-23 in mid-August. The first mid-inclination shell being fully deployed, OCISLY and the Starlink campaign are moving to the west coast in July. I suspect SpaceX will take advantage of a relative lull in Cape launch operations to do HLS-related work at LC-39A.

One thing we may have already forgotten is the delayed FH flight.  That would have taken up a lot of LC39A's time.  The ASDS fleet movement and the June/July schedule may have been set months ago.

The addition of ASOG on the east coast and a monthly flight from VSFB is going to be fun.

[Jansen]

My read is that SpaceX's Cape operation is dropping from two pads and two droneships to one pad (LC-40) and one droneship (JRTI) from now until CRS-23 in mid-August. The first mid-inclination shell being fully deployed, OCISLY and the Starlink campaign are moving to the west coast in July. I suspect SpaceX will take advantage of a relative lull in Cape launch operations to do HLS-related work at LC-39A.

One thing we may have already forgotten is the delayed FH flight.  That would have taken up a lot of LC39A's time.  The ASDS fleet movement and the June/July schedule may have been set months ago.

SpaceX’s schedule is very responsive and flexible. The FH launch in July required two ASDS for side booster recovery. The shift from July to October creates an opportunity for Starlink.

[Jansen]

Any news about the NationSat satellite? (here for reference). It was supposed to be launched in 2021 but I haven't heard anything about it in a while.

q2 2022 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49956.msg2246041#msg2246041

Nilesat is a completely different company.

Nationsat was supposed to be on a rideshare with Interspunik. They also had a contract with NG on Omega.

No confirmation they had a signed contract with SpaceX. They were supposed to have a launch in Q2 2021 but nothing concrete.

They have made a few purchases and signed some agreements but no mentions of a launch since 2019.

www.parabolicarc.com/2020/12/17/apollo-fusion-propulsion-systems-selected-by-saturn-satellite-networks/

[gongora]

Any news about the NationSat satellite? (here for reference). It was supposed to be launched in 2021 but I haven't heard anything about it in a while.

q2 2022 https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=49956.msg2246041#msg2246041

Nilesat is a completely different company.

Nationsat was supposed to be on a rideshare with Interspunik. They also had a contract with NG on Omega.

No confirmation they had a signed contract with SpaceX. They were supposed to have a launch in Q2 2021 but nothing concrete.

They have made a few purchases and signed some agreements but no mentions of a launch since 2019.

www.parabolicarc.com/2020/12/17/apollo-fusion-propulsion-systems-selected-by-saturn-satellite-networks/

The first Nationsat was supposed to be for Intersputnik, not a rideshare with another Intersputnik payload.  I haven't heard anything about progress on that program, I wouldn't be surprised if it's no longer happening.