Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 466965 times)

Offline SMS

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #300 on: 04/07/2021 05:26 pm »
« Last Edit: 04/07/2021 05:31 pm by SMS »
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #301 on: 04/07/2021 06:00 pm »
https://twitter.com/SpaceNosey/status/1379846832919023617
These are really great charts. So information dense.
The label hexagons have all shades of blue-grey from white to navy, uniform for each booster but different for different boosters.
What is the significance of this color?
The out-of-service boosters on the left are grey but so is 1060 on the right.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #302 on: 04/10/2021 06:55 pm »
The Biden administration just released its 2022 discretionary budget request. If approved by Congress, it would fund a whole series of launches for NASA, including Artemis and the ISS.

Specifically the Dragonfly, Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and Europa Clipper are all expected to be awarded Falcon Heavy launches.

Quote
National Aeronautics and Space Administration

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) inspires the Nation by sending astronauts and robotic missions to explore the solar system, advancing understanding of the Earth and space, and developing new technologies and approaches to improve aviation and space activities. The 2022 discretionary request invests in developing new technologies to improve the Nation’s space and sustainable aviation capabilities; human and robotic exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond, including returning Martian rocks and soil to earth; and development of Earth-observing satellites that would produce breakthrough science and support the Nation’s efforts to address climate change.
The President’s 2022 discretionary request includes $24.7 billion for NASA, a $1.5 billion or 6.3-percent increase from the 2021 enacted level. It:
 Supports Human Exploration of the Moon, Mars, and Beyond. The discretionary request provides $6.9 billion, an increase of $325 million above the 2021 enacted level, for the Artemis program, a series of crewed exploration missions to the lunar surface and beyond. This funding supports the development of capabilities for sustainable, long- duration human exploration beyond Earth, and eventually to Mars.
 Furthers the Robotic Exploration of the Solar System and the Universe. Following the successful landing of the Perseverance rover on Mars, the discretionary request funds the Mars Sample Return mission, the first mission to transport Martian soil samples back to Earth. The discretionary request also supports the Clipper mission to explore Jupiter’s icy moon Europa, the Dragonfly mission to fly a drone-like rotorcraft on Saturn’s largest moon Titan, and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope to build on the discoveries of the Hubble and James Webb space telescopes.
 Enhances Research and Development at NASA. The discretionary request increases funding for NASA’s Space Technology research and development portfolio to
$1.4 billion, a $325 million increase above the 2021 enacted level. With this investment, the program would enhance the capabilities and reduce the costs of the full range of NASA missions and provide new technologies to help the commercial space industry grow. In addition, the discretionary request encourages novel early-stage space technology research that would support the development of clean energy. The discretionary request also provides $915 million, an increase of $86 million above the 2021 enacted level, for Aeronautics research and development that would enhance U.S. competitiveness in the global aviation industry that employs hundreds of thousands of Americans. This increased funding would broaden and accelerate the testing of technologies that would enable highly efficient, next-generation airliners.
 Advances Climate Science. NASA uses the unique vantage point of space to enhance understanding of Earth systems and to observe the effects of climate change. The discretionary request provides $2.3 billion for Earth Science programs, an increase of $250 million above the 2021 enacted level, to initiate the next generation of Earth- observing satellites to study pressing climate science questions.
 Builds a Diverse Future Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Workforce. The discretionary request provides a $20 million, or 16 percent, increase for the Office of STEM Engagement to expand initiatives to attract and retain underserved and underrepresented students in engineering and other STEM fields, in partnership with minority serving institutions and other higher education institutions.
 Continues Research on the International Space Station (ISS). The discretionary request provides more than $3 billion to operate the ISS and use it as a research laboratory in space. ISS funding would support space station operations, cargo and crew transportation, and research that benefits the exploration of space and life on Earth.
« Last Edit: 04/10/2021 07:00 pm by Jansen »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #303 on: 04/11/2021 10:44 pm »
In trying to figure out what is possible for launches after Crew 2.

LC-40:
 4-25 (NET) but NLT 4-28   L24
 5-4 (NET) but NLT 5-7       L25
 5-18                                 L27
 6-1 (NET)                         SXM

LC-39A
 5-6 but NLT 5-9                L26
 5-21                                L27
 6-3                                  CRS2 SPX-22  (Likely uses 1061.3)

If CRS22 uses 1061.3 then there are no foreseeable booster availability problems until later into last of June.

Launch counts of 3 for Apr, 4 for May, and a possible another 4 or even an eake out a 5th one for June.
This availability of boosters though depends on 1063 being introduced into the Que later this month. More launches may not happen in April because of asset and range conflicts with Crew 2.

