SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread

[Jansen]

Seems it would be a benefit to SpaceX to keep a NASA booster for NASA.  Eventually it goes into open circulation.  Same as DOD.

That's a big stamp of approval though, impressive.

Edit: I wonder if those turbine wheels ended up in another Merlin.

It does appear to be a reflight limit of 1 for now, but it could change.

I wonder if that’s why B1063 hasn’t done a Starlink launch yet. They’re going to use B1061 for general launches instead after this launch, and use 1063 for one more NASA launch.

Edit: Possibly B1063.2 for CRS-23 in August? Then B1067.2 for Crew-3 in October would make sense after it launches CRS-22 in June.

[cppetrie]

Seems it would be a benefit to SpaceX to keep a NASA booster for NASA.  Eventually it goes into open circulation.  Same as DOD.

That's a big stamp of approval though, impressive.

Edit: I wonder if those turbine wheels ended up in another Merlin.

It does appear to be a reflight limit of 1 for now, but it could change.

I wonder if that’s why B1063 hasn’t done a Starlink launch yet. They’re going to use B1061 for general launches instead after this launch, and use 1063 for one more NASA launch.

Edit: Possibly B1063.2 for CRS-23 in August? Then B1067.2 for Crew-3 in October would make sense after it launches CRS-22 in June.

I took the limit on single reflights to be applicable only to crew launches not cargo.

[SMS]

https://twitter.com/SpaceNosey/status/1385622970140332035

[smoliarm]

Seems it would be a benefit to SpaceX to keep a NASA booster for NASA.  Eventually it goes into open circulation.  Same as DOD.

That's a big stamp of approval though, impressive.

Edit: I wonder if those turbine wheels ended up in another Merlin.

It does appear to be a reflight limit of 1 for now, but it could change.

I wonder if that’s why B1063 hasn’t done a Starlink launch yet. They’re going to use B1061 for general launches instead after this launch, and use 1063 for one more NASA launch.

Edit: Possibly B1063.2 for CRS-23 in August? Then B1067.2 for Crew-3 in October would make sense after it launches CRS-22 in June.

I took the limit on single reflights to be applicable only to crew launches not cargo.

Yes, the booster B1058.4 was used for CRS launch for NASA:
B1058.4 ... 2020-093 ... Dec 06, 2020 ... F9 FT b.5 ... Dragon v2 SpX-21

So it looks like there is no "reflight limit of 1", at least for Cargo Dragons.

[ZachF]

So far this year SpaceX has put up ~61% of the world's adjusted tonnage to orbit, and ~57% of the world's people

SpaceX is on track to put up ~500,000kg of adjusted tonnage this year, equal to ULA's 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 totals combined.

[smoliarm]

So far this year SpaceX has put up ~61% of the world's adjusted tonnage to orbit, and ~57% of the world's people

SpaceX is on track to put up ~500,000kg of adjusted tonnage this year, equal to ULA's 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 totals combined.

Thanks a lot for sharing!
Could you tell (briefly) how do you calculate DV-adjusted tonnage?

[Blackjax]

So far this year SpaceX has put up ~61% of the world's adjusted tonnage to orbit, and ~57% of the world's people

SpaceX is on track to put up ~500,000kg of adjusted tonnage this year, equal to ULA's 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 totals combined.

Awesome table, I'd love to know where you get the data from.  I'd been unsuccessfully looking for something like that a few years ago when I was trying to compare payload capacity of a single starship flying once a month per year to the yearly world demand for launch capacity.

[Jansen]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/fcc-votes-approve-spacex-satellite-plan-official-2021-04-27/

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) said on Tuesday it had voted to approve a SpaceX plan to deploy some Starlink satellites at a lower earth orbit than planned as part of its push to offer space-based broadband internet.

Elon Musk's SpaceX had asked the FCC for approval to fly 2,824 satellites at a lower orbit as part of the plan to provide high-speed broadband internet services to people who currently lack access.

It’ll be interesting to see which flights will start deploying to the 570km orbit. All of the currently approved launches have the same flight and recovery plans.

[Jansen]

The pace of Starlink launches has slowed noticeably below their capacity. I’m assuming it will pick up again now that they have approval for all those additional satellites.

[freddo411]

The pace of Starlink launches has slowed noticeably below their capacity. I’m assuming it will pick up again now that they have approval for all those additional satellites.

Seems like SpaceX assumes a bit of a "quiet period" around the Crew2 launches  ( including both Falcon and Starship ops ).    Perhaps this is to focus the company, perhaps it's to avoid alarming NASA, perhaps it's got roots in media/PR strategy.

[wannamoonbase]

The pace of Starlink launches has slowed noticeably below their capacity. I’m assuming it will pick up again now that they have approval for all those additional satellites.

Is that a real slow down, or just booster availability and the Crew-2 gap?

I expect that Starlink is going to be about once a week in May until there is a booster shortage.

[klod]

The pace of Starlink launches has slowed noticeably below their capacity. I’m assuming it will pick up again now that they have approval for all those additional satellites.

