SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[AndrewRG10]

ADDED:
Situation on Boosters and pads going into June.
Boosters available for use likely by:
1060.8 -  26 May...

...There is still in my mind at least as to whether 1063 is really at the Cape vs still being in VAFB. We will know soon if it shows up on L28 on 26 May.
If it is at the Cape then

I don't think I've seen any evidence of B1063 being moved from the Cape to VAFB. In fact, I don't think there is evidence of any boosters moving west, only moving east such as when B1063 arrived or more recently B1067.
And plus Nextspaceflight has confirmed B1063, and I don't remember a time nextspaceflight was wrong this close to launch.

[Jansen]

...There is still in my mind at least as to whether 1063 is really at the Cape vs still being in VAFB. We will know soon if it shows up on L28 on 26 May.
If it is at the Cape then

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1370400469479161860

There are dozens of pictures of B1063 being moved in March. In fact you posted on that subject:

With this progress looks like arrival possible at the Cape tomorrow.

If they are going in the direction you believe. Looks to be headed down to 98 and then to possibly 27 then through Ocala and skirt Orlando area possibly on the North side.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

My doubts have been fueled by the fact that the supposedly 1063 arrived on or about 17 March at the Cape. That was 2 months ago. It may have needed more than normal processing for some reason. Or just was SpaceX's hole card.

With 6 boosters in general rotation then launching an average of 4 times a month should not be difficult. If this next booster that comes out of McGregor. No evidence yet of a booster there though. Is then shipped to VAFB. Then VAFB could start it's monthly launches probably in August not the planned July as SpaceX's Shotwell statement over a month ago.

[Jakusb]

...There is still in my mind at least as to whether 1063 is really at the Cape vs still being in VAFB. We will know soon if it shows up on L28 on 26 May.
If it is at the Cape then

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1370400469479161860

There are dozens of pictures of B1063 being moved in March. In fact you posted on that subject:

With this progress looks like arrival possible at the Cape tomorrow.

If they are going in the direction you believe. Looks to be headed down to 98 and then to possibly 27 then through Ocala and skirt Orlando area possibly on the North side.

We saw an anonymous booster. AFAIK there was no explicit core number painted on it.
Still all signs seem to confirm it is at the Cape.
But there seems no good obvious reason for it to take so long to prepare for launch.

[scr00chy]

But there seems no good obvious reason for it to take so long to prepare for launch.

Well, it was missing a bunch of engines. That could explain why it took longer to prepare it.

[wannamoonbase]

Looks like the Manifest is ready to have more Starlink missions added to the upcoming flights.

Today’s flight finishes the first shell, so maybe there is some kind of pause, or transition to the next version of satellite.  But that doesn’t seem like SpaceX. 

They have so many to put up I just expect them to keep launching vehicles at every opportunity.

[Jansen]

Looks like the Manifest is ready to have more Starlink missions added to the upcoming flights.

There are 2-3 Starlink launch opportunities in June, but the schedule is already pretty busy. Could see 5 or 6 launches with all the available boosters.

[StraumliBlight]

SpaceX will launch 10 satellites for Chile's government.

"The project considers putting the Fasat Delta, Fasat Echo 1 and Fasat Echo 2 satellites in space between 2021 and 2024. The other 7 smaller satellites, between 12 and 13 kilos, will be launched as follows: one in 2023, three in 2024 and three in 2025."

https://www.radioagricultura.cl/nacional/2021/05/26/chile-lanzara-10-satelites-space-x-los-pondra-en-orbita.html

[Jansen]

SpaceX will launch 10 satellites for Chile's government.

"The project considers putting the Fasat Delta, Fasat Echo 1 and Fasat Echo 2 satellites in space between 2021 and 2024. The other 7 smaller satellites, between 12 and 13 kilos, will be launched as follows: one in 2023, three in 2024 and three in 2025."

https://www.radioagricultura.cl/nacional/2021/05/26/chile-lanzara-10-satelites-space-x-los-pondra-en-orbita.html

Sounds like they will all be on rideshares:

The project includes three mini-satellites weighing less than 100kg each, and another seven micro-satellites, at 12-13 kg each. The launches will be carried out by SpaceX.

https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/chile-set-for-blast-off-with-10-satellite-plan

[Comga]

SpaceX has done a record 35 successful launches within the past 12 months.
(This remains true for only a day, but it is a new record.)
They just set a record at 30 back on April 7.

[wannamoonbase]

Looks like the Manifest is ready to have more Starlink missions added to the upcoming flights.

There are 2-3 Starlink launch opportunities in June, but the schedule is already pretty busy. Could see 5 or 6 launches with all the available boosters.

I think they will squeeze in Starlink flights, just to get the boosters back on land and into the next cycle.  I think we’ll see attempts at 5 flights in June.

Keep the boosters flying, that’s the key to cheaper access to space!

[zubenelgenubi]

Apologies if this has been answered recently:
Is there any indication that SpaceX will continue Starship/Superheavy work at LC-39A in the coming months?  (Asking with respect to the launch schedule.)

[Jansen]

Apologies if this has been answered recently:
Is there any indication that SpaceX will continue Starship/Superheavy work at LC-39A in the coming months?  (Asking with respect to the launch schedule.)

There is no indication that any possible Starship construction will interfere with the launch schedule.

[zubenelgenubi]

Apologies if this has been answered recently:
Is there any indication that SpaceX will continue Starship/Superheavy work at LC-39A in the coming months?  (Asking with respect to the launch schedule.)

There is no indication that any possible Starship construction will interfere with the launch schedule.

Barring mishaps, the Falcon 9 Space Coast launches can continue full-throttle!