I see another potential phenomena occurring and that is a cycling between 4/5 launches in a month to 3 the following month out of the cape (East coast). This is due to 3 booster being able to launch every 27/28 days and 2 at 35+ days. Things are unlikely to line up to have a steady 4 launches every month but an oscillation.

Also as far as VAFB launches and the possible Starlink launches in July. There doesn't seem to be a booster problem if the next booster 1067 is shipped to VAFB. With it supposedly at McGregor and a 30 day gin up after shipping. It should be ready for use with a month to spare.

On booster production. 6 boosters were produced and tested in 2020. So far only 2 known 1066 and 1067 yet this year 2021. Such that it is likely that by July another booster will go into testing at McGregor (1068). This one would be just in time for use by Inspiration 4. And then by Crew 3 after that ~3 months later in November. It is likely that the next booster production start (1069) may await the successful landing or not of the FH core and it's successful return to the facilities at the cape. Such that the booster could be made as another FH core vs a regular F9. Past this point too many variables to even make intelligible guesses.



Starship: A side item is that with a possible Orbital Test Demo flight NET July. I would actually believe Aug or Sept a more likely launch date. That is because of the pad construction as well as the FCC EPA review completion and Licencing needed. But We may be surprised. As far as an SS available for a trip to orbit there is not much concern that one would be ready by 1 July. The primary for vehicles is the testing of the SH which include the construction of the first and probably second flight article availability.

To put it short. Start thinking about the addition of SS Orbital Demo test flight to the Manifest with a July 21-07 NET date. It can be reviewed once a month to move it out or or not depending on circumstances.

Offline PM3

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #304 on: 04/12/2021 12:41 pm »
Launch counts of 3 for Apr, 4 for May, and a possible another 4 or even an eake out a 5th one for June.

This would require additional Starlink FCC licenses (see Spacenews, 7 April). Current licenses allow 1584 sats in 550 km inclined orbits and 10 sats in polar orbits. 1376 of 550 km inclined sats and 10 polar sats are already up there. So without additional licenses, only 4 more Starlink launches.

Quote
Starship: A side item is that with a possible Orbital Test Demo flight NET July. I would actually believe Aug or Sept a more likely launch date.

The NET July goal was published by Elon on 17 March, i.e. 105 days in advance. Translated to real time this is >= 210 days, which means NET mid October.
« Last Edit: 04/12/2021 04:13 pm by PM3 »
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #305 on: 04/12/2021 06:37 pm »
Launch counts of 3 for Apr, 4 for May, and a possible another 4 or even an eake out a 5th one for June.

This would require additional Starlink FCC licenses (see Spacenews, 7 April). Current licenses allow 1584 sats in 550 km inclined orbits and 10 sats in polar orbits. 1376 of 550 km inclined sats and 10 polar sats are already up there. So without additional licenses, only 4 more Starlink launches.

Quote
Starship: A side item is that with a possible Orbital Test Demo flight NET July. I would actually believe Aug or Sept a more likely launch date.

The NET July goal was published by Elon on 17 March, i.e. 105 days in advance. Translated to real time this is >= 210 days, which means NET mid October.
As for the Starlink FCC licenses allowing launch into an operational altitude of 550km there is 45 days to resolve before the 5th launch from now in the end of May. There are currently FCC licencesse modifications pending FCC approval and have been for some time. 3 of those 4 approved 550km sat deployments remaining are needed to fulfill the coverage to bring the constellation to a minimum of operational status. It is always possible to just start parking sats at the higher orbit allowed (for which there exists a FCC license) and await approvals for a lower orbit FCC license then move them. They do not have to stop launching. The primary constraints on deployment speed is the max launch per month. If you stop launching Starlinks and you are already at the max launch rate possible there is no way to make up for the pause when latter you start back up.

So do not assume that Starlink launches will stop just because the lower 550km altitude license modification has not been approved.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #306 on: 04/12/2021 06:42 pm »
As for the Starlink FCC licenses allowing launch into an operational altitude of 550km there is 45 days to resolve before the 5th launch from now in the end of May. There are currently FCC licencesse modifications pending FCC approval and have been for some time. 3 of those 4 approved 550km sat deployments remaining are needed to fulfill the coverage to bring the constellation to a minimum of operational status. It is always possible to just start parking sats at the higher orbit allowed (for which there exists a FCC license) and await approvals for a lower orbit FCC license then move them. They do not have to stop launching. The primary constraints on deployment speed is the max launch per month. If you stop launching Starlinks and you are already at the max launch rate possible there is no way to make up for the pause when latter you start back up.

So do not assume that Starlink launches will stop just because the lower 550km altitude license modification has not been approved.