Is that a real slow down, or just booster availability and the Crew-2 gap?

I expect that Starlink is going to be about once a week in May until there is a booster shortage.

TO time for droneship - 7-10 days. That would be a limiting factor.

[gongora]

NASA has given SpaceX authority to proceed with the PCM-5 (Crew-5) mission, which should be either Fall 2022 or Spring 2023.

[vaporcobra]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/fcc-votes-approve-spacex-satellite-plan-official-2021-04-27/

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) said on Tuesday it had voted to approve a SpaceX plan to deploy some Starlink satellites at a lower earth orbit than planned as part of its push to offer space-based broadband internet.

Elon Musk's SpaceX had asked the FCC for approval to fly 2,824 satellites at a lower orbit as part of the plan to provide high-speed broadband internet services to people who currently lack access.

It’ll be interesting to see which flights will start deploying to the 570km orbit. All of the currently approved launches have the same flight and recovery plans.

They'll start with dedicated polar launches, though SpaceX will presumably continue deploying around ~280 km and just tack an extra few days onto the existing orbit raising schedule. There will be 3168 satellites between 540 and 550 km (half at 53, other half at 53.2 degrees). The other 1240 will be split between 70 and 97.6 degrees and 560, 569, or 570 km.

[Jansen]

https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/04/29/spacex-launches-60-more-starlink-spacecraft-fcc-clears-spacex-to-fly-satellites-at-lower-altitudes/

The updated Starlink network architecture has 1,584 satellites at 341 miles (550 kilometers) altitude and an inclination of 53 degrees, 1,584 satellites at 335 miles (540 kilometers) and an inclination of 53.2 degrees, 720 satellites at 354 miles (570 kilometers) and an inclination of 70 degrees, and 520 satellites at 348 miles (560 kilometers) and an inclination of 97.6 degrees.

To clarify, 2824 new satellites approved:

1,584 satellites at 540 km and inclination of 53.2 degrees

720 satellites at 570 km and inclination of 70 degrees

520 satellites at 560 km and inclination of 97.6 degrees

[mandrewa]

The pace of Starlink launches has slowed noticeably below their capacity. I’m assuming it will pick up again now that they have approval for all those additional satellites.

I think they've been going just as fast as they can.  At this point the Starlink satellites are being launched by just four boosters, 1049, 1051, 1058, and 1060.  Booster 1060 is amazing in that it has launched in each of the last four months, but the turnaround times on booster 1049 are much longer with the most recent being 100 days.  That's either because there is something different about 1049, perhaps because it is the oldest, or maybe because it is being studied more because it was a life leader. 

But there's no longer much to distinguish between these boosters in terms of the number of times they have been launched.  It's 8, 9, 7, and 7 launches respectively for 1049, 1051, 1058, and 1060.

[Huskymaniac]

https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/04/29/spacex-launches-60-more-starlink-spacecraft-fcc-clears-spacex-to-fly-satellites-at-lower-altitudes/

The updated Starlink network architecture has 1,584 satellites at 341 miles (550 kilometers) altitude and an inclination of 53 degrees, 1,584 satellites at 335 miles (540 kilometers) and an inclination of 53.2 degrees, 720 satellites at 354 miles (570 kilometers) and an inclination of 70 degrees, and 520 satellites at 348 miles (560 kilometers) and an inclination of 97.6 degrees.

To clarify, 2824 new satellites approved:

1,584 satellites at 540 km and inclination of 53.2 degrees

720 satellites at 570 km and inclination of 70 degrees

520 satellites at 560 km and inclination of 97.6 degrees

Would love to know when they plan to do their first launch from Vandenberg.

[wannamoonbase]

https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/04/29/spacex-launches-60-more-starlink-spacecraft-fcc-clears-spacex-to-fly-satellites-at-lower-altitudes/

The updated Starlink network architecture has 1,584 satellites at 341 miles (550 kilometers) altitude and an inclination of 53 degrees, 1,584 satellites at 335 miles (540 kilometers) and an inclination of 53.2 degrees, 720 satellites at 354 miles (570 kilometers) and an inclination of 70 degrees, and 520 satellites at 348 miles (560 kilometers) and an inclination of 97.6 degrees.

To clarify, 2824 new satellites approved:

1,584 satellites at 540 km and inclination of 53.2 degrees

720 satellites at 570 km and inclination of 70 degrees

520 satellites at 560 km and inclination of 97.6 degrees

Would love to know when they plan to do their first launch from Vandenberg.

I thought there was previous information that the Vandenberg launches would start in the middle of this year, July I believe.

I'm curious if they are going to do RTLS flights with less satellites, or if they are going for a full load and ASDS recovery.

[gongora]

I doubt they'll do RTLS for Starlink.  All signs point to having a west coast droneship soon.  I also don't think they'll deploy one shell at a time.  Vandenberg will most likely have a much slower flight rate than Florida.  They can put up a lot of the SSO sats from Vandy while deploying the other shells from Florida.

[Nomadd]

 Can they keep on orbit spares in addition to the 4408 approved in service sats?