[wannamoonbase]

Apologies if this has been answered recently:
Is there any indication that SpaceX will continue Starship/Superheavy work at LC-39A in the coming months?  (Asking with respect to the launch schedule.)

There is no indication that any possible Starship construction will interfere with the launch schedule.

Barring mishaps, the Falcon 9 Space Coast launches can continue full-throttle!

Agreed, there appears to be enough boosters available and Starlink and Commercial launches on the manifest to really keep pumping out the launches.

However, having lived in Central Florida in the past, we are enter the summer weather season and we can start expecting weather issues for launch and recovery coming up.

[zubenelgenubi]

Hypothetical near-term Falcon 9 schedule:

June 3 - SpX-22 - KSC LC-39A - OCISLY recovery (June 3 successful)

June 6 - SXM-8 - CCSFS SLC-40 - JRTI recovery (June 6 successful)

overnight June 11/12 - OCISLY departs for the Pacific (via Neopanamax Panama Canal) to support NET July 70 deg orbital inclination Starlink launches from VSFB.  Perhaps the recent activity off-shore of Cape Canaveral is to support this?
Update June 6: Because the barge wings do not need removal, OCISLY should be able to proceed directly to the 1st stage recovery area.
Update June 12: OCISLY departure

June 17 - GPS III-5 - CCSFS SLC-40 - JRTI recovery (June 17 successful)

late June 25 24 - Transporter-2 - CCSFS SLC-40 - RTLS recovery (corrected)

early July - Starlink v1.0 Flight 29 - Cape - JRTI recovery

July - Starlink launches continue from the Cape from either LC at a pace supportable by JTRI.

NET July - Starlink cluster, size TBD - VSFB SLC-4E - OCISLY recovery.  (Vandenberg Starlink launches continue at an approximate pace of once per month.)

?? - ASOG joins JRTI in Florida > Falcon 9 Cape launches "pedal to the metal"

Changes June 3
Changes June 6
Changes June 7
Changes June 12
Changes June 17th
Changes June 18th

[wannamoonbase]

With a fast start to June with the 3rd and 6th, it looks like there is a slot before the GPS launch on the 17th for a Starlink flight.

Also another possible window between the 17th and Transporter 2.

On the face of it, there looks like room for 6 flights in June.  Which sounds completely insane, but also possible.

If OCISLY does make a run for the West Coast soon, I can see SpaceX trying to squeeze out another 1 or 2 launches on it quickly before packing up and heading West.

[Zed_Noir]

Maybe SpaceX will keep OCISLY on the East coast and just launch reduce Starlink stacks from Vandenberg that will allow Return to Launch Site for the Falcon 9 cores.


SpaceX need a minimum of two available drone ships if they want to maintain their launch rate. Which is dicey with only two drone ships station on the East coast.

[crandles57]

For people excited for 5 or 6 launches in June and continuing rapid pace, how do you interpret this:

But the launch of the 60 newest Starlinks Wednesday could be the last dedicated Starlink mission to take off from Florida’s Space Coast, at least for a while. The next Falcon 9 rocket fully loaded with Starlink satellites is scheduled to launch in July from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/05/28/five-launches-planned-from-floridas-space-coast-in-june/

Will take a while for asds to get to Vandenberg, looking late July or even August for next Starlink from West coast. Quote therefore seems to imply no Florida starlink launches in at least June and July.

So what is SpaceX going to launch in July and August?
A polar starlink in each of July and August, and CRS-23. Just 3 launches is 2 months?

That would seem surprisingly low.

Is that quote just unduly pessimistic and starlink missions from Florida will continue in July and August after just a brief break in June for 4 non starlink launches? (Perhaps at reduced rate while only 1 ASDS on East coast.)

[Jansen]

For people excited for 5 or 6 launches in June and continuing rapid pace, how do you interpret this:

But the launch of the 60 newest Starlinks Wednesday could be the last dedicated Starlink mission to take off from Florida’s Space Coast, at least for a while. The next Falcon 9 rocket fully loaded with Starlink satellites is scheduled to launch in July from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/05/28/five-launches-planned-from-floridas-space-coast-in-june/

Will take a while for asds to get to Vandenberg, looking late July or even August for next Starlink from West coast. Quote therefore seems to imply no Florida starlink launches in at least June and July.

So what is SpaceX going to launch in July and August?
A polar starlink in each of July and August, and CRS-23. Just 3 launches is 2 months?

That would seem surprisingly low.

Is that quote just unduly pessimistic and starlink missions from Florida will continue in July and August after just a brief break in June for 4 non starlink launches? (Perhaps at reduced rate while only 1 ASDS on East coast.)

Starlink missions are often short notice and based on opportunities that open up, like the delays with SXM-8 that allowed for L28.

Just because there isn’t anything currently shared with the media doesn’t mean that they won’t add one or two missions.

I’m increasingly leaning towards a west coast drone ship that is already converted or being converted, beside the one that was spotted in Louisiana. I laid out some of my thoughts here, but the short timeframe for  the Panama transit required looks really tight for a July launch.

Operations on the Eastern Range have been constrained by ASDS availability. SpaceX would’ve been aware of this and taken steps to address that. The planned reuse for Falcon Heavy next year also points towards the necessity for a fourth droneship.

It makes sense considering that Elon originally tweeted about ASOG in 2018. If the plan was to have a droneship operating in the west coast, then the introduction would be delayed when Vandenberg fell out of favour. Elon’s recent tweets about ASOG also coincided with job postings for west coast recovery operations.

Nothing conclusive yet unless someone spots something in a west coast port, but I’m not sure anybody has been looking in the right places.