The modified constellation also has different inclinations (anywhere from .6deg to 17deg), and SpaceX really doesn't want to have them climb to 1000km and then back down.  The number of sats per launch would go down to accommodate higher fuel loads.
« Last Edit: 04/12/2021 06:43 pm by gongora »

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #307 on: 04/12/2021 06:56 pm »
As for the Starlink FCC licenses allowing launch into an operational altitude of 550km there is 45 days to resolve before the 5th launch from now in the end of May. There are currently FCC licencesse modifications pending FCC approval and have been for some time. 3 of those 4 approved 550km sat deployments remaining are needed to fulfill the coverage to bring the constellation to a minimum of operational status. It is always possible to just start parking sats at the higher orbit allowed (for which there exists a FCC license) and await approvals for a lower orbit FCC license then move them. They do not have to stop launching. The primary constraints on deployment speed is the max launch per month. If you stop launching Starlinks and you are already at the max launch rate possible there is no way to make up for the pause when latter you start back up.

So do not assume that Starlink launches will stop just because the lower 550km altitude license modification has not been approved.

The modified constellation also has different inclinations (anywhere from .6deg to 17deg), and SpaceX really doesn't want to have them climb to 1000km and then back down.  The number of sats per launch would go down to accommodate higher fuel loads.
NOTE is that these are all V1.0 sats and are likely to be obsolete and may even be deorbited early in 2 or 3 years. Such that no changes . No extra prop. Just use the the existing design as is and deorbit these early. As they runn out of prop. Also due to higher orbit these use significantly less orbit maintenance prop. The V1.0 were designed for high orbit maintenance prop use. So there may not be much of a problem.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #308 on: 04/12/2021 07:51 pm »
NOTE is that these are all V1.0 sats and are likely to be obsolete and may even be deorbited early in 2 or 3 years. Such that no changes . No extra prop. Just use the the existing design as is and deorbit these early. As they runn out of prop. Also due to higher orbit these use significantly less orbit maintenance prop. The V1.0 were designed for high orbit maintenance prop use. So there may not be much of a problem.

There has to be extra fuel for satellites going to the higher altitude.  The current prop load is to maximize the number of satellites they can launch to 550km and still recover the booster.  There is no reason for them to replace v1.0 satellites in a couple years.  That would be very expensive.

Offline Nomadd

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #309 on: 04/12/2021 08:14 pm »
NOTE is that these are all V1.0 sats and are likely to be obsolete and may even be deorbited early in 2 or 3 years. Such that no changes . No extra prop. Just use the the existing design as is and deorbit these early. As they runn out of prop. Also due to higher orbit these use significantly less orbit maintenance prop. The V1.0 were designed for high orbit maintenance prop use. So there may not be much of a problem.

There has to be extra fuel for satellites going to the higher altitude.  The current prop load is to maximize the number of satellites they can launch to 550km and still recover the booster.  There is no reason for them to replace v1.0 satellites in a couple years.  That would be very expensive.
It might depend on how they transition to ISL.
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #310 on: 04/13/2021 01:19 pm »
https://spacenews.com/astrobotic-selects-falcon-heavy-to-launch-nasas-viper-lunar-rover/

Well that explains the Going to the Moon tweet.

More Falcon Heavy’s is always a good thing.
Starship, Vulcan and Ariane 6 have all reached orbit.  New Glenn, well we are waiting!

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Online Steven Pietrobon

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Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #313 on: 04/16/2021 05:54 pm »
https://spacenews.com/nasa-delays-starting-contract-with-spacex-for-gateway-cargo-services/
Quote
NASA, in a statement provided to SpaceNews April 14, said it has yet to formally authorize SpaceX to proceed on the Gateway Logistics Services contract because the agency is studying the overall schedule of the Artemis lunar exploration program, of which development and use of the Gateway is just one part.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #314 on: 04/16/2021 07:22 pm »
It’d make sense to shorten the initial stay on Gateway so logistics isn’t required for the first visit(s). Could save money to accelerate the lander portion, and this could be justified because the Starship lander could also do at least some logistics.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #315 on: 04/17/2021 03:29 am »
Since now that there are 2 Lunar Starship missions actually on contract for ~2023/2024/2025 time period. Should be possible to add a placeholder for the HLS Demo unmanned and HLS Demo manned missions?

Also add a placeholder for the tanker flights preceding but at this time do not know what the actual number may be which could be from 5 to as many as 10. Just that they would all take place just prior as fast as could be accomplished with the HLS launch immediately following. The tanker flights could be as a note as part of the same mission placeholder showing total flights related to the mission.

Offline SMS

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #316 on: 04/22/2021 07:27 am »
Crew Dragon Launch statistics (04/22/2021)
all times in GMT/UTC:
=
DM-2
Prime: = = = = =Dock = = = = = =MET (d:h:m:s)
(05/27/2020)
148:20:32:32? 149:15:29?   +0:18:56:28
148:20:33:31   149:15:39:55   +0:19:06:23
Backup #1
(05/30/2020)
152:19:22:45   153:14:16:00   +0:18:53:14
= =
Crew-1
Prime: = = = = =Dock = = = = = =MET (d:h:m:s)
(11/15/2020)
320:00:49:49   320:09:20:00   +0:08:30:10
Backup #1
(11/16/2020)
321:00:27:17   322:04:00:00   +1:03:32:42
= = =
Crew-2
Prime: = = = = =Dock = = = = = =MET (d:h:m:s)
(04/22/2021)
112:10:11:35   113:09:30:00   +0:23:18:25
112:10:11:45   113:11:05:00   +1:00:53:15?
Backup #1
(04/23/2021)
113:09:49:01   114:09:10:00   +0:23:20:59
Launch: 4/23 09:49:01 Dock: 4/24 09:10:00
Backup #2
(04/26/2021)
116:08:38:10   117:08:00:00   +0:23:21:50
Launch: 4/26 08:38:10 Dock: 4/27 08:00:00
Backup #3
(04/27/2021)
117:08:15:37   118:07:40:00   +23:24:23
Launch: 4/27 08:15:37 Dock: 4/28 07:40:00
= = = =
Any comments are welcome.
« Last Edit: 04/22/2021 08:38 am by SMS »
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Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #317 on: 04/23/2021 10:24 am »
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1385527271671226368

Quote
Was able to confirm with NASA that SpaceX now, essentially, chooses which rockets it will use from its fleet to launch astronauts. SpaceX can propose a new booster, or a first stage that has flown once. Further certification is needed for boosters used more than once.

This is a huge transfer of power, and opens up a lot of flexibility for SpaceX on the launch manifest.
« Last Edit: 04/23/2021 10:25 am by Jansen »

Offline SMS

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #318 on: 04/23/2021 12:35 pm »
Crew Dragon Launch statistics (04/22/2021)
all times in GMT/UTC:
=
DM-2
Prime: = = = = =Dock = = = = = =MET (d:h:m:s)
(05/27/2020)
148:20:32:32? 149:15:29?   +0:18:56:28
148:20:33:31   149:15:39:55   +0:19:06:23
Backup #1
(05/30/2020)
152:19:22:45   153:14:16:00   +0:18:53:14
= =
Crew-1
Prime: = = = = =Dock = = = = = =MET (d:h:m:s)
(11/15/2020)
320:00:49:49   320:09:20:00   +0:08:30:10
Backup #1
(11/16/2020)
321:00:27:17   322:04:00:00   +1:03:32:42
= = =
Crew-2
Prime: = = = = =Dock = = = = = =MET (d:h:m:s)
(04/22/2021)
112:10:11:35   113:09:30:00   +0:23:18:25
112:10:11:45   113:11:05:00   +1:00:53:15?
Backup #1
(04/23/2021)
113:09:49:01   114:09:10:00   +0:23:20:59
Launch: 4/23 09:49:01 Dock: 4/24 09:10:00
Backup #2
(04/26/2021)
116:08:38:10   117:08:00:00   +0:23:21:50
Launch: 4/26 08:38:10 Dock: 4/27 08:00:00
Backup #3
(04/27/2021)
117:08:15:37   118:07:40:00   +23:24:23
Launch: 4/27 08:15:37 Dock: 4/28 07:40:00
= = = =
Any comments are welcome.

Schedule Crew-2 Launch 113:09:49:02.100 ! and real time: ?
« Last Edit: 04/23/2021 12:42 pm by SMS »
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SMS ;-).

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #319 on: 04/23/2021 01:40 pm »
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1385527271671226368

Quote
Was able to confirm with NASA that SpaceX now, essentially, chooses which rockets it will use from its fleet to launch astronauts. SpaceX can propose a new booster, or a first stage that has flown once. Further certification is needed for boosters used more than once.

This is a huge transfer of power, and opens up a lot of flexibility for SpaceX on the launch manifest.

Seems it would be a benefit to SpaceX to keep a NASA booster for NASA.  Eventually it goes into open circulation.  Same as DOD.

That's a big stamp of approval though, impressive.

Edit: I wonder if those turbine wheels ended up in another Merlin.
« Last Edit: 04/23/2021 01:41 pm by wannamoonbase »
Starship, Vulcan and Ariane 6 have all reached orbit.  New Glenn, well we are waiting!

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